philippine daily inquirer briefing by malou tiquia

8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia

1/26

The Inquirer Briefing:Feasibility of a Fearless Forecast

Ms. Ma. Lourdes TiquiaFounder & General Manager


2/26

Briefing:

Feasibility of a Fearless

Forecast 26 days to go before May 10, 2010 Look at two sides of the coin

Political campaigns are all about numbers

Automation is an extraneous variable

Those who are ahead are so because of Air War

Those who are at the end are so because they havelimited money; ill-prepared or GMA tag

PGMA is not a lame duck president

The road to Malacanang has been changed!


3/26

Briefing:


Forecast 26 days to go before May 10, 2010

Character, organizational jumps and raidingwill define the last few days of the 2010

campaign. We will see tail enders making alast go (till the Fat Lady sings) and frontrunners canceling each other out in theprocess of trying to pull away.

If front runners engaged in mudslinging,voters will stay away from polls or anunderdog will have to be positioned.


4/26

Briefing:


Forecast Look at two sides of the coinIn this campaign, there are twosides of the proverbial coin thatmatters: surveys and the ground

war.Surveys is just a snap shot in apoint in time but is valuable interms of resource build up.

Ground war is crucial in termsof WOM and trait of voter(personal)


5/26

Briefing:


Forecast Political campaigns are allabout numbers, that coverscommand and market votes.

There are a total of more than85,000 candidates for only 17,000positions. A national candidatecovers 42,000 barangays, 1,495

municipalities, 136 charteredcities, 81 provinces in 17 regions.


6/26

Briefing:


Forecast Political campaigns are all aboutnumbers.

1. TRV = 48.3M

2. ETO = 74.5% or 35.9M

3. Votes to Win = 12.4M


7/26

Briefing:


Forecast Political campaigns are all aboutnumbers. If elections were heldtoday

AQUINO 17.9M

VILLAR 12.1M

ESTRADA 9.2MTEODORO 2.9M

GORDON 1.4M


8/26

Briefing:


Forecast Automation is an extraneousvariable

Time, Queues & Summer Heat

Back-to-Back 32 inch Ballot

One ballot per voter

One PCOS per 7 precinctsManual voting but automatedcounting & canvassing


9/26

Briefing:


ForecastThose who are ahead are so because ofAir War 1. Villar ranked 6th among Top 20advertisers for the First Quarter in 2010.

Villar spent Php1.23 Billion (up by6,575%) from Php18 Million in the 4thQuarter of 2009.2. Aquino ranked 11th at

Php526 Million in the 1st Quarter.3. Issue of paid for &

paid by


10/26

Briefing:


ForecastThose who are at the end are so because:1. Limited money to parlay into ads and pr

2. Ill-prepared: messaging, framing, positioning andorganizing

3. GMA factor (net satisfaction rating of -53%)


11/26

Briefing:


Forecast PGMA is not a lame duck president Allowed Erap to run

First incumbent president to run for Congress

Focused on the HOR than candidate forpresidency

Key appointments: DND, AFP, OES

Supreme Court

Controls IRA and PDAF releases Problems in automation (UV,

indelible ink, 30% manual)

Presidential Electoral Tribunal


12/26

Briefing:


ForecastThe road to Malacanang has been changed1. Supreme Court ruling on Peera changed natureof campaigning (prohibition attaches only duringcampaign period and not upon filing).

2. Villar air war offensive and saturated posteringcreated an impression of being No. 1.

3. Accomplishment and track recordhave been set aside in favor of anemotional brand.

4. To each his own; no party to relyon.


13/26

The Tipping Point

TheTipping Point is when Cory died and somewhere in thelabyrinth of the Liberal party saw the potential of an emotional

brand(a winning brand?) AQUINO.

As Gladwell said, Things can happen all at once, and little changescan make a huge difference

The virtue of an epidemic, after all, is that just a little input isenough to get it started, and it can spread very, very quickly.

The GladwellBarometer


14/26

BLINK Villar & Erap

BLINK is about rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking thathappens in a blink of an eye. When you meet someone for the first

time, or walk into a house you are thinking of buying, or read the firstfew sentences of a book, your mind takes about two seconds to jump

to a series of conclusions.



15/26

OUTLIERS Teodoro & Gordon

outliersin men and women who, for one reason or another, areso accomplished and so extraordinary and so outside of ordinary

experience that they are as puzzling to the rest of us ourunderstanding of success was really crudeis that we've been far

too focused on the individualon describing thecharacteristics and habits and personality traits of those whoget furthest ahead in the world. And that's the problem, because in

order to understand the outlier I think you have to lookaround themat their culture and community and family

and generation. We've been looking at tall trees, and I thinkwe should have been looking at the forest.



16/26

Aquino has leveled off from Jan-Mar; ahead ofVillar by 12% because Villar took a dive.Villars base is soft while Erap is steady


17/26

Aquino has leveled off in Feb-March; ahead ofVillar by 11% because Villar took a dive.Villars base is soft while Erap is steady


18/26

Aquino appears to be slipping Mar to Apr;ahead of Villar by 11% because Villar took adive in Feb and is leveling off in Mar and Apr..Villars base is soft while Erap is steady


19/26TH

EC H

AL

LE

NG

ES

Automationsystem

30% manual =Php10.7M

Undecided ranges

from 10-15%=3.6M to 5.4M

Viral propaganda:Internet and SMS

Turn-out of NewVoters (est.40%)


20/26

Oh I dont want to be so fearlessexcept to say that scenariobuildings are being made, as we

speak here


21/26Pro

ject

Arag

on

On PamumulitikaMore than half of Filipino Voters believe that

Ang pagsagot sa ibang paniniwala ay pamumulitika54% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon35% - Maarning sumang-ayon, maaring hindi20% - Medyo/Hindi sumasang-ayon

Ang pamumulitika ay patuloy na pagsasalita at pagbabatiksa kalaban

58% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon


22/26Pro

ject

Arag

on

On PamumulitikaMajority of Filipino voters believe that

Hindi nagiging mabuti ang pulitika kung maraming awayasa mga lider at nakakalimutan ang bayan

74% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon

17% - Maaring sumang-ayon, maaring hindi

8% - Medyo/hindi sumasang-ayon


23/26Car p

eDie

mIf mudslinging between Aquino & Villar

continues, they will cancel out eachother, opening the door for Erap. But

Erap has his own baggage.

At this point, voters will take a seriousand closer look at credentials, giving

Teodoro and Gordon the fightingchance.


24/26Car p

eDie

m If winning is a long shot for Erap andhe knows fully well that another

Estrada is prepositioning in 2016,2010 can be his window for

redemption by endorsing the leaderthe country truly needs.


25/26M

yfearle

ssfor

eca

st

Why Carpe Diem?

That is the Latin word for seize theday an admonition to enjoy thepresent, as opposed to placing all

hopes in the future


26/26

Thank

you.

philippine daily inquirer briefing by malou tiquia

Documents