phd_translog_ci_pro_dis_012104 research initial proposal gerard ibarra january 21, 2005 research...
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Research Initial Proposal
Gerard IbarraJanuary 21, 2005
Research Initial Proposal
Gerard IbarraJanuary 21, 2005
Update 2.0
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Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical Infrastructure
Disconnects in the Transportation and Logistics Critical InfrastructureResource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies Resource Allocation Modeling Based on Systems Engineering Methodologies
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
OutlineOutline
ObjectiveOverviewResearch ProcessFormulating the ModelBenefitsConclusion
ObjectiveOverviewResearch ProcessFormulating the ModelBenefitsConclusion
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
ObjectiveObjective
To develop a model based on SE methodologies and practices for assessing the critical infrastructure as a complex system-of-systems with respect to resource allocation for a Transportation Logistics Highway Vehicles (TLHV) terrorist attack
To develop a model based on SE methodologies and practices for assessing the critical infrastructure as a complex system-of-systems with respect to resource allocation for a Transportation Logistics Highway Vehicles (TLHV) terrorist attack
Should I narrow down to terrorist attack or keep withdisconnect?
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
ObjectiveObjective
To analyze performance, reliability, security, safety, risks, and impact of disruption due to terror attacks or natural events
To analyze performance, reliability, security, safety, risks, and impact of disruption due to terror attacks or natural events
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
SE Overview SE Overview
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
SE Definition SE Definition
Various Definitions ExistsState the problem; Investigate
alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re-evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner.1
Various Definitions ExistsState the problem; Investigate
alternatives; Model the system; Integrate; Launch the system; Assesses performance; and Re-evaluate (SIMILAR). The systems engineering process is not sequential. The functions are performed in a parallel and iterative manner.1
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Other SE Components Other SE Components
System-of-Systems InterdependenciesElements of a System2
ComponentsAttributesRelationships
System-of-Systems InterdependenciesElements of a System2
ComponentsAttributesRelationships
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
SE DescriptionSE Description
Top-down/Bottom-up
Life-cycle
Identification of System Requirements
TeamApproach
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Critical Infrastructure (CI) Overview
Critical Infrastructure (CI) Overview
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
CI History CI History
President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures3
Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63)
President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection report called for a national effort to assure the security of the United States' increasingly vulnerable and interconnected infrastructures3
Lead to the Presidential Decision Directive 63 (PDD63)
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Number of CIsNumber of CIs
There are 13 general CI defined by the Department of Homeland Security
There are 13 general CI defined by the Department of Homeland Security
1. Agriculture2. Banking and Finance3. Chem. Ind. & Haz Mat4. Defense Indus. Base5. Emergency Services6. Energy
7. Food8. Government9. Info. and Telecom.10.Postal and Shipping11.Public Health12.Transportation13.Water
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Other CIs Other CIs
Others include:SPAWAR – 10 with subsetsInfraGard of North Texas – 9
CI could also be specific to areaPort of Houston
Others include:SPAWAR – 10 with subsetsInfraGard of North Texas – 9
CI could also be specific to areaPort of Houston
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Common Property of CICommon Property of CI
All are complex collections of interacting components in which change often occurs as a result of learning process; that is, they are complex adaptive systems (CAS)4
All are complex collections of interacting components in which change often occurs as a result of learning process; that is, they are complex adaptive systems (CAS)4
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Trans/Log Overview Trans/Log Overview
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Importance of Trans/LogImportance of Trans/Log
“Transportation is one of the most important and increasingly complex infrastructure networks
of our modern society”5
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Transportation DefinitionTransportation Definition
A facility consisting of the means and equipment necessary for the movement of passengers or goods6
A facility consisting of the means and equipment necessary for the movement of passengers or goods6
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Logistics DefinitionLogistics Definition
That part of the supply chain process that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements7
That part of the supply chain process that plans, implements, and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and storage of goods, services, and related information between the point of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers' requirements7
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Single Source InformationSingle Source InformationCustomer
FinancialCustoms
Air
Freight FwdMotorRail
Ocean
Mfg
Information
Product/Material
Single SourceInformation
ConsolidatorDe-consolidator
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Trans/Log GDP Trans/Log GDP
Gross Domestic Product: 20038 Gross Domestic Product: 20038
8.5%
91.5%
Trans/Log All Other
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Trans/Log ModalsTrans/Log Modals
Airports/AircraftHighways/VehiclesPipelinesRailroads/TrainsWaterways/Vessels
Airports/AircraftHighways/VehiclesPipelinesRailroads/TrainsWaterways/Vessels
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Road Map to the Research ProcessRoad Map to the Research Process
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
State the Problem Develop CasePerform Risk
Analysis
Identify the Risk
Identify the Stakeholders
Categorize Risks Develop Model
Links
Results
Geograhical Interdependencies
Nodes
Algorithm / Simulation
In
Out
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
State the Problem Develop CasePerform Risk
Analysis
Identify the Risk
Identify the Stakeholders
Categorize Risks Develop Model
Links
Results
Geograhical Interdependencies
Nodes
Algorithm / Simulation
In
Out
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
State the ProblemState the Problem
Develop case for problem – research articles fromNewspapersMagazinesJournalsOther articles not elsewhere
classified (n.e.c.)
Develop case for problem – research articles fromNewspapersMagazinesJournalsOther articles not elsewhere
classified (n.e.c.)
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Identify RisksIdentify Risks
National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002
Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies
Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP)
Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview
National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Information Briefing on the Department of Defense (DOD) CI Protection, July 3, 2002
Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies
Hazard and Operations Analysis (HAZOP)
Synthesis – Research, Investigate, and Interview
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Identify RisksIdentify Risks
Assess TLHV’s Risk9 Assess TLHV’s Risk9
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Identify StakeholdersIdentify Stakeholders
Fuse Trans/Log Highways and Vehicles (TLHV) with the CI
Fuse Trans/Log Highways and Vehicles (TLHV) with the CI
Commuters
Distribution Centers
Utilities / P
ower Crews
Emergency Responders Airports
Water Ports
Bus and Rail Stations
DOD
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Categorize RisksCategorize Risks
Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS)
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)
Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)
Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS)
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)
Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD)
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Formulating the ModelFormulating the Model
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Formulate ModelFormulate Model
NodesLinksGeographical Interdependencies
NodesLinksGeographical Interdependencies
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Functional AnalysisFunctional Analysis
Perform Functional AnalysisPerform Functional Analysis
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Graphical RepresentationGraphical Representation
TINodes
Links
Geo. Inter.
i, j
RR
DTTR
i, j
DFW
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Assume Steady State
Simulation Flow DiagramSimulation Flow DiagramV
aria
bles
Likelihood
Input Outpu
Type ofDisconnect
Time ofDay
(n)Day ofWeek
Algorithm/Simulation
EstimatedCost
RiskFactor
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Adaptive ModelAdaptive Model
The likelihood of a disconnect changes with the state of the environment and time. Hence, the model requires minimal high-level inputs from the user in terms of the type and likelihood of disconnects that could occur. These inputs allow the model to become adaptive to the current environment and provide results that are more meaningful.
The likelihood of a disconnect changes with the state of the environment and time. Hence, the model requires minimal high-level inputs from the user in terms of the type and likelihood of disconnects that could occur. These inputs allow the model to become adaptive to the current environment and provide results that are more meaningful.
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Model FunctionModel Function
Type of DisconnectTerror Explosion Chemical Bio/HazardAccident Chemical Multiple Fatality Single Fatality Multiple Severe Injuries Severe Injury Minor Injury(s) Fender BenderNatural Disaster Earthquake Flooding Hurricane Tornado Severe WeatherOther Special Events Construction School Closings
Time of Day/Day of WkRush Hour AM PMHolliday New Years Easter Memorial Day 4th July Labor Day Thanks Giving ChristmasOther Morning Lunch Afternoon Evening Late Night Early Morning Day of Wk
VariablesGeographical Interdependencies Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports
CouplingRelationship of Impact
Power Lines Bridges Intersections Rail Lines DC Locations Water Ports Air Ports
sconstraint
bles varia..
ts
CostRiskMin
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Elements of the ModelElements of the Model
Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other
Temporal Range: The time of the incident
State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration
Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions
Geographical Interdependencies: Those CI that are within proximity of each other
Temporal Range: The time of the incident
State of Operation: Peak conditions, repair or restoration
Coupling: The linearity and complexity of the interactions
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Quantify and Rank RisksQuantify and Rank Risks
Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)
Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA)
Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management (RFRM)
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)Fault Tree (FT)Event Tree (ET)
StochasticBayesian AnalysisMarkov ChainMonte Carlo Simulation
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Estimate CostEstimate Cost
AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal
Highway ConstructionTime Delays
Goods to marketPersonal time
AccidentsNon fatal injuriesFatal
Highway ConstructionTime Delays
Goods to marketPersonal time
StochasticQueuing AnalysisReliability AnalysisMonte Carlo Simulation
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Model OutputModel Output
Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect
Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node
Economic Impact: The estimated Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area economic impact of a disconnect
Risk Factors: The estimated amount of risk at each link and node
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Metrics and ValidationMetrics and Validation
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
MetricsMetrics
Risk mitigationDiverting traffic before disconnectStrategically locating emergency
responders for obviating potential disconnects
Risk mitigationDiverting traffic before disconnectStrategically locating emergency
responders for obviating potential disconnects
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
MetricsMetrics
Descriptive of what occurs:Before disconnect After disconnect
Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs
Quantify affects after disconnect occurs
Descriptive of what occurs:Before disconnect After disconnect
Quantify critical nodes for resource deployment before disconnect occurs
Quantify affects after disconnect occurs
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
Validate ModelValidate Model
Test model – thresholdReplicate model in Houston
Test model – thresholdReplicate model in Houston
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
BenefitsBenefits
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PhD_TransLog_CI_Pro_Dis_012104
BenefitsBenefits
Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CIReduce resource wasteIncrease efficienciesAlign emergency plan based on
severity
Model for municipalities to use for resource allocation based on terrorist attacks on the Trans/Log CIReduce resource wasteIncrease efficienciesAlign emergency plan based on
severity
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BenefitsBenefits
Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack
Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system
Homeland Security Funding: Earmark funding to areas that pose greatest risk of a terrorist attack
Future Highway Designs: Compare new proposed highway design against model for minimizing risk and cost due to disconnects in system
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ConclusionConclusion
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ConclusionConclusion
Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity
CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependenciesAffects citizens’ way of lifeImpacts companies way of doing
businessExponentially growing in complexity10
Systems Engineering approach elevates the decision making process by considering the system versus an entity
CI is dynamic and intertwined with the system’s interdependenciesAffects citizens’ way of lifeImpacts companies way of doing
businessExponentially growing in complexity10
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ConclusionConclusion
Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDPPivotal for US and world economyFosters commerce
Trans/Log accounts for almost 9% of the US GDPPivotal for US and world economyFosters commerce
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ConclusionConclusion
SE
CriticalInfrastructures
Transportation/Logistics
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ConclusionConclusion
Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies
Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect
Provide a systematic approach for understanding and quantifying the Trans/Log CI and its Interdependencies
Develop Trans/Log CI framework to model resource allocation in an event of a disconnect
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FootnotesFootnotes
1. Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994).
2. Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28.
3. The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm.
4. Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.13.
5. George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations.
1. Inaugural issue, Systems Engineering, Journal of the International Council of Systems Engineering INCOSE, Seattle, WA (vol. 1, no. 1, July/September 1994).
2. Benjamin S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2004), p. 28.
3. The Whit House: Office of the Press Secretary, Fact Sheet, May 22, 1998. [Online]. Available at http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd-63.htm.
4. Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.13.
5. George Mason University, Systems Engineering Research and Operations.
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FootnotesFootnotes
6. Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University.
7. The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management)
8. Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004.
9. NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002.
10. Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.24.
6. Cognitive Science Laboratory, Princeton University.
7. The Michigan Roundtables (Council of Logistics Management)
8. Perry A. Trunick, How to Beat the High Cost of Shipping, Logistics Today, July, 2004.
9. NDIA Information Briefing. DoD Critical Infrastructure Protection, July 3, 2002.
10. Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, (IEEE Control System Magazine, December 2001), p.24.