pgp1 group c section #e365c

7/30/2019 PGP1 Group C Section #E365C

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FUJI FILM INTRODUCES APS

- A CASE STUDY

Subject: Quantitative Techniques IFaculty: Prof. U.K.BhattacharyaPresenters: Group C, Section C


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Agenda

Case Overview

Question 1 / 2 / 3:Factual AnalysisSolutionConclusion


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Case Overview

Fuji Film Advanced Photo System

Launch of 24 mm system in February 1996

Problems in market launch

Market Positioning and Customer Promotion

1998: 20% of APS market share


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Question 1: Factual Analysis

Facts2003: 40% expected market share

Sample Selection of 30 customers

QuestionsExpected APS customersProbability x 6 Given x 6, comment on market share


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Question 1: Solution

Expected no. of APS Customer:

No. of customers in the sample: n = 30Market share of APS: 40%Probability of a customer being an APS

customer: p = 0.4

=> Expected no. of APS customers in sample:n*p = 30*0.4 = 12 Customers


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Question 1: Plotx Probability(x)0 0.00001 0.00002 0.00003 0.0003

4 0.00125 0.00416 0.01157 0.02638 0.05059 0.0823

10 0.115211 0.1396

12 0.147413 0.136014 0.110115 0.078316 0.048917 0.026918 0.012919 0.0054

20 0.002021 0.000622 0.000223 0.000024 0.000025 0.000026 0.000027 0.0000

28 0.000029 0.0000

Binomial Distribution: n=30, p=0.4

0.0000

0.0200

0.0400

0.0600

0.0800

0.1000

0.1200

0.1400

0.1600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

x value


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Probability X 6:

P(X 6)=P(x=0)+ P(x=1)+ P(x=2)+ P(x=3)+P(x=4)+ P(x=5)+ P(x=6)

=> Probability of 6 or fewer customerspurchasing an APS camera

P(X 6) = 0.0172


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Given x 6, comment on market share:

Calculated Probability: P(X 6)=0.0172

This probability is not enough evidence to prove that theAPS market share is not 40%.

Reason: The probability value computed is based on only asingle instance of data sampling from the population.Hence it cannot be generalized using the concept of long-run average.


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Question 1: Conclusion

Expected no. of APS customers in sample:n*p = 30*0.4 = 12 Customers

Probability of 6 or fewer purchase of an APScamera P(X 6) = 0.0172

Given x 6, we cannot conclude that the

market share of APS camera is not 40%


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FactsCustomers complain on late shipment Customercomplaint at 2.4 complaints/100,000 rolls.

One batch of 100,000 yields 7 complaints

Questions

Has the average rate of complaints increased?Produce the Poisson distributionInterpret the results


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Question 2: Plot

Poisson Distribution : Lambada = 2.4

0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

0.2500

0.3000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17x value

x Probability(x)0 0.09071 0.2177

2 0.26133 0.20904 0.12545 0.06025 0.06026 0.0241

7 0.00838 0.00259 0.0007

10 0.000211 0.000012 0.0000

13 0.000014 0.000015 0.000016 0.000017 0.0000

P (x) = (e - . x ) / x!


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Has the average rate of complaint increased?

For x = 7, P(x) as per Poisson Distribution is 0.0083

Since the probability is very low, we cannot concludethat average rate of complaints has increased. Theoccurred event is a random occurrence.


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Facts52 products launchedObjective 1: Revenue growth - 34 productsObjective 2: Creation of Market / Customersatisfaction - 18 products10 successful products: 7 meet objective 2 while 3meet objective 1Premise (given): Objective 1 products have ahigher chance of failure than objective 2 products


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Question 3: Problem

Questions

Probability of the given result occurring by chance

Comment on the premise regarding theimportance of the main objective


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Question 3:Solution

Objective 1 Objective252 34 18

Success: 10 3 7

Failure: 42 31 11

According to Hypergeometric DistributionProbabilities,

P(x) =ACx . N-ACn-x / NCn


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Question 3:Solution contd..

P(x) =ACx . N-ACn-x / NCn

Here,N = 52 , n = 34, A = 10, x = 3

P(x=3) = 0.01203

So the probability of this event occurring bychance is 0.01203


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Question 3: Conclusion

The premise: Products aimed for revenuegrowth are more likely to fail than productsaimed to create a new market or customersatisfaction.The event:

ONLY 3 out of 34 products aimed for revenuegrowth succeed.AS MANY AS 7 out of 18 products aimed forcreating new market or achieving customersatisfaction succeed.


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Question 3: Conclusion contd..

The event is in alignment with the premisegiven in the problem

But the probability of the event is VERYLOW !Therefore, we cannot conclude that thepremise is true.Thus we cannot say that the average numberof complaints per batch has increased.

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