PG&E WaveConnectHumboldt

Working Group

December 2, 2009

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Humboldt Working Group (HWG) Groundrules

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• Participate in an active and focused manner – commit to process success.

• Interact with all other members respectfully.• Communicate interests, not positions. • Be brief in communications, and be prepared. • Help involve all.• Seek solutions for all.• Commit to a good faith effort.• Share relevant information.• Communicate effectively—open, frank communications with the

larger community, “not-for-attribution” to individuals in the group. • Attend all meetings; start on time.• Keep cell phones on silent.

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Facilitator Responsibilities

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• Maintain a neutral position as project issues are discussed.

• Help the group accomplish its objectives.

• Help guide the discussion.

• Enforce participant ground rules.

• Help involve all.

• Ask “why” to clarify interests.

• Ensure a smooth process.

• Retain confidential information as confidential to individual participants.

• Manage time.

• Track actions, next steps, deadlines.

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Agenda

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• I. Light Supper/Snacks..…………….……….…5:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.

• II. Review Agenda, Groundrules.…………....6:00 p.m. – 6:10 p.m.

• III. Updates………………………………………..….6:10 p.m. – 6:15 p.m.

• IV. Patterns of Use: Whales, Green Sturgeon and Juvenile Salmon……………………..…………………………….6:15 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.

• V. Break…………..……….………………………….7:00 p.m. – 7:15 p.m.

• VI. Lessons Learned from Other Wave Energy Experiences……….. …………..……….……………………………..……….…7:15 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.

• VII. Wave Energy 101 – Part Two.……………..8:00 p.m. – 8:15 p.m.

• VIII. Next Steps, Adjourn…..………………....….……….………8:15 p.m.

Threatened and Endangered Fish Species and Marine Mammals in the

HWCP Area

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Regulatory context for T&E species, marine mammals

• Discuss species likely to be exposed to the project

• Threatened and endangered fish species protected by Federal and State Endangered Species Act (ESA)

• Marine mammals protected by Marine Mammal Protection Act, some species also protected by ESA

• Consultation with NOAA and/or USFWS required if HWCP project may affect marine mammals, ESA-listed species, or critical habitat

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Pacific salmon and steelhead potentially in the HWCP area

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Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus k isutch)– Southern Oregon/Northern California Coasts ESU (FT, ST)– Central California Coast ESU (FE, SE)

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)– Upper Klamath and Trinity Rivers ESU (not warranted)– Southern Oregon/Northern California Coastal ESU (not warranted)– California Coast ESU (FT)– Sacramento River winter-run ESU (FE, SE)– Central Valley spring-run ESU (FT, ST)

Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss)– Northern CA DPS (FT)– Central Valley DPS (FT)– Central California Coast DPS (FT)

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Oceanic Domains

• HWCP site– Coastal

upwelling zone– California

Current

(Beamish et al. 2005)

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Ocean Distribution

• Coho salmon– 3 year life cycle– 1+ years at sea

• Chinook salmon– 2 to 3+ years at

sea

• Steelhead– Up to 3 years at

sea

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(Beamish et al. 2005)

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At-sea summer distribution: juvenile Chinook and coho salmon stocks

10(Brodeur et al. 2004)

HWCP site

Chinook salmon Coho salmon

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Coastal upwelling

• Water quality– Cold– Salty– Nutrients– Oxygen

• Productivity

http://www.piscoweb.org/research/science-by-discipline/coastal-oceanography/upwelling-regions

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Juvenile coho and Chinook salmon ocean distribution

12Brodeur et al. 2004

June 2000 August 2000

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Diet of juvenile coho salmon

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(Brodeur et al. 2007)

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Green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris)

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• Southern DPS federally threatened; spawns only in Sacramento River

• Critical habitat for Southern DPS includes marine waters in HWCP area out to 60 fathoms depth (360 feet)

• Northern DPS “species of special concern”, spawns in Eel River and north

• Green sturgeon tagged with VEMCO acoustic tags detected in Humboldt Bay

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Marine migration of green sturgeon

15(Lindley et al. 2007)

HWCP site

(Erickson and Hightower 2007)

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Humboldt Offshore Habitat Diversity

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Pinniped Species (6)• Seals: 2 • Sea Lions: 2 • Fur Seals: 2

Cetacean Species (13-31)• Baleen Whales: 5

(+ 3 very unlikely)• Toothed Whales: 8

(+ 15 very unlikely)

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Marine Mammals of Humboldt County

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“In the Humboldt Wave Connect Project Area”

• Marine mammals are very acoustic• Sound travels very well underwater• HWCP an uncharacterized noise source• Close by – physical contact, loudest• Further away – acoustic only

Need to determine noise sourcelevels and propagation.

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Pinnipeds of Humboldt County

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Common and coastal, haul out on rocks and/or beaches:

• Harbor seal – breeds here, present all year• California sea lion – breeds S. Calif., seasonal migrant• Steller’s sea lion – eastern stock, breeds at Cape Mendocino, seasonal (FT)

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Pinniped Haul Out Sites in Humboldt County

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Pinnipeds of Humboldt County

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Uncommon and/or mostly pelagic:

• Elephant seal – breeds S. Calif., Mexico- juveniles rest on local beaches in fall-winter

• Northern fur seal – breeds S. Calif., Bering Sea• Guadalupe fur seal – breeds S. Calif., Mexico

(FT, ST)

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Baleen Whales of Humboldt County

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Common and coastal:

• Gray whale – migrate past twice a year, some residents• Humpback whale (FE) – migrate, here spring to fall• Blue whale (FE) – migrate, here summer to fall

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Eastern Pacific Gray Whale Distribution

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Gray Whale Migration Past Humboldt

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Southbound Northbound

N=858 sightings, 1975-1981Sullivan and Houck 1983

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Pacific Northwest Feeding Aggregation

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Humboldt County is first place on northbound migration where there are sufficient food resources for residency.

In 1998 fifteen individual gray whales were photo-identified between Eureka and Crescent City.

About 200 gray whales remain throughout the summer from Northern California to Northern Vancouver.

Calambokidis et al. 2000

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North Pacific Humpback Whale Migration

25SPLASH 2004-2006

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Mainland Mexico To Feeding Areas

26SPLASH 2004-2006

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Blue Whale Movements

27Calambokidis et al. 2009

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Blue Whale Calls – 7 Year Average

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Toothed Whales of Humboldt County

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Common and coastal:

• Harbor porpoise – continuous all year• Transient killer whale – sporadic all year

Photo by Kerry Ross, 2004

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Uncommon Whales off Humboldt County

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Uncommon and/or more pelagic:

• Minke whale• Fin whale (FE) • Sperm whale (FE)• Pacific white-sided dolphin• Risso’s dolphin• Northern right whale dolphin• Southern resident killer whale (FE)• Offshore killer whale

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Break

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Lessons Learned

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WEC Development Lessons Learned

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PG&E directed a survey of WEC experiences to inform the WaveConnect WEC Selection Criteria.

There have been successful at-sea tests of WECs.

There have also been some at-sea tests that had problems.

Both provide experiences -- and valuable lessons learned --that result in improved designs.

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WEC Development Lessons Learned

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This presentation covers four WEC development events with companies/machines below:

– Osprey– Wave Dragon– Finavera– Trident Energy

The companies above did not respond to the PG&E Request for Information (RFI) and are not being considered for WaveConnect.

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Why Study Lessons Learned?

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In 1980, Willard Bascom published “Wave & Beaches,” that included lessons from Humboldt Bay Jetties starting in 1878. “The ocean is huge, powerful, and eternal. Puny humans can scarcely expect to win by overwhelming it, and anyone who counters its attack with brute-force solutions is doomed to expensive disappointment. Rather, the engineer must take advantage of the geographic and oceanographic conditions so that everything possible is in his favor. Then, on a battlefield of his choosing for the short span of human interest, he may be able to hold his own. The first and most valuable lesson on can learn about the sea is to respect it.”

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Why Study Lessons Learned?

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Willard Bascom (paraphrased)

The ocean is huge, powerful, and eternal.

Take advantage of the geographic and oceanographic conditions so that everything possible is in your favor.

Choose your projects carefully.

The first and most valuable lesson one can learn about the sea is to respect it.”

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OSPREY Installation

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The OSPREY was constructed in Glasgow and floated out from the John Brown shipyard in August, 1996. The full scale prototype followed theoretical studies and model testing.

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OSPREY Installation

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The WEC prototype derived its stability from filling the steel shell device with sand. The device was submerged.

Unfortunately the sand filling was not complete when the unit was exposed to wave action above the design value for that condition. The steel shell broke up.

This example highlights the importance of a full development cycle and operational procedures.

Submerging a device is a complex evolution. Stability in all phases and transitions is critical.

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Wave Dragon Mooring

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Wave Dragon is a floating, slack-moored energy converter of the overtopping type that can be deployed as a single unit or in arrays of multiple units.

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Wave Dragon Mooring

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A severe storm hit Northern Europe in January 2004. The Wave Dragon was deployed in an area where Denmark experienced the storm’s highest wind speeds. The Wave Dragon structure withstood the storm.

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Wave Dragon Mooring

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During the storm, the main mooring connection broke.The platform stranded on the beach. The unit and its mooring were inspected and secured to prevent them from drifting. The unit was undamaged.

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Wave Dragon Mooring

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The cause was a broken load cell instrument that had connected the main mooring lines to the anchor block.The load cell failed below that of the guaranteed breaking load. Investigation found a crack and indications that chloride induced stress corrosion cracking could be involved.

This example highlights the importance of design maturity and proven operational performance.

Load cells can be installed with a safety line (preventer). Material selection matters.

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Finavera Test Device

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Finavera Renewables installed a test device at sea in September 2007 near Newport, Oregon for component evaluation during development of AquaBuOY 2.0.

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Finavera Test Device

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After scheduled operations, and the successful acquisition of performance data, the device sank on 27 October 2007, just before its removal.

Finavera recovered the test device in 2008 and subsequently withdrew from the development of ocean energy projects.

The company has not released any report on the results of their failure analysis or the engineering forensics from the device recovery.

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Finavera Test Device

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Finavera attributed the failure to issues with the bilge pump and the floatation chamber.

This example illustrates the importance of design maturity, device monitoring, and contingency plans.

Failure modes and effects criticality analysis (FMECA) can be used to identify potential risks and mitigate them in design, installation and operations.

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Trident Capsize During Transit

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On September 20, 2009, the press reported that Trident’s experimental wave generator capsized while under tow and in route to its UK installation site for a yearlong offshore trial.

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Trident Capsize During Transit

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The platform grounded and was secured, inspected, recovered, and returned to harbor on a crane barge.

Trident has provided frequent updates on overall progress, but issued no announcements on its next steps.

Research is expected to understand the events contributing to the accident.

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Trident Capsize During Transit

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One possible factor is how the raised center of gravity of the system was accounted on the tow pontoon, particularly under unusual or extreme weather or confused seas.

This incident reaffirms the importance of proven operations and procedures.

Analysis of stability during all operational phases is critical.

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Lessons Learned

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The four projects reviewed in this paper illustrate the need for diligent ocean engineering and systems engineering in maritime projects.

The lessons learned from these projects suggest four general categories:

– Engineering, – Installation, – Operations, and – Communications.

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Lessons Learned - Engineering

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• Wave Dragon shows the importance of proper site characterization and material selection.

• Adequacy of all mooring components depends on the requirements of the site and the design criteria chosen.

• Collection of weather data, the design tradeoffs, and the risk analysis – are inputs to specifying an appropriate safety factor. A typical mooring specification might include the ability to withstand a 100-year storm.

The takeaway lesson is to employ conservative ocean engineering during all phases.

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Lessons Learned - Installation

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• The Osprey focus may have been on device performance and their design may not have elevated installation requirements in the early concept of operations.

• Submerging a device is a difficult operation in which stability is critical during all phases and transitions.

The takeaway lesson is to ensure a solid execution plan, including procedures for emergencies; particularly those caused or complicated by weather.

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Lessons Learned - Installation

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• Trident Energy may have had an execution plan for installation. Their problem came during transport.

• A tentative thesis for this accident is incorrect accounting for the raised center of gravity of the system when installed on the tow pontoon, especially under unusual weather.

• The root cause may have been selection of a port with shallow water that required movement on pontoons.

The takeaway lesson is to choose the site and deployment port carefully.

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Lessons Learned - Operations

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• Discoveries made during operations offer many useful lessons learned.

• Development cycles are needed to mature first-generation devices into mature designs cannot be sidestepped.

• Phased development and at-sea testing are a must.• The development of contingency plans for plausible failure

scenarios, and the prepositioning of contingency response vessels, provides additional layers of safety.

The takeaway lesson is to monitor the devices, recognize trends, and respond to indications of possible problems.

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Lessons Learned - Communications

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• How a developer reacts to and follows up after failures indicates a level of responsibility and accountability that forecasts their behavior on potential projects.

• A survey of corporate communications following portray a range of responses.

• This assessment is coincidentally parallel to each company’s perceived level of financial stability and technical credibility.

The takeaway lesson is that prompt status reports following an incident are key to maintaining trust with stakeholders.

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Summary

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The survey confirms the importance of selecting devices that have a high probability to prove themselves in array testing and proceed to commercial stage.

• A successful development history, including how past issues were resolved, will be a key selection criteria for WaveConnect.

• PG&E will review that history with each manufacturer to learn their development experiences and the resulting technical solutions. PG&E will select devices with demonstrated reliability and support.

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On the brighter side

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The survey also confirms that there have been several companies using a full development cycle that includes:

• concept development; • numerical analysis; • scale models; • tank testing; • tow testing; • scale device testing at sea; and, • full scale prototype testing.

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On the brighter side

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Wave energy companies that are known to be using a full development approach include (and are not limited to):

Aquamarine Powerwww.aquamarinepower.com

Ocean Power Technologieswww.oceanpowertechnologies.com

AWS Ocean Energywww.awsocean.com

Oceanlinxwww.oceanlinx.com

Columbia Technologieswww.columbiapowertechnologies.com

Orecon Ltd www.orecon.com

Fred Olsen Ltdwww.fredolsen.com

Pelamis Wave Powerwww.pelamiswave.com

Independent Natural Resourceswww.inri.us

Resolutewww.resolute-marine-energy.com

Ocean Energy Ltdwww.oceanenergy.ie

Wavebob Ltdwww.wavebob.com

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Ten Pretty Good Guidelines

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We are also using Lessons Learned from Wind Power (NREL):1. Develop First Principle Theories to Bound Performance and Guide Designs2. Perform Rigorous Testing3. Model the Important Physics and Validate the Models with Test Data4. Expect Prototypes Machines to Fail and Learn from the Failures5. Develop Comprehensive Standards for Ocean Energy Systems at an Early Stage6. Build Prototypes at a Practical Size. Make Them Work, Then Scale for Economy7. Develop and Verify Energy Loss Models for Arrays and Complex Flow Situations8. Develop and Verify Economics Models9. Perform Environmental Monitoring Studies at Sites10. Focus On Technology Innovation, Scale, and Reliability to Reduce Cost

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Conclusions

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Lessons learned will influence WaveConnect WEC selection and contingency planning.

• Proper planning, execution and trend analysis are essential for at-sea operations.

• Long-term at-sea operations are a necessary step in the path to achieving the commercial stage WECs -- needed for our national renewable energy portfolio.

In conclusion, we cite Bascom again in acknowledging that:

“the first and most valuable lesson one can learn about the sea is to respect it.”

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Future Topics Schedule• November 2009

o WEC Deviceso Project Description

Updateo Agency Schedule Updateo Wave Energy

• December 2009o Environmental Analysis and

Baseline Info Updateo Migration Patterns of Whales

and Juvenile Salmono Lessons Learned

• January 2010o Monitoring and Adaptive

Management Overviewo Security Systems*o Hardware in the Seao Project Description Update

• February 2010o Operations and Maintenanceo WEC Device Selectiono EMF

* May repeat topic in February

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Overview of Technology Types• Attenuator • Point Absorber

• Oscillating Water Column• Oscillating Wave Surge

Converter

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Overview of Technology Types• Attenuator • Point Absorber

• Oscillating Water ColumnAquamarine Power – OysterAWS

Columbia TechnologiesFred Olsen LtdOcean Power TechnologiesRenewable Energy Wave Pump ResoluteWavebob, LtdINRI SEADOG

None submitted

Pelamis Wave PowerPerpetuWave Power Pty LtdWavebergCentipod

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• Oscillating Wave Surge Converter

Ocean Energy Ltd

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Next Steps

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