pev (2012 versus 2013) · 11/24/2014 1 transition dynamics for pevs world pev sales (2012 versus...
TRANSCRIPT
11/24/2014
1
Transition Dynamics for PEVs
World PEV Sales (2012 versus 2013)
World Total 213, 252World Total 131,573
North America,
56510, 43%
Europe, 48633, 37%
Asia, 26177, 20%
Oceania, 253, 0%
EV Sales by Continent/Region in 2012
North America, 99148, 47%
Europe, 66346, 31%
Asia, 47453, 22%
Oceania, 304, 0%
EV Sales By Continent/Region in 2013
source: http://ev‐sales.blogspot.com.
11/24/2014
2
Sales have grown this year in Europe & China
3
Euro, 68391, 32%
JAPAN, 62916, 29%
USA, 84039, 39%
World EV/PHEV Sales YTD
Europe
Asia
USA
Euro, 68391, 32%
JAPAN, 62916, 29%
USA, 84039, 39%
World EV/PHEV Sales YTD 215,396 Sept.
Europe
Asia
USA
Asia
Leaf981970.09%
Model S190013.56%
Smart ED1390.99%
iMiEV6204.43%
Active E6434.59%
Focus E6834.88%
Spark0
0.00%
Rav4 EV1310.94% Fit E
740.53%
US 2012 BEV Sales by Brand
Leaf
Model S
Smart ED
iMiEV
Active E
Focus E
Spark
Fiat 500‐E
Rav4 EV
Fit E
2012 TOTAL SOLD24123
11/24/2014
3
Leaf, 22610, 48.44%Model S, 17500, 37.49%
Smart ED, 923, 1.98%
iMiEV, 1029, 2.20%
Active E, 0, 0.00%
Focus E, 1760, 3.77%
Spark, 539, 1.15%
Fiat 500‐E, 645, 1.38%
Rav4 EV, 1098, 2.35%
Fit E, 569, 1.22% US 2013 BEV SALES by Brand
Leaf
Model S
Smart ED
iMiEV
Active E
Focus E
Spark
Fiat 500‐E
Rav4 EV
Fit E
2013 TOTAL SOLD70796
Leaf, 18941, 55.93%
Model S, 8767, 25.89%
t ED, 98, 2%
iMiEV, 134, 0.40%
Active E, 0, 0.00%
Focus E, 1358, 4.01%
Spark, 844, 2.49%
Fiat 500‐E, 1066, 3.15%Rav4 EV, 842, 2.49% Fit E, 318, 0.94%
US 2014 BEV SALES by BRAND
Leaf
Model S
Smart ED
iMiEV
Active E
Focus E
Spark
Fiat 500‐E
Rav4 EV
Fit E
2014 TOTAL SOLD (Through August)
33,868
11/24/2014
4
Volt, 23461, 60.80%
Prius +, 12749, 33.04%
C‐MAX Energi, 2374, 6.15%Fusion PHEV, 0,
0.00%
Porche Panamera S‐E, 0, 0.00%
Cadillac ELR, 0, 0.00%
Accord PHEV, 0, 0.00%
US 2012 PHEV SALES by BRAND
Volt
Prius +
C‐MAX Energi
Fusion PHEV
Porche Panamera S‐E
Cadillac ELR
Accord PHEV
2012 TOTAL SOLD38584
Volt, 23094, 47.09%
Prius +, 12088, 24.65%
C‐MAX Energi, 7154, 14.59%
Fusion PHEV, 6089, 12.42%
Porche Panamera S‐E, 86, 0.18%
Cadillac ELR, 6, 0.01%
Accord PHEV, 526, 1.07%
US 2013 PHEV SALES by BRAND
Volt
Prius +
C‐MAX Energi
Fusion PHEV
Porche Panamer
Cadillac ELR
Accord PHEV
2013 TOTAL SOLD49043
11/24/2014
5
Volt, 13146, 32.24%
Prius +, 11489, 28.17%
C‐MAX Energi, 5809, 14.25%
Fusion PHEV, 8683, 21.29%
Porche Panamera S‐E, 610, 1.50%
Cadillac ELR, 774, 1.90% Accord PHEV, 267,
0.65%
US 2014 PHEV SALE by BRAND
Volt
Prius +
C‐MAX Energi
Fusion PHEV
Porche Panamera S‐E
Cadillac ELR
Accord PHEV
2014 TOTAL SOLD (through August)
40,778
Classic “diffusion” theory tells us that markets for new stuff is segmented into buyers that adopt earlier or later.
10
Innovators
Technology Enthusiasts
Early Adopters
Visionaries
LateMajority
Conservatives
EarlyMajority
Pragmatists
Laggards
Skeptics
{ { { { { The main processes in PEV diffusion are:
• Communication between the early and later buyers about costs, driving, practicality
• Experience that the technology is useful, better (to drive), reliable, convenient,
• Evidence that the technology is “green”
11/24/2014
6
2014
Early core market:6-15% of market
2010
Early market followers: 3‐5% of market
Early market followers: 3‐5% of market 1996 (Japan) 2004
Early market:1-2%
The development of the HEV market in Japan and California gives us a model of diffusion
Rollout was over 3 generations of vehicle design.
• 1st generation OEM mules for innovator feedback
• 2nd generation refined design, develop supply chains
• 3rd generation lean out production
Japan: 3rd generation HEV sales over 20%. California: 3rd generation HEV sales 7‐8%.
11
So, it is interesting to superimpose these first 15 years of hybrids on a diffusion curve for first 15 years of PEVs
12
Innovators
EarlyAdopters
Early Majority
2025
Early core market:6-15% of market
2020
Early market followers: 3‐5% of market Early market followers: 3‐5% of market
2010 2015
Early market:1-2%
11/24/2014
7
13
Innovators
Technology Enthusiasts
Early Adopters
Visionaries
LateMajority
Conservatives
EarlyMajority
Pragmatists
Laggar
Skepti
{ { { { {
27% bought 1 car = 65% of new car purchases
66% of the households did not purchase new car in the last 5 years
7% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 35% of new cars
Gil’s new car income pyramid
Higher income, higher education & home ownership are correlated with new car & first PEV buyers
14
Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are a wide range of products for the market
– “Minimum” Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)• Varying electric range – battery 5‐10 kWh
• Low EV performance, High MPG
• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour
– Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV)• Increased electric range – medium battery 10‐16 kWh energy
• High EV and ICE performance, medium MPG
• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour
• DC fast capability (Mitsubishi Outlander)
– Battery Electric Vehicle X (BEVx)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy
• High EV, low ICE performance, low MPG
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability
– Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy
• Exclusively electric operation
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability
– “ICE Range” Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery 85 kWh energy
• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 18 kW and DC fast capability
1.1 to 3.3 kW
6.6 kW +
11/24/2014
8
The diverse technology broadens the market, more cars to meet diverse wants and needs.
But also complicates the diffusion process, especially diffusion of information, experience and values generation.
15
2010
PEVs Typology by US Sales Q1-Q3 2014
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Prius Plugin AccordPHEV
C‐MAXEnergi
FusionPHEV
PorchePanamera
S‐E
Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500‐E Rav4 EV Model S
Car Sales
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014
Short Range PHEVs
Extended Range PHEVs
Battery Electric Vehicle
Long Range BEV
29,000 16,000 29,000 12,000
11/24/2014
9
2014 YTD PEV sales in Asia (Japan & China)
17
PHEV, 20901, 32%
BEV, 42007, 64%
Long Range BEV, 2857,
4% PHEV
BEV
LongRangeBEV
18
PHEV, 18530, 27%
EREV, 4107, 6%
BEV, 38674, 57%
Max BEV, 7080, 10%
European Market Share Sales YTD
PHEV
EREV
BEV
Max BEV
11/24/2014
10
19
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
LEAF
iMiEV
BMW i3
BYD e6
Kia Soul EV
Renau
lt Zoe
Volksw
agen e‐UP!
Renau
lt Kan
goo ZE
Renau
lt Twizy
Volksw
agen e‐Golf
Bollo
re Bluecar
Citroen C‐Zero
Opel A
mpera
Peugo
t iON
Nissan e‐NV200
Goupil G3
Peugeot Partner EV
Citröen Berlingo
EV
Renau
lt Fluence ZE
Porsche Pan
amera Plug‐In
Prius Plug‐in
BMW i8
Mitsubishi O
utlan
der…
Smart Fortwo ED
Ford Focus Electric
Audi A
3 e‐Tron
VW Golf GTE
Volt
Volvo V60 Plug‐in
Model S
European Market Sales by Group 2014 YTD
PHEV:18530
EV:38674
EREV:4107
TESLA:7080
Also, diffusion has a strong geographic aspect, with some regions, neighborhoods, developing faster
20
Coastal CaliforniaPortlandSeattleAmsterdamParisAtlanta…?
11/24/2014
11
World EV Cities & EcosystemsChart of # of Electric Vehicles per City or Region
11/24/2014
12
Cities EV/Car Ratio
This process began with early sales clusters and gets more dramatic
24
11/24/2014
13
3% percent of the addresses here
have a plug in car.
26
Market Area State PEV Sales % of marketSan Francisco‐Oakland‐San Jose CA 3.33%Atlanta GA 2.15%Seattle‐Tacoma WA 1.83%Honolulu HI 1.71%Monterey‐Salinas CA 1.51%San Diego CA 1.34%Santa Barbara‐San Luis Obispo CA 1.29%Portland OR 1.25%Los Angeles CA 1.08%Eugene OR 0.86%Sacramento‐Stockton‐Modesto CA 0.85%Eureka CA 0.63%Fresno‐Visalia CA 0.53%Medford‐Klamath Falls OR 0.51%Austin TX 0.47%Nashville TN 0.45%Juneau AK 0.44%Denver CO 0.44%Palm Springs CA 0.43%Peoria‐Bloomington IL 0.43%Salt Lake City UT 0.38%Bakersfield CA 0.35%Raleigh‐Durham (Fayetvlle) NC 0.32%Chicago IL 0.32%Phoenix (Prescott) AZ 0.31%
Data From WSJ/ Polk
Bay Area PEV market is about 5‐6 times bigger than most early
markets
11/24/2014
14
Technology varies by geography as wellMore BEVs in urban core while PHEVs in suburbs
The early market is now has a variety of buyer value clusters
28
The current round of incentives – tax credits, rebates, HOV lanes, low
electricity prices does a couple of things to this schema:
Encourages Early market followers and Early core market to jump into
the market now to take advantage of incentives.
Attract with HOV lanes, low costs
11/24/2014
15
2025
Early core market:6-15% of market
2020
Early market followers: 3‐5% of market Early market followers: 3‐5% of market
2010 2015Early market:1-2%
29
The current round of incentives – tax credits, rebates,
HOV lanes, low electricity prices aims to: encourage
Early market followers and Early core market buyers
to jump into the market now.
What are the impacts of this on market
development?