PERU´S INDC AND THE WAY FORWARD

Maria Paz Cigarán

CCAP LAC Regional Dialogue, February 10-12,2016

10/02/2016

AGENDA

1. INDC Process: What and how we did it

2. The Challenges ahead

3. Sharing our approach: Gestión CC

4. Some final thoughts

INDC PROCESS: WHAT AND HOW WE DID IT

1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PlanCC: Inventario GEI 2009, 77MM, 5 escenarios Julio – Sep

6 reuniones con sectores: comentarios a BAU y MM

Ene– 10 Abri 22 reuniones: BAU y MM

Abri – May 19 reuniones: Equipo de investigación

Oct – Dic 17 reuniones: modificaciónes a BAU y MM

Nov Evaluación cumplimiento de compromiso al 2021. Escenarios alternativos

PERU INDC: TECHNICAL PROCESS (2012- 2015)

PLANCC Project (2012-2014), identified NAMAs and sectoral

initiatives were the inputs for the development of the INDC

Multisectoral Commission (Supreme Resolution No 129-2015-PCM )

• Presidency of the Ministers Council • Ministry of Environment • Ministry of Foreign Affairs • Ministry of Economy and Finance • Ministry of Energy and Mines • Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation • Ministry of Transport and Communications • Ministry of Production • Ministry of Construction, Housing and

Sanitation • Ministry of Education • Ministry of Justice and Human Rights • Ministry of Health • Ministry of Culture • Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion

• The temporary Multisectoral Comission had the mandate to develop and approve the technical report of the iNDC.

• It was formed by Ministers or Deputy Ministers.

• Ministry of Environment assume the role of Technical Secretariat.

PERU: INDC MULTISECTORAL COMMISSION

Public Consultation 6 weeks ( Jun 5th- Jul

17th)

Stakeholders • Private sector • Indigenous people • NGOs • Civil Society • Government agenci • Subnational goverments • Academy institutions

Activities • Dissemination Meetings

• 21 meetings, 278 participants

• Macro-regional workshops • 5 workshops, 25 regions, 440 participants

• Web portal and mail submissions • ~100 comments

PERU: INDC PUBLIC CONSULTATION

Item Description

Scope National

Mitigation target and type

Emission reduction equivalent to 30% relative to GHG emissions of the projected BAU scenario in 2030.

Conditional and Non-conditional committments

20% of the emission reduction will be implemented through domestic investment and expenses, and the remaining 10% is subject to the availability of international financing and the existence of favorable conditions.

Baseline Projected BAU scenario (including LULUCF) from 170.6 MtCO2eq in 2010 to 298.3 MtCO2eq in 2030.

Methodologies 1996 IPCC Guidelines 2003 IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF

Considered GHG Carbon dioxide CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)

Global Warming Potentials

IPCC SAR values (CH4:21, N2O:310)

PERU: SUBMITTED INDC

PERU: INDC EMISSIONS REDUCTION IN 2030

BAU Non-conditional INDC

INDC

PERU: MITIGATION EFFORT DISTRIBUTION

The INDC estimates to reduce 89 MtCO2eq in 2030. Two thirds of the total mitigation would be from LULUCF sector. 76 mitigation options were developed.

Source: MINAM

MITIGATION OPTIONS: ENERGY

MITIGATION OPTIONS: LULUCF

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INDC

1. Financial evaluation of selected 10 model projects based on the iNDC

2. Private sector approach

3. Energy, Forestry and Waste N° Sector Nombre

1 Energía Reemplazo de motores (bombas, ventiladores, compresoras de aire y fajas transportadoras)

2 Energía Reemplazo de calderas

3 Energía Cogeneración de electricidad y calor en la industria

4 Energía Reemplazo de lámparas fluorescentes en los sector comercial, industrial y servicios

5 Forestal Reforestación comercial con altos insumos

6 Forestal Implementación de sistemas agroforestales (café + maderables)

7 Forestal Manejo forestal sostenible en concesiones

8 Forestal Manejo sostenible de bosques para castañas

9 Residuos Segregación de residuos inorgánicos y reciclaje

10 Residuos Construcción de rellenos sanitarios con captura, quema de metano y generación eléctrica

-0.2

0.04 0.1

0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7

1.4

1.7

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INDC: RESULTS

Elaborado por Intelfin

Energía Residuos Forestal Inversión

Profitability Index 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒇𝒊𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙 =

𝑬𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒄 𝑵𝑷𝑽

𝑰𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED SCENARIOS

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Costo 0 Cobeneficios Sin Cooperación Internacional Escenario 3 ampliado

Escenario BAU

Sectors Number of

measures

Reductions

MtCO2e

Energy 24 5.8

Transport 10 3.4

Industrial P. 8 5.2

Agriculture 10 4.2

LULUCF 11 50.9

Waste 8 2.6

Total 71 72.0

Sectors Number of

measures

Reductions

MtCO2e

Energy 22 4.4

Transport 7 3.2

Industrial P. 8 5.2

Agriculture 7 3.9

LULUCF 8 25.0

Waste 5 0.3

Total 57 42.0

Sectors Number of

measures

Reductions

MtCO2e

Energy 11 3.1

Transport 8 2.1

Industrial P. 3 2.0

Agriculture 8 3.7

LULUCF 11 50.9

Waste 8 2.6

Total 49 64.4

Sectors Number of

measures

Reductions

MtCO2e

Energy 14 4.5

Transport 2 1.4

Industrial P. 7 4.3

Agriculture 3 0.3

LULUCF 7 21.5

waste 2 0.2

Total 35 32.2

Costo 0 Cobeneficios Sin Cooperación Internacional Escenario 3 Ampliado

Mitigation scenarios (previous to final INDC)

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED SCENARIOS: RESULTS

GDP growth (% of average annual growth)

Period Costo 0 Cobeneficios Sin

Cooperación Internacional

Escenario 3 ampliado

2021 0.1% -0.7% -0.2% -0.6%

2025 0.1% -0.9% -0.5% -0.8%

2030 0.1% -1.0% -0.6% -0.8%

Peru’ s Gross Domestic Product

THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

2

CHALLENGES AHEAD

1. Goals into action:

– Dissemination, prioritization, the responsible one.

– Who does what: Management models, new coallitions and partnerships

– Policies and Instruments

– Capacity

– Finance: Sources and Structuring

– Tech

– Info and MRV

2. Maintain momentum, pressure from diversity of stakeholders: Others now, private sectors and innovation

3. Pragmatic, in line with needs, new ways of doing things, fast and taking risks.

4. Peru: a different scale, a different animal.

THE CURRENT APPROACH: POLICIES INTO ACTION

3

Climate action needs the

right conditions for action

GestionCC

¿Why GestiónCC?

GestiónCC responds to the need for clear

and efficient institutional arrangements

to:

Move from CC planning to CC action, in a

transformative way which meets both its

international commitments and the National

Climate Change Strategy.

Involve public and private key actors and

different levels of goverments in the context

of a low-carbon development and climate

resilient

Optimize financial flows from various sources

such as public sector, international

cooperation and private funds.

3

2

1

Expected results

Propose and test of CC management models to set

institutional and financial arrangements for the implementation

of the ENCC and the iNDCs.

Insert climate change action within decision-making processes

as part of the formulation, financing and implementation of

public and private programs and projects.

Create a critical mass / transformative

community in which transformative climate

change actions are an intrinsic component

of sustainable development.

.

A

managment

model

tested

Influence

in

critical

processes

An ongoing

process with

strengthened

actors

Organigrama de GestiónCC

Pilot

interventions

include Project

certification (

1 )

Institutional

arrangements

( 1 )

Financial

Mechanisms

( 1 )

Knolewdge

managment and

diffussion

( 1 )

MINAM (3)

Steering

Committe (3)

Implemented

Unit

General

Coordination

(1 )

Technical

Assistance

( 1 )

Administration

Legal Affairs and

logistic ( 1 )

Donors Committee ( 2 )

Advisory Committee ( 2

)

Academy, public and private

sector representatives

( 1 ) Implemented Unit ( 2 ) External advisor

( 3 ) Multisectorial Public Director

PUBLIC POLICIES

PROGRAMMES

PROJECTS

INVESTMENTS

From

planning

to

actions

Actions

and

specific

goals

identified

from the

climate

agenda:

iNDC

Make climate

change

action

transversal

within the

context of

national

development

Insert

climate

change

consideratio

ns into

investment

policy in

general

Contribución Nacional – Sector forestal Propuesta del Perú (iNDC)

The Climate Agenda ENCC: 2 interventions

approaches

Forest 1 Sustainable Forest Management in Forest Concessions

6.112

Forest 2 Reorganization of Permanent Forest Production and MFS

6.046

Forest 3 Forest Conservation and Conditional Direct Transfers

5.231

Forest 4 Community Forest Management

0.691

Forest 5 Consolidation of Protected Natural Areas

1.553

Forest 6 Monitoring, control, surveillance and appropriate

land management (Enabling conditiones )

24.495

Forest 7 Commercial Reforestation with High Yield Inputs

7.686

Forest 8 Community Reforestation with Medium Level

Technology 2.673

Forest 9 Agroforestry System for Coffee (NAMA)

0.357

Forest 10 Agroforestry System for Cocoa (NAMA)

0.533

Forest 11 Forestry Management for Chestnuts

0.114

Forest 12 Chestnuts with PSA

2.896

Forest 13 ANP with PSA

2.187

National Contribution – Forestry

Sector Peru´s Proposal (iNDC)

Enabling Conditions - Proper land use

managmement

- Control & surveillance

- Monitoring

Enabling Conditions, Land Use Planning, Control and

Surveillance, Rights Assignment

Institutions - Capacities

Informaction- Infrastructure

Normas

Finance

Cooperation

Stakeholders

Liderazgo Dirección

(Competencias)

Clima para la acción climática

Modelo de intervención

IMPLEMENTACIÓN

Propuesta de intervención:

Del plan a la acción

• Condiciones

Habilitantes

• Ordenamiento

Territorial

• Control y

Vigilancia

• Asignación de

Derechos

Design of public

policies and

investment projects

Leadership

& Direction

(abilities/skills)

)

Conditions for

climate action

(condiciones)

Enabling Conditions

- Appropriate land use

management

- Control &

surveillance

- Monitoring

Intervention Proposal

For planning to actions

Modelo de intervención

IMPLEMENTATION

Propuesta de modelo de gestión e implementación intersectorial

Rules

Proposal of a management model and intersectorial

implementation

Development Project

Priorities of the people

Climate Opportunities

Mitigation

Adaptation

Technical

Assistance:

• Capacities

• Information

• Sources of

Finance

• Public

private

Alliances

Instruments

for

integration

(transversalit

y)

LUP

EAE

Participation

Agreed

Development

Plan Evaluation

Climate Action Seal

Intervention Proposal

Integrate climate action into the national

development context

REGIONAL

INTERVENTION

FINAL THOUGHTS

4

FINAL THOUGHTS

1. Pradigm shift

2. Two processes needed:

– A new BAU and the Transformational Path (the ambition, what science tells us)

3. Small scale is the big scale: (programatic)

– 90% PYMES and jobs by entreprenuers – Near people needs, perceived – Consumer – Prosumer – Circular economy – On territory

4. The 80/20 rule: For innovation, we need to take risks!

– Faster – More ambition – Easier /Collaboration at a larger scale – Others (non experts, more innovation, entreprenuers, new coallitions)