pert and cpm2
TRANSCRIPT
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17-2 Project Management
Developed in 1950sCPM by DuPont forchemical plantsPERT by U.S. Navy forPolaris missile
maintenance
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17-3 Project Management
The Network Diagram
Network (precedence)diagram
Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
Activity-on-node (AON) Activities
Events
Slack is the amount of timean activity can be delayedwithout delaying the project
maintenance
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17-4 Project Management
The Network Diagram (contd)Path
Sequence of activities that leads from thestarting node to the finishing node
Critical pathThe longest path; determines expected projectduration
Critical activities Activities on the critical path
Slack Allowable slippage for path; the difference thelength of path and the length of critical path
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17-5 Project Management
Project Network Activity on Arrow
1
2
3
4
5 6
Locatefacilities
Order furniture
Furnituresetup
Interview Hire andtrain
Remodel
Movein
AOA
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17-6 Project Management
Project Network Activity on Node
1
2
3
5
6
Locatefacilities
Order furniture
Furnituresetup
Interview
Remodel Movein
4
Hire andtrain
7S
AON
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17-8 Project Management
Time Estimates
DeterministicTime estimates that are fairly certain
Probabilistic
Estimates of times that allow for variation
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17-9 Project Management
1
2
3
4
5 6
8 weeks
6 weeks
3 weeks
4 weeks 9 weeks
11 weeks
1 week
Movein
Deterministictime estimates
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17-10 Project Management
Routs to reach from 1 to 6
1) 1-2-4-5-6 (16weeks )
2) 1-2-5-6 ( 20 weeks )
3) 1-3-5-6 ( 14 weeks )
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17-11 Project Management
1
2
3
4
5 6
8 weeks
6 weeks
3 weeks
4 weeks 9 weeks
11 weeks
1 week
Movein
Deterministictime estimates
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17-12 Project Management
Example 1 Solution
Path Length(weeks)
Slack
1-2-3-4-5-61-2-5-61-3-5-6
182014
206
Critical Path
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17-13 Project Management
Network activitiesES: early start (As soon as you can start the activity)EF: early finish (As soon you can finish the activity)LS: late start ( For back calculations)LF: late finish ( For back calculations)
Used to determineExpected project duration
Slack timeCritical path
Computing Algorithm
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17-14 Project Management
Computing ES, EF, LF, LSSlack (LS-ES)
Activity duration ES EF LF LS LS-ES1-2 8 0 8 8 0 0
1-3 4 0 4 10 6 62-4 6 8 14 16 10 22-5 11 8 19 19 8 0
3-5 9 4 13 19 10 64-5 3 14 17 19 16 25-6 1 19 20 20 19 0
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17-15 Project Management
CPM
EXAMPLES OF CRITICALPATH METHOD
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17-16 Project Management
Picnic program
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17 18 P j t M g t
Without precedence
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17-18 Project Management
Picnic program Activities Time in min
A PREPARE TEA 20
B PREPARE FRUITS 5
C PREPARE SANDWICHES 10
D PREPARE BASKET 10E DRESS UP 15
F COLECT BLANKETS 5
G PREPARE SUIT CASE 20
H LOAD CAR 10
I GET GAS 10
J GET SPARES 15
K DRIVE 30
Without precedence
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HOW TO ARRANGE IT
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17-19 Project Management
3
10
2
4
8
5
6
9
1
7
HOW TO ARRANGE IT
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17-20 Project Management
Picnic program
Activities Time in min
A 1,3 PREPARE TEA 20
B 1,2 PREPARE FRUITS 5
C 2,3 PREPARE SANDWICHES 10D 3,4 PREPARE BASKET 10
E 4,6 DRESS UP 15
F 4,5 COLECT BLANKETS 5
G 5,6 PREPARE SUIT CASE 20H 6,7 LOAD CAR 10
I 7,8 GET GAS 10
J 8,9 GET SPARES 15
K 9,10 DRIVE 30
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17-21 Project Management
NODE DIAGRAM
` A D E H I J K20 10 15 10 10 15 30
5B 10 C 5 F 20 G
MAX TIME = 120 MIN.
1 3 6 9 108
52
74
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17-22 Project Management
NODE DIAGRAM
CRITICAL PATH 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
1 3 6 9 108
52
74
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17-23 Project Management
CPM
EXAMPLE CONSTRUCTIONOF A ROOM
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17-24 Project Management
ACIVITIES TIME IN DAYS
A 1-3 FOUNDATION 2
B 1-2 BRICKS COLLECTION 1
C 2-3 CEMENT COLLECTION 1
D 3-4 FIRST DPC 3
E 4-6 CURING 2
F 4-5 BRICKS COLLECTION 1
G 5-6 CEMENT COLLECTION 1
H 6-7 2 ND DPC 2
I 7-9 CURING 2
J 7-8 BRICKS COLLECTION 1
K 8-9 CEMENT COLLECTION 1
L 9-11 WALLS 5
M 10-11 EARTH FILLING 1
N 11-13 ROOF 21
O 11-12 DOOR AND WINDOW 5
P 12-16 SERVICES 15
Q 13-14 PLASTERS 2
R 14-16 FLOORS 15
S 14-15 WHITE WASH 2
17-25 Project Management
Optimization MSc
maintenance
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17 25 Project Management
NODE DIAGRAM
1
10
43
1552
1696 7 11
8
13 14
12
Optimization MScmaintenance
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j g
17-30 Project Management
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j g
FIND OUT THE CRITICAL PATH
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j g
PERT
Program
Evaluation andReviewTechnique
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j g
Probabilistic Time Estimates
Optimistic timeTime required under optimal conditions
Pessimistic time
Time required under worst conditions
Most likely time
Most probable length of time that will be required
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Probabilistic Estimates
Activity
start
Optimistic
time
Most likely
time (mode)
Pessimistic
time
to tptm te
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Expected Time
te =to + 4tm +tp
6
te = expected timeto = optimistic timetm
= most likely timetp = pessimistic time
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Variance
2 = (tp to)2
36
2 = varianceto = optimistic time
tp = pessimistic time
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Example
3-4-5d
3-5-7e
5-7-9f
2-4-6b
4-6-8h
Optimistictime Most likelytime Pessimistictime
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Path Probabilities
Z = Specified time Path mean
Path standard deviation
Z indicates how many standard deviationsof the path distribution the specified time
is beyond the expected path duration.
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17
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
Weeks
10.0
16.0
13.5
1.00
1.00
a-b-c
d-e-f
g-h-i
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Advantages of PERT
Forces managers to organize
Provides graphic display of activities
IdentifiesCritical activities
Slack activities 1
2
3
4
5 6
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