perspectives on sustainable transportation · 2018-02-12 · •cars required: 35% of jobs in major...
TRANSCRIPT
Perspectives on Sustainable Transportation
FISITA Keynote
Stanford University
Nov. 2016
What is CARS?
CARS has a forward-looking focus and provides a portal
for industry partners into auto-mobility research at
Stanford. CARS handles the infrastructure of our
community and links to on-campus groups in the mobility
space.
The affiliate program of the Center for Automotive Research
at Stanford links industry and academia
around human centered mobility and
the future of the automobile.
CARS Affiliate Partners
One Definition of Sustainable Transportation
Hall & Sussman, 2006
One Definition of Sustainable Transportation
Hall & Sussman, 2006
Transportation and the Economy
• Cars required: 35% of jobs in major cities
inacessible by transit. More than half of high-
paying jobs
• Employment: Nearly 10M people employed in
freight industry.
• Cost of Risk: ~100 people die each day on
public roads. $500B annual impact on
economy.
One Definition of Sustainable Transportation
Hall & Sussman, 2006
How much energy does transportation use?
Source: EIA
Where does transport energy come from?
Source: EIA
How is transportation energy used?
Source: EIA
One Definition of Sustainable Transportation
Hall & Sussman, 2006
Is our transportation system equitable?
Do TNCs Fix Historic Discrimination?
Mr. Cab Driver won't
you stop to let me in
Mr. Cab Driver don't
you like my kind of
skin
Mr. Cab Driver you're
never gonna win
-Lenny Kravitz
We already know discrimination happens…
…In hiring (Bertrand and Mullainathan, 2004)
…At crosswalks (Goddard et al., 2014)
In peer economy discrimination has been shown…
…In peer lending (Pope & Syndor 2008)
…In AirBnB rentals (Edelman et al., 2014-16)
So why would we expect peer-to-
peer transportation to be any
different?
Maximize long-
term revenue
potential
Before
Ride
Requests During Ride
Smart et al.
(2015)
Edelman et al.
(2016)
This Work
Maximize short-
term revenue;
minimize per-trip
risk
Reject or
Cancel
Motives
Information
Action
• Surge Prices
• Neighborhood
Demographics
• Hearsay
• Location
• Star Rating
• First Name
Maximize short-
term revenue;
obtain good rating
Route &
Service
• First Name
• Interaction with
Passenger
Where
do I
drive?
After Ride
Star
Rating
• First Name
• Interaction with
Passenger
• Gratuity
Advise other drivers
of experience
This Work
This Work
Multiple Ways Drivers Could Discriminate Against Passengers by Race/Gender
Data Gathering in Boston
5 Unique routes w/ 10-12 stops
85 student travel days, ~340
hours travel time
911 rides requested (1,000
target)
66 drivers canceled or drove
the opposite direction (de
facto cancelation)
Zero students stranded, lost or
injured
Study indicates that Uber and Lyft are not equitable
1. In Boston, Uber drivers cancel twice as frequently on
black passengers
2. In Seattle, black passengers wait longer for both
Uber and Lyft drivers to accept their ride, meaning
longer wait times on Uber
3. In Boston, women pay 5-10% more, apparently the
result of a small number of bad actors, not “average”
driver
The Path Forward for the Transportation Industry
• How can shared mobility services improve mobility for
all users and citizens?
• How will future mobility trends shape driving behavior
• What are the “right” vehicles to design, build and
manufacture for future mobility solutions?
What do future mobility trends mean for sales?
Vehicles
Year =
Vehicle
KM
x
Year
Pass-KM Pass-KM
Veh-KM
What do future mobility trends mean for sales?
Vehicles
Year =
Vehicle
KM
x
Year
Pass-KM Pass-KM
Veh-KM
[DURABILITY]
[OCCUPANCY] [MOBILITY] [SALES]
How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
010
000
2000
0300
00
40000
500
00
Vehicle Age (years)
Dis
tan
ce D
rive
n p
er
yea
r (m
iles)
NHTSA 2012
How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
010
000
2000
0300
00
40000
500
00
Vehicle Age (years)
Dis
tan
ce D
rive
n p
er
yea
r (m
iles)
NHTSA 2012
NHTSA 2016
How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
010
000
2000
0300
00
40000
500
00
Vehicle Age (years)
Dis
tan
ce D
rive
n p
er
yea
r (m
iles)
NHTSA 2012
NHTSA 2016
US Carsharing
How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
010
000
2000
0300
00
40000
500
00
Vehicle Age (years)
Dis
tan
ce D
rive
n p
er
yea
r (m
iles)
NHTSA 2012
NHTSA 2016
US Carsharing
Ridehailing (Conceptual)
How will mobility trends shape driving behavior?
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
010
000
2000
0300
00
40000
500
00
Vehicle Age (years)
Dis
tan
ce D
rive
n p
er
yea
r (m
iles)
NHTSA 2012
NHTSA 2016
US Carsharing
Ridehailing (Conceptual)
What are the “right” vehicle for future mobility systems?
• Who are the customers? And how does the purchase
decision differ from a rental decision?
• How great a fraction of sales will new mobility systems
represent in the future?
• In a world where the passenger values the service as
much or more than the product, how does a
manufacturer continue to distinguish itself?
Questions?
Stephen Zoepf
201-315-2889