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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectivas de la Industria AutomotrizPERUDiciembre, 2016
Guido Vildozo | Senior Manager, Americas
+1 781 301 9037, [email protected]
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Source: © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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Contents
© 2016 IHS Markit
SOCIMÓNOCE SERODACIDNI
AL ED LABOLG AVITCEPSREP INDUSTRIA AUTOMOTRIZ
DADILIBOM NE SOIBMAC
AIRTSUDNI AL ED AVITCEPSREP AUTOMOTRIZ EN AMÉRICA LATINA
SATNEV ED AVITCEPSREP AUTOMOTRICES PARA EL MERCADO PERUANO
NEMUSER
3
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
World UnitedStates
Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China UnitedKingdom
2015 2016 2017 Avg. 2018-23
World economic growth rates
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
World avg. 2.5%
4
Crecimiento económico - Mundial
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-2
0
2
4
6
NAFTA OtherAmericas
WesternEurope
EmergingEurope
Mideast-N. Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Japan OtherAsia-
Pacific
An
nu
al
perc
en
t ch
an
ge
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019–23
Asia-Pacifico será la región con mayor crecimiento
5
Real GDP
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
5
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
(Index, over 50 indicates expansion)
35
40
45
50
55
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Ind
ex,
over
50 s
ign
als
exp
an
sio
n
Global Emerging markets Developed markets
Índices de Manufactura Global
6
PMIs
Source: Markit © 2016 IHS
6
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Perc
en
t ch
an
ge
Real world exports Real world GDP
La era de rápido crecimiento comercial termino
7
Real GDP and trade
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
7
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Precios de materias primas recuperan desde Enero
IHS Materials Price Index
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
IHS
weekly
in
dexes,
2002:1
=1
All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
8
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas Globales Automotrices 2016
© 2016 IHS 9
88.1
90.0
+ 1.6
+ 0.8
+ 0.2
+ 0.2 - 0.1
- 0.1
- 0.1
- 0.6
88.0
88.5
89.0
89.5
90.0
90.5
91.0
2015 Greater China West Europe South Asia North America MiddleEast/Africa
Central/EastEurope
Japan/Korea South America 2016
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s
+2.3%
9
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
26.4+6.0%
26.7+1.1%
27.4+2.7%
21.0+1.3%
21.3+1.5%
21.2-0.5%
19.6+3.5%
19.7+0.6%
20.1+2.3%
6.7-1.4%
6.8+2.8%
6.7-1.5%
7.8 -4.9%8.4 +4.8%
9.1 +6.6%
4.5 4.8 5.13.7 3.7 3.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018
Mil
lon
es
Greater China North America Europe Japan/Korea South Asia Middle East/Africa South America
Short term supports 3-speed world
© 2016 IHS Markit
10
Desarrollo de mercado por región
10
Source: IHS Markit
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Millo
nes
Emerging 3Q '15
Mature 3Q '15
Emerging 3Q '16
Mature 3Q '16
11
Potential of emerging markets lowered
© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
11
Desarrollo de mercado Maduro vs Emergente
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Transporte/Mobilidadpresente vs. futuro (2040)
12
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.13
© 2016 IHS Markit
Un nuevo contexto global se forma, sin embargo aun no se sabe que rol cada variable tendrá
PresiónRegulatoria
Rivales Energéticos
Desarrollo Tecnológico
Conectividad
Cambios en la Sociedad
IncertidumbreEconómicaMedio Ambiente
Source: IHS Markit
Temas globales influenciando al sector automotriz del mañana
13
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.14
Potential for peak globalauto sales
Share of gasoline ICE to decline
14
El futuro de la industria puede ser muy diverso
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.15
Gasoline demand peaks in all IHS
scenarios
Electricity’s share in transportis growing
15
La gasolina será desplazada por otras energías alternativas
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.16
(million per year)
16
Pronostico de ventas de carros eléctricos por región
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.17
Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros en América LatinaMargen de error 2016 y perspectivas de crecimiento
17
Pais CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2017 P'17
CY 2016
Dic15 MOE '16
Argentina 650,144 631,996 -2.8% 671,076 6.2% 710,291 5.8% 579,740 15.8%
Brazil 3,333,082 2,480,502 -25.6% 1,979,968 -20.2% 1,969,610 -0.5% 2,100,228 -5.7%
Chile 328,412 283,495 -13.7% 298,081 5.1% 314,877 5.6% 262,057 13.7%
Colombia 296,047 267,821 -9.5% 237,073 -11.5% 247,472 4.4% 264,117 -10.2%
Ecuador 92,930 72,117 -22.4% 57,020 -20.9% 54,497 -4.4% 81,413 -30.0%
Mexico 1,135,029 1,351,812 19.1% 1,599,031 18.3% 1,695,393 6.0% 1,399,876 14.2%
Peru 165,915 147,559 -11.1% 151,772 2.9% 162,531 7.1% 150,483 0.9%
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Perspectivas económicas - Perú
18
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
PIB
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
Inflación
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
Cambio de Moneda por USD*
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Billo
nes
(USD
)
Cuenta Corriente
*Promedio anual
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Venta de Vehículos Ligeros (SAAR) - Perú
19
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Miles
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Ventas de Vehículos Ligeros - Perú
20
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Miles
Sales Annual Change
Eminente retomada de crecimiento
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Marcas Mas Vendidas 2016
21
Toyota Hyundai Kia Nissan Suzuki Chevrolet Renault Mazda VW Mitsubishi Others
2010 30.5% 11.5% 8.3% 10.2% 7.7% 7.1% 1.1% 1.9% 3.9% 2.1% 15.7%
2015 19.3% 13.8% 14.9% 8.5% 5.8% 5.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 21.5%
2016 16.9% 16.4% 15.0% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 22.8%
2017 17.7% 15.8% 14.9% 8.1% 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 24.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Bodytype –SUVs sobrepasaran a sedanes
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Miles
2013 2016 2020 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Milla
res
Toyota OEM YOY Industry YOY
Toyota
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yaris Hilux RAV4 Corolla Avanza
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry
2016
OEM
2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2016 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Hyundai OEM YOY Industry YOY
Hyundai
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
i10 Accent Tucson Elantra Santa Fe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Milla
res
Kia OEM YOY Industry YOY
Kia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rio Picanto Cerato Sportage Bongo
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
5
10
15
20
25
Milla
res
Nissan OEM YOY Industry YOY
Nissan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sentra Tiida Frontier Versa X-Trail
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Suzuki
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Swift Alto Vitara APV Celerio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Milla
res
Suzuki OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Chevrolet
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
N300 Sail Trax Spark Captiva
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2016 2025
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-
5
10
15
20
25
Milla
res
Chevrolet OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Milla
res
Renault OEM YOY Industry YOY
Renault
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Duster Duster Oroch Logan Sandero Master
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
2011 2016 2025
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mazda
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3 CX-5 2 CX-3 BT-50
0
1
1
2
2
3
2011 2016 2025
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
Milla
res
Mazda OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Volkswagen
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gol Amarok Fox Up! Jetta
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
2011 2016 2025
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Milla
res
Volkswagen OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mitsubishi
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
L200 Mirage ASX Outlander Montero
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Milla
res
Mitsubishi OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Honda
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HR-V CR-V Pilot Civic Fit
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Milla
res
Honda OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
BMW
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3-Series X3 X1 1-Series 5-Series
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Milla
res
BMW OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Mercedes-Benz
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sprinter C-Class GLE CLA GLA
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Milla
res
Mercedes-Benz OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Audi
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
A3 A4 Q5 Q3 Q7
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2011 2016 2025
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Milla
res
Audi OEM YOY Industry YOY
Chassis-
Cab
Coupe
Hatchback
MPV
Pickup
Roadster
Sedan
SUV
Van
Wagon
Industry 2016
OEM 2016
OEM 2025
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Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas