personalised motorised transport post 2040: only for the ... award... · cie award paper 2018 3...

Personalised motorised transport post

2040: Only for the wealthy?

CIE Award Paper 2018 2

Carrot:

• 35% off the

purchase price of

electrified car up to a

maximum of £4500

or £2500 depending

on category.

Legislation:

• prohibiting purchase of

new petrol and diesel

engine cars.

• banning petrol and

diesel engine cars and

vans from town centres


Countries that

purchased 95% of

EVs made in 2016

Countries with IC

engine ban

legislation proposals

Countries with set

targets for EV sales

Canada Austria

China Denmark

France France 2040 India

Germany Germany 2030 (only

diesels)

Ireland

Japan Japan

Netherlands Netherlands 2030 Portugal

Norway Norway 2025 Korea

Sweden Spain

UK UK 2040

US

India 2030 EU proposals for 2030

Why are electrified vehicles more

expensive?


‘It’s down to the batteries’ – Alan Mulally, ex Ford Motor’s CEO at

Fortune Magazine’s Green Conference in California, 2012.

• Drive train battery for the 2012 BEV version of the American

Ford Focus cost between $12000 and $18000 for a car that

sold for about $22000 in petrol format.

• 2016 the BEV version of the American Ford Focus cost around

$48000 whereas the petrol version cost around $27500, the

battery representing around 48% of the overall cost.

(Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 5th July 2017)

In the same report Bloomberg predict that by 2030 the

contribution of the battery cost to the overall vehicle cost will drop

to around 18%.

Why are electrified vehicles more

expensive? Electrical hardware


Converter: With many charging points being AC (including home

mains charging) a converter is required to change AC to DC.

DC/DC converter: This is a device for increasing or decreasing the

operational voltage.

Speed Controller: For DC drive motors it links the accelerator

position to the input to the motor. This is a safety critical device as

failure can lead to full battery power being fed into the motor.

Inverter: Changes the DC of the battery to AC for the motor. Speed

control is built into the inverter, changing both amplitude and

frequency of the waveform for control of speed.

Generator: Built onto the either the internal combustion engine or

the transmission of PHEVs or hybrids to charge the battery.

Drive Motor(s):

Required properties of batteries

for EVs


Safety: Lithium-ion batteries are not intrinsically safe. Short circuit, overcharging, over-discharging, crushing, piercing and high temperature can lead to thermal runaway, additive fire and explosion.


Required properties of batteries

for EVs

Good performance: Lithium-ion batteries loose storage capacity as

the number of charge and discharge cycles increases and as the

electrolyte ages. They also suffer from reduced discharge at low

temperatures.

High capacity (kW/h): High capacity the further the distance that can

be travelled in electric mode.

High power (kW): A high power battery will give acceleration through

the speed range, suitable for rural and motorway driving. Low power

best suited for town usage.

A flat power release curve: Minimum falling away of performance as

the battery becomes discharged.

High cycle life: The number of discharge-charge cycles the battery

can experience before it fails to meet specific performance criteria.

The cycle life is estimated for specific charge and discharge conditions,

termed Depth of Discharge (DoD), normally expressed between 20%

and 80%. The higher the DoD, the lower the cycle life.

Lithium-ion battery chemistry


Anode:

Graphite – common to all current types of Lithium-ion batteries.

Cathode:

Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LiCoO2) – Not used for power trains only mobile

phones, laptops, cameras etc. and a good comparator against which other types

are measured. The least safe of the lithium battery types with respect to over-

charging and penetration fires. The battery has limited power, but high specific

energy.

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiMn2O4) – Safer than LiCoO2 with high specific

power, but lower capacity.

Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) – High capacity,

high power, safe and good life span, but high cost. Ideal for EV application,

especially Hybrids, but cost is limiting its use.

Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide (LiNiCoAlO2) – Similar properties to

LiCoO2 battery, but more expensive. Used by Tesla for their cells.

Lithium Titanate (Li4Ti5O12) – The safest of the current lithium ion batteries,

with long life and capable of fast charge, but expensive. Used by Mitsubishi and

Honda.

Lithium-ion battery chemistry


Electrolyte: All current batteries use lithium hexaflurophosphate

(LiPF6) in an organic based solution as a thick gel. The properties of

the organic solution are tailored to meet the demands of the vehicle

manufacturer, with some fourteen different solutions currently used.

Separators: Separating the anode and cathode preventing short

circuit, these porous membranes vary between manufacturers. They

need to be electrical insulators whilst having minimal electrolyte

resistance and have maximum mechanical stability and chemical

resistance to degradation in the highly electrochemically active

environment. Materials include polypropylene and polyethylene.

Some separator materials have a safety feature called thermal

shutdown at elevated temperatures where it melts and closes the

pores to shut-down lithium-ion transport without loosing mechanical stability.

Cylindrical cells


Tesla branded Panasonic

18650 cell

Advantages:

1. Outer casing constrains the

expansion on charging and

during lifetime

2. Fully automated production

Source: batteryuniversity.com

Drive train battery: Tesla Model S


Tesla Model S

14 or 16 microprocessor controlled,

glycol cooled modules

‘Hacked’ Model S cell

module showing glycol

cooling ‘inner tube’

7106 individual

cells

Disadvantages:

1. Non-ideal packing of cells

2. Significant manual handling in

construction of modules


Pouch cells


Courtesy Automotive Energy

Supply Corporation

290 mm

216 mm

Cells (left) and

module (below) for

2016 Nissan Leaf

Module contains two cells

wired in series and two in

parallel

Pouch cells


Disadvantages:

1. Cell not constrained due to soft casing

2. Currently cell manufacture not fully automated and

requires significant manual input

Example of pouch cell

without constraint after 500

charge cycles


Drive train batteries using pouch cells


2016 Nissan Leaf

2017 Chevrolet Bolt

Past and projected cost for lithium-ion

batteries 2005 to 2035


Calculated by author

Predicted after Nykvist and Nilsson

Nissan Leaf

Tesla

400

1600

2000

1200

800

US

$ p

er

kW

h

2014 $150 per kWh goal for commercialisation

2005 2015 2025 2035

Forecast demand for lithium-ion

batteries to 2030 for EVs


Cost breakdown of battery pack

constructed of pouch cells in 1GWh South

Korean Factory


Item Percentage of

total cost

Cell manufacture

Cathode 25

Anode 8

Electrolytes 1

Separators 3

Pouch cell build labour 8

Pouch cell build fixed costs 12

Battery build

Battery pack management system 16

Battery pack thermal system 8

Current collectors 3

Battery build labour 5

Battery build fixed costs 11

Courtesy greencarreports.com

Rise and rise of cobalt price on LME


20,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

30,000

20172016 2018

Sept SeptDec DecMar Jun

US

$ p

er

mt

EV drive motors


Permanent

magnet (PM)

motor

3 phase

AC

Used in most

EVs

High efficiency;

High torque;

Short constant

power range

Induction

motor

3 phase

AC

Tesla and

Toyota

Simple; Robust;

Wide speed

range;

Less efficient

than PM motor;

40% heavier than

PM motor

Switched

Reluctance

motor

DC Not yet

widely used

Capable of

extreme high

speed;

Expensive

Key Powertrain Components -Electric Machines (EM)

6

EM Type Current Image Usage in EVs Pros and Cons

Permanent magnet (PM)

motor

3 phase AC

Used in most EVs

High efficiency, high torque short constant power range

Induction motor

3 phase AC

Tesla, Toyota RAV-4 EV

Simple, robust, wide speed range Less efficient than PM motors

Switched Reluctance

motor DC

Not yet widely used in EVs

Capable of extreme high speed Costly


6



motor

3 phase AC

Used in most EVs


Induction motor

3 phase AC



Switched Reluctance

motor DC




6



motor

3 phase AC

Used in most EVs


Induction motor

3 phase AC



Switched Reluctance

motor DC



Rear axle assembly from Tesla S

sedan


Inverter

Motor

Differential

Cost around

$23,000 to $26,000

Drive motor assembly from 2016

Nissan Leaf

CIE Award Paper 2018 22Courtesy Nissan

Magnets for wind generation and

Permanent magnet motors


1500

1000

500

Dyspro

siu

m a

vera

ge c

ost

for

year

(US

$ p

er

kg)

100

200

300

Neodym

ium

avera

ge

cost

for

year

(US

$ p

er

kg)

Dysprosium

Neodymium

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Sintered - Neodymium / Iron / Boron alloy

• Some with 6% of neodymium replaced with dysprosium for improved

coercivity and corrosion resistance

Criticality matrix for EV and wind

energy elements


Neodymium

Dysprosium

Terbium

Cobalt

Copper

Nickel

Manganese

Praseodymium

Aluminium

Supply risk

Critical

Near

Critical

Not

critical

Samarium

Graphite

GrapheneHigh

High

Low

Imp

ort

an

ce t

o E

V a

nd

win

d e

nerg

y

Low

Tellurium

Owning an electric vehicle


Car ownership by vehicle age


Current car pool:

In 2016 the average age of a car on UK roads was

7.8 years, but this was skewed due to the high level of

new car sales in the years 2014 to 2016.

In 2016 the average age at which a car was scrapped

was 13.9 years.

Courtesy RAC Foundation

Percentage used car sales by year


2016

10

20

30

40

50

60

Perc

enta

ge o

f sale

s

2008 2010 2012 2014

Year

Age of car

0 to 2 years 3 to 5 years 6 to 8 years > 9 years

Courtesy Buckingham University

Car and van ownership; where

you live


Percentage household ownership

No car or van One car or van Two or more

cars or vans

Urban Conurbation 33 42 25

Urban city or town 23 44 33

Rural and fringes 14 44 42

Rural village, hamlet

or isolated dwelling6 35 59

London 41 42 17

North East 29 42 29

Department of Transport; National Travel Survey 2016

The car or van and the commute


Home location

Percentage of

workers

commuting by

car or van

Source of information

Rural 73.4

2011 Census and RAC

Foundation

Within M25 29.8

Central London 3.3

Areas with

good public

transport

Overall 23

Manchester 18.3

Author’s researchTyneside 25.6

S. Yorkshire 24

2011 Census – 26.5 million workers between the ages of 16 and 74

Car and van ownership; Household

occupation by housing type


England Wales

Detached 22.2 26.9

Semi detached 29.2 29.9

Terrace 29.9

48.4

32.4

43.2Flat (purpose

built)14.9 8.2

Flat (conversion) 3.6 2.6

Source:

Office for National Statistic:; Social Trends – 41 (Housing) 2008

Office for National Statistics: English Housing Survey Stock Report 2008

Charging the batteries


Charger

capacity

(kW)

Charging

current

(amps)

Description

Home

charging

Single

phase AC

2.3 10Slow

3.7 16

7 28 Fast home

11 48 Fast home

Home

charging

Three

phase AC22 48 Fast charger

Curbside

and

station

charging

Three

phase AC

22 48 Fast charger

43 63 Rapid charger

120 na Tesla Supercharger

DC 50 na Rapid charger

Charging the batteries; curbside

charging


3td March 2018 (zap-map.com):

• 15176 connectors

• 5310 locations

• 2987 rapid charges

2016 report of the Government’s Committee on Climate Change

estimated that by 2020 there would be 70,000 EVs on the road

requiring 60,000 curbside or charging station connectors.

Zap-Map’s estimate 30,000 connections in 12,000 locations by

2022

June 2017 the RAC Foundation reported that 13% (1 in 8) public

charge points were out of action

Charging the batteries; distribution of

public charging points


Greater London

Yorkshire and Humberside

Scotland

Wales 3.3%

South East

North East 5.8%

North West

West Midlands 5.5%East Midlands 4.4%

East of England

Northern Ireland 3.2%

North West

Charging the batteries; curbside

charging


• Five types of charger: slow AC, fast AC, Rapid DC, Rapid AC

and Tesla ‘supercharger’

• Seven connector variants

• Twenty companies installing and operating curbside charging

in the UK:

• Most requiring an account

US data:

• $10,000 for a slow charger

• $100,000 for a combined DC/AC rapid charger

London electric black cab charging points:

• £18 m for 75 charging points (£240,000 per charger)

In conclusion


“Several breakthroughs in battery technology are

likely needed before they become affordable and

practical for the majority of regular consumers.”

“There really is no outstanding attractive quality about

an electric vehicle, because of drawbacks such as

finding charging stations, as well as the time needed

to charge even with fast chargers.”

Koichi Sugimoto, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo at

the launch of the new 2018 Nissan Leaf

personalised motorised transport post 2040: only for the ... award... · cie award paper 2018 3...

Documents