People’sPerceptionsandBehaviortowardsDestinationsthathavebeenaffectedbyTerrorism

BachelorThesisforObtainingtheDegree

BachelorofBusinessAdministrationin

TourismandHospitalityManagement

SubmittedtoXavierMatteucci

ViktoriaWelledits

1311014

Vienna,May17th2016

2

Affidavit

IherebyaffirmthatthisBachelor’sThesisrepresentsmyownwrittenworkandthatI

haveusednosourcesandaidsotherthanthoseindicated.Allpassagesquotedfrom

publicationsorparaphrasedfromthesesourcesareproperlycitedandattributed.

Thethesiswasnotsubmittedinthesameorinasubstantiallysimilarversion,noteven

partially,toanotherexaminationboardandwasnotpublishedelsewhere.

Date Signature

3

Abstract

The study presented in this paper tried to identify the extent to which personal

characteristics influence travel behavior and travel decision making regarding

destinationsthathavebeenaffectedbyterrorism.Asterrorismisgainingmuchmore

weight in today’snewsandmedia, it is importanttomeasurethe impact ithason

tourism.Manypublishedstudiesfocusononlyoneofthesetopics,butdonottake

into consideration that in today’sworld,media, travel behavior and terrorism are

closelyrelatedtoeachother.Inordertogainsomeinsightsintopeople’sbehaviorin

relationtoothervariables,anonlinesurveywascarriedoutin2016.Morethanhalf

ofthesurveyparticipantswereAustriansagedmostlybetween18to25yearsoldor

40to60yearsold.Thedataretrievedfromthissurveywerepredominantlyseton

ordinalscalesandnominalscales.MicrosoftExcel2016wasusedtomakecalculations,

create graphs and compute cross-tabulations in order to evaluate the survey.

Questionsregardingthissurveyrelatedtotravelbehavior,willingnesstotravel,risk

perceptionandmediacoverage.Itwasassumedthatbetweenpopulationstherewill

besignificantdifferenceswhentestingthehypotheses.However,itturnedoutthat

someindependentvariableshada larger impactthanothervariablestested.While

genderandagedidshowsignificantdifferencesinmanyquestions,levelofeducation

and amount of trips takenper year had fewer impacts.Due to recent happenings

aroundtheworldconcerningterrorism,surveytakerswerealsoaskedtoindicatethe

extent to which media coverage influences their travel decision making. Younger

people were assumed to be less influenced by media due to the assumption of

showing riskier travelbehavior.Nevertheless, this studywasmeant togive further

insights to decision making processes and risk perceptions between different

population groups. Further research in this field of tourismmight some day bring

morelightintotheterrorism-tourismrelationship,whichhasexistedforalongtime

butischangingtomorecomplexstructuresduetotechnologicalimprovements.

Key words: Travel Behavior, Travel decision making, Terrorism, Tourism, media

coverage,riskperceptions

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TableofContents

Affidavit........................................................................................................................2

Abstract........................................................................................................................3

TableofContents.........................................................................................................4

ListofTables.................................................................................................................6

ListofFigures...............................................................................................................6

ListofAppendixFigures...............................................................................................7

ListofAbbreviations.....................................................................................................8

1 Introduction.........................................................................................................9

1.1 PresentationofthetopicandaimofBachelorThesis..................................9

1.2 ResearchQuestionsandMethodologicalApproach..................................10

2 LiteratureReview...............................................................................................11

2.1 DefinitionofTerrorism...............................................................................11

2.2 HistoryofTerroristGroups.........................................................................11

2.2.1 HistoryofrecentterrorisminEurope................................................13

2.2.2 TypesofTerrorism..............................................................................13

2.2.3 Causesofincreasedterroristactivity.................................................15

2.3 TourismandTerrorism...............................................................................16

2.3.1 TheTourism–TerrorismRelationship...............................................17

2.3.2 TheImpactofTerrorismonTourismandEconomy...........................17

2.3.3 Typesofdisruptiontothetouristindustry.........................................18

5

2.3.4 TheimpactofTerrorismonDestinationImage..................................21

2.4 Risk.............................................................................................................21

2.4.1 RiskPerceptioninTourism.................................................................22

2.4.2 Safety..................................................................................................23

2.5 TravelDecisionMaking..............................................................................23

2.5.1 InfluencesontheTourismDecisionMaking.......................................26

2.5.2 RiskinTourismDecisionMaking........................................................28

2.6 TheRoleoftheMedia................................................................................31

3 Methodology......................................................................................................34

3.1 ResearchMethodsandInstruments..........................................................34

3.2 SampleDescription.....................................................................................35

4 Results................................................................................................................36

5 DiscussionandLimitations.................................................................................43

6 ConclusionandFuturePrognosis.......................................................................45

Bibliography...............................................................................................................46

Appendices.................................................................................................................51

Appendix1.............................................................................................................51

Appendix2.............................................................................................................52

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ListofTables

Table1:Decision-MakingContinuum........................................................................24

Table2:Countryofresidenceandvisitationofcountryaffectedbyterrorism.........36

Table3:Europeandvisitedacountryaffectedbyterrorism.....................................36

Table4aand4b:Willingnesstotravel(agegroups&livinginEurope).....................37

Table5:Gender,livinginEurope&levelofsafety....................................................39

Table6:Mann-WhitneyUtestforgenderandmedia...............................................42

ListofFigures

Figure1:TheImpactofTerrorismonthedecision-makingprocess..........................29

Figure2:CommunicationProcessincontextofterrorism........................................31

Figure3:LevelofEducation.......................................................................................35

Figure2:Age..............................................................................................................35

Figure4:Tripstakenperyear....................................................................................35

Figure6:Willingnesstovisitdestinationaffectedbyterrorism................................37

Figure6:Amountoftimetowaitbeforevisitingadestinationthathasbeenaffected

byterrorism........................................................................................................38

Figure8:Europeriskperception................................................................................40

Figure9:NorthAmericariskperception....................................................................40

Figure10:MiddleEastriskperception......................................................................40

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Figure10:Isperceivedriskhigherthanactualrisk?..................................................41

Figure12:Influenceofmediacoverage....................................................................42

ListofAppendixFigures

AppendixFigure1:CentralandSouthAmericariskperception...............................51

AppendixFigure2:Africariskperception.................................................................51

AppendixFigure3:Asiariskperception...................................................................51

AppendixFigure4:Australasiariskperception........................................................52

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ListofAbbreviations

ISIS–IslamicState(Terrororganization)

DIA–DefenseIntelligenceAgency

RAF–RedArmyFaction

JRA–JapaneseRedArmy

9/11–TheterrorattacksonSeptember11th2001

ETA–EuskadiTaAskatasuna(BasqueCountryandFreedom)

PR–PerceivedRisk

PU–PerceivedUncertainty

SRHI–Self-ReportedHabitIndex

UNWTO–WorldTourismOrganization

IRA–IrishRepublicanArmy

VFR–VisitingFriendsandRelatives

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1 Introduction

Thischapter isan introductiontothetopicof terrorismand itseffectsonpeople’s

behaviorandperceptionsandwillgiveashortoverviewoftheresearchquestionsand

objectives.Ahypothesisdevelopmentispresentedattheendofthischapter.

1.1 PresentationofthetopicandaimofBachelorThesis

Tourismisoneofthefastestgrowingsectorsintheworld(UNWTO),butalsooneof

themostsensitiveones(Araña&León,2008).Unexpectedanduncalculatedthreats

are a major concern in this industry and can result in significant drops in tourist

arrivals.Notsurprisingly,thetourismindustryintheMiddleEasthassufferedfora

whilenowandisnolongerattractingpeopletovisit,butratherdivertingpeopleaway.

Thereasonforthatistheregion’saffiliationtoterrororganizations,makingitoneof

the biggestmelting pots for religious terrorism (Moore, n.a.). However, today the

“HolyWar”goesfarbeyondtheMiddleEast’sborders.OnNovember13th2015,the

deadliestterrorattacksindecadesunfoldedinoneofEurope’smostprestigiouscities,

Paris(Ajaka,2015).ThenonMarch22nd2016,Brusselsairportandmetroturnedinto

asceneofcrimeaftertwosuicidebomberskilled31peopleandwoundedhundreds

(Humeetal.,2016).ISIShaveclaimedresponsibilityforbotheventsandtheycertainly

managedtobringonemajormessageacross; terrorismhasreachedEurope.While

Terrorism is not an entirely new threat in Europe, the frequency and severity of

attacks is increasing.Whatdifferentiatestheseattacksfromincidents inthepast is

theavailabilityandimprovementoftechnology.Massmediaplayedamajorrolein

thefastriseoftheIslamicState.Thishappenedduetothefactthattheuseofsocial

media is no longer restricted to individuals, so organizations such as these take

advantageanduseitasameanofpropagandaandrecruitment.Mediaoutlets,such

as socialmedia, online news platforms and television news all have the power to

influenceourdecisionmakingandbehavior(Pizam,2000).Howmuchhowever,isour

travelbehaviorinfluencedintermsofterrorism?

Theaimofthispaperistodefinethedegreetowhichpeople’spersonalcharacteristics

affecttheirtravelbehaviorandriskperceptions.Thefirstpartofthispaperwillfocus

onthedefinitionandhistoryofterrorism,aswellasitsimpactontourism.Thenext

partoftheliteraturereviewfocusesonthetheoreticalframeworkofriskanalysisand

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decisionmaking,aswellasonmediacoverage.Thethirdpartwillpresentthestudy

resultsandfinallythelimitationsandconclusionsofthispaperwillbepresented.

1.2 ResearchQuestionsandMethodologicalApproach

Inordertoevaluatetheextenttowhichpersonalcharacteristicshaveanimpacton

travelbehaviorandriskperception,aselfadministeredonlinesurveywasconducted,

whichguaranteedanonymitytoanyoneparticipating.Duetothepossibilitytoreach

peopleingeographicalareasotherthanViennainAustria,thesurveywaspublished

onsocialmedia,primarilyinuniversitygroups.Atotalof79validresponsescouldbe

achievedandprocessed.Thequestionswereaskedinaquantitativesettingrequiring

multiplechoiceandLikert-scalestyleanswers inordertoprocessthemstatistically

withMicrosoftExcelusingcross-tabulationswithPivotTablesandcalculatingteststo

provesignificance.Theaimwastotestthefollowinghypotheses:

H1: There is no difference in behavior towards destinations between males and

females.

H2:Individualsthattravelmoreoften,showhigherwillingnesstotraveltodestinations

thathavebeenaffectedbyterrorism.

H3:Theyoungergeneration(<30years)showsriskiertraveldecisionmakingbehavior

andlowerriskperceptionthanothersintermsoftheamountoftimetowaitbefore

visitingadestinationafterterrorattacks.

H4:Individualswithchildrenshowmorecautioustravelbehaviorthanindividualswith

nochildren.

H5:Mediacoveragesignificantlyinfluencestraveldecisionmaking

a) WomenandMenarebothinfluencedequally.

b) Youngerpeopletendtobemoreinfluencedbymediathanolderpeople.

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2 LiteratureReview

This chapter is made up of two parts, terrorism and travel behavior. The former

includes relevant literature on the history of terrorism, its link to tourism and its

effects. The latter includes the theoretical frameworks concerning travel decision

making,riskperceptionsandinfluencesofmediacoverage.

2.1 DefinitionofTerrorism

Thetourismindustryingeneralisbecomingincreasinglycompetitive,howeversome

countrieshavetodealwithmuchmorethancompetitiveness,theyhavetodealwith

anothersortofproblem,thatofterrorism.EventhoughTerrorismhasexistedfora

verylongtime,theactualword“Terrorism”and“toterrorize”firstappearedin1789

duringtheFrenchRevolution(Capper,2010).Manydefinitionsforterrorismexist,one

which states that inorder toqualifyas terrorism,anattackhas tohaveapolitical

motive.Thisdefinitionrulesoutstateterror,whereagovernmentterrorizesitsown

people,howeveritdoesnoteliminatestatesponsoredterrorism,meaningthatthe

governmentsecretlyusesfunds,intelligenceandsafepassagetohelpaterroristgroup

(Sandler, 2014). For research published in 1996, Pizam and Mansfield adopted

followingdefinition:“Terrorismistheactofdestroyingorinjuringcivilianlivesorthe

actofdestroyingordamagingcivilianorgovernmentpropertywithouttheexpressly

charteredpermissionofaspecificgovernment,thus,byindividualsorgroupsacting

independentlyofgovernmentsontheirownaccordandbelief,inanattempttoeffect

somepoliticalgoal”(Capper,2010).

2.2 HistoryofTerroristGroups

AsCapper(2010,p.10)states,“Terrorismisnotsimplyamodernphenomenon”.Since

ancient times,peoplehaveusedviolence inorder to fight forwhat theybelieve is

right. However, specifically since the 1960’s, acts of international terrorism have

increased steadily. In 1968 Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, which led to

politicalunrestintheUnitedStatesandEurope(Hays,2008).Inthatsameyearthe

longesthijackingincidentinhistoryoccurred.AnElAlPlanewasforcedtodivertfrom

RometoAlgiersandwasheldhostageforatotaloffortydaysbyPalestinianmilitants

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(BBC,2001),whiletwentyyearslater,thebombingofaPanAmflightoverLockerbie,

Scotlandlefttheworldinshock(Hays,2008).Whilethereareterroristattacksthatare

carried out by individuals that are not affiliated with certain groups, a couple of

terrorist groups made headlines all over theworld. The Red Army Faction (RFA),

foundedin1970inGermanybyagroupoffourextremists(AndreasBaaser,Gudrun

Ensslin,HorstMahlerandUlrikeMeinhof),receivedinternationalattentionasaresult

oftheirterroristactivities.TheirtargetsincludedNATO,aswellasGermanpolitical

partiesand industrialcompanies.TheyfollowedaMarxist–Leninist ideologyusing

armed resistance againstwhat they deemed to be a fascist state.A total of three

generationsexisted,splitupbetweentheyearsof1970and1998.Theendof1977

becameknowas“GermanAutumn”,when34peoplewerekilledbytheRAF.(Hays,

2008).Another group, theRedBrigade,managed tobe called themost successful

European terrorist group ever. The group was founded 1972 in Italy with tactical

support of the Italian Left andwas responsible for the death of 350 people using

methodsofpolitical assassination, kneecappingandkidnapping. Tough laws in the

1980’smadeitpossibleoveraperiodofacoupleofyearstocapturemorethan250

RedBrigademembersand their followers. InMay1999,after itappeared that the

terrorist group had been diminished, a group called Construction of a Combative

Communist Party reemerged and killed a high profile economic advisor of prime

ministerMassimoD’Alema(Hays,2008).While thesetwogroupshadasubstantial

impactonEurope,anotherleftwinggroup,theJapaneseRedArmy(JRA)wasfounded

in the 1969 by a group of radical students. Their goal was to protest against the

presenceofU.S.military inJapanbyoverthrowingtheJapanesegovernment.Soon

aftertheirformation,thegroupsplitupinfactions,oneofwhichmovedtoLebanon.

TheywereheldresponsibleforincidentsinNorthKorea,Japan,Israel,Malaysiaand

Italy(Hays,2008).

Relatingtotheseterrorincidentsoccurringaroundtheworld,atacolloquiumin1998,

organizedbythePentagon’sDefenseIntelligenceAgency,thedirectoroftheDIAsaid

“Oneday,terroristswillattackabuildinglikethis,inWashingtonorNewYork.They

willkillhundredsofpeopleanddealusanunprecedentedpsychologicalblow.The

question isnotwhether suchanattackwill occuronAmerican soil, butwhenand

where.Itisuptoyou,gentlemen,tobeprepared.Thesecurityisinyourhands.”Asa

matteroffact,onlythreeyears later,onSeptember11th2001,ninemen,affiliated

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with the terrorist group Al Qaeda, were responsible for the deaths of over three

thousandpeopleininNewYorkCityandWashingtonD.Cintheworstterroristattack

inworldhistory(Chaliand&Blin,2007).Theterroristgroup,asisnowknown,was

foundedin1988byOsamabinLaden,soonafterSovietforceswerewithdrawnfrom

Afghanistan.Sympathizersandmembersoftheterrororganizationwereresponsible

fornumerousbombingstargetedattheWesternworld.Today,AlQaedahasemerged

asamultinationalmovementwithoperations inat least16countries (McCormick,

2014).

2.2.1 HistoryofrecentterrorisminEurope

TerrorisminEuropeseemstobeatanalltimehigh,howeverwhentakingacloser

look,thenumberoffatalitiesbetween1990and2015adduptoconsiderablylessthan

thosekilledbetween1970and1990.Whilebetween2000and2015thedeathtoll

fromterroristattacksdroppedtoanaverageof50fatalitiesperyear,fatalitiesfrom

terrorist attacks leading up to 1990 left an average of 150 people dead per year.

Terrorist attacks since the turn of themillennium included the 2004Madrid train

bombings,killing191people,the2005Londonbombings,killing52people,aswellas

the2011terroristattackbyAndersBehringBreivikinNorway,killing77people.These

actsofterrorwerefollowedbyatleastfiveterrorattackswithin13monthsinFrance,

BelgiumandTurkey.However,whentakingacloserlookonworldwideterrorism,Iraq

experiencedthemostactsofterrorismwithabout40,000fatalitiesbetween2001and

2014,while “only” 420 deaths occurred inWestern Europe during the same time

period(Luxton,2016).

2.2.2 TypesofTerrorism

Inordertorespondappropriatelytoterrorism,itisofgreatimportancetodistinguish

betweendifferentkindsofterroristtypes.Grothaus(n.a.)createdalistofdefinitions

fordifferenttypesofterrorism:

StateTerrorism

Governments use this kind of terrorism to systematically control their population.

StateTerrorismhowever,shallnotbeconfusedwithstatesponsoredterrorism,where

statessponsorterroristgroups.Thiskindofterrorismistheoriginalformofterrorism

andcarriedoutentirelybythegroupholdingpowerinacountry.Throughouthistory,

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stateterrorismhasbeenusedbymostdictatorsinordertoassurecontroloverthe

population.

ReligiousTerrorism

Thistypeofterrorismismotivatedbyreligiousideologiesandissometimesreferred

to“HolyTerror” (Grothaus,n.a.;Chaliand&Blin,2007).Today it is considered the

mostalarmingterrorthreat(Hays,2008),as it ischaracterizedbythefanaticismof

thosewhopractice it (Grothaus,n.a.).What sets this typeof terrorismapart from

othersisthewillingnessoftheseterroriststosacrificethemselvesusing“allin”tactics

such as suicide bombings. This kind of behavior is encouraged through religious

teachingsthatareaimedtojustifytheseactionsbypromisingrewards.AlQaedaand

ISIS are the most prominent examples regarding religious terrorism. Both terror

organizations follow an Islamic extremist ideology where the “Holy Chief” is both

religiousandpolitical leader.Eventhoughthis idealdidnotexistfora longtime, it

createdtheologicalandpoliticalissues(Chaliand&Blin,2007).Hays(2008)however

statesthatMuhammadAtta,oneofthemainplannersofthe9/11,hadbeendrinking

alcohol before boarding the plane, even though it is strictly prohibited for highly

religiousMuslims. These actions resulted in assuming that some highly observant

Muslimsdidnotturnintoextremists,butratherthatviolentextremistsmanipulated

religiousconceptsfortheirownpurposesandbenefits.

RightWingTerrorism

AccordingtoGrothaus(n.a.),RightWingTerrorismaimstofightliberalgovernments

inordertopreservetraditionalvaluesandorders.Themotivationoffollowersofthis

movementisofaracistnatureandtheyareoftencharacterizedasmilitiasandgangs.

ModernexamplesofsuchterroristgroupsaretheKluKluxKlanandNeo-Facists.

LeftWingTerrorism

Left Wing Terrorism is characterized by a dedication to overthrowing capitalist

democraciesandvaluestoestablishgovernmentsofasocialistorcommunistnature.

Theirgoalistodiminishsocialclassdistinction.Aspreviouslymentioned,atleasttwo

majorLeftWingterrororganizations,theRAFandRedBrigadeexistedduringthetime

oftheColdWar.

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PathologicalTerrorism

This type of terrorism is characterized by people’s joy of terrorizing and hurting

others.Pathologicalterroristsareusually“LoneWolves”andarenotaffiliatedwith

anyterroristgroupororganization.Theoretically,suchterroristsarenotdefinedas

terroristsastheylackpoliticalmotives.Thesecharacteristicsaremostcommonlyseen

inschoolshootingsandserialkillingscenarios.

IssueOrientedTerrorism

Issue Oriented Terrorism often refers to environmental terrorism and is usually

carriedout for thepurposeofaddressingsocialorenvironmental issues.Examples

includebombingsofabortionclinicsandassaultsofwhalingships.

SeparatistTerrorism

Thiskindofterrorismreferstocausingfragmentationwithinacountrytocreateanew

state.Minoritiesoftenmakeuseofuseofthiskindofterrorism,wishingtoseparate

themselvesduetodiscriminationfromthemajoritygroup.TheETABasque(Basque

CountryandFreedom)separatistsinSpainareoneofthemostprominentexamples.

NarcoTerrorism

Narco terrorism is very different compared to the above mentioned types of

terrorism,asthisreferstothesaleofdrugstogainfunds.Mexicancartelsoftenuse

methodsofviolencesuchasbeheadingsandmassburialstointimidatepopulations

intonotcooperatingwithauthorities.

2.2.3 Causesofincreasedterroristactivity

Causes for terrorism vary, religion however, is considered to be one of themost

dominantonesthroughouthistory(Capper,2010).Generally,terroristgroupscannot

becreatedwheretherearenomajorcausesforcomplaintsordissatisfactionandno

dissidentgroupshaveappeared.Terroristactivityincreasesduetodissatisfactionof

members of societies (Baker, 2014). Causes for this behavior include economic

recessions or the introduction of new and fragile political and economic systems.

Othercausesincludegrowthintechnology,makingmasscommunicationandaccess

toweaponryeasier(Capper2010).

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Terrorismhasbecomeatoolforpoliticallyweakandexcludedpeopletorealizetheir

objectives since they feel they are not being taken seriously by the rest of the

population.Asstatedabove,notonlythelackofopportunityforpoliticalparticipation

inasocietybutalsoeconomicglobalizationhascausedinequalityamongstatesand

withincountries(Baker,2014).Inhisarticle,Baker(2014)refersto“economicanxiety

anddissatisfaction”whichisgeneratedbyeconomicrecessionsanddepressionsthat

inturncanbreedterrorism.Otherfactors includemodernizationandglobalization,

whichcanleadtosignificantchallengesanddisruptsocialstructures.Asofnowthis

phenomenon is being experienced by millions of Europeans who fear that the

increasedrefugeeflowsfromSyria,IranandIraqaredeemphasizingtheiroldpatterns

ofrespectandsocialinteractionasnewsocialgroupingsdevelop.Historyhasshown

thatanyrepresentationofmodernizationhasbecomeatargetforterrorism,suchas

theWorldTradeCenterTwinTowersinNewYork(Baker,2014).

2.3 TourismandTerrorism

Tourismhasbecomeoneofthefastestgrowingeconomicsectorsintheworldandits

businessvolumeequalsorsurpassesthatofoilexports,foodproductsorautomobiles.

Thissectoraccountsforoneofeveryelevenjobsandfor30%oftheworld’sservices

exports. International tourist arrivals increased by 4,3% in 2014 to 1,133 billion

(UNWTO, 2015). Many underdeveloped countries benefit from this industry even

morethan“modernized”countries,asitservesastheirmainexportindustry.Many

ofthesecountriesareparticularlythreatenedbysocio-economicproblems,whichin

mostcasesleadtoanincreaseincrimerates.Terrorismhowever,remainsaneven

bigger threat (Baker,2014).According toBaker (2014,p.58) “many scholars in the

tourismindustryadvocatethatbeingsafeonvacationisanexpectedrequirementfor

any visitor in a tourist destination or city”. Further research has found thatwhile

natural and human-caused disasters impact tourism to a certain extent, terrorism

tendstointimidatepotentialtouristsmoreseverely.

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2.3.1 TheTourism–TerrorismRelationship

Surprisingly, international tourism and terrorism have more characteristics in

commonthanexpected.Theseincludecrossingnationalbordersandinvolvingcitizens

of different countries, aswell as utilizing travel and communications technologies

(Schlagheck, 1988). According to Sonmez and Graefe (1998) “The relationship

betweentourismandterrorismfirstgainedinternationalnotorietyin1972duringthe

MunichOlympicGames.”IsraeliathleteswereattackedbyPalestiniansinfrontofa

televisionaudienceofnearly800millionviewers.Thisattackmadepeopleallaround

theworldawareof the tourism-terrorism relationship.Generally, even though the

possibility of being affected by a terrorist attack is verymuch real, the chance of

actuallyexperiencingoneislow.Thefearhowever,isrealandpersistentfortourists.

Thereasonfortouristsappealingtoterroristsisbecausetheyrepresentsofttargets

andareeasilydistinguishablesymbolsoftheenemywiththetouristlocationsbeing

perfectstrategictargetstocarryoutattacks(Baker,2014).RichterandWaugh(1986)

however, identifiedWestern capitalism, consumption and values as characteristics

thatturntouristsintotargets,whereasCapper(2010)identifiesideologicalobjectives

asreasonsforvulnerabilityofthetourismindustry.

2.3.2 TheImpactofTerrorismonTourismandEconomy

AccordingtoArañaandLeón(2008)“Tourismisanindustrywherebothdemandand

supply can be sensitive to extremeevents such as terrorismor political violence.”

Severalstudieshavebeenconductedtodeterminetheimpactofterrorismontourism

demand.Apopularapproachiscollectingmonthlydataforatimeseriestocompare

and analyze. In a study from 1991 Ender and Sandler found a significant negative

impactofterrorismontourismrevenues inEuropeancountries.Furthermore,they

provedthattouristssubstitutedvacationdestinationsinordertominimizetheriskof

facingaterrorattack(Araña&León,2008).

Another study focused on determining whether the severity of the event or the

frequencyofoccurrencehasalargerimpactontourismdemand.Inordertotestthis,

PizamandFleischerusedthenumberoftouristsenteringIsraelonamonthlybasisas

thedependentvariableandtheseverityandfrequencyofactsastheexplanatoryand

independentvariables.Usinga timeseries fromMay1991 throughMay2001, the

18

study showed that themore severe the terrorist attack, the higher the decline of

touristsenteringIsrael.Secondlytheyprovedthatbyaddingthefrequencyvariable,

theseverityofattackswasnolongersignificant(Pizam&Fleischer,2002).

Seddighi et al. (2001) and Stafford et al. (2002) state that “the effects of terrorist

attacksmightcausepoliticalinstability,whichleadstothedeclineordisappearance

of tourist arrivals in some tourist destinations” (cited in Baker, 2014). Literature,

statistics and surveys as mentioned above, all prove that incidents concerning

terrorismaltertourismdemandpatterns.

Oneofthemostimmediateandsubstantialimpactsofterrorismonworldwidetravel

couldbeseenaftertheattacksonSeptember11thinNewYorkCity.Uptothisdate,

theseincidentsmarkadarkspotinthehistoryoftheUnitedStatesandprovethata

countryasbigasthisonecanbecomevulnerableinamatterofseconds.Theattacks

didnotonlyhaveanimpactonNewYorkCity,butfurthermoreonairtravelaround

theworld.TheUnitedStatesexperiencedanimmediatedropininternationaltourist

arrivals,particularlyfromthoseflyinginfromoverseas.Thereasonforthiswasthe

risingconcerninthesafetyofairtravelaswellastheglobalrecessionfollowinginthe

years2001and2002.Inordertoincreasesafetyinairtravel,theUnitedStatesand

HomelandSecurityfollowedastricterpolicyofissuingvisasandgrantingaccesstothe

country,makingitunattractiveorevenimpossibleforpeoplefromcertaincountries

tovisit(Yale-Loehretal.,2005).

Inthefuture,factorssuchassafety,securityandstressfreetravel,especially inair

travelwilldeterminethetravellingintentionsoftourists(Reisinger&Mavondo,2005).

2.3.3 Typesofdisruptiontothetouristindustry

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (1994), there are three types of

disruptionstothetouristindustry:

• Shortterm,singleeventdisruption

• On–goingvolatility/uncertainty

• Fundamental,longtermdisruption

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2.3.3.1 Shortterm,singleeventdisruption

“EvenasingleeventcanaffectTourism”(Capper,2010p.23).Amajorincidentofany

kind is roughly estimated to reduce tourist arrivals for two years, while minor

incidentsaffecttourismforashorterperiodoftime,dependingontheextentofmedia

coverage (Economist Intelligence Unit, 1994). Capper (2010) provides an example

regardingthedisruptionofasingleevent.In1989thepro-democracymovementwas

suppressedinTian-an-mensquareinBeijing,resulting inthedamageofabooming

tourismindustrycausedbyexcessiveglobalmediacoverage.Theincidentresultedin

ongoingpoliticalprotestsatthesquareandthroughoutmanyothercities,leadingto

adropintouristarrivalsandemptyhotelsthroughoutthecountry’scapital.Forabout

two years, attitudes towards visiting the country shifted to thenegative side until

generalmediaandpressranfavorableimagesofChinainordertopushitsdestination

image(Lavery,1996;Gartner&Shen,1992;Hall,1994).

2.3.3.2 On-goingvolatility/uncertainty

Capper(2010)useson-goingterroristattacksinEgyptasanexampleforthiskindof

disruption.Between1992and1995Muslimactivistssystematicallycarriedoutover

120 attacks, killing 13 tourists. The reason for these attacks were the ideological

objectivesoftouriststhatdidnotcomplywithIslamicculturalvaluesandtraditions,

such as consuming alcohol, eating pork, gambling, prostitution and clothing. The

effectsoftheseincidentswerehorrificforEgypt’stourismindustryandeconomyand

led to the removal of this country from programs of international tour operators.

Touristarrivalsfinallyreturnedto1992levelsafterfouryears,howeveronlyoneyear

lateraterroristattacktookplaceattheLuxorTemple,killing60tourists.Asaresult,

touristarrivalsdecreasedagain.

2.3.3.3 Fundamental,long-termdisruption

NorthernIrelandisacountrythathasalottoofferconcerninglandscape,recreation

andarchitecture.Thecountryhowever,hasa longhistoryofunrestandterrorism,

whichcurtailedtheirtourismindustry.ParamilitaryactivitiesoftheIrishRepublican

Army (IRA) and its Loyalist counterparts have not only severely damaged the

destinationimageofNorthernIrelandovermanyyears,butalso,toalesserextent,

thatoftheRepublicofIreland(Capper,2010).Duringthe1950’sand1960’stourism

increaseduntil the1970’swhenvisitornumbers rapidlydeclined.Thecountrywas

20

abletomoderatelyrecoverinthe1980’sandearly1990’sduetoalowernumberof

terroristattacks.Thetouristsegmentthatshowedthebiggestdropinarrivalswasthe

British.Itisarguedthatduetothegeographicalproximityofbothcountries,media

coveragewasgreatestintheUK,whereNorthernIrelandwasportrayedasaproblem

area(Buckley&Klemm,1993).Thecountryhadtofacesevereproblemsconcerning

changingvisitorprofiles.Whilearrivalsofpeoplevisitingfriendsandrelatives(VFR)

andbusinesstourismcontinuedtogrow,touristarrivalsofholidaymakerscontinued

to decline. According toDeegan andDineen (1994) “The higher the proportion of

VFR’sinthetouristpopulationofanarea,theworsetendstobetheperformanceof

thetourismsector”.WhileNorthernIrelandhasareasofexceptionalnaturalbeauty

tooffer,otherBritishIslescountriesstillperformassubstitutes.44%oftouristarrivals

inScotlandaccountforpureholidaymakers,overdoublethepercentageofNorthern

Ireland’stouristarrivals.BothcountriesoffersimilarattractionsthoughScotlandisa

farbiggercountrythanNorthernIreland.

Compared to theotherBritish Isles countries,Northern Irelanddoesnothaveany

distinctive attractions or high quality products to offer, making the necessary

improvement of destination image difficult. Even though tourists have not been

targetsinthecountry’songoingunrest,theyareawareofthepossibilityofterrorists

hittingthewrongpersonataparticular locationatthewrongtime(Capper,2010).

Unrest and terrorism have become an unwanted characteristic of the country,

impairingdevelopment inthetourismsectorsincethe late1960’s.TheRepublicof

Ireland,eventhoughterroristactivitywaslowtherecomparedtoNorthernIreland,

hadtodealwiththebacklashoftheNorth,leadingtothecountrynotbeingableto

reachfullpotentialinthetourismmarket.TheRepublicofIrelandinvestedinstrong

marketing campaigns in order to distance themselves from the North, which

successfullyincreasedtouristarrivals.Inthemid1990’stheRepublicofIrelandTourist

BoardagreedtocooperatewiththeNorthernIrelandTouristBoardtoboosttourism

onthewholeisland.Thisagreementandcooperationresultedinpositiveglobalmedia

attention,bringingbenefits tobothcountrieswith regard to theeconomyand the

tourismindustry(Capper,2010).

21

2.3.4 TheimpactofTerrorismonDestinationImage

DestinationImagehasbeendefinedbytheWorldTourismOrganization(1979,p.5)as

“theidealconceptionsheldindividuallyorcollectivelyaboutadestination.”TheWTO

suggests that an image is not created from scratch, but rather involves the

transformationofanexistingimage.However,findingacleardefinitionfortheterm

“Destination Image” has been quite difficult for researchers and led to vague and

incompletedescriptions.EchtnerandRichie(1991)for instance,definethetermas

“impressions of a place” or the “perceptions of an area”, leaving room for

interpretation.

Baker(2014)statesthatthe9/11attackshadamajorimpactontheUnitedStates’as

wellasNewYorkCity’sdestinationimage.TheWorldTradeCenterwasarecognized

landmarkandtouristattraction,notonlybecauseofitsheight,butalsobecauseofits

remarkable construction. In a matter of hours, millions of people saw these two

buildingsvanishingfromtheNewYorkCityskyline(history.com,n.a.).

Eventhoughnotmuchresearchhasbeendoneinthefieldofdestinationimage,Witt

and Moore (1992) investigated to what extent special events have an impact on

destinationimageinNorthernIreland.Theytestedwhetherpromotingsuchevents

canoutweighanegativeexternalimagecausedbyterrorism.Thestudyshowedthat

the country needed to increase inbound tourism by paying more attention to

overcomingitsnegativedestinationimage.NorthernIreland,howeverdidnotcome

up with any solution relating to its negative destination image, but rather tried

increasingvisitationwithothermeans.Coshall(2003),foundthatthehighlyattractive

destinationsforUKtravelersintermsofarrivalsandreputationrecovermuchquicker

in theaftermathof a crisis. Following these findings,Baker (2014)emphasizes the

importanceoffullyintegratingrecoverymarketingwithcrisismanagementactivities.

2.4 Risk

Macquarie(1999),definedriskasthe“exposuretothechanceofinjuryorlossora

hazardordangerouschance”(citedinReisinger&Mavondo,2005).Haddock(1993)

lists three different kinds of risk: absolute, real and perceived risk. Absolute risk

22

relatestospecialistsimplementingsafetyproceduresinordertominimizerealrisk,

whileperceivedriskisdrawnfromone’sindividualobservationandknowledge.

2.4.1 RiskPerceptioninTourism

Tsaur,TzengandWang(1997)definedriskintourismasbeing“whatisperceivedand

experienced by tourists during the process of purchasing and consuming traveling

services”(citedinReisinger&Mavondo,2005).However,limitedattentionhasbeen

drawntotheelementofriskasacomponentoftouristdecisions.Themainreasonfor

thesplitofriskintoactual,realandperceivedriskistheextensivemediacoverageon

topicssuchaspoliticalviolenceandinstabilityononehandandonterrorismonthe

other hand. For that reason, perceived riskmay outweigh actual risk. In order for

destination marketers to better understand perceptions and attitudes, travel risk

shouldbestudiedintermsofactualandperceivedrisk(Baker,2014).Inastudy,Roehl

andFesenmaier(1992)groupedtouristsbasedontheirperceptionofrisk:

- riskneutral;

- functionalriskand;

- placerisk

The study found that the risk neutral group believes that there is no connection

betweenriskandtourism.Thisgroupwasconcernedwithplacingmoreemphasison

the need to experience excitement and adventure compared to the other groups.

Furthermore,theriskneutralgroupwasconnectedtoframinguncertainty,inthiscase

risk, as part of their excitement for travelling. The functional risk group only

considered problems concerning mechanics, organization and equipment as the

biggest source of risk related to tourism. Finally, the place risk group generally

consideredvacations tobe fairly risky andperceived thedestinationof theirmost

recentvacationasveryrisky.Thisstudywas,backthen,oneoftheveryfewonesto

be published, as risk perception theory has only been of great interest after the

terroristattacksonSeptember11th(Baker,2014).Thedefinitionaboutriskbeingan

exposuretocertainthreatsordangers,referstothebeliefthatthedecision-making-

processesat thetimeofchoosingadestinationarediverse. Inconsumerbehavior,

multiple different types of risks can be identified, such as financial, social,

psychological,physical,functional,situationalandmostrelevantforthepurposeof

23

thispaper;travelrisks(Reisinger&Mavondo,2005).Mostconcernsrelatingtorisks

areassociatedwithhealth,terrorism,crimeornaturaldisastersattouristdestinations

(Baker, 2014). Roehl and Fesenmaier (1992) identified three different types of

perceivedriskintourism:physicalequipmentrisk,vacationriskanddestinationrisk.

WhileRoehlandFesenmaierargueaboutdifferentgroupsofriskperception,Quintal,

LeeandSoutar (2010)elaborateontheterminologyofperceivedrisk.Uncertainty,

worry, fear and anxiety are all terms that have been used interchangeably with

perceivedrisk.Scholarsthereforehavetriedtodistinguishbetweenperceivedriskand

perceived uncertainty by applying probability. This resulted in a definition which

statesthataslongastheprobabilityofsomethinghappeningisknown,perceivedrisk

(PR) is the appropriate term, if not, thenperceiveduncertainty (PU) shall beused

(Hofstede,2001).Thisdefinitionwasappliedtoasurveyabouttheimpactofthese

twoconstructsontraveldecisionmakingbutdidnotincorporatetherelationshipsof

PRandPU(Quintaletal.,2010).

2.4.2 Safety

Like risk, safety is a factor closely related to travel decisionmaking. Destinations,

airlinecompaniesandhotelswishtocreatea“favorableenvironment”.Todoso,itis

important to understand how potential tourists experience and perceive their

surroundings.Majorconcernsrelatingtointernationalandoverseastravelrelateto

air travel. Lack of personal safety, among other factors is perceived as a major

restraintto internationaltravel.Governmentsnowadays issuetravelwarningsona

weekly to monthly basis to their citizens, which are created based on political

instability, acts of terror, violence, health andweather. These announcements are

issuedinthehopeofcreatingawareness,butarewidelymisunderstoodandinstead

createconcernsandanxietyaboutpersonalsafety(Reisinger&Mavondo,2005).

2.5 TravelDecisionMaking

Tourist travel decision making and its search for information is a complex

phenomenon.Thereasonforthatisthelargevolumeofinformationavailableandthe

possibility to combine different bits of it. Previous studies have focused on travel

24

decisionmakingasone individualdecision,not includingopinionsanddecisionsby

spouses.Followingthesestudies,researchershaveconcludedthatpotentialtourists

gather informationofdifferenttypesfromavarietyofsources(Fodness&Murray,

1998).Solomonetal. (1999)concludedthattraveldecisionmaking isnotonlyone

singledecision,butconsistsofmanysub-decisionsofwhichsomearemadeoutof

habit.

Themultidimensional and abstract concept of habit has createdmany discussions

abouthowtomeasureandoperationalizeit.Inordertobringclarification,Verplanken

andOrbell(2003)introducedaSelf-ReportedHabitIndex(SRHI).Themodeltakesinto

considerationmanydifferenthabitstobemeasuredatonce,suchaseatinghabitsand

transportation choices. Björk and Jansson (2008)were the first ones to apply this

modeltothefieldoftourismbyelaboratingonthetheoreticalframeworkbySolomon

etal.(1999)andgatheringempiricalresultswithaquestionnairebuiltontheSRHI.

Solomonetal.(1999)createdadecisionmakingcontinuum,withthehabitualdecision

makingapproachontheleftsideandextensivedecisionmakingapproachontheright

side,asseeninTable1.Inthehabitualdecisionmakingapproach,everydecisionis

madeveryfastandwith lowmentaleffortand involvement.Theadvantageofthis

approachisthatit is lesstimeandenergyconsumingandreducestheriskofbeing

disappointed as the consumer knows that he or she has been satisfied with the

Table1:Decision-MakingContinuum,adoptedfromBjörkandJansson(2008,p.14)

25

decision in the past. This approach characterizes the traveler as having high

knowledgeaboutavailablealternativesandlowneedforinformation.

Intheextensivedecisionmakingapproach,atravelerwillputmoretimeandeffortin

hisdecisionasopposedtoahabitualdecisionmaker.Thisapproachshowssimilarities

to the traditional decision making perspective, where a traveler goes through

followingstages:

1. Problemrecognition

2. Informationsearch

3. Evaluationofalternatives

4. Productchoice

5. Outcomes

Previous researchhasprimarily focusedondecisionoutcomes, suchasdestination

choice, rather than the whole process. Consequently, travel decisions have been

consideredtobetrade-offsamongdestinationattributesandcharacteristics(Jeng&

Fesenmaier,2002).Asmentionedbefore,traveldecisionmakingisnotnecessarilyone

singlebigdecision,butseveralmultifacetedsub-decisions;wheretogo,whentogo,

whattodowhileonvacationandhowtogettothechosendestination.

Decisionsconcerningwheretogorefertothechoicesonehaswhengoingonvacation,

including the choice of various destinations and the choice to stay at home. This

decision can be influenced by experiences, emotions and activities. Decisions

concerningwhen to go refer to the time of the year a person chooses to go on

vacation.Thisdecisionisratherinfluencedbyexternalfactorsthaninternalfactors,

suchasworkschedulesandweather.However, someactivitiesapersonwishes to

perform during vacation are very season dependent, such as skiing in winter and

surfinginsummer.Inthatcase,aperson’swishtocarryoutthisspecificactivitywill

verymuchinfluencewhentotakeavacation.Decisionsconcerningwhattodo,refer

tothevarietyofactivitiesapersoncanchoosefromwhenonvacation.Someprefer

totobenon-active,bydoingactivitiesthatarequietandcalmandsomeprefertobe

very adventurous and active. Additionally, the decision is influenced by the

destinationapersonhas chosen to go to, as someplacesoffermoreadventurous

activitiesduetotheirtopography.Decisionsconcerninghowtogettoadestination,

26

refertothemeansoftransportationapersonchoosestogoonvacation.Thisdecision

canbeinfluencedbytheavailabilityoftransport,healthissuesandanxiety(Björk&

Jansson,2008).

With regard to thedecision-making continuum,DecropandSnelders (2005) found

thatdecisionsthathavebeenmadeextensivelycaninthefutureturnintohabitual

decisions.Forinstance,adecisiontogoskiing(relatingtowhattodo)mayhavebeen

made bymaking use of the extensive decision-making aproach by evaluating and

comparingdifferentskiresortsandareas.ThedecisionofgoingtotheAlps(whereto

go)caninfuturebecomearoutineandthedecisionismadeduetohabit.Thistheory

suggests thattraveldecision-makingcannotbe linkedtooneplaceonthedecision

makingcontinuuminTable1.

2.5.1 InfluencesontheTourismDecisionMaking

Cooperetal. (1993)mentions fourmain fieldsof influence;energizersofdemand,

touristroles,effectorsofdemandanddeterminantsofdemand.

Energizersofdemand

Bothpersonalandsocialdeterminantsoftravelbehaviorareincludedinenergizersof

demandand influencethedecisionmakingprocessof tourists.Themainandmost

importantcomponentof this influence ismotivation,which ischaracterizedbythe

conceptofequilibrium.Crompton(1979,p.409)states“tensioninthemotivational

systemoccurswhensomeneedarisesandthatthisdisturbanceofequilibriumdrives

theorganismtoelicitacourseofactionthatisexpectedtosatisfytheneedandto

restoreequilibrium.”Assoonasequilibriumisrestoredasaresultoftheneedbeing

met, theprocess ends. Some researchers describemotivationprimarily as a need,

whereasothersrelyonthemotivationalpushandpulltheory(Capper,2010).

TouristRoles

Likeanyotherconsumers,touristsarenothomogenousandeverytouristwillhave

different expectations, needs and goals. Nevertheless, researchers have tried to

create tourist typologies to characterize differences among tourists. Cohen (1972)

created a “Sociological Tourist Typology”, which is based on the degree to which

tourists seek uniqueness or familiarity in their travels. He groups them into four

categories; organized mass tourist, individual mass tourist, the explorer and the

27

drifter. The organized mass tourist is the least adventurous tourist in this group,

seekingfamiliarityandusuallypurchasingall-inclusivetoursorpackageholidays.The

individualmass tourist is characterized by beingmore autonomous and free from

restrictions than the previous group. The explorer enjoys adventurous trips, but

sometimeswishestostepback intomorefamiliarconditions.Thedrifterslidesthe

furthestawayfromthetraditionaltouristpathandisalmostwhollyimmersedinthe

hostculture.Whilethefirstgroupmightnotwanttovisitadestinationthathasbeen

affected by terrorism, the last onemight want first hand experiences andmight

actuallyenjoyvisitinglocationsthathaveexperiencedterroristactivity.

Plog (1974) on the other hand only identified two categories; allocentrism and

psychocentrism. The former relates to adventurous types that like travelling

independently, whereas the latter refers to more conservative types that enjoy

packageholidays.

Dann (1977) and Crompton (1979) argue that family and social structure have an

impactontravelbehavior.Children,relativesandclosefriendsforinstance,havethe

powertodirectlypersuadeanindividualtovisitadestination.

EffectorsofDemand

Energizers of demand can either be heightened or lessened due to travel stimuli,

which include advertising, promotion, travel literature, suggestions,

recommendations and reports from other travelers. Through these effectors of

demand, the consumer will have developed ideas and expectations of certain

destinations or other tourism products through the process of learning (Capper,

2010).

DeterminantsofDemand

Research in this field relates to the determining the reasons that people travel

(Capper,2010).Whileenergizersofdemandconsistofmotivationalfactorsthatlead

atouristtoundertakeaholiday,otherpersonalfactorsinfluencetravelmotivationas

well.Cooperetal.(1993)identifieddeterminantsthatcanaffectpurchasingbehavior

in twoways.Age,gender, familymakeup,educationand life cycle influence travel

behaviorinoneway,whereasbarrierstoparticipationresultinpeoplenottravelling

atall.Researchabouthowgender influencestravelbehaviorhasshownwomento

28

havehigher levelsof fearofviolence.Researchaboutage,on theotherhand,has

shown that this characteristic influences purchasing behavior the most. Family

makeuphasshowntoinfluencepurchasingbehavior inawaythatchildrenuptoa

certainageactasabarriertoparticipationinvariousactivities.Educationhasshown

to affect decisions by influencing attitudes, perceptions and motivations (Capper,

2010). Life cycle on the other hand influences decisions in away that new cycles

evolveatdifferentages.Cooperetal.(1993)distinguishesherebetweenindividual

lifecyclesandfamilylifecycles.

Barriers to participation include cost, lack of time, health limitations, family

circumstancesandfearandsafety.Thesebarriershowevermaybeovercomeifthe

motivationtotravelissufficientlypowerful(Capper,2010).

2.5.2 RiskinTourismDecisionMaking

The component of risk in travel decision making has so far only received limited

attention.InastudyUmandCrompton(1992)introducedtwoterms,facilitatorsand

inhibitors.Theformerreferstodestinationattributesthathelptosatisfythetourist’s

motives,whereasthelatterreferstotheattributesthatarenotcongruentwiththose

motives. Tourists then make use of these attributes by eliminating destination

alternatives that do not match with their expectations. According to Um and

Crompton(1992),facilitatorshavegreaterinfluenceinthebeginningofthedecision

makingprocess,whereas inhibitorshave greater influence towards theendof the

decisionmaking process, when the outcome becomesmore serious. Other actual

research concerning this topicwas carried out by Sonmez andGraefe (1998). The

authorscreatedaframework(Figure1)thatcombinesthedecisionmakingprocess

withtheexternalinfluenceofterrorismrisk,byreferringtopsychologicalandtourism

literaturebasedonriskperceptiontheories.

29

This framework, likemostotherdecision-makingmodels,uses thecomponentsof

problem recognition, information search, evaluation of alternatives and choice.

Additionally,threeinfluencingfieldshavebeenadded.Thefirststepofthisframework

is problem recognition, which leads to amotivated state within an individual. An

awarenessof terrorismat this stage ismost likelydue to theexposure toexternal

factors such as media coverage, government issued travel advisories or social

interaction. The next step refers to the awareness set of alternative destinations,

which individuals have learned about incidentally or through passive or informal

informationsearch.Thesealternativesarefurtherspiltupinthreegroupsbasedon

their interest;evokedset, inertsetand ineptset.Evokedsetreferstodestinations

whereactiveand formal information searchwill takeplace.The inert set refers to

destinationsthattheindividualisnotyetsureaboutorinsufficientlyinformed.The

ineptsetreferstodestinationsthathavebeenrejectedduetonegativeperceptions

Figure1:TheImpactofTerrorismonthedecision-makingprocess,

adoptedfromSonmez&Graefe(1998,p.124)

30

or perceived risks. The information search is conducted on destinations that have

beenplacedintheevokedsetandtheinertset.Forthispurpose,theindividualmight

takemultiplesourcesof informationchannelsintoconsideration.It isalsobelieved

thattheextentoftheinformationsearchishighlydependentonpastexperiencesand

perceptions,thusatthispointinthedecisionmakingprocess,destinationsarebeing

evaluatedaccordingtotheirsafetylevelsandriskfactors,withregardstoterrorism

andpoliticalproblems.InthenextstageSonmezandGraefe(1998)appliedatheory

ofKahneman’sandTversky’s(1979)whichsplitsriskydecisionmakingintwostages.

First, alternatives are narrowed down to a handful until one is selected. Second,

alternatives that are considered undesirable are eliminated. Sonmez and Graefe

(1998) applied this theory to the stage atwhich the individual has to evaluate its

alternativesbasedonsafetyandterrorismrisk.Relatingtothis,Plog(1974)statesthat

riskadverseindividualsaremorelikelytochoosedestinationsthatareperceivedsafe,

whereasriskseekersarelikelytonotmakedecisionsbasedonsafetylevels.Thenext

stagereferstodestinationchoice.Thischoicewillbemadebasedonone’sindividual

characteristicsandexperiencesconcerninglevelofsafety,perceivedriskandneeds.

ThislinksbacktothepreviouslymentionedworkbyUmandCrompton(1990,p.19)

whostated“potentialtouristsarelikelytonarrowdownperceptionsofdestination

attributes into facilitators and inhibitors eliminating destination alternatives from

theirconsiderationorevokedsetbyponderingthe impactsofthose inhibitorsand

facilitators.”

SonmezandGraefe(1998)added,inthelaststageoftheframeworkunderpossible

decisionoutcomes,theprobabilityofcancellingtravelplans.Thisreferstothecase

whenindividualsafterbookingtheirvacation,acquireinformationaboutterrorismor

politicalproblemsandwishtocanceltheirtriporsubstitutetoadifferentlocation.

This is supported by an information integration theory, which was developed by

Anderson(1981).Thistheorystatesthatwhenadditionalalternativesareaddedto

the evaluation, already formed impressions and judgments about products and

services(orinthiscase,destinations)maychange.SonmezandGraefe(1998)applied

thistheorybeyondthepointoffinalchoice,meaningthatevenafterindividualshave

madetheirfinaldestinationchoice,newnegativeinformationwillstillbeintegratedin

thedecisionmakingprocess.

31

2.6 TheRoleoftheMedia

Weimann and Winn (1994) state that “Media coverage of terrorism or political

upheaval has the potential to shape individuals’ images of destinations” (cited in

Baker, 2014). The authors argue about the connection between terrorists and

journalists who use media to stage events and performances in order to receive

attention.RichterandWaugh (1986)on theotherhandargueabout theextent to

whichmediaenhances and influences communicationbetween terrorists.Upuntil

twodecadesago,communicationasknowntodayhadnosuchinfluenceonterrorist

activitycomparedtotheamountofmediathatisavailableandfreeofchargetoday.

Through themedium of the internet distances and thus communication between

distancesisnobarrierforterrorism.

Karbour(1971,p.9)statedthat“asasymbolicactterrorismcanbeanalyzedmuchlike

anyothermediumsofcommunication”implyingthatcommunicationandterrorism

can be evaluated similarly. He further applies four basic components of

communication to the context of terrorism. The organization in that case is the

terroristgroup,themessageistheterroristactitselfwithallcasualtiesinvolved,the

mediumusedisthemediaandtheintendedrecipientofthemessageistheterrorist’s

target, which can be a specific government or governments, tourists, and

organizations.Thefeedbackrelatedtothecommunicationprocessisthereactionof

therecipient,inthiscasethetarget.Figure2isanillustrationofthecommunication

processadaptedtoterrorism.

Figure2:CommunicationProcessincontextofterrorism,adoptedfromCapper(2010,p.16)

TerroristGroup

Terroristaction

Media(TV,Print)

TargetAudience

TargetAudience

TargetAudience

ORGANIZATIONMESSAGEMEDIUM

32

RichterandWaugh(1986)arguethatthefamiliarityoftheterrorismphenomenonis

largelypromotedthroughmassmediaandPizam(2000)concludedthatthemediaare

exaggeratingandmagnifyingthealreadyvolatilerelationshipbetweenterrorismand

tourism.Somedestinationstherefore,thathadexperiencedisolatedterroristattacks

inthepast,complainthatmediaexaggeratesandoveractsbygivingminorincidents

greaterprominence.Obviously,suchstatementsleaveroomopenforarguments,as

forsomeonewhowasnotpresentduringsuchaterrorattack,itmaybedifficultto

distinguish between a minor and major attack. Nevertheless, such media might

unintentionallydiscourageandfrightenpeopleandthusreducetouristarrivals.

Researchshowsthatasaresultofglobalizationandtechnologicalimprovements,the

mediagainadvantagesthatmanypeoplearenotevenawareof.Graphicallyhighly

definedlivereportsinstantlyfromanywhereintheworldarenowadaysanintegral

partofeverynewsreport.Withinsecondshowever,destinationimagesandtourism

industriescanbetarnishedandjeopardized(Pizam,2000).

In order to evaluate themedia’s communication of terrorism and the subsequent

effectontourismmarkets,RichterandWaugh(1986)tookacloserlookattheevents

ofthemid1980’s.Duringthistimethelevelofterrorattacksandtheextensivemedia

and press coverage unintentionally increased the impact and importance of these

events and caused substantial negative impactson the tourism industry.Whileup

until the mid 1980’s the impact of terrorist attacks took a couple of months to

diminish,beginningfrom1985sucheventsbegantohaveamorelastingimpactthan

usual,notonlyonthedestinationitself,butalsoinwidergeographicalareas.Thiswas

highlyvisibleupuntilearly1986.

The substantialdifferencebetweenmediacoverage in the1980’sand today is the

existenceofsocialmedia.OnNovember13th2015,thenightwhenISISstruckParis,

Facebookusers receivednotifications frompeople stating “marked safe”. This is a

feature thatwasprimarilydesigned tonotifyone’swellbeing to friendsand family

duringnaturaldisasters.ThenightoftheParisattackshowever,wastheveryfirsttime

thesocialmediagiantactivatedthisfeatureinresponsetoterrorism(Ajaka,2015).

Onlyonedayearlier,twosuicidebombersfromthesameterrororganizationaffiliated

withParis,killed43peopleinBeirut,Lebanon(Botelhoetal.,2015).Contrarytowhat

peopleperceive,Beirut,eventhoughitsharesaborderwithSyria,hadaverypeaceful

33

yearandaswiththeParisattacks,theBeirutattackshavebeensomeofthedeadliest

indecades.Mediaoutletshowever,chosetopaymoreattentiontotheFrenchcapital

ratherthantreatingbothcapitalssimilarly(Ajaka,2015).AccordingtoDavidGraham

(citedinAjaka,2015)avarietyoffactorscouldhaveresultedinthisinconsistencyin

attention and compassion, some of which include tourism patterns and cultural

familiarity. Ajaka (2015) compared in his newspaper article headlines from both

events.HeadlinesfortheParisattackswereaffiliatedwithgriefandalarmandstories

were written in a beautiful and expressive way, whereas emerging headlines

regardingtheBeirutattacksallincludedthephrase“Hezbollahstronghold”.Coverage

fortheformerprioritizedtheciviliannatureofthesceneasopposedtocoverageof

the latter, focusing on the religious makeup of the area attacked.

34

3 Methodology

The purpose of this study is to elaborate to what extent certain personal

characteristicshaveanimpactontraveldecisionmaking.Aself-administeredonline

surveywasconductedusinggoogledocumentstocollectprimarydatafromarandom

sample.Thereasonsforchoosinganonlinesurveyoveranyothermeansofsurveys

were flexibility, time efficiency and real time access. Google documents was the

easiesttooltouseforthispurposeasitofferedflexibledesignsandrealtimeaccess

tospreadsheetsandgraphsrelatedtothesurvey.Dataforindependentvariableswas

collectedtoexaminetheirimpactondependentvariables.Atotalof88surveyswere

collected during the period ofMay 20th 2016 to June 1st 2016.Due to invalid and

incompleteresponses,9surveyshadtobetakenoutofthesample,reducingthetotal

numberofvalidsurveysforevaluationto79.

3.1 ResearchMethodsandInstruments

Thestudywascarriedandcreatedonlinewithanapplicationbygoogledocs,which

guarantees anonymity towhoever participates. Due to the possibility of achieving

resultswithawidergeographicalreach,thestudywaspublishedonsocialmedia.The

questionnairewasonlyavailableinEnglishandprimarilysetupwithmultiplechoice

andLikertscalequestions.Inthefirstpartofthesurvey,respondentshadtoanswer

questionsrelatingtotheir travelbehavior, riskperceptionsandtheirperceptionof

theinfluenceofmediacoverage.Thesecondpartofthesurveyrequiredrespondents

toprovidepersonal informationabout themselves, suchasage,gender,education

andnumberofchildren.Withthehelpoftheseindependentvariables,apivottable

in excelwasused tomake cross-tabulationswithdependent variables. TheMann-

WhitneyUtestwasusedtotestforsignificancebetweentwoindependentvariables

andthePearsoncorrelationcoefficientwasusedtodetermineapositiveornegative

relationship between two sets of data that were tested on a Likert scale. The

calculationswhereprocessedwithMicrosoftExcelSpreadsheets.

35

3.2 SampleDescription

The survey’s sample consisted of 51 females (64,6%) and 28males (35,4%).With

regardstotherespondent’scountryofresidence,outof88,6%thatstatedthatthey

liveinEurope,65,8%arecurrentlyresidinginAustria.Duetothefactthat49,4%of

the respondents stated that they are currently studying at university, the most

commonagegroupselectedwas18-25(57%).Thesecondmostcommonselectedage

groupwas40-60,whichcameupto24,1%.

Respondentswerealsoaskedtostatewhethertheyhavechildrenornot,whichagain

duetotherelativelyyoungsampleresulted in69,6%statingthattheydonothave

children.Thesurveyendedwithaquestionrelatingtothesurveyparticipant’stravel

behaviorduringonecalendaryear.44,3%respondedthattheytravel3-5timesper

yearoutsidetheircountryofresidence,whereas31,6%statedthattheytravelmore

than6timesand24,1%statedthattheytravelonlyonceortwiceperyear.

Figure4:Age

Figure3:LevelofEducation

Figure5:Tripstakenperyear

36

4 Results

Thesurveystartedwithquestionsrelatingtotherespondent’stravelbehavior.The

results showed that the great majority of respondents (69,6%) have visited a

destinationthathasbeenaffectedbyterrorisminthepastfiveyears.SinceAustria

turnedouttobethecountryofresidenceformostsurveytakers(65,8%), itmakes

sensetotakeacloserlookontravelbehaviorofthisspecificsample.75%ofpeople

residingAustriastatedtohavevisitedacountryaffectedbyterrorisminthepastfive

yearsandbytakingEuropeasawholeasasample,thisresultedin70%statingtohave

visitedacountrythathasbeenaffectedbyterrorisminthepastfiveyears.

Thetwobiggestagegroupsfoundinthissurveywereage18to25(57%)andage40

to60(24,1%).While31,6%ofthe40to60agegroupstatedtheyhadnotvisiteda

destination affected by terrorism in the past 5 years, only 22,2% of the younger

generationchose“No”asananswertothisquestion.

Table2:Countryofresidenceandvisitationofcountryaffectedbyterrorism

Table3:Europeandvisitedacountryaffectedbyterrorism

37

Astothequestionwhethertoconsidervisitingacountryaffectedbyterrorisminthe

future,respondentswereaskedtomarktheirwillingnessonafivepointLikertscale.

1 indicated “yes”, 2 indicated “probably”, 3 indicated “moderate”, 4 indicated

“probablynot”and5indicated“no,notatall”.23outof79surveytakers,answered

thisquestionwith“moderate”,resultinginanaveragemeanof2,6.AsseeninFigure

5, the majority of survey participants indicated a strong or somewhat moderate

willingness to travel to a destination affected by terrorism, as opposed to 22,8%

statingtoprobablynotornotatallvisitsuchdestination.

Figure6:Willingnesstovisitdestinationaffectedbyterrorism

By cross-tabulating thewillingness to travel to an area that has been affected by

terrorismwithpeoplethatstatedtobelivinginEurope,theaveragemeandecreased

to2,2, indicatingthatEuropeanresidentsshowhighermotivationandreadinessto

takeonriskcomparedtoNon-Europeans,whoshowedanaveragemeanof2,8.By

splitting the sample into two age groups, <30 years of age and >30 years of age,

calculationsofthemeanforbothgroups,showedahighermotivationandwillingness

totravelintheyoungeragegroup(2,4)comparedtothe30yearsofageandolder

group(2,9).TheMann-WhitneyUtesthowever,doesnotshowasignificantenough

result(p=0,9102).

Table4aand4b:Willingnesstotravel(agegroups&livinginEurope)

38

Whilegenderdidn’tshowanysignificantdifferencesinwhetherornotsurveytakers

havevisitedadestinationthathasbeenaffectedbyterrorism,itdidshowinteresting

results when cross-tabulated with willingness to travel. Women are significantly

(p=0,00194) more reluctant (mean=2,9) to travel to an area affected by terror,

compared tomen (mean=2,0). Furthermore, individuals with children seem to be

more hesitant to take a vacation at a terror stricken destination, as opposed to

individualswithnochildren.Withregard to levelofeducation,travelbehaviordid

differentiate between groups. Individuals currently studying or holding a bachelor

degree proved to be higher risk takers in contrast to people holding a secondary

schoolcertificateandmasteranddoctoratedegree.Basedonthesefindings,wehave

toassume thatpeople indicating that theyare currently studyingatuniversity are

somewhere in their twenties and asmentioned before, the younger generation is

willing to take on more risk and travel to a destination affected by terrorism.

Additionally,surveytakerswereaskedtoindicatetheamountoftripstheytakeper

year.Notsurprisingly,thegroupthatstatedtheytravelmorethan6timesperyear,

resulted inanaveragemeanof2,0on thewillingness to travel scale compared to

peopletravelling3-5times(2,4)oronceortwiceperyear(3,3), indicatingthatthe

morepeopletravelthemoretheywouldbewillingtovisitadestinationaffectedby

terrorism. The the Pearson correlation coefficient however, shows only a weak

negativecorrelation(r=-0,2906).

After evaluating the willingness to

travel, survey takers were asked to

indicateafterwhatperiodoftimethey

would or have visited a destination

affected by terrorism. 31,6% indicated

they would visit such a destination

after one year, whereas 22,8%

indicatedtheywouldvisitsuchadestinationafter3months.Surprisingly,15,2%state

theywouldbewillingtotravelstraightaway.Cross-tabulationswiththeageofthe

participantsshowednodistinctdifferencesintheamountoftimetheywouldwait.

Also,thenumberofchildrenandthelevelofeducationdidnotaffecttheresults.Even

gender,which so fardid showdifferences inanswers,didnothaveany significant

influenceontheoutcome.

Figure7:Amountoftimetowaitbeforevisitingadestinationthathasbeenaffectedbyterrorism

39

Concerningthesafetylevel,theprimarycountrythisdataanalysiswillbefocusingon

isAustria,asitrepresentsthelargestgroupoutofthesample.88,5%ofAustriansfeel

very or somewhat safe in their country and no differencewas foundwhen cross-

tabulating Europeans and Non-Europeans. However, 20% of women living Europe

consider their country of residence only moderately safe or somewhat unsafe,

comparedto0%ofmen.Nosignificantdifferencesbetweenperceptionofsafetylevel

andage,educationallevelornumberofchildrenwasfound.

Table5:Gender,livinginEurope&levelofsafety

FollowingtheresultsofhighsafetylevelperceptionsofAustrians,53,8%believethat

aterroristattackisveryunlikelytosomewhatunlikely.However,40,4%indicatedthat

aterroristattackismoderatelylikelyand5,8%believethatsuchanattackissomewhat

likely.SurveytakersfromothercountriessuchasSpain,FranceandGermanyperceive

theircountrytobeatriskonatleastamoderatelevel.Eventhoughthenon-European

surveytakersmakeuptheminorityofthissample,itisworthmentioningthat7out

of 9 non-European citizens perceive their country of residence at a moderate or

somewhathighriskoffacingterrorisminthefuture.

Acomparisonofriskperceptionsofdifferentworldregionsshowedthatsomeregions

are perceived to be on a similar scale. Respondentswere asked to rank their risk

perceptiononafive-pointscale,with“1”indicatingthattheregionisverysafewhen

itcomestoterrorismand“5”indicatingthattheregionisverydangerousandprone

toterrorattacks.Europe’smeanaveragedat3,3andNorthAmerica’sat2,9.Asseen

in Figure 6 and 7, both regions show a high peak in the middle, however, risk

perceptionsaboutEuropetendtomovetothe“riskier”rightsideofthescale,while

NorthAmerica’sriskperceptionstendtomovetothe“safer”leftsideofthescale.

40

Figure8:Europeriskperception

Figure9:NorthAmericariskperception

Outofallsevenregions,AustralasiaandCentralandSouthAmericawereperceived

asthesafest,withmeansof1,8and2,5,respectively.AsiaandAfricawereperceived

asriskyonamoderatelevelwithmeansof2,6and2,7,respectively.Theregionwith

highestperceivedriskturnedouttobetheMiddleEastwithanaveragemeanof4,0.

Thismost certainlydoesnot comeasa surprisedue to theongoingactsof terror.

Whatdoescomeasasurpriseisthatoutofallsevenregions,Europeshowsthesecond

highest mean after the Middle East (3,3), indicating that the risk of terrorism is

perceived as being on a moderate to somewhat high level. Furthermore, non-

European citizens perceive Europe to be less risky compared to Europeans, with

meansof3,7and3,2,respectively(seeAppendix1formoregraphs).

Figure10:MiddleEastriskperception

41

Cross-tabulatingriskperceptionswithageasanindependentvariableonlyhadminor

influencesontheresults.Foranyregionthemaximumdeviationbetweenthemeans

ofbothagegroupswas0,4,notsignificantenoughtomakefurthercalculationson

significance.Genderhowever,influencedriskperceptiontoacertainextent,suchas

thatmenperceive theMiddle East as riskier andmoreprone to terrorism (3,9) in

comparison to women (4,3). Europe and North America on the other hand, were

perceivedasriskierregionsbywomen.Australasia,CentralandSouthAmerica,Asia

andAfrica did not showany significant differences in gender cross-tabulations. As

mentionedbefore,riskperceptionisarathervagueexpression,as itbringsa lotof

confusionwithit.Asparticipantswereonlyaskedtoindicatethelevelofperceived

riskintheseregions,nodataconcerningthethoughtsthatmotivatedtorankthese

risk perceptions is available. Different factors could have influenced the decision

making process for these questions, such as reading a newspaper article about

terrorismintheMiddleEastjustafewmomentsbeforeparticipatinginthissurvey,

leadingtoperceivingthisregionasriskier.

These thoughts were confirmed with

60,8% stating that the perceived risk of

facing terrorism in Europe is higher than

the actual risk.Quite distinct differences

between men and women were found

concerning this question. 78,6% of men

statedtheybelievethatperceivedriskishigherthanactualrisk,whereasonly51%of

women stated so, indicating that more women than men see the risk of facing

terrorismbeingexaggerated.Whilegendershoweddisparitiesbetweenperceivedrisk

and actual risk, no significant differences where found between age groups. To

facilitatetheanalysisforthispurpose,agegroupsweredividedintotwogroups,under

30yearsofageandover30yearsofage.59,2%oftheyoungergenerationagreedto

perceivedriskbeinghigherthanactualrisk,incontrastto65,5%oftheover30years

ofagegroup.Nosignificantdifferenceswerefoundwhencross-tabulatingwithother

independentvariablessuchastheamountoftripsoutsidethecountryofresidence

peryearandnumberofchildren.

Figure11:Isperceivedriskhigherthanactualrisk?

42

Thelastsectionofthesurveyrequiredparticipantstoanswer

a question relating to media coverage. A five point Likert

scale was provided to answer how much negative media

coverage influences travel decision making. “1” indicated

thatnegativemedia influences traveldecisionmakingvery

much, whereas “5” indicated that there is no relation

between the two. The mean averaged to 2,7 for all

participants, women however tend to bemore influenced

(2,4) thanmen (3,2). As seen in Table 7, this is proved by

p=0,0023, suggesting a high significance level using the

Mann-WhitneyUtest.

Forthepurposeofthisthesis,thepopulationsamplewasagainsplitintwoagegroups

(<30yearsofageand>30yearsofage)tomakecross-tabulationswiththeinfluence

ofmedia.Calculationsofthemeanshowthattheyoungergeneration(2,4)tendtobe

more influenced by themedia than the older generation (3,2). This is statistically

supportedbyasignificancelevelofp=0,008usingtheMann-WhitneyUtest.

Figure12:Influenceofmediacoverage(1-verymuch,5-notatall)

Other variables such as number of children and level of education did show

differencesinaveragemeans.Thisishighlyprobablyduetothelinkedagesofboth

variables.Mostindividualswithchildrenthattookpartinthissurveyareover30years

of age and individuals holding master degrees, doctorate degrees and PhDs also

belongtotheolderagegroup.Theamountoftripsperyear,aswellasthecountryof

residencealsodidnotshowanysignificantdifferences.

Table6:Mann-WhitneyUtestforgenderandmedia

43

5 DiscussionandLimitations

The study results suggest that there are differences in perceptions and behavior

towardsdestinationsbetweenpopulationgroups.However,previousresearchinthe

field of travel behavior have primarily focused on the end result such as making

decisionsregardingtheoutcomeofthedestinationratherthanfocusingonthewhole

processofmakingthesetraveldecisions(Jeng&Fesenmaier,2002).Doingresearch

andstudiesinthisfieldcanbecomplicatedduetothewidevarietyofdifferentfactors

influencingtraveldecisionmaking.Oneofthesefactorstestedinthisstudywasthe

influenceofnegativemediacoverageandtheresultsshowedthatagreatmajorityof

people tend to get moderately to somewhat possibly influenced by media. As

proposedbyPizam(2000),thisismostprobablyduetotechnologicalimprovements,

suchaslivebroadcasts,socialmediaandinstantmessaging.Thedatashowsthatthe

younger generation tends to get more influenced by media coverage than older

people, confirmingH5b The younger generation tends to get more influenced by

mediacoveragethantheoldergeneration.Asignificancelevelofp=0,008statistically

supportsthishypothesis.Asforthereasonfortheseresults,onlyassumptionscanbe

made,assurveyparticipantswerenotaskedtoclarifythereasonsfortheiranswer

choices.Regardingthedataanalysis,H5awomenandmenareinfluencedequallyby

media coverage is rejected since the spread of means between both population

groupswassignificant,statisticallysupportedbyp=0,0023,provingthatwomenare

moreinfluencedbymediathanmen.

With regard to thestudycarriedout for thepurposeof thispaper,H1There isno

differenceinbehaviortowardsdestinationsbetweenmalesandfemaleswasrejected.

This is due to multiple factors. Even though women and men did not show any

differenceswhetherornottheyhadvisitedadestinationthathasbeenaffectedby

terrorism, results showed that women are significantly more reluctant to visit a

destinationaffectedbyterrorisminthefuture.Furthermore,thesurveyshowedthat

menwouldconsidertakingonmorerisksthanwomen.H2Individualsthattravelmore

often, showhigherwillingness to travel todestinations thathavebeenaffectedby

terrorismwasrejected.CalculationsofthePearsoncorrelationCoefficientdidshowa

negativecorrelation,howevernotstrongenoughtobesignificant.Aftercomparing

agegroupstoeachotherH3Theyoungergeneration(<30years)showsriskiertravel

44

decision making behavior and lower risk perceptions than others in terms of the

amountoftimetowaitbeforevisitingadestinationafterterrorattackswasrejected.

While comparisons between the average means of both age groups in terms of

willingness to travel toadestination thathasbeenaffectedby terrorismdidshow

differences,theywerenotsignificantenough.Thesameappliestoriskperceptions

about different regions of the world. Only a maximum deviation of 0,4 between

meanswasfoundbetweenthetwoagegroupstested.H4 Individualswithchildren

showmorecautioustravelbehaviorthanindividualswithnochildrenwasaccepted.

Individualswithchildrenshowalowerwillingnesstotraveltoadestinationthathas

been affected by terrorism than individualswith no children. Thiswas statistically

supportedbyasignificancelevelof0,0083intheMann-WhitneyUtest.

Limitations other than previouslymentioned include the fact that the samplewas

randomlychosen,makingroomforthepossibilityofsamplingerrors.Furthermore,

theresultsarenotgeneralizabletothegeneralpopulation.Thestudywasopento

citizens of all countries, however due to the geographical position concerning the

publicationof thestudy,most survey takers turnedoutbe fromAustriaandother

Europeancountries.Thisresulted inunbalancedpopulationsizesofEuropeansand

non-Europeans and putting more weight on Austrians specifically. This required

thelimitationofsomecross-tabulationstoAustriancitizensonly,inordertolimitthe

possibility of receiving results with high weight on outliers. Similarly, age groups

focusedontwooutoffiveagegroups,18-25yearsand40-60years.Inordertoavoid

outliers,theotherremainingagegroupswereleftout,whereapplicable,forcross-

tabulations. Terms such as “younger generation” and “older generation” are not

generalizabletothegeneralpublic.Thesetermsweresolelyusedforthepurposeof

thisthesistofacilitatecalculations.Regardingotherlimitations,itisworthnotingthat

evenwithahighlevelofconcentrationandaccuracy,humanandsystemerrorscan

occur.

45

6 ConclusionandFuturePrognosis

Toconclude, it canbesaid thatsomepersonaldemographiccharacteristicshavea

larger impactonone’straveldecisionmakingandtravelbehaviorthanothers.Age

andgenderforinstanceshowedmoresignificantdifferencesbetweenanswersthan

levelofeducationandnumberofchildren.Literature,however,statesthat levelof

educationandnumberofchildrenhavesubstantialinfluenceonpurchasingbehavior.

Inthesurveyconductedforthepurposeofthispaper,themajorityofrespondents

werestudentsorpeopleholdingabachelordegree,hencenodirectinfluenceoflevel

ofeducationcouldhavebeenmeasured.

Allinall,researchinthisfieldoftourismisdifficultonmanylevels,astheTourismand

Terrorism relationship constantly changes over time. New factors have to be

accounted for, such as technological improvements in order to make accurate

predictions about travel behavior and decision making. Now more than ever

governmentsarefacedwithprovidinghighsafetylevelsfortheircitizensandtourists,

whichasaresultcanalso leadtohighperceivedrisk.Asaresult, it isnecessaryto

conductfurtherresearchabouttherightbalanceofhighsafetylevelsandhighmedia

coverageanditseffectonperceivedrisk.Anotherfactorinfluencingresearchinthis

fieldoftourismisthedifferencebetweenshort-termandlong-termdisruptions.Due

totheeconomicinstabilityoftheMiddleEast,Europeisfacedwithexperiencingmany

new long-termchanges to its social structureand itwill takemanyyears to finally

makeconclusionsoftheimpactoftheMiddleEast’scrisisonEurope.WilltheMiddle

East countries be able to rebuild their destination image? How long will Europe,

specificallyBelgium,FranceandTurkeyfeeltheeffectsofterrorisminitscountries?

Willperceivedriskincreaseovertimewiththeamountofterroristattackshappening?

Allofthesequestionswillhavetoandhopefullywillbeansweredinthefuture.

46

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Appendices

Appendix1

AppendixFigure1:CentralandSouthAmericariskperception

AppendixFigure2:Africariskperception

AppendixFigure3:Asiariskperception

52

AppendixFigure4:Australasiariskperception

Appendix2

SurveyQuestions

TravelBehavior

53

Countryofresidence

54

Howriskydoyouperceivethefollowingregionstobe(intermsofterrorism)?

55

MediaCoverage

Demographics

56