pechakucha climate change fingerprint analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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climate change fingerprint
Parmesan & Yohe 2003
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fingerprint paradigm brilliant
simplification
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global change is correlational
IPCC
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actual temperature change
IPCC 2014 values
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predicted temperature change
IPCC 2014 values
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species change
synthesis & consilience
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two competing domains to infer species change
biologists economists
weakpersistent
important now
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resolution
test responses to climate change in two ways
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biologists = meta-analysis
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biologists = meta-analysis
shifts in range or distributions
99 species of birds upwards 6.1km/decade
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biologists = meta-analysis
172 species of plants & animals earlier by 2.3 days
677 species, 62% towards spring advancement
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biologists = meta-analysis
893 species, only 27% had stable distributions
434 species, 80% shifted matching climate change
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economists = probabilistic
proportion of species that do not conform to climate change
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binomial probability model
economists = probabilistic
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economists = probabilistic
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economists = probabilistic
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biologists economists
weakpersistent
important now
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1570 species, 95% confidence of a global climate change fingerprint
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the overall effects of most confounding factors decline with increasing numbers of species/systems studied
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IPCC 2014 likelihood of staying below a specific temperature
only below 4C is likely
fingerprint of climate change viable approach