PEAK OILPEAK OIL

GLOBALGLOBALWARMINGWARMING

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

THE LONG EMERGENCYTHE LONG EMERGENCY

1970

Today

www.lastoilshock.comwww.lastoilshock.com

Oil producers (98)

““The world has never faced a problem The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation…like this. Without massive mitigation…

the problem will be pervasive and will not the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions be temporary. Previous energy transitions

were gradual and evolutionary. were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.”

The Hirsch ReportThe Hirsch ReportU.S. Department of EnergyU.S. Department of Energy

February 2005February 2005

““It is quite likely that the time interval before It is quite likely that the time interval before the global peak occurs will be briefer than the global peak occurs will be briefer than

the period required for societies the period required for societies to adapt themselves painlessly to adapt themselves painlessly to a different energy regime.”to a different energy regime.”

——Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPeak Everything:Peak Everything:

Waking Up to a Century of DeclinesWaking Up to a Century of Declines

““Predictions are always difficult, Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.”especially about the future.”

——Neils Bohr, Quantum PhysicistNeils Bohr, Quantum Physicist

After peaking of global oil production, After peaking of global oil production, exports cease exports cease in only nine yearsin only nine years, , far faster far faster than overall oil production.than overall oil production.

Exports decline at an Exports decline at an accelerating rateaccelerating rate, , starting at about -13% and ending at about starting at about -13% and ending at about -48%, averaging about -29% per year over -48%, averaging about -29% per year over the 8 years of decline.the 8 years of decline.

Only about 10% of the oil produced after Only about 10% of the oil produced after the peak is ever exported!the peak is ever exported!

““We have at most ten years—not ten years to We have at most ten years—not ten years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter decide upon action, but ten years to alter

fundamentally the trajectory of global fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions.”greenhouse gas emissions.”

——James HansenJames HansenDirectorDirector

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASAGoddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA

““The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns The second half of the Age of Oil now dawns and will be marked by the decline of oil and and will be marked by the decline of oil and

all that depends on it, including financial all that depends on it, including financial capital. It heralds the collapse of the present capital. It heralds the collapse of the present

financial system, and the related political financial system, and the related political structures… I am speaking of a second Great structures… I am speaking of a second Great

Depression.”Depression.”

Colin Campbell, Ph.D.Colin Campbell, Ph.D.ASPO Conference 2003ASPO Conference 2003

““The world oil production peak represents an The world oil production peak represents an unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak unprecedented economic crisis that will wreak

havoc on national economies, topple havoc on national economies, topple governments, alter national boundaries, governments, alter national boundaries, provoke military strife, and challenge the provoke military strife, and challenge the

continuation of civilized life.”continuation of civilized life.”

James Howard KunstlerJames Howard KunstlerThe Long EmergencyThe Long Emergency

““The apparent fact that the world has reached The apparent fact that the world has reached the end of economic growth as we have the end of economic growth as we have

known it is momentous information. It needs to known it is momentous information. It needs to get to as many people as possible, get to as many people as possible,

and as soon as possible, and as soon as possible, ifif we collectively we collectively are going to be able to plan for contraction are going to be able to plan for contraction

and manage the transition away from and manage the transition away from fossil fuels without succumbing to rapid, chaotic fossil fuels without succumbing to rapid, chaotic

civilizational collapse…”civilizational collapse…”

——Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPost Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute

PEAK OILPEAK OIL

GLOBALGLOBALWARMINGWARMING

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

THE LONG EMERGENCYTHE LONG EMERGENCY

““We have trouble visualizing decline as We have trouble visualizing decline as positive, but this simply reflects the positive, but this simply reflects the

dominance of our prior culture of growth… dominance of our prior culture of growth… The real issue The real issue

of our age is how we make of our age is how we make a graceful and ethical descent.” a graceful and ethical descent.”

David HolmgrenDavid HolmgrenPermaculture: Principles and PathwaysPermaculture: Principles and Pathways

Beyond SustainabilityBeyond Sustainability

““I use the term ‘descent’ as the least loaded I use the term ‘descent’ as the least loaded word that honestly conveys the inevitable, word that honestly conveys the inevitable, radical reduction of material consumption radical reduction of material consumption

and/or human numbers that will characterize and/or human numbers that will characterize the declining decades and centuries of fossil the declining decades and centuries of fossil

fuel abundance and availability.” fuel abundance and availability.”

——David HolmgrenDavid HolmgrenPermaculture: Principles and PathwaysPermaculture: Principles and Pathways

Beyond SustainabilityBeyond Sustainability

““It’s like growing old. You can’t solve that. It’s like growing old. You can’t solve that. However, you can choose to respond However, you can choose to respond

respectfully, wisely and imaginatively to it, so respectfully, wisely and imaginatively to it, so that even ageing can become a source of that even ageing can become a source of

unexpected riches.” unexpected riches.”

Richard HeinbergRichard Heinberg

““Let us give thanks for this extraordinary Let us give thanks for this extraordinary period of human history we lived through. period of human history we lived through. Let us recognize that we are moving into a Let us recognize that we are moving into a new phase of history. Let’s be brave and new phase of history. Let’s be brave and wise about it, and prepare to move on.”wise about it, and prepare to move on.”

James Howard KunstlerJames Howard KunstlerThe Long EmergencyThe Long Emergency

““The Long Emergency is an opportunity to The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause, to think through our present course, pause, to think through our present course,

and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had best face facts: we really have no choice. had best face facts: we really have no choice.

The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot

better. Let’s not squander this moment.”better. Let’s not squander this moment.”

——Albert Bates (paraphrased)Albert Bates (paraphrased)The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and CookbookThe Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

““Inherent within the challenges of peak oil Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary and climate change is an extraordinary

opportunity to reinvent, rethink opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us.” and rebuild the world around us.”

——Rob HopkinsRob HopkinsThe Transition HandbookThe Transition Handbook

““If you look at the science about what is If you look at the science about what is happening on earth and aren’t pessimistic, happening on earth and aren’t pessimistic, you don’t understand the data. But if you you don’t understand the data. But if you

meet the people who are working to restore meet the people who are working to restore this earth and the lives of the poor, and you this earth and the lives of the poor, and you aren’t optimistic, you haven’t got a pulse.” aren’t optimistic, you haven’t got a pulse.”

——Paul HawkenPaul Hawken

The challenge of global climate change The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survivalnecessary for planetary survival..

The impending peak in oil and gas The impending peak in oil and gas production means that production means that the transition is the transition is inevitableinevitable..

Our only choice is whether to Our only choice is whether to proactively proactively undertake the transitionundertake the transition now—or later. now—or later.

Transition Initiatives make the transition Transition Initiatives make the transition feasible, viable and attractive.feasible, viable and attractive.

““I believe that a lower-energy, more localized I believe that a lower-energy, more localized future, in which we move from being future, in which we move from being

consumers to being producer/consumers, consumers to being producer/consumers, where food, energy and other essentials are where food, energy and other essentials are

locally produced, local economies are locally produced, local economies are strengthened and we have learned to live more strengthened and we have learned to live more within our means is a step towards something within our means is a step towards something extraordinary, not a step away from something extraordinary, not a step away from something

inherently irreplaceable.” inherently irreplaceable.”

——Rob HopkinsRob HopkinsThe Transition HandbookThe Transition Handbook

Local production of food, energy and goodsLocal production of food, energy and goods Local development of currency, government Local development of currency, government

and cultureand culture Reducing consumption while improving Reducing consumption while improving

environmental and social conditionsenvironmental and social conditions Developing exemplary communities that Developing exemplary communities that

can be working models for other can be working models for other communities when the effects of energy communities when the effects of energy decline become more intensedecline become more intense

““The most radical thing The most radical thing you can do you can do

is stay home.”is stay home.”——Gary SnyderGary Snyder

Percentage of food consumed Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced locally that was produced within a given radiuswithin a given radius

Ratio of car parking space to Ratio of car parking space to productive land useproductive land use

Degree of engagement in Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work practical relocalization work by local communityby local community

Amount of traffic on local Amount of traffic on local roadsroads

Number of businesses owned Number of businesses owned by local peopleby local people

Percentage of local trade Percentage of local trade carried out in local currencycarried out in local currency

Proportion of the community Proportion of the community employed locallyemployed locally

Percentage of essential goods Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given manufactured within a given radiusradius

Percentage of local building Percentage of local building materials used in new materials used in new housing developmentshousing developments

Number of 16-year-olds able Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given of vegetables to a given degree of basic competencydegree of basic competency

Percentage of medicines Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have prescribed locally that have been produced within a given been produced within a given radiusradius