19-21 September 2011 - Davos, Switzerland.

World Resources Forum

Peak minerals & resource sustainability: across commodity analysis

Damien Giurco Tim PriorLeah MasonSteve Mohr

Institute for Sustainable FuturesUniversity of Technology, Sydney

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CSIRO Mineral Futures Collaboration Cluster : Commodity Futures (P1)

1. Peak minerals

• Profile impacts: social, environmental

• Dynamics & indicators to inform response

• What role for technology and policy ?

2. Foresight

• Future scenarios and visions for the minerals industry in a sustainable Australia

• Link scenarios to technology (P2) and regional futures (P3)

Resource governance

for long term benefit

www.resourcefutures.net.auDamien Giurco Institute for Sustainable Futures; University of Technology, Sydney 2

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Key themes for this presentation

• Resource sustainability and ethical uses– Services required in sustainable economy; which from metals?

• Peak minerals: beyond ‘what year will production peak?’– reflects progression from cheaper/easier to complex/expensive

• Mason et al 2011 assess severity of peak minerals as– resource AVAILABILITY

– societal ADDICTION

– transition ALTERNATIVES

• Factors affecting production curves and options for sustainable resource management vary by commodity

1. Technological innovation, 2. Policy, 3. Resource conservation

Damien Giurco Institute for Sustainable Futures; University of Technology, Sydney 3

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Peak minerals metaphor: from easy/cheap to complex/expensive

Source: adapted from Giurco et al. 2010, Peak minerals in Australia

time

Annu

al n

ation

al p

rodu

ction

(t) lower costs/impacts*

higher ore gradesshallower mines

simple oreslow mine waste

higher costs/impacts*lower ore grades

deeper minescomplex /refractory ores

more mine waste

*costs and impacts are social, economic, environmental

year of peak production

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Ore grades declining: Copper & Nickel (Aust, Canada, USA)

Source: Mudd, 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

Me

tal

Ore

Gra

de

(%

Cu

, %

Ni)

Australia (%Cu)

Canada (%Cu)

Australia (%Ni)

Canada (%Ni)

USA (%Cu)

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Ore

gra

de (

% C

u, %

Ni)

1900 1930 1960 1990

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Energy consumption in Australian mining: rising intensity – 50% in 15 years

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Historical Production:Coal - UK

Source: Courtesy of Dave Rutledge, Caltech

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Coal – peak global production within decade

Damien Giurco Institute for Sustainable Futures; University of Technology, Sydney 9

RegionPeak

Year

Max

Prodn

(Gt/y)

Africa 2039 0.4

Asia 2016 4.7

Australia 2060 1.1

Europe 1973 0.6

FSU 2202 1.4

North

America2065 1.7

South

America2029 0.2

Total 2017 7.6Source: authors

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Peak minerals:Copper – Australia

Source: Mudd and Ward 2008

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175

An

nu

al C

op

per

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Mt

Cu

)

Actual

Modelled

AUSTRALIA

1825 1925 2025 2125

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0

Ann

ual C

oppe

r P

rodu

ctio

n (M

t C

u)

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Changing impacts over time – Copper in Australia

Source: Memary, Giurco et al (forthcoming Journal of Cleaner Production)

TOTAL

PERt/Cu

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Peak minerals framework - Copper

Availability Addiction Alternatives

Cu Sulfides dominate; Cu oxides unprofitable

Expansion of Olympic Dam mine dominates

Uses are diverse (wires, pipes, electronics)

Electricity: Al can sub.

Pipes: Plastic subs.

Recycling an important alternative to mining

Australia currently makes more money from export of mining software than export of refined copper

Issue for Australia

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Peak minerals framework - Coal

Availability Addiction Alternatives

Worldwide, coal will peak before gas (Mohr, 2010)

Australia: availability will be constrained not only from physical scarcity, also farm land conflict

Uses link heavily with other sectors: electricity, steel, cement.

Future use will be affected by carbon taxes and CCS viability.

•For electricity, energy efficiency and cleaner energy are alternatives.

•As a reductant (e.g. steel making) biomass has potential

Australia gets over 50% of export revenues from mining; mainly coal & iron oreCoal dominates Australia's electricity mix currently

Issue for Australia

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Peak minerals framework - Gold

Availability Addiction Alternatives

Volatile: Historical peaks in Australia affected by ore discoveries; technology (CIP); policy.

World stocks above ground (122,000 t) greater than below ground (100,000 t).

Uses are predominantly jewellery then bullion

Getting 2g of gold for a wedding ring requires 10t or ore (at 0.2g/t) versus 10kg of mobile phone scrap at 200g/t Au.

Are there other ways to provide the societal value or services derived from gold jewellery and bullion?

Australia is number 2 global producer of gold behind China, what underpins our future competitiveness – "Brand Australia Gold", i.e. being a supplier of gold with good environmental / social credentials (cf. Responsible Jewellery Council).

Issue for Australia

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Peak minerals framework - Lithium

Availability Addiction Alternatives

Australia largest hardrock supplier of Li

Near term availability not constrained by geological factors

Small but growing market in batteries – demand depends on uptake of electric vehicles and alternative battery technologies not using lithium

Alternatives to dig and sell business model....Is there a useful role for a product-service system leasing lithium across mines; battery suppliers and electric vehicles?

Developing cost-effective technology for converting lithium from hardrock to carbonate (more readily derived from brines) for use in batteries will underpin competitiveness

Issue for Australia

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Conclusion

• Peak minerals useful for mapping life-of-resource challenges and transition thinking – services required in a sustainable economy

• Framework of - availability - addiction - alternatives is useful for comparing challenges across commodities and potential intervention points for more sustainable resource management

Damien Giurco Institute for Sustainable Futures; University of Technology, Sydney 16

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Contact details

Damien Giurco,

Institute for Sustainable Futures,

University of Technology, Sydney

Tel: +61 2 9514 4978

Damien.Giurco@uts.edu.au www.resourcefutures.net.au

CSIRO and collaborating partners are gratefully acknowledged for funding this research

www.isf.uts.edu.au

Mineral futures collaboration cluster

www.csiro.au/partnerships/mineral-futures-collaboration-cluster.html