pax 2009-the future of games

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You Don’t Know What You’re Going to Get

The Future of Gaming


Who Am I?

ANDREW MAYER• 17 Years in the industry:

- Original Producer/Designer on Petz

- Senior Designer at Psygnosis San Francisco

- Creative Director at Cartoon Network Online

- Casual Games developer at Playfirst

- Social Games Consultant


The State of the Game



Some Assumptions (for the sake of argument)

• Piracy sucks

• DRM sucks

Piracy and DRM



• For better and worse Piracy and DRM have killed the PC gaming market as we once knew (and loved) it.

• No DRM means you need to find ways to make $$$ when people are paying nothing to play.

• This drives new models.

Piracy and DRM



• Many of the innovations that are going to drive “the next generation” are already here.

• It’s no longer about processors and video cards.

• Free games need a much bigger audience.– Grow your users or die!

The Future is Now

NEW RULES NOT NEW HARDWARE


State of the Game

• But the lines are still blurry.

• And it’s even harder to see when it’s not technology driven.

• But it’s getting clearer every day.

The Future is NowTHE PIECES ARE IN PLACE


Where we Play

• Hardcore games are going niche. – Already seeing a contraction in the market. – Fewer players grabbing a bigger share. – More cool “indie titles”.

• Virtual goods and pay to play are taking off. – And that’s bleeding into the design.

The Old Games IndustryWHAT’S HAPPENING TO THE HARDCORE?



• There’s still $60 hardcore games being made, but there isn’t as much growth.

• Even the old is new. – Stuff like Nazi Zombies & Fallout downloads

• The big boys want a slice of the tasty new piewith that delicious mainstream audience.

The Old Games IndustryTHINGS ARE CHANGING



• The foundation of the next hardcore generation

• Turns out WOW really did change everything.

• People are willing to pay (and pay) for these experiences.

The Old Games IndustryJUST ADD CO-OP & MULTIPLAYER



• Twitter, Facebook, Myspace, Kongregate etc.

• Smaller games are making big $$$ – Virtual goods alone will be $1.8 Billion this year.

• Small companies are making real money.– You may not love the games, but developers are lovable

again.

The New Games IndustrySMALL IS THE NEW BIG


State of the Game

• Hardcore games go niche. – Already seeing a contraction in the market. – Fewer publishers grabbing a bigger share. – More cool “indie titles”.– More event titles.

• Virtual goods, co-op and pay-to-play take off.

The New Games IndustrySO WHAT HAPPENS TO THE HARDCORE?


Where We Play


Where we Play

• The PC

• The Entertainment Box

• Portable Devices

The BasicsWHERE DO WE PLAY VIDEO GAMES?


Where we Play

• Notebooks and Netbooks are now appliances.

• Huge monitors cost less every day.

• Even low end machines have pretty decent 3D graphics.

• Developers are much better at hiding scaling issues in the software.

The PCCOMPUTERS ARE CHEAPER THAN EVER


Where we Play

• Machines that just work. (Even windows).

• The technology curve is slowing down so things are more stable and/or better built.

• Users no longer have a big wish list of innovations.

The PCUSER FRIENDLIER


Where we Play

• The PC is still the home of the most popular games in the world.

• Still proving ground for new ideas.

• Still the home of the truly hardcore.

The PC

EVERYTHING DOMED IS NEW AGAIN


Where we Play

• Dedicated • Closed (mostly)– Most people don’t pirate.– Allows you to make deals with big licensors across all

mediums. (Games, TV, Music, etc.)• In the living room.• Led by Guitar Hero/Rock Band

The Entertainment Box

THE CONSOLE


Price Matters

Where we PlayThe Entertainment Box

THE LESSON OF NINTENDO


Where we Play

Price Matters


THE LESSON OF SONY


Where we Play

• Whether your opponent is busy making a killing or killing themselvesALWAYS PAY ATTENTION.

• The 360 is a fundamentally different platform from the one it started out as, and it ain’t over yet.

Portables

THE LESSON OF THE 360


Where we Play

• The console isn’t just for games anymore.

• Now users want:– Games– Downloadable content – Movies on Demand– Twitter, Facebook, and more.


THE NEW RULES


Where we Play

• iPhone

• DS

• Many more in the years to come.

Portables

CHEAP AND EASY


Where we Play

• Followers, not leaders.• Sort of like consoles.– But easier to pirate.

• Sort of like PCs– But not really open or as innovative.

• It’s also hard to make money if you’re not Nintendo or Apple.

Portables

HANDHELDS ARE HYBRIDS


Where we Play

• Works on everything from your phone to your tower.

• Games don’t become obsolete. – You can still easily play 10 year old flash games.

• Getting more sophisticated. – Flash becoming mature – Cloud computing is interesting, if not quite there yet.

The Browser

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE—ALL THE TIME


The World of Free


The World of Free

• Free games need hundreds of thousands of people, maybe millions coming every day.

• There is always some limit on the amount you can consume.

• The player is the primary method of advertising.

Why Free?

THE BEST WAY TO BUILD A SOCIAL AUDIENCE


The World of Free

• Your info has value.

• Online games are one big endless focus test.

• They’re desperate to try and make the games more addictive.

Metrics

“THEY” WANT TO KNOW


The World of Free

• Advertising

• Offers

• Subscriptions

Making Money

HOW DO YOU MAKE MONEY ON FREE?


The World of Free

• This works, but only if you have really big numbers and a really big audience.

• But everyone does it, if they can get away with it.

• At worst it’s something you’ll pay to get rid of.

Three ways to make $$$

ADVERTISING


The World of Free

• Sign up/subscribe to something and get in-game currency.

• People pay the developer for bringing you their way.

• Works better than advertising alone, because the advertiser gets something real.


OFFERS


The World of Free

This is the big one.


VIRTUAL GOODS


The World of Free

• Items or cash that can be bought for real $$$.

• Limited quantities.– Sometimes

• Better than the free stuff.– Or at least easier to get.

Virtual Goods

WHAT ARE THEY?


The World of Free

• Anyone here ever buy a Magic card?

• D&D 4th edition is the same model.– Free to play with your friends. – Low initial investments. – Then you start emptying your wallet to get more.

OM NOM NOM NOM!

Virtual Goods

WILL THEY WORK?


The World of Free

• Over $1B in virtual goods will be sold in the US this year.

• Games are easier to upgrade.

• Balance become less important.

Virtual Goods

ALL YOUR MONEY $1.00 AT A TIME


The World of Free

• Designs have to make you an offer you cant refuse.

• Balance become less important.

• Games are more responsive to the player’s needs.

Virtual Goods

HOW DO THIS CHANGE THE GAME?


New Ways to Play


New Ways to Play

• I call this the “Farmpocalypse”• Tremble before it.

The Future is FarmingIN THE FUTURE THERE WILL BE ONLY FARMING GAMES


New Ways to Play

• Everybody else is making content for ME

• I’m making content for everybody else.

Getting Social

WHAT MAKES A GAME “SOCIAL”?


New Ways to Play

• Repetitive and simple.

• Played on an existing platform.

• A lot of people might not even call them games.

• Like it or not, it’s going to show up in a lot.

Getting Social

GAMEPLAY GOES BEYOND CASUAL


New Ways to Play

• Not a lot of pain– You don’t “fail”, you just win slower.

• Your friends are valuable resources that you need to collect and exploit.

Getting Social

NO PAIN, SLOW GAIN.


New Ways to Play

• You can grind, but you can’t catass.

• Important actions are limited by energy points.– Replenished over time—or with money.

• Prizes for showing up every day.

Getting Social

THE BITE-SIZED GRIND


New Ways to Play

• You can grind, but you can’t catass.

• Important actions are limited by energy points.– Replenished over time—or with money.

• Do the basic action (missions, farming, etc.) over an over again.

Getting Social

THE BITE-SIZED GRIND


New Ways to Play

• Daily prizes for showing up.

• In farming especially, you’re given a window of opportunity to “reap” rewards.

Getting Social

CHECKING IN


New Ways to Play

• You can buy stuff that has no in-game effect.– Hats for your avatar!

• Pets are especially popular for this.– But there’s always a reason to dress up your farm, buy

more guns, or whatever.

• Makes it easier to sell cool stuff for real $.

Getting Social

COLLECTING IS GOOD


New Ways to Play

• It’s more about status and showing off than it is about personal achievement.

• In the world of social everyone is an achievement whore.

• But unclear goals aren’t so great for hardcore gamers.

Getting Social

WINNING IS RELATIVE


New Ways to Play

• Social games will get more complex.– But only as much as the metrics allow.

• Popular titles get more MMO like.– Check out Mafia Wars to see this in action.

• Action Gameplay will show up.– But probably be more similar to old-style arcade gaming.

Games of the Near Future

SOCIAL: THE NEXT GENERATION


Are We Having Fun Yet?



• The hardcore audience is pretty-much maxed out.

• Retail prices are pretty-much maxed.

• Box sales are down.

Dealing with Change

THE CURRENT PROBLEMS WITH HARDCORE


New Ways to Play

• Most devs love the new models.– Or at least they love the iPhone

• You can invest less in the beginning– The games are smaller– Build the title as you go along.

• More money goes directly to the devs.

Dealing with Change

WHAT DO THE DEVELOPERS THINK?



• Still learning the ropes

• Some are sad, because the old “tricks” aren’t working the way they used to.

• But you can try a lot of new things.

• We’re only at the beginning.

Dealing with Change

WHAT DO THE DESIGNERS THINK?


New Ways to Play

• The old guard may be bummed.

• But there’s Lots of new Players are showing up.– Millions of them.

• They will get more sophisticated, but they will be a new breed of gamer.

• The hardcore gamer is going to get some benefits, but won’t be the same world it was before.

Dealing with Change

WHAT DOES THE AUDIENCE THINK?


QuestionsContact:

[email protected]: @mediashifters

@andrewmayer


mailto:[email protected]

pax 2009-the future of games

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