paul samuelson, 1915 -
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Let those who will write the nation’s laws – if I can write the its textbooks. Economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions. Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Paul Samuelson, 1915 -
• Let those who will write the nation’s laws – if I can write the its textbooks.
• Economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions.
• Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.
• In this age of specialization, I sometimes think of myself as the last generalist in economics
• Funeral by funeral, theory advances.
• BA, Chicago, 1935• PhD, Harvard, 1941
– Foundations of Economic Analysis, published 1947
• M.I.T. 1940 – – Radiation Lab– Economics text
• 1st edition, 1948
• 17th edition, 2007
– Clark Medal 1947– Nobel Award 1970
Paul Samuelson, Notable ConceptsMathematical economics:
constrained optimization• Revealed preference• Factor price equalization• The transfer problem: improved on Hume
• Economics of public goods• Turnpike theorem for growth• Overlapping generations framework• Randomness of speculative prices
efficient market hypothesis
• The U.S. Phillips Curve (with Solow) a policy menu?– 1964 Kennedy – Johnson Tax Cut– 1968 Vietnam War Surtax
• “…Adam Smith gave two resounding cheers for individualism; but for state interference of the pre-19th century type he could muster only a bronx cheer. Make no mistake about it, Smith was right. Most inter-ventions into economic life by the State were then harmful both to prosperity and freedom…Good inten-tions by government are not enough; acts do have consequences that had better be taken into account…”
Keynesian PantheonAlvin Hansen1887 - 1975
“The American Keynes”•Economic Policy and Full Employment, 1946•A Guide to Keynes, 1953
Ragnar Frisch, 1895 – 1973•Econometrics, “Macroeconomics”
•Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969Jan Tinbergen, 1903 – 1994•First econometric model
•Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969
Simon Kuznets1901 – 1985Nobel Memorial Prize, 1971
•National Income and Its Composition: 1919-1938,1941.
John Hicks1904 – 1989Nobel Memorial Prize, 1972
Mr. Keynes and the Classics, A SuggestedSimplification, Econometrica, 1937.
Keynesian Pantheon
Lawrence Klein1920 –
Clark Medal, 1959Nobel Memorial Prize, 1980
•A Textbook of Econometrics, 1953•The Empirical Foundations of Keynesian Economics, 1954•An Econometric Model of the United States: 1929 – 1952, 1955•An Introduction to Econometrics, 1962
James Tobin1918 – 2002Clark Medal, 1955Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2Nobel Memorial Prize, 1981
•Liquidity Preference as Behavior TowardsRisk, Review of Economic Studies, 1958•Tobin q / Tobin tax
Walter Heller, 1915 – 1987•Chair, Council of Economic Advisors, 1961 - 1964
Franco Modigliani1918 – 2003Nobel Memorial Prize, 1985
•Liquidity Preference in the Theory of Interestand Money, Econometrica, 1944•The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, AER,1963•MPS: MIT-Penn-System Model
Keynesian PantheonRobert Solow, 1924 – Clark Medal, 1961Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2
Nobel Memorial Prize, 1987•A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,QJE, 1956•Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy (withSamuelson), 1960
A.W. Phillips, 1914 – 1975
Paul H. Douglas, 1892 – 1976“…the greatest of all Senators” Martin Luther King
U.S. Senator (Illinois), 1949 - 1967Chair, Joint Economic Committee
•A Theory of Production (with Cobb), AER, 1928•Real Wages in the United States, 1930•The Theory of Wages, 1934