Paul Samuelson, 1915 -

• Let those who will write the nation’s laws – if I can write the its textbooks.

• Economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions.

• Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.

• In this age of specialization, I sometimes think of myself as the last generalist in economics

• Funeral by funeral, theory advances.

• BA, Chicago, 1935• PhD, Harvard, 1941

– Foundations of Economic Analysis, published 1947

• M.I.T. 1940 – – Radiation Lab– Economics text

• 1st edition, 1948

• 17th edition, 2007

– Clark Medal 1947– Nobel Award 1970

Paul Samuelson, Notable ConceptsMathematical economics:

constrained optimization• Revealed preference• Factor price equalization• The transfer problem: improved on Hume

• Economics of public goods• Turnpike theorem for growth• Overlapping generations framework• Randomness of speculative prices

efficient market hypothesis

• The U.S. Phillips Curve (with Solow) a policy menu?– 1964 Kennedy – Johnson Tax Cut– 1968 Vietnam War Surtax

• “…Adam Smith gave two resounding cheers for individualism; but for state interference of the pre-19th century type he could muster only a bronx cheer. Make no mistake about it, Smith was right. Most inter-ventions into economic life by the State were then harmful both to prosperity and freedom…Good inten-tions by government are not enough; acts do have consequences that had better be taken into account…”

Keynesian PantheonAlvin Hansen1887 - 1975

“The American Keynes”•Economic Policy and Full Employment, 1946•A Guide to Keynes, 1953

Ragnar Frisch, 1895 – 1973•Econometrics, “Macroeconomics”

•Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969Jan Tinbergen, 1903 – 1994•First econometric model

•Nobel Memorial Prize, 1969

Simon Kuznets1901 – 1985Nobel Memorial Prize, 1971

•National Income and Its Composition: 1919-1938,1941.

John Hicks1904 – 1989Nobel Memorial Prize, 1972

Mr. Keynes and the Classics, A SuggestedSimplification, Econometrica, 1937.

Keynesian Pantheon

Lawrence Klein1920 –

Clark Medal, 1959Nobel Memorial Prize, 1980

•A Textbook of Econometrics, 1953•The Empirical Foundations of Keynesian Economics, 1954•An Econometric Model of the United States: 1929 – 1952, 1955•An Introduction to Econometrics, 1962

James Tobin1918 – 2002Clark Medal, 1955Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2Nobel Memorial Prize, 1981

•Liquidity Preference as Behavior TowardsRisk, Review of Economic Studies, 1958•Tobin q / Tobin tax

Walter Heller, 1915 – 1987•Chair, Council of Economic Advisors, 1961 - 1964

Franco Modigliani1918 – 2003Nobel Memorial Prize, 1985

•Liquidity Preference in the Theory of Interestand Money, Econometrica, 1944•The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving, AER,1963•MPS: MIT-Penn-System Model

Keynesian PantheonRobert Solow, 1924 – Clark Medal, 1961Council of Economic Advisors, 1961-2

Nobel Memorial Prize, 1987•A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,QJE, 1956•Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy (withSamuelson), 1960

A.W. Phillips, 1914 – 1975

Paul H. Douglas, 1892 – 1976“…the greatest of all Senators” Martin Luther King

U.S. Senator (Illinois), 1949 - 1967Chair, Joint Economic Committee

•A Theory of Production (with Cobb), AER, 1928•Real Wages in the United States, 1930•The Theory of Wages, 1934