Patch Dynamics of Urban Ecosystems: A case study of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Morgan Grove and Bill Burchhttp://www.ecostudies.org/bes

with significant contributions from Chris Boone, Ann Kinzig, Larry Band, Neely Law, Peter Groffman, Steward Pickett, and Mary Cadenasso

Introduction

• Overview of BES Site and BES Patch Dynamics Approach– Site– Temporal Dynamics– Spatial Dynamics– Scale– Integration through Patch Dynamics

• Application of Patch Dynamics Approach to Social Patches

BES Site:Watersheds

BES Site: Land Use

Temporal Dynamics•Non-linear

changeand thresholds

•Feedbacks withinand among scales

•Time lags

•Legacies

Feedbacks

• How have ecological systems influenced social patterns and processes in an urban ecosystem?

• How have social patterns and processes influenced use and management of ecological resources in an urban ecosystem?

• How are these interactions changing over time, and what does this mean for the urban ecosystem?

Spatial Dynamics

• Area/perimeter• Shape• Neighborhood• Matrix and Connectivity• Configuration

Connectivity: Development impacts on flowpaths and water/carbon/nutrient cycling (Law and

Band)

Spatial Dynamics: Configuration

Scale: Discipline and Theory

• Levels of Organization and Disciplines– Individuals, families, communities, and

societies– Psychology, anthropology, sociology, political

science, economics, geography

• Hierarchy Theory– Strong and weak ties within and between

levels of organization– Lower level behavior; upper level control– Endogenous and exogenous change

• Panarchy Theory (Holling et al., 2001)?

Scale: Diagram

Scale: Geography

Integrated Patch

Approach: Revised VSA

Example of Physical

Patches: Soils

Example of Biological Patches:

Landcover

Example of Social

Patches: Population

Density

Application of Patch Dynamics Approach to

Social Patches• Definition of social patches• Delineation, classification, and

characterization– Methods

• Spatial Analysis• Temporal Analysis• Scale

Definition of Social Patches

• Theoretically basis• Relatively homogeneous patches w/in a

heterogeneous landscape at a given scale

• Size and classification can vary, depending on the research question

• For this research, we are trying to understand variation within residential land use, between neighborhoods.

Delineation, Classification, and Characterization of

Social Patches

• Census Block Group Boundaries• PRIZM Classification (CLARITAS)• Household Telephone Survey• Field Observation Survey• Aerial and Remote Sensing

Background on PRIZM

• PRIZM Lifestyle Market Classifications, Claritas

• Classifies Census block groups based on– urban gradient– economic gradient– social characteristics

• 62 “lifestyle clusters,” which can be aggregated into 15 and 5 social groups

Social Cluster 8: “2nd City”

• Middleburg Managers (cluster 32): Median HH income = $42,000

• What’s Hot– fraternal orders (155)– decorative icing (141)– contacting

government officials (124)

– frozen boneless chicken (135)

• Towns and Gowns (cluster 36): Median HH income = $19,700

• What’s Hot– rolling papers (209)– Star Trek: Deep

Space Nine (161)– Kellogg’s All Bran

(142)– frozen boneless

chicken (130)

Characterization Focus• Identity

– Recreation– Environmental characteristics (landscaping)

• Social Cohesion / Capital– Trust– Reciprocity– Order (safety, graffiti, garbage)– Stratification (municipal services)

• Environmental, Neighborhood Change• Environmental Management (lawn care)• Mass balance (inputs and outputs of nutrients, carbon,

water, and energy)• Landscape structure (landcover/vegetation,

infrastructure, geomorphology, and lot size, which regulate mass balance)

Field Observation Methods

• 100m and 300m grid for entire study site

• 5% sample of households for comparison of geographies

• Emphasis on residential areas

Sampling Grids and Aerials(Emerge, 1999)

Sampling Grids and Administrative Records (ex. Maryland Property View, 1999)

3 levels of aggregation:62 : numbered15 : colored 5 : not shown

Linking Social Datasets:Telephone, Field, and Census Surveys

Telephone: common PRIZM codesField: common geography

PRIZM by Census block group*

Telephone by PRIZM code

Field by sample grid cell #

*PRIZM codes : numbered; grid cells sampled : yellow squares

Spatial Analysis

• Configuration (land use)• Neighborhood Analysis (block

group classification)

Existing Theories for Social Pattern

• Mono-centric model (nucleus/gradient)– Concentric ring model

(pre-1945)

• Poly-centric model (multi-nucleus/multi-gradient)– Multiple concentric

rings (post-1945)

• Sector model– Development follows

transportation corridors

Spatial Dynamics: ConfigurationLand Use (PRIZM)

Phoenix Baltimore

Urban

Suburban

Rural

Spatial Dynamics: Neighborhood Analysis

Ethnicity -- Phoenix and Baltimore (ratio of total # patches per class / “dissolved” # patches per

class)

Non-whiteMixed

White

Phoenix

Baltimore0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ethnicity Index

Phoenix

Baltimore

Temporal Analysis

• Historic Geographies• Historic Attributes

Historic Census Geographies:

1990 – 1960 Census Comparison

Boundaries of Census Tracts for Baltimore City. Red lines are 1990 boundaries, black are 1960. The first number of the census tract identifiers for 1960 correspond to the old ward numbers (1910). Reconstructing digital ward boundaries from 1990 census tract boundaries is a matter of ‘working backward’ and aggregating or disaggregating areal units.

Historic Supplemental Geographies:

Sanborn Maps (beginning in 1870)

Sanborn Fire Insurance Atlases document land use at a fine scale. The fire insurance company documented the location and address of buildings, building materials, economic activities, streets and transportation services, and infrastructure, especially related to water delivery. Samples from one plate are shown both above and to the right. The pink color indicates a brick veneer building, the yellow a wooden structure

Historic Attribute Data: key social data sets to link with Census data

Vital Records: Birth Records Death Records Disease Records

Demographic: Assessment

Records/Tax Rolls City Directories PRIZM Data Social Surveys

Economic: Personal Income State GNP Assessment Records Deeds and Wills

Land Use: Atlases (Sanborn) Maps Aerial Photos Satellite Imagery Deeds

Time

Sca

le

Ind

ivid

ua

lC

ou

nty

Su

b-C

ou

nty

Sta

te

Present1800 19001850 1950

Birth Records, 1875-1972 (1)

Death Records, 1875-1972 (1)

Sanborn Atlases, 1893-1952 (2)

Personal Income, 1969-98 (3)

Personal Income, 1969-98 (4)

Continuous Record

Selected Years

Land Use

Vital Statistics/Public Health

Economic

Demographic

Gross State Product, 1977-98 (4)

Assessment Rolls, 1815-present (5)

Prizm Marketing Data, 1988?-present (6)

Aerial Photos and Sat. Images, 1938-present (7)

City Directories, 1819- present (8)

Deeds, pre-1800-present (9)

Block Books, 1851-present (10)

USGS Topographic Maps, 1880-present (11)

Historic Attribute Data over Time: Baltimore City, 1800-2000

Scale: Panarchy Theory and Patch Cycles over

Time

Conclusions

• Overview: patch dynamics approach in terms of time, space, scale, and integration

• Application to development of a social science approach to patch dynamics– Emerging effort, requiring collective approach– Theory-based and contributes to theory– Multiple datasets over space, time, and scale– Multiple analytical skills– Cross-site comparisons (Phoenix, Paris, Lyons,

Budapest)