paradigm shift from ‘best driving car’ to ‘best driven car’ › files › 1114 › 6783 ›...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Autonomous Business Models
Paradigm Shift from
‘Best Driving Car’ to ‘Best Driven Car’ Franck Leveque
Partner & Business Unit Leader, Frost & Sullivan
1
2
4Cs Impacting The Future of Mobility Emergence of smart and connected nodes to optimize and better utilize commute time.
Co
mm
un
ity
Car
Co
mm
ute
r
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n
Intelligent Infrastructure
Self learning car
New Mobility Solution Smart grid Car As A Service
V2V & V2X Smart Mobile Application
Connected driving
3
Level 4
Level 3
Level 2
Level 5
2030 2025 2020 2016
Autonomous Driving Market: Introduction to Market Roadmap, Global, 2016–2030
Human Machine
Fu
lly A
uto
no
mo
us
Dri
vin
g
Hig
hw
ay
Pil
ot
Cit
y +
Hig
hw
ay
Pil
ot
5 million
2 million
15 million
1 million
Square
One
Dis
rup
tors
Exciting
New
Business
Models
New Vehicles
Sub Trend: 8 million semi/highly automated vehicles in 10 years $60bn per annum market opportunity in 2030. Partnerships to bridge OEM gap from L2 L5.
4
Industry Trends Driving the Autonomous Driving Eco System Fast paced technology growth forcing proactive regulatory reforms.
Disruption to
Commercialisation
Evolution of
Functional Safety
Autonomous
Testing Facilities
High Definition
Mapping
Next Gen Sensors E/E Architecture Sensor Fusion Deep Learning
Market
Trends
Technology
Trends
5
LIDAR
Velodyne,
Quanergy and
TriLumina at the
forefront of
commercializing the
LiDAR.
Active Gated Imaging
BrightWay Vision
and LEDDARTech are seeking
alternative routes to
bridge benefits of
RADAR and mono
cameras.
GPUs/Software
NVIDIA and
ADASWorks,
Drive.ai working to
empower complex
data stitching and
computational
analysis for AD.
Mono/Stereo Camera
ForeSight,
MobilEye,
OmniVision currently developing
strong competency is
bring vision to market.
Fastest Growing Vision Technologies Enabling Autonomous Driving Enhancing vision is a key element of every OEM autonomous driving roadmap
$2B Market by 2030 Strong disruption
potential
$20-25B Market by
2030
$7-10B Market by
2030
6
Es
tab
lis
he
d P
laye
rs
(fro
m A
DA
S)
Em
erg
ing
Pla
ye
rs (
outs
ide t
he
ecosys
tem
)
Software Hardware Silicon Vehicle Services
Margins 10 to 20% 5 to 10% 1 to 5% 2-10% 15 to 25%
Tech Invasion – the Way Forward The development of new mobility solutions and autonomous vehicles is driving a plethora of
new market players set to disrupt the existing ecosystem and value creation model.
7
Automotive Ecosystem
Outside Ecosystem
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
TRUCKING
RIDE-HAILING
COMPANIES ENERGY/FUEL
PARKING
GARAGES CAR REPAIRS CAR PARTS
HOTELS
MEDIA +
ENTERTAINMENT
INSURANCE
REAL ESTATE
FAST FOOD
Hotels & Real Estate: AVs to become new sleeping habitat
Airlines: Audi aims to disrupt entire business of domestic flights in 20 yrs
Media: Average commute of 45 min = increased advertisement space
Insurance: 16% drop in accidents by 2025
Car Repairs: 15% reduction in accidents by 2035
Autonomous Vehicles: Disruptive To Industries Beyond Automotive Industries to respond to changing consumer behaviour, develop partnerships, and drive
transformational change
8
Present-day Motor Insurance Model in driver centric
Driver centric evaluation
Impact of Autonomous Driving on Insurance Business Model With Increasing Autonomy, Insurance Liability Likely to Shift to Software Algorithms
Future Motor Insurance Model
Or 3. System centric
evaluation
2. Product centric
evaluation
1. Brand centric
evaluation Or
Ris
k
Potential Impact on Premium (20%) (15%) (15%) (20%)
Manufacturer’s Product Liability Insured’s Liability Other Stakeholders’ Liability
9
Impact of Autonomous Driving on Taxi Business Model With the driver out of the equation potential to radically redefine the current business model.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Source: NYC Taxi And Limousine Commission; Frost & Sullivan
The Taxi Business Model, Today and Tomorrow
Operational Efficiency:
35% Improvement Potential
Taxi User Base: 100%
Increase Potential
(% of population)
Average fare per mile:
40% Reduction Potential
Today
Tomorrow
Maintanence Car Driver
10
Autonomous Vehicles To Radically Reshape Urban Space Emphasis on safety undermines the future design of cities
Transforming city centers
• Space for retail, commercial and leisure
• Reduced congestions and traffic flow
Enhancing suburbs
• Residential roads to become social places
• AVs supplied and charged on demand
An Autonomous Vehicle Zone
• High quality, safe, flexible spaces for people
• Fluid vehicle lanes can adapt to match demand
Next Generation motorways
• Connected platoons for safety and route efficiency
• Continuous relay between onboard and static sensors.
11
Get In Touch!
Franck Leveque Partner & Business Unit Leader Mobility
Direct: +49 (0)69 770 33 21 Mobile: +49 (0)151 27 67 08 24
Source: Frost & Sullivan