page 1© crown copyright 2004 from demeter to euro-sip: the european seasonal to inter-annual...

© Crown copyright 2004

From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project

Richard Graham

acknowledgements to DEMETER and EURO-SIP partners

(Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Laura Ferranti (ECMWF))

NOAA 30th Climate Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 24-28th, State College, Pennsylvania


Talk Outline

DEMETER project (EU FP5) – completed September 2003European seasonal multi-model system (hindcasts)Application/impact models (crops, health)forecast system sensitivity studies

EURO-SIP operational real-time implementation of DEMETER

ENSEMBLES (EU FP6) prediction/impacts seasonal to decadal (and longer) timescales new representations of model and initial condition uncertainty 5 year project, now one year in

Met Office European winter forecast 2005/06


The DEMETER multi-model ensemble system

Partner Atmosphere Ocean

ECMWF IFS HOPE

LODYC IFS OPA

CNRM ARPEGE OPA

CERFACS ARPEGE OPA

INGV ECHAM-4 OPA

MPI ECHAM-5 MPI-OM1

UKMO HadCM3 HadCM3

DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models

6 installed at ECMWF

Hindcast periods: 1980-2001 (22yrs) – all models 1959-2001 (43yrs) – 3 models

9 member ensembles ERA-40 initial conditions SST and wind perturbations 4 start dates per year 6 months hindcasts

(GloSea)


Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts

Feb 87 May 87 Aug 87 Nov 87 Feb 88 ...

7 models x 9 ensemble members

63 member multi-model ensemble


CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT) LODYC (FR) MPI (DE) UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR)




63 member multi-model ensemble

= 1 hindcast




Evaluation of DEMETER multi-model hindcast skill

Applications/impact models

Crop yield malaria

Downscaling studies Statistical & dynamical

Sensitivity studies e.g. CGCM Vs AGCM

Results

DEMETER Special Issue 2005

Tellus 57A, No. 3, 21 contributions


Brier skillscore

Single vs. multi-model: Brier skill score‘basket’ of regions, start dates and leadtimes

Resolution skill score=Res/BSc

Reliability skill score=1-Rel/BSc


Impact of number of models on multi-model skill:Tropics, JJA precip, 1m lead: RPSS

Multi-model realizationsSingle-model realizations


France Germany

Denmark Greece

Application models: wheat yield predictions for Europe

From P. Cantelaube and J.-M. Terres, JRC

SIMULATION WEIGHTED YIELD ERROR (%)

± STANDARD ERROR

JRC February 7.1 ± 0.9

JRC April 7.7 ± 0.5

JRC June 7.0 ± 0.6

JRC August 5.4 ± 0.5

DEMETER (Feb. start) 6.0 ± 0.4

DEMETER multi-model predictions (7 models, 63 members, Feb starts) of average wheat yield for four European countries (box-and-whiskers) compared to Eurostat

official yields (black horizontal lines) and crop results from a simulation forced with downscaled ERA40 data (red dots).


Summary

DEMETER: proof of multi-model benefit using 7 coupled ocean-atmosphere models

More than a multi-model exercise…encouraging results for integration with application models

Mutual understanding between prediction and application communities – ‘end-to-end’ approach

Infrastructure and standardisation developed coordination of model output content (with application partners) model output formats and units (archiving at ECMWF). downscaling techniques/experience centralised model diagnosis/verification system at ECMWF data download and plotting facility http://data.ecmwf.int/data/


EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble

Three models running at ECMWF: Met Office: GloSea (version of HadCM3) (41-ensemble) ECMWF: system2 (40-ensemble) Météo-France – Arpège (41-ensemble)

Unified system with common development strategy Products in development:

2-model products available on Met Office website ECMWF release of web products is expected soon


Probability of precipitation – outer-quintile categories, GHACOF region, SON 2005

P(well-above)

P(well-below)

Yellow/red: enhanced chance of category (relative to climatology)

Blue: diminished chance

White:near climatological probabilities

GloSea

based on 1987-2001 climatology

EURO-SIP (80 ensemble)


Meteo-France

ECMWFMet Office (GloSea)

Probability of lower temperature tercile category: NDJ 2005 (from September)

Forecast is made available on the 15th of each month.

EURO-SIP multi-model


Tropical Storms

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9

No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance

Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast

Significance level is 90%JASON

FORECAST CLIMATE

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

15 10.38.8 13.327.4 26.23 2.9


Ensemble size = 41,climate size =225Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyMet Office Seasonal Forecast


FORECAST CLIMATE

Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

20.4 11.67.8 12.516.6 21.22.5 2.5


Ensemble size = 41,climate size = 55Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyMétéo-France Seasonal Forecast


FORECAST CLIMATE

ECMWF Met Office

Météo-France

0 1 2 3 40

5

10

15

20

20051993-2004

Obs 1st May- mid-Sep

AtlW-Pac E-Pac

80°S80°S

70°S 70°S

60°S60°S

50°S 50°S

40°S40°S

30°S 30°S

20°S20°S

10°S 10°S

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

40°N40°N

50°N 50°N

60°N60°N

70°N 70°N

80°N80°N

20°E

20°E 40°E

40°E 60°E

60°E 80°E

80°E 100°E

100°E 120°E

120°E 140°E

140°E 160°E

160°E 180°

180° 160°W

160°W 140°W

140°W 120°W

120°W 100°W

100°W 80°W

80°W 60°W

60°W 40°W

40°W 20°W

20°W

18 11.68.8 12.520.1 21.22.4 2.5


Ensemble size =120,climate size =165Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast


FORECAST CLIMATE

Multimodel

Forecast No. = 18

Climatology = 11.6


After DEMETER…ENACT: enhanced ocean assimilation

EN2 QC’d dataset and objective analysis, 1956-2004

http://www.hadobs.org


ENSEMBLES: seasonal to decadal &improved representing model uncertainties

1. 7 model multi-model installed at ECMWF

- includes Met Office decadal forecast system (anomaly assimilation)

- realistic GHGs, aerosols

Met Office decadal forecast (DePreSys)


ENSEMBLES: perturbed physics

From Murphy et al, Nature 2004

2. Many models from perturbing physics parameters, eg. RHcrit for cloud formation

(ref Murphy et al, 2004; and climateprediction.net)


ENSEMBLES: stochastic physics

E(n)

)(log10 n

3/5k

3k

n = spherical harmonic order

missing energy

3/5k

3k

3k

E(n)

)(log10 n

3k

3/5k

Stochastic physics experiment with ECMWF system:

Cellular Automaton Stochastic Backscatter Scheme (CASBS)

Without CASBS With CASBS

From Tim Palmer, ECMWF

3. Stochastic ‘backscatter’ experiment (ECMWF)


Summary and plans

EURO-SIP: Real-time follow up to DEMETER products becoming available Meteo-France model fully implemented early 2006 plans for model upgrades, convergence on the periods and

ensemble size of hindcasts

ENACT: enhanced ocean data assimilation – ocean ‘reanalyses’ QC’d ocean data and objective analyses

ENSEMBLES: builds on DEMETER and ENACT seasonal to decadal timescales (and longer) further investigations of model uncertainties calibrating and combining model ensembles


Met Office forecast: European winter 2005/06

NAO index: difference between normalised pressure anomaly Azores - Iceland

N. Atlantic May SST anomaly associated with +ve NAO

N. Atlantic May SST anomaly 2005

Predicts correct sign in 2 out of 3 winters

Empirical NAO prediction

Rodwell & Folland, 2002


September surface and sub-surface anomalies and GloSea prediction

GloSea prediction from September

60-90m anomalies

SST anomalies

normalised

actual


Thank you!

additional slides follow


EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble

Met Office (GloSea2) Modified HadCM3 Atmos. 2.5° x 3.75° x 19L Ocean (1.25° to 0.3°) x 1.25° x 40L 41 ensemble members (from mix of windstress and SST perturbations) Hindcast: 1987-2001, 15 members

ECMWF (system2) Atmos. TL95L40 Ocean (1.0° to 0.3°) x 1.0° x 29L 40 ensemble members Hindcast: 1987-2001, 5 members

Meteo-France Atmos. Arpège TL63L31 Ocean: ORCA (2.0° to 0.5°) 31L 41 ensemble members (mix of 5 ocean analyses and 8 lagged atmos) Hindcast: 1993-2003, 5 members


Parameter Perturbations

Convection• Entrainment rate• Intensity of mass flux • Shape of cloud (anvils) • Cloud water seen by radiation

Radiation• Ice particle size/shape• Sulphur cycle• Water vapour continuum absorption

Boundary layer• Turbulent mixing coefficients: stability-dependence, neutral mixing length

• Roughness length over sea: Charnock constant, free convective value

Dynamics• Diffusion: order and e-folding time

• Gravity wave drag: surface and trapped lee wave constants

• Gravity wave drag start level

Land surface processes• Root depths

• Forest roughness lengths

• Surface-canopy coupling

• CO2 dependence of stomatal conductance

Sea ice• Albedo dependence on temperature• Ocean-ice heat transfer

Large Scale Cloud• Ice fall speed• Critical relative humidity for formation• Cloud droplet to rain: conversion rate and threshold• Cloud fraction calculation


Met Office seasonal/multi-annual/decadal runs

ModelDePreSys(HadCM3)

Currentoper. range

decadal

assimilationmethod

GloSea(HadCM3*)

Seasonal(6months)

Conventional (OI type)

calibrated anomalies

9-ensembleexperiments1991-2001

pert. ODA

pert. phys.

lagged avge

pert. phys.

lagged avge

Hindcasts pre-production

period: 1991 - 2001

GloSea:->7m: 1st/15th May/Nov 1st June/Dec ->14m: 1st May/June/Nov/Dec-> 10y: 1st May 1964, 1994

DePreSys:

-> 10y: 1st May/Nov (all years)

*Later HadGEM


Multi-model evaluation:Niño3.4 SST anomaly: ASO at 3m lead:

http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification/

Correlation:Multi-model = 0.83

Best single model = 0.81


GloSea development and response to North Atlantic SST ‘tri-pole’ pattern: spring 1989

Jan 89

Feb 89

May 89

GloSeaHadISST

MAM 1989

HadAM3 (+ pers Jan SSTA)

GloSea

ERA40


ENSEMBLES: seasonal to interannual timescales (and longer); representing model uncertainties

Hindcast pre-production period: 1991-2001; later 1960-2001

9-member ensembles ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial

conditions ENACT-based ocean initial conditions with

SST and wind perturbations 2 seasonal (7 months),1 annual (12-14

months) runs per year Two multi-annual runs (1965, 1994) except

2 per year for DePreSys) Realistic boundary forcings: GHGs,

aerosols, solar forcing, etc.

ENSEMBLES system: 7 coupled GCMs running at ECMWF

upgraded models from DEMETER (eg. using ENACT developments etc)

Partner Atmosphere Ocean

ECMWF IFS HOPE

ECMWF IFS OPA

CNRM ARPEGE OPA

CERFACS ARPEGE OPA

UKMO GloSea

UKMO DePreSys

IfM ECHAM5 MPI-OM1


Sensitivity studies: AGCM Vs CGCMNov. start for FMA (3-month lead)

HadAM3 (2-tier) GloSea (1-tier)

Much improved GloSea skill in tropical (south) Atlantic and Indian ocean, from representation of lagged responses to ENSO.

ROC Skill for 2m temperature, upper tercile


Met Office decadal forecast system (DePreSys):Forecast of global annual mean Ts

Predict 0.36+/-0.23o C (5-95%) warming for the coming decade

Unless a major volcanic eruption occurs!

Uses ‘anomaly assimilation’ (seasonal-range skill very competitive!)

page 1© crown copyright 2004 from demeter to euro-sip: the european seasonal to inter-annual...

Documents