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Refer to important disclosures at the end of this r eport

HOLDHOLDHOLDHOLD RMRMRMRM1.771.771.771.77 KLCIKLCIKLCIKLCI :::: 1,842.171,842.171,842.171,842.17(Downgrade from BUY)

Price Target :Price Target :Price Target :Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.77 (Prev RM 2.45)

Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance :Shariah Compliance : No

Reason for Report :Reason for Report :Reason for Report :Reason for Report : 1Q15 Results

Potential Catalyst:Potential Catalyst:Potential Catalyst:Potential Catalyst: Stronger than expected SSG growth

AllianceDBSAllianceDBSAllianceDBSAllianceDBS vsvsvsvs Consensus:Consensus:Consensus:Consensus: Inline

AnalystKing Yoong CHEAH CFA +603 2604 [email protected]

Price Relative

Forecasts and Valuation

FYFYFYFY JunJunJunJun ((((RMRMRMRM m)m)m)m) 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFFRevenue 790 866 984 1,081EBITDA 139 147 160 180Pre-tax Profit 118 126 133 154Net Profit 85 91 97 113Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 86 91 97 113EPS (sen) 13.0 13.8 14.7 17.1EPS Pre Ex. (sen) 13.0 13.8 14.7 17.1EPS Gth (%) (10) 6 7 16EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (10) 6 7 16Diluted EPS (sen) 13.0 13.8 14.7 17.1Net DPS (sen) 8.0 11.5 12.2 14.2BV Per Share (sen) 56.6 58.9 61.4 64.3PE (X) 13.6 12.8 12.0 10.4PE Pre Ex. (X) 13.6 12.8 12.0 10.4P/Cash Flow (X) 7.3 27.2 9.1 9.7

EV/EBITDA (X) 7.0 7.1 6.4 5.6Net Div Yield (%) 4.5 6.5 6.9 8.0P/Book Value (X) 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASHROAE (%) 24.0 23.5 24.5 27.2

Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%):Earnings Rev (%): 0 (16) (14)Consensus EPSConsensus EPSConsensus EPSConsensus EPS (sensensensen):::: N/A 15.5 17.0Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs:Other Broker Recs: B: 5 S: 1 H: 2

ICB IndustryICB IndustryICB IndustryICB Industry : Consumer GoodsICB Sector:ICB Sector:ICB Sector:ICB Sector: Personal GoodsPrincipal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business:Principal Business: Apparel and accessories retailer withoverwhelming domestic presence as well as exposure in high end,mid-end and value clothing segments for all age groups.

Source of all data: Company, AllianceDBS, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

At A GlanceIssued Capital (m shrs) 658Mkt. Cap (RMm/US$m) 1,164 / 348Major Shareholders

Yong Pang Chaun Holdings Sdn Bhd (%) 43.7Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera (%) 5.0iCapital.biz (%) 3.5

Free Float (%) 50.1Avg. Daily Vol.(000) 902

Malaysia Equity Research 27 Nov 2014

Company Focus

Padini HoldingsBloomberg: PAD MK |Reuters: PDNI.KL Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Dressing down 1QFY15 earnings missed expectations due to

drop in margins

Margins are unlikely to recover; cut forwardearnings by 13%- 16%

Cut TP to RM1.77; downgrade to HOLD

Missed expectations. Core earnings in 1QFYJune15 ofRM19m, accounted for only 16% and 18% of our and

consensus full year estimates, respectively.

Revenue on track but margins were below expectations.1Q15 revenue grew by 4% y-o-y, driven by same- store- salesgrowth (SSSG) of 8% and 3% for Brands Outlet and PadiniConcept stores, respectively. Nonetheless, 1Q15 gross marginsdropped by 2ppts y-o-y to 45%, below our full year target46.2%. The weaker margin was due to more aggressive salescampaigns engaged by the group during the quarter.Thegroup declared an interim DPS of 2.5sen, which is withinexpectations.

Margin unlikely to recover, cut forward earnings. Inview of the increasingly competitive operating environmentand weaker consumer sentiment, we believe that the groupwill need to continue its sales campaigns to maintain itsdominant market position. As such, we do not expect profitmargins to recover going forward.We cut FY15-FY17Fearnings by 16%/ 14%/ 13%, on lower gross profit marginassumptions of 45.3%/45.1%/45.1% (previously 46.2%/46.1%/46.1%)

Cut TP to RM1.77, downgrade to HOLD. With the lowerearnings forecast, earnings growth for FY15 is projected to beonly 7% (vs previous forecast of 27%). Given the unexcitingsingle digit earnings growth, we believe that the group nolonger deserves a premium PE valuation of 14x. As such, wehave re-pegged Padinis valuation to its average historical PEof 12x (or 10x ex-cash).Downgrade our recommendation for

the stock to HOLD with a lower TP of RM1.77. Dividend yieldof 7% should provide support to the stock price.

85

105

125

145

165

185

205

225

245

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14

Relative IndexRM

Padini Holdings (LHS) Relative KLCI INDEX (RHS)

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

INVESTMENT THESIS

Profile Rationale

Padini is a 43-year old Malaysia-based fashion retailer

offering clothing, accessories and shoes for women, men and

children underthe brands of Padini, Vincci, Seed, Miki, Padini

Authentic, P&Co, PDI and so on. As of FY14, the group

operates 100 outlets inMalaysia and is the largest fashion

retailer in terms of number of stores.

Continued cost pressure to dampen marginContinued cost pressure to dampen marginContinued cost pressure to dampen marginContinued cost pressure to dampen margin

In view of the increasingly competitive operatingenvironment and weaker consumer sentiment, we believe

that the group will need to continue its sales campaigns

to maintain its dominant market position. As such, margin

could continue to come under pressure

Supported by yieldSupported by yieldSupported by yieldSupported by yield

Dividend yield is attractive at 7-8% for FY15 and FY16,

which will provides strong support to share price.

Valuation Risks

With the lower earnings forecast, earnings growth for FY15 is

projected to be only 7% (vs previous forecast of 27%). Given

the unexciting single digit earnings growth, we believe that

the group no longer deserves a premium PE valuation of 14x.

As such, we have re-pegged Padinis valuation to its average

historical PE of 12x (or 10x ex-cash). Downgrade our

recommendation for the stock to HOLD with a lower TP of

RM1.77.

Competitive sectorCompetitive sectorCompetitive sectorCompetitive sector

Padini continues to face strong competition from a large

pool of retail brands in Malaysia. Lower consumer

spending could also affect future profitability.

Source: AllianceDBS

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

Key Assumptions

FYFYFYFY JunJunJunJun 2012201220122012AAAA 2013201320132013AAAA 2014201420142014AAAA 2015201520152015FFFF 2016201620162016FFFF

Total retail floor space (k 699.1 708.3 848.5 987.5 1,031.5Breakdown of revenue 27.7 8.8 9.7 13.6 9.9

SSS growth (%) 13.2 (0.2) 4.8 1.9 1.4

Revenue growth from 3.7 (0.5) (2.2) 0.3 0.3Revenue growth from new 10.9 9.4 7.1 11.3 8.2

Segmental Breakdown


Revenues (RM m)

Vincci 229 224 206 216 223

Padini (BF) 227 246 273 318 351Seed 88 87 91 96 99Yee Fong Hung 149 195 253 307 358

Others 25 28 29 33 37

TotalTotalTotalTotal 726726726726 790790790790 866866866866 984984984984 1,0811,0811,0811,081

(RM m)Vincci 41 30 18 22 25

Padini (BF) 47 41 43 51 56Seed 8 3 8 7 7

Yee Fong Hung 26 33 44 40 52Others 4 3 3 4 4

TotalTotalTotalTotal 130130130130 118118118118 126126126126 133133133133 154154154154Margins (%)

Vincci 17.8 13.2 8.6 10.0 11.0Padini (BF) 20.6 16.6 15.8 16.0 16.0

Seed 8.6 3.6 9.1 7.0 7.0

Yee Fong Hung 17.5 17.0 17.4 13.2 14.5Others 15.1 10.8 10.5 11.0 11.0

TotalTotalTotalTotal 17.917.917.917.9 14.914.914.914.9 14.514.514.514.5 13.513.513.513.5 14.214.214.214.2

Income Statement (RM m)


Revenue 726 790 866 984 1,081Cost of Goods Sold (375) (421) (466) (538) (593)

Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 351351351351 369369369369 400400400400 446446446446 488488488488Other Opng (Exp)/Inc (222) (252) (276) (313) (335)

Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 130130130130 117117117117 124124124124 133133133133 154154154154Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 0 1 2 0 0Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0

PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 130130130130 118118118118 126126126126 133133133133 154154154154Tax (34) (32) (35) (36) (42)Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0

Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 95959595 85858585 91919191 97979797 113113113113

Net Profit before Except. 95 86 91 97 113EBITDA 151 139 147 160 180

Growth

Revenue Gth (%) 27.7 8.8 9.7 13.6 9.9

EBITDA Gth (%) 19.6 (7.5) 5.3 9.3 12.0Opg Profit Gth (%) 25.1 (9.7) 5.8 7.7 15.0

Net Profit Gth (%) 25.9 (10.4) 6.5 6.7 16.0

Margins & Ratio

Gross Margins (%) 48.4 46.7 46.2 45.3 45.1

Opg Profit Margin (%) 17.9 14.8 14.3 13.6 14.2Net Profit Margin (%) 13.1 10.8 10.5 9.9 10.4

ROAE (%) 30.6 24.0 23.5 24.5 27.2ROA (%) 20.5 17.1 16.0 17.0 19.0ROCE (%) 26.6 21.0 20.0 21.9 24.9

Div Payout Ratio (%) 41.4 61.6 83.2 83.0 83.0Net Interest Cover (x) 658.2 NM NM 702.6 NM

Source: Company, AllianceDBS

Sensitivity Analysis

2011201120112011

Utilities +/- 1% Net Profit +/- X%Day rate +/- 1% Net Profit +/- X%

Margins Trend

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F

Operat ing Marg in % Net Income Margin %

Margin squeeze due toongoing salescampaigns

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RM m)

FYFYFYFY JunJunJunJun 1Q1Q1Q1Q2014201420142014 2Q2Q2Q2Q2014201420142014 3Q3Q3Q3Q2014201420142014 4Q4Q4Q4Q2014201420142014 1Q1Q1Q1Q2015201520152015

Revenue 217 234 219 196 227Cost of Goods Sold (115) (124) (118) (109) (124)

Gross ProfitGross ProfitGross ProfitGross Profit 102102102102 110110110110 101101101101 87878787 103103103103

Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (64) (71) (74) (67) (76)Operating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating ProfitOperating Profit 38383838 39393939 28282828 19191919 27272727Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0

Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 1 1 1 0 0

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0

PrePrePrePre----tax Profittax Profittax Profittax Profit 39393939 39393939 28282828 19191919 27272727Tax (11) (11) (7) (6) (7)Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Net ProfitNet ProfitNet ProfitNet Profit 28282828 28282828 21212121 14141414 19191919Net profit bef Except. 28 28 21 14 19EBITDA 44 44 34 26 34

Growth

Revenue Gth (%) 22.7 7.8 (6.5) (10.4) 15.7

EBITDA Gth (%) 63.6 0.2 (22.9) (23.9) 30.4Opg Profit Gth (%) 77.6 0.6 (28.7) (29.3) 37.3Net Profit Gth (%) 77.1 2.4 (25.7) (35.3) 40.9

Margins

Gross Margins (%) 47.1 46.8 46.2 44.3 45.3

Opg Profit Margins (%) 17.7 16.5 12.6 9.9 11.8

Net Profit Margins (%) 12.8 12.1 9.6 7.0 8.5

Balance Sheet (RM m)


Net Fixed Assets 93 88 109 117 103

Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 0Other LT Assets 12 12 11 10 9

Cash & ST Invts 140 219 171 164 182Inventory 192 144 222 221 244Debtors 48 50 55 62 68

Other Current Assets 0 0 1 1 1

Total AssetsTotal AssetsTotal AssetsTotal Assets 485485485485 512512512512 569569569569 575575575575 607607607607

ST Debt 31 19 37 15 15Creditor 79 89 110 122 135

Other Current Liab 10 9 11 11 11LT Debt 20 17 15 15 15

Other LT Liabilities 6 6 7 7 7Shareholders Equity 339 372 388 404 423

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0

Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab.Total Cap. & Liab. 485485485485 512512512512 569569569569 575575575575 607607607607

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital 151 96 157 150 167Net Cash/(Debt) 89 183 119 134 152Debtors Turn (avg days) 21.9 22.5 22.1 21.7 22.0

Creditors Turn (avg days) 86.8 76.8 81.9 83.0 82.8Inventory Turn (avg days) 187.3 153.8 150.6 158.3 149.6Asset Turnover (x) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Current Ratio (x) 3.2 3.5 2.8 3.0 3.1Quick Ratio (x) 1.6 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.5

Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH CASH

Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH CASHCapex to Debt (%) 52.9 44.8 82.1 115.8 36.6

Z-Score (X) 8.4 8.7 7.4 8.0 7.9


Revenue Trend

Asset Breakdown (2014)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50

100

150

200

250

4Q2012

1Q2013

2Q2013

3Q2013

4Q2013

1Q2014

2Q2014

3Q2014

4Q2014

1Q2015

R ev en ue R ev en ue Gr ow th % (Q oQ)

1Q15 gross margins droppedby 2ppts y-o-y to 45% due tomore aggressive sales

campaigns

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

Cash Flow Statement (RM m)


Pre-Tax Profit 130 118 126 133 154Dep. & Amort. 21 22 23 27 26

Tax Paid (29) (34) (36) (36) (42)

Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 0Chg in Wkg.Cap. (53) 47 (66) 6 (16)

Other Operating CF 6 7 (4) (2) (2)

Net Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CFNet Operating CF 74747474 160160160160 43434343 128128128128 120120120120Capital Exp.(net) (27) (16) (43) (35) (11)

Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 0Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 0

Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 0 0Other Investing CF 0 (7) (57) 2 2

Net Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CFNet Investing CF (27)(27)(27)(27) (23)(23)(23)(23) (100)(100)(100)(100) (33)(33)(33)(33) (9)(9)(9)(9)Div Paid (53) (53) (76) (80) (93)Chg in Gross Debt 4 (15) 16 (22) 0

Capital Issues 0 0 0 0 0Other Financing CF 0 0 0 0 0

Net Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CFNet Financing CF (49)(49)(49)(49) (67)(67)(67)(67) (59)(59)(59)(59) (103)(103)(103)(103) (93)(93)(93)(93)Currency Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0Chg in Cash (2) 69 (117) (7) 18

Opg CFPS (sen) 19.4 17.2 16.6 18.5 20.8Free CFPS (sen) 7.2 21.8 0.0 14.2 16.6


Capital Expenditure

Target Price & Ratings History

Source: AllianceDBS

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

45

50

2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F

Capital Expenditure (-)

S.No.S.No.S.No.S.No. Da teDateDateDateClosingClosingClosingClosing

PricePricePricePrice

TargetTargetTargetTarget

PricePr icePricePr iceRat ingRat ingRat ingRat ing

1: 26 Nov 13 1.78 1.75 Hold

2: 27 Feb 14 1.78 1.85 Hold

3: 03 Apr 14 2.00 2.40 Buy

4: 21 May 14 1.98 2.55 Buy

5: 29 May 14 2.01 2.55 Buy

6: 25 Jun 14 1.97 2.55 Buy

7: 28 Aug 14 1.87 2.45 Buy

Note Note Note No te : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1.51

1.61

1.71

1.81

1.91

2.01

2.11

Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14

RMRMRMRM

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

DISCLOSURE

Stock rating definitions

STRONG BUY - > 20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frameBUY - > 15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps

HOLD - -10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large capsFULLY VALUED - negative total return > -10% over the next 12 monthsSELL - negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame

Commonly used abbreviations

Adex = advertising expenditure EPS = earnings per share PBT = profit before taxbn = billion EV = enterprise value P/B = price / book ratioBV = book value FCF = free cash flow P/E = price / earnings ratioCF = cash flow FV = fair value PEG = P/E ratio to growth ratioCAGR = compounded annual growth rate FY = financial year q-o-q = quarter-on-quarterCapex = capital expenditure m = million RM = RinggitCY = calendar year M-o-m = month-on-month ROA = return on assetsDiv yld = dividend yield NAV = net assets value ROE = return on equityDCF = discounted cash flow NM = not meaningful TP = target price

DDM = dividend discount model NTA = net tangible assets trn = trillionDPS = dividend per share NR = not rated WACC = weighted average cost of capitalEBIT = earnings before interest & tax p.a. = per annum y-o-y = year-on-yearEBITDA = EBIT before depreciation and amortisation PAT = profit after tax YTD = year-to-date

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Company Focus

Padini Holdings

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared for information purposes only by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd (ADBSR) (formerly known as HwangDBSVickers Research Sdn Bhd), a subsidiary of Alliance Investment Bank Berhad (AIBB) and an associate of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd(DBSVH). DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. This report is strictly confidential and is meant for circulation to clients ofADBSR, AIBB and DBSVH only or such persons as may be deemed eligible to receive such research report, information or opinion contained

herein. Receipt and review of this report indicate your agreement not to distribute, reproduce or disclose in any other form or medium(whether electronic or otherwise) the contents, views, information or opinions contained herein without the prior written consent of ADBSR.

This report is based on data and information obtained from various sources believed to be reliable at the time of issuance of this report and anyopinion expressed herein is subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by ADBSRs affiliatesand/or related parties. ADBSR does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty (whether express or implied) as to the accuracy,completeness, reliability or fairness of the data and information obtained from such sources as may be contained in this report. As such, neitherADBSR nor its affiliates and/or related parties shall be held liable or responsible in any manner whatsoever arising out of or in connection withthe reliance and usage of such data and information or third party references as may be made in this report (including, but not limited to anydirect, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits and damages).

The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of thecompensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in thisreport. ADBSR prohibits the analyst(s) who prepared this report from receiving any compensation, incentive or bonus based on specificinvestment banking transactions or providing a specific recommendation for, or view of, a particular company.

This research report provides general information only and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any securitiesor other investments or any options, futures, derivatives or other instruments related to such securities or investments. In particular, it ishighlighted that this report is not intended for nor does it have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particularneeds of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are therefore advised to make their own independent evaluation of theinformation contained in this report, consider their own individual investment objectives, financial situations and particular needs and consulttheir own professional advisers (including but not limited to financial, legal and tax advisers) regarding the appropriateness of investing in anysecurities or investments that may be featured in this report.

ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their directors, representatives and employees or any of their affiliates or their related parties may,from time to time, have an interest in the securities mentioned in this report. AIBB, DBSVH and DBS Bank Ltd, their affiliates and/or theirrelated persons may do and/or seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this report and may from time to time act as market makeror have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell or buy such securities from customers on a principalbasis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to suchcompany(ies) as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report.

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ADBSR, AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (DBSVUSA), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer,may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company mentioned in this report. ADBSR,AIBB, DBSVH, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within thenext 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. DBSVUSA does not have its owninvestment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in thepast twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or toeffect a transaction in any security discussed in this report should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd is an authorisedperson in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research distributed inthe UK is intended only for institutional clients.

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make their own independent evaluation of the information contained herein.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director

Published and Printed by

AllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn BhdAllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd (128540 U)

(formerly known as HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd)

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