Pennsylvania Primary Brainroom Briefing Book

Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel

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Table of Contents

The 2008 Pennsylvania Primary – p. 3

Delegates Available on April 22 – p. 5

Profile of Pennsylvania – p. 6

Demographics – p. 8

Philadelphia – p. 9

The Youth Vote – p. 10

Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Are Very Different – p. 11

Western Pennsylvania – p. 12

The Catholic Vote – p. 13

Voter Registration – p. 14

Pennsylvania Primary History – p. 15

Results from Past Pennsylvania Primary Elections – p. 16

Women & Blacks Rarely Win in Pennsylvania – p. 17

Gun Control – p. 18

Political Advertising – p. 19

Unions and Independent Groups – p. 20

No Street Money?– p. 21

Endnotes – p. 22

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Pennsylvania Poll Times

Polls open at 7:00am EDT. Polls close at 8:00pm EDT.

The 2008 Pennsylvania Primary Not since 1976 have Pennsylvania voters had such a decisive say in who would be a presidential nominee. "Pennsylvanians don't often get a chance to matter in presidential primaries, and this year they have the opportunity to play a key role in one of the best political dramas in a generation," said Chris Borick, a politics professor at Muhlenberg College. "They're seizing that opportunity." 1 Clinton is favored to win the state. But with the contest so tight, both candidates are looking to build their vote totals toward a final victory. Obama leads Clinton in overall delegates, but neither is close to achieving the 2,025 needed to win the nomination. Obama also has a thin lead in the popular vote that Clinton would like to overturn before the final ballots are cast in June.2 A strong showing in Pennsylvania for Obama, if not a victory, would keep his accumulated lead in delegates and in the popular vote more or less intact. And it would puncture Clinton’s argument to superdelegates that he is a flawed candidate who cannot compete in the big closely contested states. Losing by a substantial margin would underscore the concern that even with seven weeks to map out a strategy, Obama had been unable to win over the white working-class voters who make up much of this state’s electorate and would be an important part of any nationwide Democratic coalition in the fall. Pennsylvania is the sixth-largest state by population, and apart from Illinois, Obama’s home state, it has the biggest and most diverse economy and population of any of the 27 contests he has won.3 If Obama loses badly in Pennsylvania on April 22, the momentum could shift to Clinton going into May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina vote. A poor showing in another general-election swing state would also raise questions among superdelegates -- the party leaders and elected officials who will probably determine the Democratic nominee -- about whether Obama could beat McCain in November. The Obama campaign has tried to lower its bar for success in Pennsylvania and has signaled an intention to trumpet anything short of a blowout victory by Clinton as one of its most significant triumphs of the primary season. To win in the state, Obama will probably need to run up big totals in and around Philadelphia, in the Lehigh Valley and in south-central Pennsylvania. A health nut, Obama has consumed hot dogs, french fries and homemade chocolates. He has sipped a few Yuengling beers. He has largely skipped arena-filling rallies in favor of town-hall-style events and casual visits, delivering populist appeals to the small-town, working-class voters who have proven most resistant to his candidacy. Despite a few stumbles -- at an Altoona bowling alley, Obama rolled a ball into a gutter on his first try -- political observers say had started to make the inroads with voters he will need to cut into Clinton's lead.4

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Obama has come under attack for telling a private audience at a California fundraiser that economically frustrated people in small towns get bitter and "cling to guns or religion" to express their feelings. Obama since has said he could have chosen better words and that he regretted offending anyone.5 Both Clinton and McCain have worked to keep Obama’s bitter comments in the news in order to do as much damage to Obama as possible. Clinton has run a state campaign similar to Obama's, mixing small-scale and larger events that focus on pocketbook issues such as middle-class tax cuts and the creation of new manufacturing jobs. Her crowds are also boisterous, filled with shout-outs and standing ovations, along with signs that say "Don't quit." She has taken to comparing herself to Rocky Balboa, the underdog boxer who does not know how to give in or give up. This gritty, ground-level strategy carried Clinton to a convincing victory in Ohio, a state with economic challenges and working-class demographics similar to Pennsylvania's.6

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided Rasmussen 4/17/08 730 LV 47 44 9 Rasmussen 4/14/08 741 LV 50 41 9 Times/Bloomberg 4/10-14/08 623 LV 46 41 12 ARG 4/11-13/08 600 LV 57 37 4 Quinnipiac 4/9-13/08 2103 LV 50 44 6

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Delegates Available on April 22 At stake in the primary are the state's 158 Democratic pledged delegates, which will be apportioned according to each candidate's share of the vote. Pennsylvania also has 29 superdelegates. Pennsylvania’s 74 GOP delegates are technically unpledged.

State Type Who can participate Dem delegates Rep Delegates

Pennsylvania Closed Primary

Only registered party members may vote in either party’s primary.

158 in the primary

103 district level 55 statewide 29 super-delegates Total: 187

Pledged district level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each of the state's 19 congressional districts, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.

61 in the primary

57 district level 14 statewide* 3 RNC delegates Total: 74

Voters will elect 61 delegates directly in the primary, the Republican State Committee will choose 10 others in June and the other three delegates are automatically selected because they serve on the Republican National Committee.

Pennsylvania’s 74 GOP delegates are technically unpledged. Delegates are directly elected on the ballot without indication of their presidential preference. The GOP presidential primary race (the one with the candidate’s names on the primary ballots) is a “beauty contest.”

* = 4 of the 14 at-large delegates are allocated to those congressional districts that have best supported GOP candidates over the last four years. Each of those districts receives 1 extra delegate.

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Profile of Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is a swing state not because of a moderate disposition (it's no Iowa or New Mexico) but because it encompasses the incongruities of American society, from the bluest of blue-blooded aristocrats on Philadelphia's Main Line to the bluest of blue-collar guys in the bars of Aliquippa. It's urban; it's rural. It's the Mellon Bank; it's the United Mine Workers. It's Swarthmore; it's South Philly. It's Andy Warhol; it's Joe Paterno. In the Republic's early days, someone dubbed Pennsylvania the Keystone State because it was the place where North joined South. Today it is a psychic keystone. Pennsylvanians have supplied our money, oil, coal, steel--and now our zeitgeist. Political scientist G. Terry Madonna of Franklin and Marshall College in southeastern Pennsylvania perceives a "pattern we've seen in other industrial states: Clinton starts with a big lead, Obama rushes in with a lot of TV and events, and the race tightens." Obama has barnstormed the state with newly detailed proposals for the economy and health care. He is outspending Clinton nearly 3 to 1 on the airwaves, Madonna says. Two of his most heavily played ads stress his humble roots and sound the populist trumpet. Yet Clinton's poll numbers in the state have averaged in the high 40s since early February. Her people don't appear to be budging.7 Pennsylvania has a complex political landscape, one that is largely favorable to Clinton. The western part of the state is grittier, the east is more prosperous. Obama faces demographic disadvantages. While he draws young people and those with college degrees, Pennsylvania has one of the highest concentrations of people over 65 (15 percent, compared with a national average of 12 percent) and one of the lowest of people with college degrees (22 percent, compared with a national average of 24 percent).8 Stumping for votes in the sprawling state of Pennsylvania is like running three separate races at once. One distinct battleground in the April 22 primary is the region in the southeastern corner of the state dominated by Philadelphia, with its large immigrant and African-American communities, prosperous suburbs and liberal East Coast sensibility. The western end of the state revolves around post-industrial Pittsburgh, heavy with elderly and blue-collar voters. In between is a vast, largely rural expanse that usually leans Republican, but is also dotted with faded industrial towns that are crucial for any Democrat seeking to rack up votes. Clinton won Ohio by focusing on white, ethnic middle-class and working-class voters' concerns about economic pressures such as high gas prices and soaring health-care costs, and the loss of jobs to foreign competition. Those voters dominate the western end of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania also happens to have the third-highest percentage of residents age 65 or over, behind Florida and West Virginia. Older voters tend to support Clinton.9 Few doubt that Obama will carry Philadelphia, where more than 40 percent of Democrats are African-American. It is also home to upper-income white liberals and students, two other groups that have supported him. At the same time, the city’s mayor, Michael Nutter, is working on behalf of Clinton, as is the state’s popular governor and former Philadelphia mayor, Edward G. Rendell. Much of the city’s white working class also supports her. If past elections are a guide, Obama’s success will lie in how much he can increase the turnout in Philadelphia and its surrounding suburban counties, with their pockets of affluent, educated white liberals. The suburbs are expected to be a major battleground.

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It was Rendell’s near-total reliance on the Philadelphia media market that won him the primary for governor in 2002, and many analysts here see Obama copying that strategy, which is interesting because Mr. Rendell is such a big cheerleader for Clinton.10 Obama is trying to broaden his popularity beyond Philadelphia. He has a constituency in Pittsburgh's African-American community as well as among Pittsburgh's suburban voters and college students throughout the state. Analysts point out that 40% of the state's Democrats don't live in either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, which makes a full-state campaign crucial to victory.11 Outside the Philadelphia media market, the state is trickier for Obama, especially in the west. Part of Pittsburgh, in Allegheny County, with blacks and liberal whites is a likely oasis for him, but the surrounding region of conservative, blue-collar Reagan Democrats, many of them Roman Catholic, will be among his toughest audiences. Johnstown is the hardscrabble, blue-collar base of John P. Murtha, the powerful congressman, and one of Clinton’s staunchest allies.12 Sen. Casey's support could help among more conservative Democrats, particularly in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre region, where his family is a fabled political brand.13 Economic anxiety is high in Pennsylvania, as it is in much of the country. Inflation-adjusted wages have fallen at every level in the state since the 2001 recession. While median wages are up 0.3% nationally, they are down 1.1% in Pennsylvania. The top 10% of workers nationally have enjoyed a 3.1% increase in wages, but in Pennsylvania, top earners' wages are down 3.5%, according to the Keystone Research Center.14 The challenge for the candidates is finding a uniform message that resonates across the state. The risk is that a message crafted for one area falls flat or contradicts a message delivered several counties away. While Philadelphia has many white-collar workers and others engaged in businesses that thrive on exports, the western end of the state is dominated by free-trade skeptics who have witnessed the exodus of heavy industry. Many western and central parts of the state still rely heavily on coal mining and frown on some clean-energy initiatives that appeal to Philadelphia's urban voters.15

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Demographics Pennsylvania’s 2007 population of 12.4 million has a higher median age than the nation as a whole, a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 65 percent of Pennsylvania’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, about the same as the national rate of 64 percent.

Selected Characteristics Pennsylvania U.S. Median age 39.5 36.4 Women 51.4% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 82.1% 66.4% Black alone 10.7% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 4.2% 14.8% Median household income $46,259 $48,451 Foreign born 5.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.1% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 25.4% 27.0% Median home value $145,200 $185,20016

Below is a breakdown of religious affiliation in Pennsylvania from the 2008 U.S. Religious Landscape Survey conducted by Washington-based Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. Pew surveyed 1,896 Pennsylvania adults as part of its nationwide survey and produce data for the following breakdown on religious affiliation. The survey has a 2.5 percent margin of error for Pennsylvania:

Religion Percentage Catholic 29% Protestant Mainline 25% Protestant Evangelical 18% Protestant Historically Black 7% Unaffiliated 13% Jewish 2% Jehovah’s Witness 1% Orthodox Christian 1% Muslim <0.5% Buddhist <0.5% Hindu <0.5%17

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Philadelphia Obama is strongly favored in Philadelphia and surveys show him holding a slight lead in the arc of four increasingly Democratic counties around the city. Short of a win, Obama-backing strategists are looking to drive up the vote in Obama-friendly coutnies to cut into Clinton's delegate count. Seven of the state's 19 congressional districts yield 50 of the state's 103 elected delegates. All but one of those districts are concentrated in and around Philadelphia.18 Change is the buzzword in Philadelphia and its suburbs as Pennsylvania's Democratic primary approaches. Its neighborhoods have become more diverse, thanks largely to a 14 percent boost in its foreign-born population, according to Census Bureau figures, and to a strong migration of New Yorkers lured by cheaper housing and a civilized rail commute to their Big Apple jobs. With the exception of a few pockets, the city of Philadelphia itself remains solidly Democratic, home to about 700,000 of the state's 3.2 million Democrats. About 46 percent of the city's Democrats are African American, 44 percent are white and 10 percent are Hispanic. But the mix of new residents and growth in young registered voters is changing the city's electorate, making it more liberal and looking to shed the machine-style politics that's long ruled the city, according to Don Kettl, a University of Pennsylvania political science professor. Kettl and other Pennsylvania political analysts say that the change should benefit Obama. He should win the city decisively, largely on the strength of African-American votes in North and West Philadelphia and white support from Center City and the college campuses of University City. Clinton's support lies in predominantly Roman Catholic and conservative areas such as South Philadelphia, traditionally Italian, and Northeast Philadelphia, an Irish stronghold. The influx of new residents hasn't kept pace with the steady exodus of old ones. About 10,000 people per year move out of Philadelphia in frustration over violent crime -- the city had 392 homicides last year -- and an underperforming public school system. The departures have dropped Philadelphia, long the nation's fourth-largest city, to sixth-largest, now below Houston and Phoenix, according to census data. It's the Philly suburbs -- Bucks, Montgomery and Delaware counties -- where Clinton and Obama will slug it out for the lion's share of new voters, who political experts say could be the deciding factor in the statewide primary.19 Both candidates have stepped up efforts to court a prized constituency: the young, college-educated women who reside in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Both candidates have campaigned at old steel factories that have been repurposed to create green jobs in Bucks County. Clinton, who has doggedly courted blue-collar steel and manufacturing workers in the state, unveiled a middle-class-tax-cut proposal in Philadelphia. In an effort to court women voters, Obama released a 30-second television ad in the state that features his wife, Michelle, his half-sister and his grandmother. Clinton held a "rally for women" in the Philadelphia suburb of Blue Bell last month that drew 3,000 supporters. Obama volunteers spent much of March registering new voters and encouraging Republicans and independents to change their affiliation. Of the state's more than 300,000 new Democratic voters this year, nearly 45% come from Philadelphia and its four suburban counties, which account for about one-quarter of the state's 12 million residents.20

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The Youth Vote Obama and Clinton are hustling for the youth vote in Pennsylvania. Campuses in the cities and mountainsides are alive with political activism, stirred most notably by Obama in student registration drives aimed at replicating his success with young voters dating to the Iowa caucus in January. Pennsylvania ranks third in the nation in the percentage of people 65 and older, a group that has favored Clinton elsewhere and appears strong for her here. Obama is counting on a big showing from the state's nearly 700,000 college students on more than 150 campuses. The Illinois senator has received the support of about 60 percent of voters aged 18-24 in competitive states, exit polls indicate, and his advantage with that group doesn't appear to be waning in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania makes voting easy for students from other states because it only requires 30 days residency to register. However, no one who voted in an earlier primary elsewhere can vote again here. In Philadelphia, where more than 100,000 college students live, Obama volunteers with voter registration forms in hand have been on campuses and at train stations around Philadelphia's bustling University City district, encouraging their peers to register. Obama's campaign ran an ad in Pittsburgh and Harrisburg before the state's March 24 registration deadline aimed at drumming up new young voters. It cited his opposition to the Iraq war and his plan to help loan-burdened college students. Additional efforts by Obama to reach young voters in Pennsylvania include a text messaging program that allows supporters to communicate with each other and receive information about events, said Sean Smith, a campaign spokesman. Facebook co-creator Chris Hughes has been in the state training people how to use the social networking site for outreach, Smith said. In all, the campaign has more than 50 student chapters in Pennsylvania. During a recent Obama rally at Penn State University in State College, more than 20,000 people crowded onto a campus lawn to see him, many of them students wrapped in blankets against the cold. Clinton's campaign also is after younger voters with registration drives, rallies and about 30 student groups. "Ugly Betty" star America Ferrera is among celebrities who have campaigned in Pennsylvania for Clinton, as has the New York senator's daughter, Chelsea. More than 235,000 people have registered as Democrats in Pennsylvania since last year. State authorities estimate nearly 10 percent of the 4 million registered Democrats are ages 18-24 and about 20 percent are 65 or older.21

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Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Are Very Different In Democratic politics, the contrasts between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are so sharp that they might decide the outcome of the state's presidential primary. The Pittsburgh area, according to polls and politicos-in-the-know, is Clinton territory. The Philadelphia area is the Keystone State's biggest stronghold for Obama. Neither of the state's big metropolitan areas - Philadelphia ranks fourth nationally; Pittsburgh, 21st - is anywhere near the most youthful, the trendiest, or the fastest-growing. But compared at least with Pittsburgh, the Philadelphia area, including its four suburban counties, is young and booming. Dan Onorato, the elected executive of Pittsburgh's Allegheny County, said it was telling that Pittsburgh had a low population of immigrants - just 5.6 percent - compared with 9 percent in Philadelphia. Pittsburgh's Asian population, according to a U.S. Census estimate, is just 2.7 percent. Philadelphia's is not all that large - 4.5 percent - but it is nearly twice that of its sister city to the west. The Latino population is 1.3 percent in Pittsburgh, 8.5 percent in Philadelphia. Pittsburgh's African American population is also much lower than Philadelphia's - 27 percent, compared with 43 percent. The greater rootedness of the Pittsburgh area has led to a greater conservatism, even among Democrats. It was there, in 1980, that the term Reagan Democrat was applied. It referred to mill workers in the hills and hollows around Pittsburgh - many of them Catholics with roots in Eastern Europe - who believed in the liberal economics of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal but were with Ronald Reagan on social issues such as guns and abortion. Philadelphia, in the 1990s, adopted an ordinance that banned assault weapons - a law that was later struck down by the pro-gun state legislature. Pittsburgh, the analysts said, would never have taken such a stance. Philadelphians struggling with the loss of jobs in a souring economy might not feel especially lucky compared with anyone anywhere. But Pittsburgh, which lost the bulk of its steel industry a generation ago, still depends more heavily than Philadelphia on manufacturing.22

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Western Pennsylvania The blue-collar workers who populate western Pennsylvania are quintessential Reagan Democrats, descendants of European immigrants drawn by the promise of work in the coal mines and steel mills who allied with the Democratic Party as they formed unions. Their ties to the party loosened following the economic stagnation of the 1970s and conflict over cultural issues, such as guns and abortion. The political judgment they make in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary will be one of the next great tests in the presidential campaign. They will be a crucial constituency in the primary. But possibly more significantly, their votes will provide a fresh reading on the appeal of Obama among white working-class voters that party officials and convention superdelegates will be watching, along with results from the Indiana primary on May 6, as they consider whether to fall in behind Obama and end a potentially divisive contest for the Democratic nomination. "If Sen. [Hillary] Clinton beats Sen. Obama by a big margin -- 15 [percentage] points or better -- she will have planted fresh doubts about his chances in the general election," said Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a think tank allied with the moderate Democratic Leadership Council. Obama has struggled to win over these blue-collar voters in recent primaries. A question about his difficulties in Pennsylvania rural areas provoked his recent controversial remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser that economic distress has made people in small-town America "bitter" and led them to "cling to" guns or religion. Obama has set a priority on winning over working-class voters in Pennsylvania. He began his campaign in this state with a six-day bus tour through industrial towns that featured regular photo-ops at blue-collar hangouts. Though a Democratic candidate does not necessarily need to win the white working-class bloc to win the nomination or even the general election, he or she must at least do better than 2004 nominee John Kerry, who lost the group to President Bush by 23 percentage points, said Ruy Teixeira, a visiting fellow at Brookings and author of several books on political demography. All but two of the 12 most closely contested states in the last two presidential elections have representations of white working-class voters well above the national average. New Mexico and Florida are the exceptions. And in November, Pennsylvania will be one of the biggest prizes.23

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The Catholic Vote Clinton has fared well among Catholic voters in early primary states and she holds a substantial lead over Obama among Catholic Democrats in Pennsylvania polls. Some analysts argue, however, that Catholic voters' race, age and economic status — rather than religion — are more likely to play a greater role in determining their vote. Pennsylvania has an estimated 3.8 million Catholics, or just over 30 percent of the state's population, and the percentage among Democrats is estimated to be slightly higher. In the 1960s, Catholics overwhelmingly supported John F. Kennedy, the only Catholic elected to the White House. In recent years, many have moved toward Republican candidates, drawn by the party's opposition to abortion. In the last presidential election, some U.S. bishops were outspoken in criticizing Catholic politicians who support abortion rights in conflict with church teaching, including 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. President Bush, a Methodist who opposes abortion rights, won 52 percent of the Catholic vote against Kerry, the practicing Catholic, in 2004. This election, available exit polls show Clinton with a 61-35 percent edge over Obama among Catholic voters.24 Exit polls show that Clinton captured 63% of the Catholic vote in Ohio and 65% in Texas. Even in states in which she Clinton lost to Obama by double digits she, in some cases, won among Catholics. Catholic voters gravitate to Clinton for various reasons, including favorable memories of her husband's administration and her long-term emphasis on universal health care. Some of her positive showing among Catholics is a result of overlapping constituencies like white working-class voters and Hispanics.25 Analysts wonder whether Clinton is doing well with some Catholics because they also are part of her base, including Hispanics, blue-collar voters and older women. With traditional Democrats who are Catholic, the perception is that Clinton is more of a known quantity who paid her dues in the party. Clinton is a Methodist and Obama is a member of the United Church of Christ. Both candidates support abortion rights. In Pennsylvania, many Democrats were outraged in 1992 when party leaders denied Gov. Casey a prime-time spot to speak out against abortion at the Democratic convention that nominated Clinton's husband. In 2006, Casey's son handily defeated Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, a fellow Catholic, by winning a majority of the Catholic vote and gaining back some voters who had shifted to the Republican Party. Like his father, the younger Casey opposes abortion rights.26 Obama has been touting the endorsement of Sen. Bob Casey.27 In general elections, Democratic presidential candidates since Bill Clinton in 1992 won the Catholic vote in the state — as well as Pennsylvania.28

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Voter Registration Voter registration for Pennsylvania's April 22 presidential primary is close to setting a record, and a surge of Democratic sign-ups has reversed years of Republican domination in two suburban Philadelphia counties. Statewide registration stands at 8.32 million — fewer than 50,000 votes shy of breaking the record set in the 2004 presidential election, according to updated county totals state officials released April 7. That total is expected to grow because county officials continue to process applications that were filed by the March 24 deadline. The number of registered Democrats is 4.2 million, up 8% since last fall's election, reflecting intense interest in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Clinton and Obama. They are competing for 158 delegates to the national nominating convention in Denver in August — the largest group of delegates that will be awarded in the contests remaining. As a result of the latest updates, Democrats outnumber Republicans in Bucks and Montgomery counties — both longtime GOP bastions — for the first time in recent memory. Democrats also have made steady gains in neighboring Chester and Delaware counties, largely because of recruitment drives by the Obama and Clinton campaigns, but the Republican Party remains the majority party there. Republican registration declined statewide by about 2% to 3.2 million, while the number of voters unaffiliated with either party declined by about 4% to 942,867.29 On the last day to register, about 33,300 first-time voters signed up as Democrats and another 46,000 Pennsylvanians switched to the blue party. By comparison in the same period, Republicans picked up about 6,000 new registrants and just 1,800 others switched to the Grand Old Party, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State.30 Some 217,000 new Pennsylvania voters were added this year.31

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Pennsylvania Primary History Pennsylvania held its first presidential primary on April 13, 1912—just hours before the Titanic encountered the iceberg. But the heyday of the Keystone State primary came more than a half century later, when candidates who fashioned themselves as champions of the lunch-bucket crowd first had to prove themselves in Pennsylvania. Hubert Humphrey in 1972, Edward Kennedy in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984 all scored key victories in Democratic primary voting in Pennsylvania that advanced their candidacies. Henry Jackson lost the Pennsylvania primary decisively to Jimmy Carter in 1976, and folded his campaign shortly thereafter.32 In the spring of 1976, as the presidential primaries moved into Pennsylvania, Carter still had to prove his strength in the big northern states. The Pennsylvania primary, on April 27, loomed as the last chance for his foes - who included many liberals and pro-union Democrats - to stop him. Carter opposition was mainly split between Jackson and Udall. But on primary day, almost a fifth of the vote was cast for a half-dozen minor candidates, including Pennsylvania Gov. Milton Shapp, who had withdrawn from the race but whose name was still on the ballot. Carter got 37 percent of the vote, which was enough to beat Jackson by more than 12 percentage points and Udall by more than 18. Carter won 64 of the state's 67 counties, but lost Philadelphia to Jackson. That fall, he went on to defeat incumbent Gerald Ford for the presidency. That marked the last time that Pennsylvania primary voters played a pivotal role in picking the nominee of either major party for president. Political historians point out that the state's 1980 primary was a big chapter in the divisive challenge by Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to President Jimmy Carter, but they say the challenge had little chance of succeeding. Come 1980, despite Carter's big Pennsylvania win in 1976, leading Pennsylvania Democrats were not in love with him. His performance in office had raised many more doubts among fellow party leaders. Kennedy, brother of the late Democratic President John F. Kennedy, embodied the hopes of many anti-Carter Democrats for a candidate who could defeat Ronald Reagan that year.33 The regional rivalry can be quite sharp in Democratic contests. In 1980, Kennedy won decisively in the Philadelphia area and carried several other industrial counties in eastern Pennsylvania. But west of the Susquehanna River, Kennedy could carry just one county.34 In the end, Kennedy won Pennsylvania with 45.7 percent of the vote to Carter's 45.4 percent. It was enough to keep his campaign alive for a few more weeks, but not enough to make it successful. Since 1980, Pennsylvania and its primary have always been too late for the dance.35 The Democratic primary was not close at all in 1984, since Mondale was able to win both ends of the state. And it has not been particularly relevant since then, with the April voting coming too late to affect the nominating contests. Jesse Jackson could carry little more than Philadelphia in 1988 against Michael Dukakis. Four years later against Bill Clinton, Jerry Brown won only Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre) and Lacakawanna (Scranton) counties, the home base of the state's anti-abortion Democratic governor, Robert P. Casey.36

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Results from Past Pennsylvania Primary Elections

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS

Year Turnout Candidates % Turnout Candidates %

2004 789,882 JOHN KERRY 74.15 861,555 GEORGE W BUSH 100

(April 27) Howard Dean 10.1

John Edwards 9.72

Dennis Kucinich 3.81

Lyndon Larouche 2.22

2000 707,990 AL GORE 74.2 651,809 GEORGE W BUSH 72.47

(April 4) Bill Bradley 20.73 John McCain 22.36

Lyndon Larouche 4.53 Steve Forbes 2.48

Other 0.54 Gary Bauer 1.35

Alan Keyes 1.09

Other 0.25

1996 724,069 BILL CLINTON* 92 684,204 BOB DOLE 64

(April 23) Pat Buchanan 18

1992 1,265,495 BILL CLINTON 57 1,008,777 GEORGE BUSH* 77

(April 28) Jerry Brown 26 Pat Buchanan 23

Paul Tsongas 13

1988 1,507,690 MICHAEL DUKAKIS 66 870,549 GEORGE BUSH 79

(April 26) Jesse Jackson 27 Bob Dole 12

1984 1,656,294 WALTER MONDALE 45 621,206 RONALD REAGAN* 99

(April 10) Gary Hart 33

Jesse Jackson 16

1980 1,613,551 EDWARD KENNEDY 46 1,241,411 GEORGE BUSH 50

(April 22) Jimmy Carter* 45 Ronald Reagan 43

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Results from Past Pennsylvania Primary Elections

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS

Year Turnout Candidates % Turnout Candidates %

1976 1,385,042 JIMMY CARTER 37 796,660 GERALD FORD* 92

(April 27) Henry Jackson 25 Morris Udall 19

George Wallace 11

1972 1,374,839 HUBERT HUMPHREY 35 184,801 RICHARD NIXON*# 83

(April 25) George Wallace 21 George Wallace# 11

George McGovern 20

Edmund Muskie 20

1968 597,089 EUGENE McCARTHY 72 287,573 RICHARD NIXON# 60

(April 23) Robert Kennedy# 11 Nelson Rockefeller# 18

Note: All candidates are listed that drew at least 10 percent of their party's primary vote. The names of winning candidates are capitalized. An asterisk (*) indicates an incumbent president. A pound sign (#) indicates a write-in candidate.37

Women & Blacks Rarely Win in Pennsylvania Voters in Pennsylvania rarely elect black and female candidates. But they will have to choose one or the other in the April 22 Democratic presidential primary between Obama and Clinton. Pennsylvania currently has only one black person and one woman in its 21-member congressional delegation and has never had a black or female governor. Only one black and one woman have ever sought the governorship on a major party ticket. Some chalk it up to the parties' failure to recruit more women and blacks, and a tendency to favor incumbents over untested upstarts. Some theories hold that juggling young families and political careers deters women from seeking full-time office or voters from choosing them. Some believe the concentration of blacks in urban areas works against black candidates for statewide office who must seek votes in predominantly white rural counties. Pennsylvania's voting-age population is more than 50 percent female and about 10 percent black, but neither group has comparable representation among top state and federal elective offices. One of the worst showings: Only 15 percent of the 253 seats in the Legislature are filled by women, leaving Pennsylvania 43rd nationally. Pennsylvania did not always trail other states in electing women. In 1922, two years after women got the vote, Pennsylvanians elected the first women to the Legislature. Eight won state House seats, making Pennsylvania a national leader, Pennsylvania State Rep. Kathy Manderino, D-Philadelphia, said.38

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Gun Control Obama and Clinton are gingerly threading their way between two of the most politically charged numbers in Pennsylvania: the state's almost 1 million licensed hunters and Philadelphia's nearly one-a-day rate of gun murders. Gun control arouses deep emotions here. Deadly shootings have earned the state's largest city the ominous nickname: "Killadelphia." One of the strongest antigun control groups, the National Rifle Association, has 250,000 members in Pennsylvania, more than in any other state. This month the Pennsylvania House soundly defeated a bill to require handgun owners to report the theft or loss of their guns to police. As the state's hotly contested April 22 primary approaches, the Democratic presidential candidates have struggled to avoid alienating either side, to the point of pandering. Obama assures people he has "no intention of taking away folks' guns," but believes in background checks for prospective gun buyers. Clinton has called for renewing the national ban on assault-type weapons and allowing federal authorities to share gun-tracing information with local police. Obama has ridiculed the New York senator's attempts to identify with the rural gun culture, joking that "she's talking like she's Annie Oakley." This, as the Illinois senator tries to overcome the furor over his remarks that embittered blue-collar voters "cling to guns and religion" because they trust no politician to relieve their economic plight. In Pennsylvania's debate over gun control, Philadelphia is ground zero. In the City of Brotherly Love, police say 343 people were killed by guns in 2006, and 330 more in 2007. The pace is slower so far this year, but already 58 have died in shootings. The Legislature has placed gun regulation under its exclusive control, so Philadelphia is powerless to impose its own restrictions. City officials, legislators and second-term Gov. Ed Rendell -- a gun-control advocate who has a home in Philadelphia -- perennially push for state laws they say would help police crack down on illegal gun trafficking, but without success. This month's defeat of the gun theft reporting measure left some wondering whether any gun-control measure can pass. Outside Philadelphia and other cities, the traditions of hunting and gun ownership run deep in this mostly rural state. Between 2002 and 2006, nearly 2 million rifles, shotguns and handguns were legally purchased or transferred in the state, according to the state police. Last year, the state Game Commission sold 945,000 general hunting licenses, including more than 850,000 purchased by deer hunters.39

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Political Advertising Obama has stayed ahead of Clinton in advertising in the state, spending about $7 million statewide to her $2.7 million, according to Evan Tracey, of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, a political ad tracking firm. But in the expensive Philadelphia media market, Tracey said, Clinton has caught up to Obama in broadcast ads.40 The two campaigns have bought at least $4.5 million of time for commercials in the closing week. According to industry sources, Obama has bought more than $3 million of time, breaking the Pennsylvania record he set last week. About 60 percent of the money is going for ads in the Philadelphia market. Clinton has purchased at least $1.4 million, her largest buy to date in Pennsylvania.41 Philadelphia stations will take in more than $2.5 million of that total in the closing week, including $445,000 spent on cable - an impressive 17 percent. Cable's average for the five weeks running up to the primary is even more impressive: 22 percent. Obama continues to outspend Clinton here by more than a 2-1 ratio. On Fox29, for example, he bought 30-second spots on every single Fox prime-time show for the week. That's 15 programs, including House, Bones, Cops, America's Most Wanted, Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?, The Simpsons, Family Guy and American Dad. He bought three spots on powerhouse American Idol, at $22,500 a pop. Idol was Clinton's only prime-time buy. She has one spot. The differential in Philadelphia is even higher in cable: Obama bought $378,000 (22 percent of his total buy) in the final week to Clinton's $68,000 (8 percent.) Nationally, cable accounts for about 20 percent of political ads this election cycle, experts say, up sharply from the 2004 presidential campaign. Along with news channels (CNN, Fox News, MSNBC), Clinton and Obama have bought spots on Lifetime, A&E, ESPN, BET, History Channel, Animal Planet, MTV, VH1, the Food Network and Sci Fi. In the five-week run-up to the primary, Pennsylvania took in a total of more than $13 million in election-related TV spots. Philadelphia alone had $7.7 million, including $1.7 million for cable.42

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Unions and Independent Groups The Pennsylvania primary is more than a contest between Obama and Clinton. It's a showdown between two rival factions in organized labor and whether they can deliver for their presidential hopeful. Pennsylvania has the fourth highest total of union workers in the nation. With by far the largest bloc of union voters remaining on the campaign calendar - 830,000 workers - the April 22 primary could demonstrate whether Clinton has expanded her edge over Obama among working-class voters and emerged as labor's decisive favorite for president. Or whether Obama has whittled her support to a virtual draw in a state where unemployment is at its highest in more than two years. Each Democrat has the backing of a well-financed coalition of unions determined to produce a crucial victory for its preferred candidate - and in the process earn the enduring gratitude of the person it hopes will be the next president. Clinton has a larger number of unions on her side including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the American Federation of Teachers and the International Association of Machinists - and one Change to Win union, the United Farm Workers. Obama is backed by some politically powerful unions as well: Change to Win's Teamsters, SEIU, UNITE HERE and United Food and Commercial Workers - as well as the Change to Win organization, Laborers District Council of Metro Philadelphia, and some smaller AFL-CIO unions. Clinton already has won five of the eight states with the largest union populations: California (2,474,000), her home state of New York (2,055,000), the disputed primary in Michigan (819,000), New Jersey (748,000) and Ohio (730,000). Obama won two, his home state of Illinois (842,000) and Washington state (579,000).43 Independent political groups are blanketing Pennsylvania with volunteers and campaign mailers, as they try to help Clinton and Obama. AFSCME President Gerald McEntee said the union was expected to have about 135 staffers working in Pennsylvania by primary day. The AFT planned to send pro-Clinton mailers to its 40,000 members in the state and sent 75 workers to help turn out votes for Clinton. The union has spent more than $320,000 on a radio ad that casts the former first lady as the candidate who can best take on McCain.44

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No Street Money? Campaigning in Pennsylvania, Obama has collided with the gritty political traditions of Philadelphia, where ward bosses love their candidates, but also expect them to pay up. Obama's people are telling the local bosses he won't pay "street money," a long-standing Philadelphia ritual in which candidates deliver cash to the city's Democratic operatives in return for their getting out the vote. It's all legal. The ward leaders and Democratic bosses typically spread out the cash from the campaign in the days before the election, handing $10, $20 and $50 bills to the foot soldiers and loyalists who make up the party's work force in getting out the vote. Neighborhood political leaders sympathetic to Obama's cause caution that if he withholds money that gubernatorial, mayoral and presidential candidates have willingly paid out for decades, there could be defections to Clinton. And her campaign, in contrast, will oblige in forking over the money, these ward leaders predict. 45 "We're not going to pay for votes or pay for turnout," Obama told the Philadelphia Daily News before speaking to hundreds of ward leaders and committeepeople at the party's pre-election day fundraiser. Clinton wasn't available to reporters to discuss her campaign's decision to stiff the party faithful, but her chief Pennsylvania booster, Gov. Rendell was. "Senator Clinton has no street money," Rendell said. "We barely have enough to communicate on basic media. Senator Obama has money to burn." Many party veterans say the lack of street cash won't matter in a highly visible and hotly contested presidential primary, since voters are already energized and won't be persuaded by a committeeperson's recommendation. But that doesn't mean it won't bruise some feelings. Former city councilman and ward leader Ed Schwartz said that street money doesn't deserve the seedy connotation it has among political reformers. He said it funds something valuable for the party and communities in the city. He recalled working hard and getting a 90 percent turnout in his voting division for Jimmy Carter in 1976. "They weren't voting for Jimmy Carter, they were voting for themselves and me," Schwartz said, "because I would tell them, 'Your vote determines your value to the political system.' "Asked if committee people had to be paid to work for a candidate they believe in, Schwartz said, "People feel if a candidate is willing to pay millions of dollars for a TV ad, they ought to be willing to pay a hundred dollars for somebody really trying to get the vote out. It's a dignity thing."46 In 1980, President Jimmy Carter, locked in a tight primary battle with U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy, dispatched his vice president, Walter Mondale, to Pennsylvania to campaign. The effort included a luncheon with Philadelphia's Democratic ward leaders, at which Mondale gave his standard pitch on Carter's policies on the economy and human rights. As recounted in the Washington Post two years later: "[Ward leader Sam Grillo] interrupted the candidate in mid-response to get right to the long-range imperatives of the making of the next president. 'That's great, but tell me something, Mister Vice President,' Grillo said. 'On Election Day are we going to have street money?' " The anecdote cemented Pennsylvania's image as one of the last bastions of ward politics.47 Street money is also an enduring political practice in Chicago; Baltimore; Newark, N.J.; and Los Angeles.48

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Endnotes 1 Philadelphia Inquirer, “Pa. Democrats register in record numbers for April primary.” April 1, 2008. 2 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama, Clinton make Pennsylvania push,” 18 April 2008. 3 NY Times, “Obama to Begin Push in Pennsylvania in Hope of Offsetting Clinton Advantages.” March 28, 2008. 4 Washington Post, “Obama Changes Approach to Reach Blue-Collar Voters in Pennsylvania.” April 2, 2008. 5 USA Today, “Clinton plays up Obama's 'bitter' quote as 'elitist.'” April 14, 2008. 6 Washington Post, “Obama Changes Approach to Reach Blue-Collar Voters in Pennsylvania.” April 2, 2008. 7 Time, “It's Their Turn Now.” 21 April 2008. 8 Wall Street Journal, “Clinton Uses History as Pennsylvania Guide.” March 27, 2008. 9 The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Driving Hard for Keystone Prize.” 31 March 2008. 10 Washington Post, “Obama Changes Approach to Reach Blue-Collar Voters in Pennsylvania.” April 2, 2008. 11 The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Driving Hard for Keystone Prize.” 31 March 2008. 12 NY Times, “Obama to Begin Push in Pennsylvania in Hope of Offsetting Clinton Advantages.” March 28, 2008. 13 Washington Post, “Obama Changes Approach to Reach Blue-Collar Voters in Pennsylvania.” April 2, 2008. 14 Wall Street Journal, “Clinton Uses History as Pennsylvania Guide.” March 27, 2008. 15 The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Driving Hard for Keystone Prize.” 31 March 2008. 16 U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006). 17 Reuters News, “FACTBOX-Clinton, Obama navigate religion in Pennsylvania,” 16 April 2008. 18 AP, “Philadelphia suburbs hold key to Pa. primary,” April 18, 2008. 19 The Miami Herald, “A changing Philly could be key to Pennsylvania primary,” 15 April 2008. 20 Wall Street Journal, “Clinton and Obama Vie for Women Of Philadelphia Suburbs.” April 10, 2008. 21 Associated Press Newswires, “Obama and Clinton press for youth vote in aging Pennsylvania,” 7 April 2008. 22 The Philadelphia Inquirer, “Pa. race may be a tale of two cities,” 11 April 2008. 23 Chicago Tribune, “In western Pa., Democrats find voters tough as steel,” 16 April 2008. 24 Associated Press, “Catholic vote critical for Dems in Pa.” Mar 26, 2008. 25 The Wall Street Journal, “Politics & Economics: Candidates Court Catholics.” 17 March 2008. 26 Associated Press, “Catholic vote critical for Dems in Pa.” Mar 26, 2008. 27 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “CLINTON TRIES TO MAINTAIN HOLD ON BIG RELIGIOUS BLOC,” 5 April 2008. 28 Associated Press, “Catholic vote critical for Dems in Pa.” Mar 26, 2008. 29 AP, “Pa. voter registration nears record.” April 8, 2008. 30 Philadelphia Inquirer, “Pa. Democrats register in record numbers for April primary.” April 1, 2008. 31 Associated Press Newswires, “Counties scramble to process voter registrations,” 17 April 2008. 32 Pennsylvania presidential primary preview, 2000. (2000). In Race for the presidency: Winning the 2000 nomination. Washington: CQ Press. Retrieved April 17, 2008, from CQ Electronic Library, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, http://library.cqpress.com/elections/race00-137-6699-383913. Document ID: race00-137-6699-383913. 33 Philadelphia Inquirer, “The last time a Pa. primary mattered.” Mar. 24, 2008. 34 Pennsylvania presidential primary preview, 2000. (2000). In Race for the presidency: Winning the 2000 nomination. Washington: CQ Press. Retrieved April 17, 2008, from CQ Electronic Library, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, http://library.cqpress.com/elections/race00-137-6699-383913. Document ID: race00-137-6699-383913. 35 Philadelphia Inquirer, “The last time a Pa. primary mattered.” Mar. 24, 2008.

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36 Pennsylvania presidential primary preview, 2000. (2000). In Race for the presidency: Winning the 2000 nomination. Washington: CQ Press. Retrieved April 17, 2008, from CQ Electronic Library, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, http://library.cqpress.com/elections/race00-137-6699-383913. Document ID: race00-137-6699-383913. 37 Pennsylvania presidential primary preview, 2000. (2000). In Race for the presidency: Winning the 2000 nomination. Washington: CQ Press. Retrieved April 17, 2008, from CQ Electronic Library, CQ Voting and Elections Collection, http://library.cqpress.com/elections/race00-137-6699-383913. Document ID: race00-137-6699-383913. 38 Associated Press Newswires, “Pennsylvania voters elect few women, blacks.” 31 March 2008. 39 Associated Press Newswires, “Gun rights, gun deaths divide Pa. voters,” 15 April 2008. 40 AP, “Philadelphia suburbs hold key to Pa. primary,” April 18, 2008. 41 Philadelphia Inquirer, “Candidates' showdown here tonight.” April 16, 2008. 42 The Philadelphia Inquirer, “TV a big winner in candidate advertising,” 17 April 2008. 43 St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Pennsylvania vote shapes up as union showdown,” 2 April 2008. 44 USA Today, “Groups push favored candidates across Pa.” 11 April 2008. 45 The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, “'Street money' imperils Obama support in Philly,” 12 April 2008. 46 The Philadelphia Daily News, “Word on the street: No election $,” 15 April 2008. 47 The Philadelphia Daily News, “Pennsylvania ready for yet another historic political moment,” 10 March 2008. 48 The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, “'Street money' imperils Obama support in Philly,” 12 April 2008.