oxford institute of ageing oxford institute of ageing developing individualised life tables bsps...

OXFORD INSTITUTE OF AGEING

Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of Ageing

Developing individualised life tables

BSPS Annual Conference12 September 2007

Martin Karlsson Les Mayhew Ben RickayzenOxford Institute of Ageing Cass Business School Cass Business SchoolUniversity Of Oxford City University City University


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingOutline

• Background: The importance of healthy life expectancy

• Recent trends in HLE• Objectives of research• Empirical strategy• Preliminary results• Application: Individualised life tables• Application: Potential gains in HLE and LE



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Demand, 65+Total DemandSupply

Background: Informal Care



Three hypotheses have been considered:

• Compression of morbidity (Fries)

• Expansion of morbidity (Gruenberg)

• Combination (Manton)

Recent Trends in HLEHowever, UK data are surprisingly

inconclusive:• Life expectancy free from any

disability has been slowly increasing.• Proportion of life spent free from any

disability has been roughly constant.• Severe-disability free life expectancy

has been increasing (ADL based definition)

• The proportion of life spent free from severe disability has been increasing.

• The severely-disabled life expectancy has fallen.


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingObjectives of Research

• To analyse the dynamics of health, labour market participation and cohabitation in the UK population

• To analyse trends in morbidity and mortality at the individual level

• To project future labour market participation, cohabitation and morbidity of subgroups of the UK population

• To analyse the individual effects of transitions between different employment, health and cohabitation states



DatasetWe use all available

waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004)

Independent variables include

• Age, sex and ethnicity• Educational

attainment• Time trends

Empirical StrategyEstimation Strategy: GHK• We estimate a system of

equations:– Survival– Employment Status– Cohabitation Status– Disability

• Estimation strategy includes correcting for– Autocorrelation– Random effects– Attrition (IPW)– State Dependence & Initial

Conditions


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingResults I: Employment

Variable Males Females Coefficient T Stat Coefficient T Stat

Constant -3.4513 -28.75 *** -3.6494 -32.21 *** Age 8.8999 23.53 *** 11.1474 26.55 *** Age2 -12.7080 -34.24 *** -14.6295 -33.12 *** University 0.3592 12.24 *** 0.3312 12.17 *** A Levels 0.1545 6.28 *** 0.1861 8.03 *** O Levels 0.1737 7.33 *** 0.1508 7.35 *** Year 0.6783 6.70 *** 0.1537 1.77 * Year2 -0.3626 -5.71 *** -0.0793 -1.47 Non-white -0.0607 -1.52 -0.1216 -3.15 *** Wt-1 2.1235 113.79 *** 2.1122 141.26 *** Ct-1 0.1623 5.96 *** -0.0852 -4.26 *** Ht-1 0.5065 19.19 *** 0.3638 16.28 ***


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingResults II: CohabitationVariable Males Females

Coefficient T Stat Coefficient T Stat Constant -2.5938 -25.84 *** -2.3203 -23.10 *** Age 3.1559 9.92 *** 2.0719 6.45 *** Age2 -3.5308 -11.35 *** -3.2182 -10.46 *** University 0.1651 5.79 *** 0.0535 1.72 * A Levels 0.0680 2.89 *** 0.0118 0.47 O Levels 0.0866 3.62 *** -0.0412 -1.83 * Year 0.0998 0.88 0.2768 2.58 ** Year2 -0.0253 -0.37 -0.1540 -2.36 ** Non-white 0.1707 4.35 *** -0.0544 -1.42 Wt-1 0.1617 4.12 *** 0.3229 9.23 *** Ct-1 3.0812 154.98 *** 3.1764 166.30 *** Ht-1 -0.0149 -0.49 0.1429 5.27 *** Wt -0.0277 -0.67 -0.2975 -7.66 ***


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingResults III: Disability

Variable Males Females Coefficient T Stat Coefficient T Stat

Constant -0.2781 -2.71 *** -0.7675 -9.82 *** Age -1.3014 -4.03 *** 1.9298 7.38 *** Age2 0.7406 2.49 ** -2.8512 -11.94 *** University 0.2723 9.44 *** 0.1481 5.64 *** A Levels 0.2097 9.38 *** 0.1716 8.22 *** O Levels 0.0850 3.83 *** 0.1320 7.51 *** Year -0.6348 -7.10 *** -0.4645 -6.38 *** Year2 0.2249 4.15 *** 0.0939 2.10 ** Non-white -0.1803 -4.99 *** -0.2757 -8.30 *** Wt-1 0.0896 2.48 ** 0.1218 4.47 *** Ct-1 -1.8255 -38.33 *** 1.9043 57.46 *** Ht-1 1.3146 67.49 *** 1.2248 79.66 *** Wt 0.4020 10.51 *** 0.1388 4.67 *** Ct 2.0931 43.83 *** -2.0342 -63.04 ***


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingApplication: Life Tables, Males

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)N EDU W C H LE WLE CLE HLE

12,969 1 1 1 1 33.5 15.9 19.2 25.92,890 1 1 0 1 31.3 14.7 14.5 25.0

370 1 0 0 1 32.2 7.7 9.5 24.524,158 2 1 1 1 31.0 13.3 16.4 23.03,360 2 1 0 1 29.0 12.4 12.0 22.5

370 3 0 0 0 23.4 1.1 1.8 6.51,210 2 0 1 0 24.1 1.1 7.2 6.21,210 3 0 1 0 24.2 1.1 7.2 5.51,210 4 0 0 0 20.7 0.6 1.1 5.01,680 4 0 1 0 21.6 0.6 5.8 4.2

100,000 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 29.9 11.7 14.5 20.5


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingApplication: Life Tables, Females(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)N EDU W C H LE WLE CLE HLE

12,690 2 1 1 1 38.9 12.1 12.7 28.01,470 2 0 1 1 39.9 4.0 7.3 27.88,360 1 1 1 1 38.7 13.6 14.0 27.71,550 1 0 1 1 39.7 5.3 8.4 27.34,260 3 0 1 1 39.6 3.7 6.8 27.23,410 4 0 1 0 29.7 1.1 4.6 7.8

310 2 0 0 0 28.0 1.6 1.3 7.7230 1 0 0 0 27.8 2.2 1.7 7.5540 3 0 0 0 27.4 1.4 1.1 7.0

1,320 4 0 0 0 25.6 0.9 0.9 5.5100,000 2.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 36.4 9.3 9.7 23.2


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingApplication: Potential Gains from Employment

Size SEX EDU C H Gap Gain Gap Gain95 0 1 1 0 6.1 6.3 10.6 9.7605 0 2 1 0 5.7 6.2 9.0 8.3605 0 3 1 0 5.5 5.9 9.1 8.3155 1 1 1 0 6.7 -1.1 8.3 7.6840 0 4 1 0 5.5 5.4 7.6 7.1

Average 0.6 3.0 0.7 0.6 3.3 0.6 7.9 4.075 1 1 0 1 -3.8 -3.5 6.6 0.1280 0 4 0 1 -0.8 -1.0 6.7 0.1375 0 2 0 1 -0.8 -1.8 7.0 -0.6235 0 3 0 1 -0.9 -2.0 7.0 -0.8185 0 1 0 1 -0.9 -4.4 7.0 -2.1

LE WLE


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingApplication: Potential Gains from Health

ImprovementSize SEX EDU C H Gap Gain Gap Gain115 1 1 0 0 8.0 9.2 3.6 10.7155 1 1 0 1 7.5 12.9 2.7 10.2425 1 2 0 1 7.3 13.0 2.1 9.4

1,005 1 3 0 1 7.3 13.0 2.0 9.2270 1 3 0 0 8.2 6.9 2.7 9.1

Average 0.6 3.0 0.5 0.8 2.5 3.4 2.4 1.41,025 0 3 1 1 1.2 2.5 3.2 -8.345 0 3 1 0 -5.4 -9.4 2.5 -8.6185 0 2 1 0 -5.4 -9.9 2.4 -8.7465 0 1 1 1 1.1 0.0 3.3 -9.695 0 1 1 0 -5.4 -10.0 2.3 -10.0

LE WLE


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingSummary of Findings

• Attrition, state dependence and initial conditions are all important factors to take into account when analysing population dynamics based on the BHPS.

• Cohabitation has very different effects for males and females

• Our model has good a fit and does a good job in replicating aggregate population figures, but estimates are shaky in small subgroups.


Oxford Institute of AgeingOxford Institute of AgeingSummary of Findings II

• There is considerable variation in the effects of employment and disability transitions for different subgroups of the population.

• Overall, disabled people seem to benefit much more from an employment status change than able-bodied individuals.

• No independent time trends observed in the data.



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