Fertility Trends Fertility Trends in Northern in Northern

IrelandIreland

Naomi O’Neill - NISRANaomi O’Neill - NISRA

2007 BSPS Conference – St 2007 BSPS Conference – St Andrew’sAndrew’s

Summary of PresentationSummary of Presentation

Birth registration processBirth registration process Trends in births and fertility levels in Trends in births and fertility levels in

Northern Ireland compared to other Northern Ireland compared to other countriescountries

The Eastern European migration The Eastern European migration effecteffect

ConclusionConclusion

Birth RegistrationBirth Registration

Must be registered with General Must be registered with General Register Office (GRO)Register Office (GRO) 26 Local Government District offices26 Local Government District offices Some maternity units in local hospitalSome maternity units in local hospital

42 days from birth to registration42 days from birth to registration Specified group of informants e.g. Specified group of informants e.g.

parents, grandparents etcparents, grandparents etc Child’s and parent’s details collected Child’s and parent’s details collected

at registrationat registration

Form of ParticularsForm of Particulars

Birth CertificateBirth Certificate

Newspaper Headlines

1717thth November, November, 2004 – 2004 –

Irish NewsIrish News

Newspaper Headlines

88thth April, 2005 – Tyrone Times April, 2005 – Tyrone Times

Newspaper Headlines

1010thth July 2007 – Irish News July 2007 – Irish News

Live Births Registered in Northern Ireland, 1922-2006P

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

1922 1928 1934 1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006

Year

Num

ber o

f Birth

s

1947

1964 - “Baby Boom”

2002

Total Period Fertility Rate in Northern Ireland, 1975-2006P

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Year

Tot

al F

ertilit

y R

ate

TPFR for UK Countries and ROI, 1975-2006P

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Year

Tot

al F

ertilit

y R

ate

England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Age of Mother, 1975-2006P

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Year

Num

ber o

f Birth

s

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Fertility Rates in Northern Ireland by Age of Mother, 1976-2006P

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Age of Mother

Fertili

ty R

ate

(per

1,00

0 fe

mal

es)

1976 1986 1996 2006

Fertility Rates by Country and Age of Mother, 2006P

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Age of Mother

Fer

tilit

y R

ate

(per

1,0

00 fe

mal

es)

Northern Ireland United Kingdom Republic of Ireland

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Marital Status, 1975-2006P

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Year

Per

cent

age

of A

ll Birth

s

Married Not Married Same address Different address Mother only

Live Births Outside Marriage by Country, 1975-2006P

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

Registration Year

Per

cent

age

of B

irth

s O

utsi

de M

arriag

e

Northern Ireland England & Wales Scotland Republic of Ireland

Social ClassSocial Class Individual social class is allocated to each childIndividual social class is allocated to each child

If father is present – allocated father’s social classIf father is present – allocated father’s social class Otherwise – allocated mother’s social classOtherwise – allocated mother’s social class

Change from SOC90 to SOC2000 in 2002 Change from SOC90 to SOC2000 in 2002 Post 2002 data can be categorised into two Post 2002 data can be categorised into two

groupsgroups High to MediumHigh to Medium – Higher managerial, lower – Higher managerial, lower

managerial, intermediate and small employers and managerial, intermediate and small employers and own account workersown account workers

Medium to LowMedium to Low – Lower supervisory, Semi-routine, – Lower supervisory, Semi-routine, Routine, never worked, long-term unemployed and Routine, never worked, long-term unemployed and not classifiednot classified

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Social Class, 2002-2006P

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Registration Year

Num

ber o

f Birth

s

High to Medium Medium to Low

Live Births Classified by Mother’s Country of Live Births Classified by Mother’s Country of Birth, 2001-2007Birth, 2001-2007PP

Mother’s Mother’s Country of Country of BirthBirth

Registration YearRegistration Year

20012001 20042004 20052005 20062006PP

2007 2007

Q1-Q2Q1-Q2PP

ALL BIRTHSALL BIRTHS 21,96221,962 22,31822,318 22,32822,328 23,27223,272 12,13812,138

Northern Northern IrelandIreland 18,99418,994 19,05919,059 19,03919,039 19,61119,611 10,16610,166

Rest of UKRest of UK 1,5531,553 1,4041,404 1,4601,460 1,4751,475 731731

Republic of Republic of IrelandIreland 724724 689689 706706 736736 375375

A8 CountriesA8 Countries 1212 3434 110110 390390 321321

All Other All Other Countries/UnknCountries/Unknownown

679679 1,1321,132 1,0131,013 1,0601,060 545545

P Provisional Data

Live Births Classified by Mother’s Country of Live Births Classified by Mother’s Country of Birth, 2001-2007Birth, 2001-2007P P (Percentages)(Percentages)

Mother’s Mother’s Country of Country of BirthBirth

Registration YearRegistration Year

20012001 20042004 20052005 20062006PP

2007 2007

Q1-Q2Q1-Q2PP

ALL BIRTHSALL BIRTHS 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0

Northern Northern IrelandIreland 86.586.5 85.485.4 85.385.3 84.384.3 83.883.8

Rest of UKRest of UK 7.17.1 6.36.3 6.56.5 6.36.3 6.06.0

Republic of Republic of IrelandIreland 3.33.3 3.13.1 3.23.2 3.23.2 3.13.1

A8 CountriesA8 Countries 0.10.1 0.20.2 0.50.5 1.71.7 2.62.6

All Other All Other Countries/UnknCountries/Unknownown

3.13.1 5.15.1 4.54.5 4.64.6 4.54.5

P Provisional Data

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Mother and Father's Country of

Birth, 2006P

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NI Rest of UK ROI A8 Other

Mother's Country of Birth

Per

cent

age

of F

athe

r's Fro

m S

ame

Cou

ntry

Gro

up a

s M

othe

r

Same as MCOB Different to MCOB

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Mother's Country of Birth and

Age, 2006P

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Under 15 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+

Age of Mother

Per

cent

age

of A

ll Birth

s

NI Rest of UK ROI A8 Other

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Marital Status and Mother's

Country of Birth, 2006P

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NI Rest of UK ROI A8 Other

Mother's Country of Birth

Per

centa

ge o

f All

Birth

s

Inside Marriage Outside Marriage

Live Births in Northern Ireland by Mother's Country of Birth and

Social Class, 2006P

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NI Rest of UK ROI A8 Other

Mother's Country of Birth

Perc

enta

ge o

f all

Birt

hs

High to Medium Medium to Low

ConclusionConclusion

Cultural Changes have Effected Birth Cultural Changes have Effected Birth TrendsTrends Better acceptability of births outside marriageBetter acceptability of births outside marriage Mothers waiting later to have childrenMothers waiting later to have children

• More women pursuing careersMore women pursuing careers• More widespread availability of fertility treatmentsMore widespread availability of fertility treatments

Increased number of migrantsIncreased number of migrants• Move primarily for employment in manual jobs Move primarily for employment in manual jobs

however have children while living in Northern however have children while living in Northern Ireland Ireland

• Have children at a younger age than the average Have children at a younger age than the average Northern Irish motherNorthern Irish mother

Data AvailableData Available

Provisional Monthly DataProvisional Monthly Data Published one month in arrearsPublished one month in arrears

Provisional Quarterly DataProvisional Quarterly Data Published one quarter in arrearsPublished one quarter in arrears

Provisional Annual DataProvisional Annual Data Published in March of the following yearPublished in March of the following year

Finalised Annual DataFinalised Annual Data Published in November of the following yearPublished in November of the following year

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