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OVERVIEW on CLIMATE &
TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES
“Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront
Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of
Climate Change”
Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City
23 November 2009
RUSY G. ABASTILLASClimatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA
Atmospheric
Geophysical
Services
Administration
Philippine
Astronomical
The nation’s
meteorological service
and public weather
service provider
58 Synoptic Stations
23 Agromet Stations
4 Radiosonde Stns.
5 Meteorological
Satellite Receiving
Facilities
10 Doppler radars
(2 years from now)
NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS
…Characterized by humid equatorial
or tropical maritime
The Philippine Climate
Gen San
DipologMean annual rr=2379.3
Infanta =3967.3
Hinatuan =4168.3
Type 1 Climate:
Two pronounced seasons: dry from
November to April, wet during the rest
of the year.Monthly Rainfall of Port Area, Manila (Type I)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Rainf
all (m
m)
Climate Type I
Type 2 Climate:
No dry season with a pronounced
maximum rainfall from November to
January.Monthly Rainfall of Legaspi City (Type II)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Climate Type II
Type 3 Climate:
Seasons not very pronounced,
relatively dry from November to April
and wet during the rest of the year.Monthly Rainfall of Tuguegarao, Cag. (Type III)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Climate Type III
Type 4 Climate:
Rainfall more or less evenly
distributed throughout the year.
Monthly Rainfall of Tagbilaran City, Bohol (Type IV)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Rainf
all (m
m)
Climate Type IV
Baguio City
Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Ra
infa
ll in
mm
Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of
Baguio City (1971-2000)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Month
Rain
fall in
mm
TMax TMin TMean
Annual mean temperature of Baguio City (1971-2005)
y = 0.0071x + 19.358
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Te
mp
in
°C
annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)
• geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastal plains
Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines
• semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents
• air streams - southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep
- northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar
- easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period
• ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea
• linear systems - ITCZ- cold front- easterly waves
• tropical cyclones
• ENSO phenomenon• Devastating impacts could be mitigated
through clear understanding of the
complex mechanisms and dev’t of
effective forecast tools.
• influenced by complex
interactions
• threatened by ECEs
• rainfall variability
• various sectors affected
SOUTHWEST
MONSOON
(HABAGAT)
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)
L
L L
L
INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE
ZONE (ITCZ)
TROPICAL
CYCLONE
Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines
ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END)
AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING
SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO
LL
LL
ITCZ
ITCZ
ITCZ
ITCZ
Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the PhilippinesAVERAGE RAINFALL
APRIL-SEPTEMBER
(1951-2000)
AVERAGE RAINFALL
OCTOBER-MARCH
(1951-2000)First
semestral
Second
semestral
Cold air from
Siberia
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines
Period: 1948-2005
*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
Northern Luzon is most
frequently hit by tropical
cyclones followed by
Catanduanes and Northern
Samar and least in the
Mindanao area.
Monthly Average Frequency of Tropical Cyclone
in the PAR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
M o n t h
No
. o
f T
rop
ica
l C
yc
lon
es
Climate Variability /ENSO
IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
Legend:
Severe drought impacts
Drought impacts with major losses
Moderate drought impacts
Near normal to above normal condition
Way above normal condition
Potential for flood damage
Severe flood damage
RED colored years are EL NINOyears, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
TRENDS…
Temperature
Rainfall
Tropical Cyclones
An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006
Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures
almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
Significant
increase in the
frequency of
hot days
Significant
increase in the
frequency of
warm nights
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm nights).
Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days).
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights.
Significant
decrease in
the number
of cold days
Significant decrease in the number of cool nights
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
• Significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.
(Cool days). (Cold nights).
Trend in Annual Total
Rainfall* (1961 – 2003)
• Decreases in the top
northern part of
Luzon and Southern
Luzon.
• Increases in the Bicol
Region (except Daet),
Visayas and
Mindanao
• Findings not
statistically
significant
Total
Annual
Rainfall
*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean
y = -0.0104x + 19.755
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year
Freq
uen
cy o
f tr
op
ical
Cyclo
nes
Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)
TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES
0
50
100
150
200
250
Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Nu
mb
er 51-80
61-90
71-00
LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO
1951-8
0
1961-9
0
1971-0
0
Year Normal Years
La Niña
Years
El Niño
Years
JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38
AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38
JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85
OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56
Total 20.96 19.76 16.17
Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La
Niña Years
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS (QTR3) OND (QTR4)
TC
Fre
qu
en
cy
Normal Years La Niña Years El Niño Years
Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with
the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
NAIA 429PortArea 425
Science Garden 430Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222Tuguegaro 233Baguio City 328
Dagupan 325Iba, Zambales 324Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Ambulong 432Calapan 431
Puerto Princesa 618Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132Basco Synop 135
Calayan 133Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330Casiguran 336
Alabat 435Infanta 434
Romblon 536
Masbate 543Daet 440
Legaspi 444Virac Synop 446Virac Radar 447Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarman 546Catbalogan 548
Tacloban City 550Dumaguete 642
Mactan 646Maasin 648
Surigao City 653Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741Lumbia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748Malaybalay 751
Davao 753Zamboanga 836
Station Names
% of Rainfall
% Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems
HIGHLIGHTS:
The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones: flooding, high winds, storm surges and landslides.
Increasing trend in annual mean temperature
No trend in rainfall pattern
No trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones
RECENT DEVASTATING TROPICAL
CYCLONES
1. Ondoy (Ketsana)
2. Pepeng (Parma)
P A R LINE
P A R LINE
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
P
A
R
L
I
N
E
On September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfallat the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.
TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons since
the start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours of
extremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that
brought heavy flooding.
PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm
(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recorded
for six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall
in 1967.
SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).
24-Hr Rainfall at Selected Stations
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE
GARDEN
TANAY
Station Name
Rain
fall A
mt
in m
m.
24-Hr Rainfall during the Passage of TS “Ondoy”
(Sept. 24-27, 2009)
STATION NAME 24 25 26 27
IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0
PORT AREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0
SUBIC BAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0
SANGLEY POINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0
SCIENCE GARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0
AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0
TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0
24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected
Stations affected by TS "Ondoy"
0.0100.0
200.0300.0
400.0500.0
600.0
IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE
GARDEN
SANGLEY
POINT
AMBULONG
Stations
Rain
fall
in
mm
24-hr RR Normal Sept
Ondoy’s Fury
“Ondoy’s Fury”
TY PEPENG (Parma) Sept.30-Oct.10
Rainfall Associated w/ TC Passage (Pepeng)
Cumulative Rainfall (Oct. 1- 10, 2009) vs October Normal
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
ITBAYAT
BASCO
VIGAN
LAOAG
APARRI
TUGUEGARAO
ECHAGUEIB
A
DAGUPANBSU
BAGUIO
MUÑOZ
CABANATUAN
Stations
RR
in m
m.
TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT
Cumulative RR (Oct. 1-10, 2009) vs. October Normal RR
STATIONS TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT Highest Day
ITBAYAT 303.6 478.7 678.2 8-Jun-1981 106.1 6-Oct-09
BASCO 281.3 429.2 616.4 27-Oct-1991 95.0 7-Oct-09
VIGAN 1005.3 154.3 594.1 18-Jul-1920 417.3 4-Oct-09
LAOAG 843.4 143.6 564.2 4-Sep-1913 402.6 4-Oct-09
APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09
TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09
ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09
IBA 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09
DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09
BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09
BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09
MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09
CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09
Extreme Rainfall (24-hr)
T
Y
P
e
p
e
n
g
Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decadal Highest 24-hr
ITBAYAT 0.2 8.0 67.9 25.2 16.1 106.1 12.0 48.0 19.3 0.8 303.6 106.1
BASCO 0.0 14.2 31.6 0.8 8.7 69.6 95.0 50.2 11.0 0.2 281.3 95.0
VIGAN 0.0 31.7 168.9 417.3 126.2 75.4 68.6 111.8 5.4 0.0 1005.3 417.3
LAOAG CITY 0.0 10.7 90.6 402.6 197.3 47.5 60.0 33.0 1.7 0.0 843.4 402.6
APARRI 0.0 34.0 154.5 0.0 8.0 35.1 82.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 338.6 154.5
TUGUEGARAO 0.0 90.3 188.7 0.0 4.8 23.5 129.7 71.5 0.0 0.0 508.5 188.7
ECHAGUE 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 94.0 111.9 0.0 238.2 111.9
IBA T 52.6 99.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 19.7 47.4 13.6 0.0 236.7 99.8
DAGUPAN CITY T 25.5 159.5 8.0 T 36.2 52.0 443.5 35.0 0.0 759.7 443.5
BSU 2.1 23.7 410.7 72.9 2.2 471.8 346.9 761.8 77.1 2169.2 761.8
BAGUIO CITY 0.4 20.0 531.0 38.2 4.6 260.0 276.0 685.0 61.3 0.0 1876.5 685.0
MUÑOZ 0.2 18.5 0.0 0.5 10.7 63.8 208.0 0.4 0.0 302.1 208.0
CABANATUAN CITY 20.0 24.8 65.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 54.8 96.2 2.0 0.0 267.5 96.2
Daily RR at Selected Stations in Luzon (Oct. 1-10, 2009)
“Pepeng’s Fury”
Thank
You!!!