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Graciano P Yumul JrGraciano P. Yumul, Jr.Monte Oro Resources and Energy, Inc.

© Rushurgent Working Group All rights reserved

Present the effects and impacts of

Objective

Present the effects and impacts of a changing climate to the world, the country and the mineral industry


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• Theoretical basis

Flow of talk

• Global happenings

• Country realities

• Industry scenes



Flow of talk



• Industry scenes


3

Latest information

Source: Sherwood, 2011

Updating the embers

Source: Schneider, 2009

4

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071

Temperature increase of 2°C, 4°C and 7°C are appearing in

the horizon


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Global warming higher ocean

water temperatures increased

Effects of global warming

water temperatures increased

hurricane intensities increased

wind speeds higher wave heights

Komar and Allan, 2007

14.0%

Direct economic losses as share of income

250

Fatalities per event

Impacts in low income countries

2 0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Dire

ct e

cono

mic

loss

es/G

NI

50

100

150

200

Fat

alit

ies/

even

t

0.0%

2.0%

Low income Middle income High income

Per capita income country groups

D

0

Low income Middle income High income

Per capita income country groups

Source: Munich Re, 2005

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• A place can be hazardous, but not necessarily risky

Hazard, Risk & Disaster

y

• There can be risk, but not necessarily disastrous

• Minimize factors (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) involved



Flow of talk



• Industry scenes


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July 2012 flooding in Japan

blackholezoo.com

tradenewswire.net

www.armageddononline.org/

July 2012 flooding in ChinaBeijing

bbc.co.uk

Dongzing, Sichuan Province

Minxian, Gansu Province

China Daily / Reuters

www.presstv.ir/

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July 2012 flooding in Russia

thearticlediary.com/news/flood-in-southern-russia/

www.globalpost.com

www.channelstv.com/home/2012/07/07/

July 2012 TY Vicente in Hong Kong

www.vosizneias.com/news/photos/view/455595068

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world‐asia‐china‐18967604

www.vosizneias.com/news/photos/view/345622004

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July 2011 flooding in India

newshopper.sulekha.com/india-monsoon-flooding_photo_1914033.htm

www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-30/flooding-hits-mumbai/2861496

July 2011 flooding in Thailand

www.nydailynews.com/news/world/thailand-worst-flooding-decades-gallery-1.963452

jpgreenword.wordpress.com/tag/thailand

www.123rf.com

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July 2010 flooding in Pakistan

www.ktravula.com

nytimes.com

www.frugal-cafe.com/public_html/frugal-blog/frugal-cafe-blogzone/

August 2009 TY Morakot in Taiwan

www.telegraph.co.uk

www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/08/typhoon_morakot.html

feww.wordpress.com/2009/08/11

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May 2008 TY Nargis in Myanmar

sosdrs.wordpress.com/2009/11/29/cyclone-nargis-9-ctf-thailand-in-myanmar-burma/

www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2008/05/05/world/0505-MYANMAR_4.html

www.nowpublic.com/environment/effect-cyclone-nargis-myanmar-2008

2012 Drought in the US

www.speakezforums.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=3486

www.thestar.com/news/world/article/

droughtmonitor.unl.edu

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2012 Drought in India

eksparsh.wordpress.com/tag/india/

www.downtoearth.org.in/content/el-nino-may-disrupt-monsoons

www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/

2012 Drought in South Korea

news.nationalpost.com/

www.voanews.com/content/korean_peninsula_drought_water_shortages/1252952.html

news.nationalpost.com/

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Immediate effects

• Slowed manufacturing sector

• Price increase in agriculture

• Limited supplies

• Political fall-out


Natural disasters occurrence by first Administrative level boundaries (1975-2004)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA CRED International Disaster Database

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Natural disasters reported (1900-2010)


Natural disaster summary (1900-2010)


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Immediate recognitions

• Population up, resources down

• Knowingly lives in harm’s way

• Natural hazards, human disasters

• Whose responsibility?


Changing weather patterns?

• CNN effect

• Technology upgrades

• Natural variability

• Climate change


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Flow of talk



• Industry scenes


Weather systems in the PH

Yumul et al., 2008

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July 2012 TY Ferdie in the Philippines

Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao

Metro Manila

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8278818.stm

Metro Manila

newsinfo.inquirer.net/212165/

article.wn.com/view/2012/07/21/

July 2012 TY Gener in the PhilippinesNavotas, Manila

Marikina River

Meycauayan, Bulacan

www.theborneopost.com

newsinfo.inquirer.net

newsinfo.inquirer.net

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2011 Disastrous weather eventsBebeng Juaning

Albay Prov. Govt., 2011

Pedring Quiel

nodeju.com

www.pinoyambisyoso.com newsinfo.inquirer.net

TY Pedring

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December 2011 in Iligan City


2010 drought and flooding in the PhilippinesAngat Dam

Basyang

© RWG All rights reserved © RWG All rights reserved

www.pinoyhalo.com www.ppeso.com

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2009 Ondoy and Pepeng in the PhilippinesOndoy

Pepeng


Natural common denominators

Steep slopes

Ri d River meanders

High water table

Too much rainwater

Valleys and flood plains


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Natural common denominators Faulted areas

Super saturated soils and clays Super-saturated soils and clays

Storm surge, swells,

neap tides

Both forested and

deforested areas


Common denominators: man-made Natural catch basins: Alterations made

Constricted water ways: water hyacinthy y

Narrowed water channels: Informal settlers

Abandoned channels & sandbars: Built-up areas


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Common denominators: man-made Risk immune: marginal miners

Acceptance strategy: Fatalistic approachp gy pp

“Denial syndrome”: Mindanao is not hit

Faulty early warning system: If there is one


Damages and losses (1984-2009)

Source: DOST- PAGASA, 2010

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Changing weather patterns: For real?

• Tropical cyclones and monsoons

• Recurrence periods

• Vulnerability as a predictive

concept?


30-year mean number of tropical cyclones in the Philippines

20.0

20.5

es

y pp

19.0

19.5

Num

ber of Tropical Cyclon

e

1951‐1980 1961‐1990 1971‐2000 2081‐2010

19.8 20.2 19.5 18.8

18.0

18.5

30 yearsMean

No. of T.C.

1981-2010

Source: DOST-PAGASA

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Rainfall frequency in the Philippines


August 2012 SW monsoon + HaikuiCainta Malabon

Marikina Rodriguez

ph.news.yahoo.com

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August 2012 SW monsoon + Haikui

ph.news.yahoo.com

ENSO lag time


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Highlights

• Frequency ↓; Duration (Same); Intensity ↑

• Rainfall intensity ↑Rainfall intensity ↑

• Temperature ↑

• Cool days ↓; Warm days ↑

200

250

lones

Number of Landfalling TC's

Numberof non‐LandfallingTC's

17 13 9 1134

48

126 130111

7144 3610 6 9 18

30

46

80 6777

88

87

47

0

50

100

150

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Numb

er of

Tropic

alCycl Number of non Landfalling TC s

Monthly

Mean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4

Source: DOST- PAGASA

Changing weather patterns: Climate change

• Natural climate variability

• Anthropogenic global warming


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Flow of talk



• Industry scenes


Modern volcanic system


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Modern geothermal systems

napocor.gov.ph; ibalon.wordpress.com; energy.com.ph

Ancient hydrothermal systems


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Geology of Rapu-Rapu

Yumul et al., 2006

Geology of Rapu-Rapu

Lava flow deposit overlain by debris flow deposits Contact between chlorite schist and quartz chlorite schist

Quartzofeldspathic schist at Biruwasan (looking SE) Quartz schist intercalated with quartz chlorite schist


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Geo-meteorological characters

• Faults, joints and fractures

• Ancient volcanic deposits

• Thick soil cover

• Clay alterations

• Much water• Much water


Yumul et al., 2008

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Yumul et al., 2010

Yumul et al., 2012

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• Knowing what to expect can phelp in making preparations.

• Eastern versus Central ENSO

Yumul et al., 2010

Normal weatherweather events can bring anomalous

t famounts of rain.

Yumul et al., 2010

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Disasters occur whetherwhether changes in climate and weather patterns are due to

Yumul et al., 2010

natural variability or man-made.

Rapu-Rapu spill

greenpeace.org saverapurapu.blogspot.com

saverapurapu.blogspot.comadnu.edu.ph

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Benguet landslide and flooding

article.wn.com wn.com

sulekha.com gmanetwork.com

Compostela landslide

article.wn.comphotoblog.nbcnews.com

www.allvoices.com businessmirror.com.ph

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Apex landslide and flooding


Implications

• Varying hydrological patterns are noted

• Changing rain patterns are evident


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Implications• Quarry operations get affected

• Water sensitive ore resources (e g nickel)• Water-sensitive ore resources (e.g. nickel) susceptible to changing weather

• Mine development (e.g. infrastructures) must consider climate patterns


Implications• Weather and climate data critical

• Mine development should include weatherMine development should include weather information collection scheme

• Alternate shipping routes must be considered

O f t d l• Occurrences of extreme and regular weather events must be monitored


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What to do? Mine safety

• Initiate short, medium and long term forecasts

• Know local weather and climate settings

• Coordinate with host communities

• Communicate and warn


What to do? Mine personnel

• Check working conditions and space

• Teach, train and practice

• Be responsible

• Communicate


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What to do? Mine town• Identify hazards,

determine vulnerabilities

• Increase coping capacities

• Understand uncertainties

• Avoid individual amnesia and institutional inertia


Summary• Increasing data: Anthropogenic

causes > natural variability.

• The last few years show meteorological abnormalities.

• New weather normals have tremendous implications in the minerals industry.minerals industry.

• Responsible mining must factor this reality.


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