Overview of the Iran DealPublished July 22, 2015

National Journal Presentation Credits

Producers: Alexander Perry and Christine YanDirector: Afzal Bari

Deal Places Restricts Iran’s Nuclear Program, Hindering its Immediate Path to a Nuclear Weapon

Uranium ore

~20,000 centrifuges

6,104 centrifuges

10,000 kg uranium20% enriched

300 kg uranium3.67%

enriched

AFTER DEALCURRENT STATE

Material for 8-10 bombsTime to create one bomb:

2-3 months

Not enough material for one bomb

Time to create one bomb: 1 year

Key Aspects of the Iran Deal:

•What changes will be made to Iran’s nuclear program? Iran is still permitted to produce a small stock of uranium enriched at levels that are too low to create a bomb. Iran must also significantly reduce the number of centrifuges. •Can Iran still make a bomb? If it abides by the deal, no, for at least a decade. While no new facilities are allowed to be built, Iran is not required to dismantle its existing nuclear structure and are permitted to continue limited research and development.•Will nuclear inspectors have access to all facilities? There will be regular inspections of both Iranian nuclear facilities and the nuclear supply chain that supports the program. In order to inspect other suspicious sites, evidence must be presented to justify such an inspection.•When will sanctions lift? The European Union has committed to lift sanctions once Iran complies with the principal requirements in the deal.•How long will the deal last? The deal limits the number of Iran’s centrifuges for 10 years and its enrichment for 15 years. Caps on research and development loosen in about 10 years, but some restrictions will remain for up to 25 years. Iran is permanently bound to the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Sources: National Journal Research; New York Times, “The Iran Deal in 200 Words”; New York Times, “The Iran Nuclear Deal – A Simple Guide”; The White House “The Historic Deal that Will Prevent Iran from Acquiring a Nuclear Weapon”; Washington Post, “Iran deal leaves US with tough questions”

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Critics of the Iran Deal Believe the US Gave Too MuchIran Deal Talking Points from Each Side

Proponents of Deal Opponents of Deal

Extent of Restrictions on Iran’s Nuclear Program

Deal keeps Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon for at least 10 years•Under the deal, Iran can’t produce enough material for a weapon for at least 10 years•Without the deal, Iran could acquire enough material for a bomb in about 2-3 months

The deal puts Iran on a path where it can gain a nuclear weapon after 10 years•The 10 year delay is too short in a region known for decades of conflict•The delay would be moot if Iran cheats

Sanctions Relief Without a deal, sanctions fall apart•The international sanctions regime relies on continued support from Russia and China, who are eager to do business with Iran

Lifting sanctions provides Iran, a known sponsor of terrorism, with access to more resources•The infusion of financial and military strength to Iran is immediate and permanent

Regional Impact While the deal may anger some regional allies, it increases security for the region•Reducing the “breakout” time for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon enhances regional security

The deal will spark a regional nuclear arms race•An increase in Iranian strength could have destabilizing effects in the Middle East and angers regional allies, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia•If other countries think Iran will develop nuclear arms, then they will be spurred to do the same

Reliance upon Iran’s Cooperation

The deal depends upon a robust system of monitoring, inspection and verification •The monitoring regime does not depend on Iran’s trustworthiness or whether it will change behavior

The deal’s inspection regime falls short•The inspections are not ‘anytime, anywhere’ •Iran previously deceived the IAEA and refuses to reveal the military aspects of its nuclear program

Bottom Line The White House, along with a majority of the world community, argues this deal offers a more lasting solution to the Iran problem while avoiding other conflict•The only alternatives continue to allow Iran’s nuclear program to be on the doorstep of obtaining a nuclear weapon or involve military conflict

This deal paves way for Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb and receive money for terrorism•Instead of punishing Iran for its history of financing terrorism and deceptive nuclear activity, the US has made too many concessions by lifting the economic sanctions and placing only temporary restrictions on the country’s nuclear program.

Sources: National Journal Research; TheHill.com “Obama’s Five Big Arguments on Iran Deal”; The Washington Post “Israeli Ambassador: The Four Major Problems with the Iran Deal”; WhiteHouse.gov “The Historic Deal that Will Prevent Iran from Acquiring a Nuclear Weapon”

Congress is Unlikely to Kill Iran Nuclear Deal

Analysis•Congress has 60 days to disapprove Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, but in order to kill the deal, the resolution would have to pass with two-thirds of both the House and Senate to overcome the President’s promised veto (i.e. 290 votes in the House, 67 votes in the Senate)•Since Hillary Clinton has publicly praised Obama’s Iran Deal, it is unlikely that more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegation in Congress would go against the President and the current 2016 Democratic frontrunner, unless party leaders, such as Sen. Chuck Schumer and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, express disapproval.•On Monday June 20, both the United Nations Security Council and the European Union signed off on the nuclear accord, which upset US lawmakers in both parties

Necessary Votes for Disapproval Resolution to pass and Overturn President’s Veto

67 Votes Needed to Overturn a Presidential Veto

290 Votes Needed to Overturn a Presidential Veto

SenateHouse

Source: Vox, “How Congress could kill the Iran deal, and why it probably won’t,” July 14, 2015.

Assuming all 246 Republicans in the House vote to disapprove the deal, opponents would need to convince 44 Democrats to vote against the deal.

Assuming all 54 Republicans in the Senate vote to disapprove the deal, opponents would need to convince 13 Democrats* to vote against the deal.

*Includes Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT)