Overview of the global market in transnational

education

8th QS-APPLE Annual Conference 15 November 2012

Professor Nigel Healey Pro-Vice-Chancellor (International)

Nottingham Trent University

Overview

• What is transnational education?

• Trends in transnational education

• Drivers of transnational education

• The challenges ahead for transnational education

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What is transnational education?

• ―Any teaching or learning activity in which the students are in a

different country to that in which the institutional providing the

education is based‖ (Global Alliance for Transnational Education,

1997)

• ―all types of higher education study programmes, sets of study

courses, or educational services (including those of distance

education) in which the learners are located in a country different

from the one where the awarding institution is based‖ (Council of

Europe, 2002)

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General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and international trade in services

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Mode 1 — Cross border supply

From the territory of one Member into the territory of any other Member

Mode 2 — Consumption abroad

In the territory of one Member to the service consumer of any other Member

Mode 3 — Commercial presence

By a service supplier of one Member, through commercial presence, in the territory of any other Member

Mode 4 — Presence of natural persons

By a service supplier of one Member, through the presence of natural persons of a Member in the territory of any other Member

General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and transnational education

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Mode 1 — Cross border supply

Programme mobility: distance or on-line education

Mode 2 — Consumption abroad

Student mobility: export education

Mode 3 — Commercial presence

Institutional mobility: franchise/ validated partner and International Branch Campuses

Mode 4 — Presence of natural persons

Staff mobility: fly-in/fly-out programmes

Blurring and overlap in transnational education

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Mode 1 — Programme mobility

Mode 4 — Staff mobility

Mode 3 — Institutional mobility

Mode 2 — Student mobility

2+1

IBC

Blended

How big is transnational education?

• Host countries typically require foreign providers to register

and report enrolments

• This only gives a partial view of the global market

• Few countries require reporting of transnational activities by

their own universities

• The UK and Australia both require reporting by their

universities, and quality assure their foreign activities

• Use UK data to provide an insight into the scale of the market

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Mode 2: Students studying on campus at English HEIs (2010/11)

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Level of provision

Postgraduate Undergraduate Total

UK 316,265 1,429,795 1,746,065

Other EU 40,855 61,845 102,700

Non-EU 134,270 114,185 248,455

Total 491,395 1,605,825 2,097,215

Source: HESA

Modes 1, 3 and 4: Students studying wholly overseas at UK HEIs (2010/11)

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Level of provision

Post-

graduate

First

degree

Other

UG Total

Students registered at a

UK HEI

74,135 127,030 10,745 212,046

Students studying for an

award of a UK HEI

14,660 274,970 2,055 291,745

Total 88,795 402,000 12,800 503,795

Source: HESA

Total non-UK on campus = 351,155

Transnational education by type of delivery

19 November 2012 10 Source: HESA/SIEM

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305

Distance, flexible and distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065

Other students registered at HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630

Overseas partner organisation 29,240 197,185 207,790 291,575

Other students studying overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125

Total 196,670 388,045 408,595 503,700

Caveat 1: the Oxford Brookes effect

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2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Oxford Brookes University

870 163,295 162,045 239,945

Source: HESA

What do I need to do to be awarded the BSc degree at Oxford Brookes? To be awarded the BSc (Hons) in Applied Accounting you must:

• be registered with Oxford Brookes University ie have opted in to the

BSc degree scheme before passing any of the three ACCA

Fundamentals papers, F7, F8 and F9

• successfully complete all nine Fundamentals level papers

• complete the ACCA Professional Ethics module

• complete and pass the Oxford Brookes University Research and

Analysis Project

• To submit the Research and Analysis Project in the May and

November submission periods, please refer to RAP submission dates.

• The degree must be completed within 10 years of your initial

registration onto ACCA's professional qualification.

19 November 2012 12 Source: http://www.accaglobal.com/en/help/oxford-brookes.html

So how big is transnational education for the UK without Oxford Brookes?

19 November 2012 13 Source: HESA/SIEM

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305

Distance, flexible and distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065

Other students registered at HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630

Overseas partner organisation 28,370 33,890 45,745 51,630

Other students studying overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125

Total 195,800 224,750 246,550 263,755

Caveat 2

• ―the Aggregate offshore record should be collected in respect of

students studying (to date) wholly outside the UK who are either

registered with the reporting institution or who are studying for an

award of the reporting institution‖

http://www.hesa.ac.uk/component/option,com_studrec/task,show_file/Itemid,233/mnl,11052/href,coverage.html/

• The data do not include students in validated centres studying for

UK awards, unless they are registered as students

19 November 2012 14 Source: HESA

Transnational education as government policy

• TNE is one of the ―great growth industries of the future‖

• ―increasingly, emerging economies want to educate their

students at home, and the UK – a global pioneer in

developing educational facilities – is well placed to help…We

not only have strengths in teaching and research but in

design and construction of universities, mobilising finance,

curriculum development, qualification accreditation and

quality assurance‖

(David Willetts, UK Minister for Universities and Science,

April 2012)

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The drivers of demand for transnational education –Per capita GDP:

•Ability to pay

•Need for education in an advanced knowledge economy

–Population in 18-30 age group

–Capacity and quality of domestic higher education

–TNE is mainly ‗demand-absorbing‘

–TNE is presently mostly in Asia

•Fastest economic growth

•Rapid population growth

•Domestic higher education capacity has lagged demand growth and been lower quality than in OECD

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Projected per capita GDP (US$ PPP at 2006 prices)

19 November 2012 17 Source: PWC, The world in 2050 - Beyond the BRICs: a broader look at emerging market growth prospects

Continuing population growth: five of the world‘s seven most populous countries are in Asia

19 November 2012 18 Source: United Nations Population Fund

By 2020, 50% of the world‘s 18-22 year olds will be from four Asian countries

19 November 2012 19 Source: United Nations Population Fund

But changing shape of the population pyramid for Asia: 1990 (left) vs 2010

19 November 2012 20 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

A closer look at the university age demographics

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Capacity and quality of domestic higher education

• Participation rates rising to OECD levels (helped by

demographic slowdown in 18-22 year olds)

• Policy focus shifting from quantity to quality: advent of new

quality assurance regimes

• Explicit policies to internationalise universities

• Governments concentrating funding for research on tier of

elite universities to create ―world-class‖ universities

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Gross tertiary enrolment rates*

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Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics

* Includes international students

Quality Assurance

Asian rankings of strength of quality assurance regime

Score/10

1 Hong Kong 7.2

2 China 5.6

3= Indonesia 5.0

3= Malaysia 5.0

5 South Korea 3.9

6 Thailand 3.3

7 Singapore 2.8

8 Japan 2.2

9 Vietnam 0.6

Source: British Council

Asian vs world quality assurance

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Rankings of strength of quality assurance regime Score/10

1 Australia 9.4

2 Germany 8.9

3 UK 8.3

4 France 7.8

=5 Hong Kong 7.2

=5 Netherlands 7.2

7 China 5.6

=8 Indonesia 5.0

=8 Malaysia 5.0

=8 US 5.0

11 Russia 4.4

12 South Korea 3.9

=13 Thailand 3.3

=13 UAE 3.3

=15 Nigeria 2.8

=15 Singapore 2.8

Source: British Council

Internationalising Asian higher education

• Motives for internationalisation:

– Development aid (Colombo Plan)

– Project language and culture (soft diplomacy)

– Export education (commercial)

– Attract skilled immigrants

– Strengthen teaching and research on campus through the presence of foreign scholars

• All main Asian countries have ambitious targets to attract

international students to their domestic higher education

systems

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Building world-class universities (1)

• China

– 2,358 universities

– 22.3m undergraduates, 1.5m postgraduates (MoE, 2011/12)

• Project 211: started 1995

– 113 universities

– Train 80% PhDs, 66% PGT, 50% of international students, host 96% of research laboratories

• Project 985: started 1998

– Chinese ―Ivy League‖

– Initially C9 League, now 39 universities

• Goals:

– To make Peking and Tsinghua ―top university‖

– To make 8 universities ―world-class‖

– To make remaining 29 universities ―well-known internationally‖

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Building world-class universities (2)

• Korea

– World Class University‘ (WCU) project launched in 2008

– Government-funded to bring international scholars to Korea and set up new programmes

– KoreaBrain21 to create 10 world class, research-oriented universities

• Thailand

– Second 15-Year Long Range Plan on Higher Education

– Focus resources on nine national research universities

• Japan

– A Policy for the Structural Reform of Universities, 2002: 21st Century Centres of Excellence Programme

– Now Global COE Programme: targeted support to the creation of world-standard research and education bases (centres of excellence)

– Based on discipline areas, not whole universities

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Building world-class universities (3)

• Malaysia

– National Higher Education Strategic Plan 2011-15

– 6 Research Universities

– 20 world class Centres of Excellence (CoE)

– One or two APEX Universities among existing IHEs

– Three IHEs among the top 100 and one in the top 50 of world renowned universities

• Singapore

– Has bilateral system of polytechnics/institutes of technical education vs four public universities

– Research funding concentrates on NUS and NTU

– Uses foreign universities to absorb additional demand for places

• Taiwan

– Development Plan for World-Class Universities and Research Centers of Excellence

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Conclusions (1)

• Transnational education is big business for…

• …but the data are still not reliable

• To date, transnational education has been mainly focused on

Asia, driven by:

– High economic growth

– Rapid population growth (in 18-22 year old range)

– Lack of capacity and quality in domestic higher education sector

• Looking ahead, transnational education will become a

tougher market in Asia as:

– Demographics reduce demand

– Capacity and quality of Asian universities improve and…

– …tougher quality assurance regimes impact Western providers

– Evidence that some franchise activity is being scaled back

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Conclusions (2)

• The traditional principal-agent (university-foreign private

college) model may have limited life span in Asia

• Activity may switch to other emerging markets in Africa and

LatAm…

• …and some new hubs where government policy is to draw in

foreign providers, notably Dubai and Qatar

• Continued TNE in Asia likely to be concentrated on IBCs

rather than franchising, but this may be a limited market

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