Overview of Recent Elections, 2010

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community CollegeNovember 18, 2010

National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote

• Party identification in 2010: Dem/Rep at 35%, 29% Ind. (vs. 39/32/29% in 2008)

• Defection slightly higher among Dems 7% vs 5% Reps

• Indep. vote sided strongly with Reps 56% not Dems 37% (vs. 41/52% in ‘08)

• Women equally split (48 D; 49% R) (vs. 56, 43% in 2008)

• Whites strongly Rep (60%) not Dem (37%) (vs. 55, 43% in 2008)

• Only those with little (57%) or postgrad ed (53%) favored Dems

Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls

National Politics: Exit Poll re: House Vote

Demographics of National House of Representatives Vote (vs. ‘08 Obama – National Exit Polls

Vote by Age (08/10)

Dem ’08

Dem ‘10

Rep

18-29 18/12 66 55 4230-44 29/24 52 46 5045-64 37/43 50 45 5365 and Older 16/21 45 38 59

Older voters worried about Medicare/Health care reform?

National Politics: House Vote• Libs and Moderates favored Dems (90, 55%) but were too small

(20, 38%) a part of electorate vs Cons. (42%) who massively favored Reps (84)

(2008: Lib 22; Moderate 44; Cons. 34%)

• Lost job – no effect(30%)? Yes (50 Dem; 46% Rep) No (45, 54%)

• Union member (17%): Yes (61 Dem; 37% Rep) No (43, 54%)

• 2008 Presidential Vote: Obama (45%) 84,14%; McCain (45%) 7,91%, Other (4%) 33, 58%

• Is vote support for Obama? Yes (23%) 96 Dem; 3% Rep; No (37%) 6, 92%, Not factor (38%), 52, 44%

National Politics: House Vote

How Congress is Handling its Job

 Democrat

 Republican

Strongly Approve (4%) 82 16Somewhat Approve (20%) 78 20Somewhat Disapprove (26%) 57 41Strongly Disapprove (48%) 19 77

What is your opinion of…  Democrat

 Republican

Democrats - favorable (44%) 91 8Republicans - favorable (41%) 11 88

Too many people strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing…

But unfavorable opinions are spread to both Dems and Reps

National Politics: House Vote

Opinion of Federal Government

 Democrat

 Republican

Enthusiastic (3%) 92 6Satisfied (21%) 79 18Dissatisfied (48%) 41 55Angry (25%) 14 83

Govt should do more ? Dem RepYes, do more (38%) vs 51% in ’08 77 21No, do less (56%) vs. 43% in ‘08 20 76

Govt. perceived as over-reaching…

With too many dissatisfied with federal govt.

National Politics: House VoteHow worried about economic conds.?

Dem Rep

Very Worried (49%) 30 68Somewhat Worried (37%) 52 43Not Too Worried (10%) 81 18Reversal of 2008 when those worried lined up behind

Dems

Economic anxieties favor Reps..

Worried That Economic Crisis Will Hurt Your Family

Dem Rep

Very Worried (48%) 62 36Somewhat Worried (33%) 52 47Not Too Worried (13%) 33 63Not Worried At All (5%) 40 56

National Politics: House Vote

Stimulus Policy has Dem RepHelped (32%) 86 13Hurt (34%) 10 87Made No Difference (31%) 39 57

Stimulus not perceived as having done enough…

While blaming Wall Street or Bush just wasn’t enough…

Who Do You Blame for Economic Problems?

Dem Rep

Wall Street (35%) 41 57George W. Bush (29%) 83 15Barack Obama (24%) 6 91

National Politics: House Vote

What Should Congress Do With New Health Care Law?

Dem Rep

Expand It (31%) 84 15Leave It As Is (16%) 63 34Repeal It (48%) 11 86

And probably viewed as a distraction from the prime concerns of most citizens…

Most Important Issue Facing Country Today

 Democrat

 Republican

Economy (63%) 43 54Health Care (18%) 51 47Illegal Immigration (8% 26 68War in Afghanistan (7%) 58 40

Health care reform was polarizing and insufficiently popular

National Politics: House Vote

Bush-Era Tax Cuts Should Be Continued For...

Dem Rep

All Americans (40%) 14 84Families Under $250,000 (36%) 64 32No One (15%) 75 22

Highest Priority for Next Congress

Dem Rep

Cutting Taxes (18%) 26 71Reducing Deficit (40%) 32 65Spending to Create Jobs (37%) 68 30

Republicans face contradictory pressures – reduce deficit vs. cutting taxes

Now policy direction lacks consensus…and is polarizing

National Politics: House Vote

U.S. War in Afghanistan Dem Rep Approve (40%) 24 75Disapprove (54%) 61 36

Should Same-Sex Marriages Be Legally Recognized?

Dem Rep

Yes (41%) 67 30No (53%) 27 70

Dems disapprove of war in Afghanistan – losing the base?

While same sex marriage still troubled waters for Dems

Polling Results for AA County

57 5458 55

6266

60 61 6258 58

5357 55

51 52 51 50 5247

52 52 49

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26 29 27

33 32 31 28 27 28 2820 19 17 20

1519

1418

13 1219 18 16 18 20 21

16 17 1725

21 20 23

Right 51

Wrong 34

Unsure 15

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp '9

9

Fa '9

9

Sp '0

0

Fa '0

0

Sp '0

1

Fa '0

1

Sp '0

2

Fa '0

2

Sp '0

3

Fa '0

3

Sp '0

4

Fa '0

4

Sp '0

5

Fa '0

5

Sp '0

6

Fa '0

6

Sp '0

7

Fa '0

7

Sp '0

8

Fa '0

8

Sp '0

9

Fa '0

9

Sp '1

0

Fa '1

0

Right Wrong Unsure

Remarkable stability in right/wrong direction…

AA County Polling Results: Most Important ProblemFall '04 to Fall '10

Fall '04 Spring '05

Fall '05 Spring '06

Fall '06 Spring '07

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Mean 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8 7 7

15

712

8

23

38

48

3336 36

20

1013

10 10 9

15 17 1612 10 12 11 13 12

Economy still top problem, but mostly unchanged since March 2009

Economy /Housing Taxes – too high Growth /developmentEducation / Traffic congestion /problems Crime / drugs

AA County Polling Results: Percentage saying “excellent” or “good” also stable since

March 2009

S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10Anne Arundel County Maryland USA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

AA County compared to USA – County looks around 35% better

S'02

F '02 S '03

F '03 S '04

F '04 S '05

F '05 S '06

F '06 S '07

F '07 S '08

F '08 S '09

F '09 S '10

F '100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

38

26 2722

34 3431 28

3842

3227

17

5 510 11 11

74 76

56 5662

74 7471

7471 71 69

5549

46 4844 45

CSLI - AA County

Gallup - USA

AA County Polling Results: Mostly stable findings in % saying a condition ‘applies’

Unable

to fin

d afford

able

housin

g

Wages

or sal

aries

are no

t risin

g as fa

st as th

e cost

of liv

ing

Hard to

afford

the c

ost of

transp

ortati

on

Hard to

afford

the c

ost of

utilit

ies su

ch as

electr

icity o

r gas

Taxes

are to

o high

in re

lation

to go

vernm

ent se

rvices

prov

ided

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

21

56

40

61

11

59

32

5058

12

55

21

5359

13

55

17

42

59

15

56

21

44

63

10

56

24

43

60

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Some costs have gone down

The economy: what else applies?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

116

35

15

71

4

30

24

75

6

51

2924

70

8

46

33

19

56

7

47

32

21

60

7

44

34

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10

Unemployment rose sharply from March ‘08 to March ‘09 and hasn’t changed much since

Stock market recovery lessened ‘losses’ per-centage

Health care anxiety unchanged despite re-form…

Minor improvement in readiness to spend

Statewide Races – AAC Results ‘06/’10

Govr Comptroller Atty Gen. Senate0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

43.3

5151.5

45.743.450.4

100

52.356.7

4948.5

54.354.4

49.6

0

47.7

Very little change in Governor or Comptroller outcomes

Mikulski improves

Gubernatorial Races – Anne Arundel CountyAnne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

8000066972

-2254

-28743-20788

-53215

-27581

-21963

Dem – Rep Vote for GovernorSchaeffer 83%Mooney 17%

Schaeffer 49%Shepard 51%

Glendening 40%Sauerbrey 60%

Glendening 43%Sauerbrey 57%

KK Townsend 35%Ehrlich 65%

O’Malley 42%Ehrlich 57%

O’Malley 43%Ehrlich 54%

O’Malley on low end of typical Dem vote deficit

Statewide Races: O’Malley vs. Ehrlich for Governor 2006-2010

Nov. 2006

March 2010

October 11-14, 2010

Oct. 26-27

Nov. 2

Candidate ActualVote

All Categorie

s

Exclude some

All categorie

s

Exclude some

Exclude all

except voters

Exit Poll

Actual

VoteO’Malley 42 35 43 29 32 42 46 43Ehrlich 56.9 47 57 40 45 59 51 54Gap 14.9 12 14 11 13 19 5 11Other -- 3 -- 2 -- -- 3 --Undecided -- -- -- 22 24 -- -- --Neither -- 5 -- 1 -- -- -- --Unsure -- 10 -- 5 -- -- -- --Total 100 100 99 101 101 100

Polls are in range, but with internal variation

State Senate in AAC (Districts 30,31,32,33)

STATE SENATOR 30 STATE SENATOR 31 STATE SENATOR 32 STATE SENATOR 330%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

54%50%

62%

45%46%50%

38%

55%51%

38%

60%

0%

49%

62%

40%

100%

Dem 2006Rep 2006Dem 2010Rep 2010

Dems experience lower percentages in all districts

Delegate Races in Districts 30,31,32,33: Dem-Rep

Gap

30 31 32 33a 33b

-35000

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

4982

-3341

10983

-5038

-2164

-3567

-32511

8825

-27514

-14492

Dem-Rep 2006

Dem-Rep 2010

Big Dem loss in 31 33b uncontested

33a only 1 Dem cand.

Loses in 32 – what’s the future for Dems there?

Race gets very close in 30

Senate and Delegate Minimum Winning Totals in Districts 30,31,32,33

Minimum winning vote Seats

District Senate Delegates

Senate Delegate

30 25253 22535 Dem D=1/R=2

31 25723 22436 Rep D=0/R=3

32 24762 18786 Dem D=3/R=0

33(a) 43466unconteste

d

18603 Rep D=0/R=2

33b uncontested

14623 D=0/R=1

District 33 – McConkey wins again!

Vitale sweeps up Severna Park; McConkey a solid second place.

Brennan

McConkey

Mc-Br

Vitale

Odenton/Millersville

27.0 34.4 +7.4 38.3

Severna Park 23.7 29.7 +6 46.3

Crofton/Crownsville 27.9 33.2 +5.3 38.6

Overall % 25.7 32.3 +6.6 41.7

Raw vote 14792 18603 +3811

24033

District 30 – Dems lose a seatBusch Clagett George

2006 2010 2010-2006

2006 2010

2010-2006

2006 2010

2010-2006

Broadneck 15.07

15.64

+.57 14.88

13.36

-1.5218.28 22.14

+3.86

Annapolis 20.91

21.60

+.7 19.86

17.76

-2.113.44 16.43

+2.99

South County

15.06

14.65

-.41 17.27

14.91

-2.3617.50 21.18

+3.68

Totals 17.06

18.01

+.95 16.97

15.87

-1.1 16.55

19.25

+2.65

Busch improves over 2006; Clagett drops across the board; George romps

Totals

%

Ron George 25610 19.25

Mike Busch 23964 18.01

Herb McMillan 22535 16.94

V. Clagett 21118 15.87

Seth Howard 20064 15.08

Judd Legum 19647 14.77

County Elections: Slots at Arundel MillsOpponents to the introduction of slot machines at Arundel Mills Mall are circulating a petition to put the county council’s decision to grant zoning needed for slots to referendum in November, potentially reversing the decision. Do you support or oppose this petition effort?Position March

’10Oct.‘10

Exit Poll

Actual Vote

Support 45 42 60 55.6Oppose 45 42 39 44.4Gap 0 0 21 11.2Unsure 7 16 -- --No answer 2 -- 1 --Total 99 100 100 100

Will you be voting for or against Question A on the November ballot? A "for" vote would approve the County Council's zoning decision permitting slots in the county, including at Arundel Mills and Laurel.  An 'against' vote would leave the county without slots zoning at any location.

What happened to shift voter sentiment at last minute?

Question A: Election Day vs. Early Votingby Council District

1 2 3 4 5 6 70.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

51.1%

59.5%

65.0%

52.0%54.1% 54.8% 55.9%

61.3%

47.3%

54.5% 54.8% 56.5%

Quest AEarly Votes

Harundale Lib

West County

Lib

SPark Lib Annap

Senior Ctr

Edgewa-ter Lib

Early voted at West County

Early voting a good predictor of election day votes

County Executive Vote 1994-2010

1994 1998 2002 2006 20100

100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000

5761563879

83305

93533 97465

54899

87676 8945689613

85040

10486

RepDemOther

2716 23987 6151 392012425

Including Shay -1930

GAPOnly a few thousand votes separate Dem/Rep candidates

2010 County Exec Race Over Time

Nov. 2006

June 2010Online Poll

Sept.2010Onlin

ePoll

October 11-14, 2010

Oct. 26-27

Nov. 2

Candidate

ActualVote

All Categories

All Categories

All categories

Exclude some

Exclude all

except voters

Exit Poll

ActualVote

Johnson/Conti

49 30 (Owens)

23 (Conti)

28 21 24 37 39 44.0

Leopold 51 52/54 54 34 38 59 50 50.5Gap 2 22/31 26 13 14 22 11 6.5Other -- 15/16 10 2 3 -- -- 5.4Undecided -- -- -- 32 35 -- -- --Neither -- 4/7 9 2 -- -- 3 --Unsure -- -- -- 10 -- -- -- --Total 101/100 101 100 101 100 100Unlike Governor’s race, CE race much harder to predict –much tightening at the end…

County Executive Vote – Composition of Vote

by Party

23 44 38 50 2 7 35 2

40 72

21 21

4 733 2

1012

5681

0 7

33

1

1548 28 48

35

505

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Undecided None

UnaffilRepDemOverall

CONTI LEOPOLD SHAY

Oct. 11-14 telephone survey 1st) vs. exit poll (2nd)

Conti gains among unaffiliated and Dem voters

Leopold taps Reps and crossover Dems

Unaffiliated split votes Telephone Poll

Vote Composition: Exit Poll

Overall Dem Rep Unaffil.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

44

72

12

4843

84

9

39

51

89

15

57ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee

Conti lags among Dem voters but gains a bit among unaffiliated

Voter Composition continued: Exit Poll

Strg Dem Weak Dem Ind Dem Ind Rep Weak Rep Strg Rep0

20

40

60

80

100

120

81

64

31 2919

4

95

75

50

2112

0

96

83 83

13

40

4

ContiO'MalleyWeathersbee

Conti lags among Dems, but gains among Reps

Vote by Ideology

Liberal Moderate Conservative0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

79

54

1016

41

8285

52

610

40

9494

59

136

42

87

ContiLeopoldO'MalleyEhrlichWeathersbeeGrannon

Conti lags among liberals but does a bit better with conservatives

County Exec.: How informed were voters?

Series10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9

28

56 56

35

16

31

43 42

53

27

5

0 0

24

0

76

0

ContiLeopoldUndecided

Oct. 11-14

Oct. 11-14

Oct. 11-14

EXIT POLL

EXIT POLL

EXIT POLL

VERY In-formed

SOMEWHAT Informed

NOT VERY Informed

Voters seem informed by election

Leopold voters started and remained more informed

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by Undecided/Don’t know (Oct. 11-14)

  On this issue are you more favorable to Conti, Leopold or Shay?

 Issue Conti Leopold

L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know

enough

Undec.+ don’t

know enoughAllowing slots at Arundel Mills mall

10 17 7 1 27 46 73

Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 4465

Maintaining high ethical standards

17 17 0 3 24 39 63

Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Making County government more efficient

12 29 17 2 21 37 58

Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56Having the right experience for the job

11 32 21 1 21 35 56

Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55Encouraging economic development

13 31 18 1 18 37 55

  Conti Leopold L-C Shay Undecided Don’t know

enough

U

Undecided/Don’tknow

enoughHaving the right experience for the job 11 32 21 1 21 35 56Encouraging economic development 13 31 18 1 18 37 55Making County government more efficient 12 29 17 2 21 37 58

Managing growth 13 29 16 2 18 38 56Keeping taxes low 14 30 16 1 19 36 55Improving public schools 13 24 11 1 19 43 62Keeping neighborhoods safe 13 24 11 1 21 41 62Allowing slots at Arundel Mills mall 10 17 7 1 27 46 73Improving transportation 13 20 7 1 21 45 66Preserving the environment 15 21 6 7 18 39 57Protecting the needs of vulnerable populations in the county budget

16 18 2 1 21 44 65

Maintaining high ethical standards 17 17 0 3 24 39 63

County executive choice: Whose stands do you favor? Sorted by those favoring Leopold over Conti (Oct. 11-14)

Issue Stands/Traits Most Shaping Choice for County Exec. (Exit Poll)

Issue/trait Overall Conti Leopold L-C Balance budget 30 21 44 23Taxes 21 10 34 24Right experience 22 15 32 17Cost of living 14 7 23 16Strong leader 16 11 24 13Economy 33 31 43 12Crime 14 9 20 11Growth/devel. 15 12 18 6Familiar name 4 1 7 6Slots 10 8 12 4Constituent serv. 9 8 11 3Environment 15 17 11 -6Schools 21 26 19 -7Honesty 13 21 8 -13Right moral outlook 16 24 9 -15Party affiliation 28 38 22 -16

Conti bets on character and party

Leopold bets on experience and issues

Weathersbee vs. Bateman

Council District

Weathersbee ‘06

Weathersbee

‘10

Weathersbee

‘10-’06

Bateman‘10

W-B

1 57.3 54.3 -3 60.4 -6.12 55.3 52.8 -2.5 59.8 -7.03 48.8 43.6 -5.2 55.5 -11.94 58.2 56.4 -1.8 61.9 -5.55 49.2 46.7 -2.5 55.1 -8.46 62.0 58.6 -3.4 61.5 -2.97 51.8 45.7 -6.1 50.7 -5.0

Total54.7 51.2 -3.5

57.8 (up from 54% in ‘06) -6.7Weathersbee has large

losses in districts 3 and 7 in 2010 and no gains in any district

Bateman increases votes from ‘06 and wins majority in all districts in 2010

Council Districts Party Registration

36% D, 41%R, 19%U

48%D, 31%R, 18%U

53%D, 29%R, 18%U

49%D, 32%R, 18%U42%D, 39%R, 19%U

37%D, 44%R, 20%U

47%D, 31%R, 18%U

Democratic Candidates by Council

District

CC1

CC2

CC3

CC4

CC5

CC6

CC7

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

49.2%

48.5%

35.7%

57.1%

42.8%

58.0%

43.8%

45.8%

42.8%

30.8%

51.9%

37.1%

51.7%

39.8%

47.4%

46.2%

35.0%

53.8%

38.7%

48.1%

39.9%

52.5%

45.5%

41.0%

59.5%

36.0%

53.1%

36.4%

51.7%

48.1%

41.7%

47.1%

36.6%

46.1%

37.6%

PartyRegDemCCContiOmalleyObama

Benoit and Trumbauer exceed Dem registra-tion

Klosterman under-performs in district 2

Conti underperforms in district 6

Rudolph about aver-age in district 5

Meaningless party reg. in district 3

Majority Dem regis-tration in D1

Democratic Candidates by Council District

Obama

OMalley Conti DemCC Mean

Party Reg

Mean-Reg.

CC1 49.2 45.8 47.4 52.5 48.7 51.7 -3

CC2 48.5 42.8 46.2 45.5 45.7 48.1 -2.4

CC3 35.7 30.8 35 41 35.6 41.7 -6.1

CC4 57.1 51.9 53.8 59.5 55.6 47.1 8.5

CC5 42.8 37.1 38.7 36 38.6 36.6 2.1

CC6 58 51.7 48.1 53.1 52.7 46.1 6.6

CC7 43.8 39.8 39.9 36.4 40 37.6 2.4

District 3 underperforms!

Districts 4 and 6 overperform

Legislative Districts

National Issues: Presidential job approval

39 34 3528 24

5347 47 4237 33 32 30 25

6154

47 43

010203040506070

Fall '06

Spring '07

Fall '07

Spring '08

Fall '08

Spring '09

Fall '09

Spring '10

Fall '10

CSLI Gallup