1

Outlook of Supply and Demand Trends of Petroleum Products

in Asia

Hidehiro Unoki, Senior Economist, Econometric Analysis Group Hideki Tashiro, Senior Economist, Econometric Analysis Group

The Energy Data and Modeling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

I. International Working Group* for Study of A Series of Framework for

Petroleum Industry in 2002: Supply and Demand Trends of Petroleum Products Making Use of Econometric Model

1. The background and Purpose of Study Before the economic crisis which attacked the Asian region in 1997 , the oil demand of East Asian region except Japan was an important problem since the rapid increase in an annual rate of no less than 7% has been accomplished, when considering the security of the oil supply to Japan. However, the oil demand in the East Asian region* decreased in 1998 immediately after the crisis, the supply of petroleum products became excess, and the market condition got worse quickly. It became a key point about what time the oil demand will recover from such a situation. Furthermore, the phenomena that have big influence on oil business, such as steep rise of a crude oil price, the simultaneous terrorist attacks, and the Iraq problem, have occured frequently in recent years. In the present condition of the above rapid changes, it is the purpose of this research to offer taking advantage of the basic information for making policy proposals by means of prediction analysis the newest energy and business information about the supply and demand conditions of petroleum products in the East Asian region which have a big impact especially on oil supply and demand of Japan.

This fiscal year, while having been anxious about the future of the energy and the economic situations, such as high crude oil price by the Iraq problem and global economical stagnation, we investigated the oil supply and demand in 2006 and 2010 from the viewpoint of reexamining the economic conditions and oil demand of each country of the East Asian region.

*Note: We abbreviate the East Asian region except Japan to the East Asian region from now on. *This research is done by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan in ”Study of A

2

Series of Framework for Petroleum Industry: Supply and Demand Trends of Petroleum Products Making Use of Econometric Model” in response to consignment of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. In addition, on the occasion of enforcement, the International Working Group (following International WG) committee was constituted, and examination was advanced in the committee.

2. Focused Issues in FY2002

(1) Although the oil demand of the East Asian region hung low under the influence of the Asian economic crisis in 1998, the oil demand also began to show a restorative tendency slowly according to the economical recovery keynote of Asian countries after the middle of 1999. After that the big phenomena have occurred such as high crude oil price, the simultaneous terrorist attacks and the Iraq problem, which have influenced the economy and oil demand of the East Asian region, then the prospect of future oil supply and demand is very uncertain.

(2) Although, as for China which has huge energy demand, the economic growth of about 7% per year continues to be expected, it is thought that the trend of abolition of the oil product trade restrictions by joining in WTO and rapid increase of the oil demand corresponding to economic growth has big influence on the oil supply and demand of the East Asian region.

Based on the above fluctuation factor, the future trend of the demand-and-supply balance in the future East Asian region was examined.

3

Ⅱ．Background of International Working Group Study 1. Progress of International Working Group in 2002 (1) Four meetings were held since September 2002 to analyze future supply and

demand of international petroleum products focusing on those in the East Asian region*. (*Note: In this report, the East Asian region refers to China, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei,

Hong Kong, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.) (2) The investigation was done with the consciousness of issues as described in the

previous page by integrating knowledge of the Working Group members with the help of combined a world energy demand estimation model (econometric model) and a world oil-refining trade flow model (linear programming model) developed by the Energy Data and Modeling Center, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

The future supply and demand of energy and petroleum in the world being investigated, in particular, special interest was focused on that in the East Asian region.

2. Scenarios and Main Assumptions (1) Scenarios

In 2002,we put on emphasis on two cases of "Base case" with relatively favorable economic growth and "low GDP growth case " where it was assumed to be that the economic growth of the East Asian region also would stagnate when stagnation of the world economy of these days prolongs. In addition, both crude oil price rise by 5$/bbl case and China refining capacities reinforcement case were set to analyze as sensitivity analysis how they would influence decrease in demand and the oil supply and demand balance of the East Asian region respectively (Table 1).

Base case (Business As Usual) In this case, economic growth rate as the premise of petroleum products

demand was set basically taking account of economic outlooks of corresponding country's governments, international organizations and quasi-organizations as such.

The average economic growth rate of the East Asian region from 2000 to 2006 is set at 5.3%. And the average annual economic growth rate of the East Asian region from 2006 to 2010 is set at 5.5%. Demand of petroleum products was calculated on the above premises. As for supply assumptions, realistic domestic plans for refining capacity expansion are adopted.

Low GDP growth case

The world economic stagnation is assumed to be continuing, so that annualeconomic growth rate is lower by 1.0% from 2003 to 2010 compared with that in the Base case.

The annual growth rate is assumed to be 4.6% from 2000 to 2006 and 4.5% from 2006 to 2010.

Supply side assumptions are set all the same with the Base case.

4

Table 1.Assumption Case Object

year The changed part to a Base case

1 Base case 2006 2010

2 Low GDP growth case

2006 2010

The annual economic growth rate is lower by 1.0% from 2003 compared with that in base case

3 Crude oil price rise case by 5$/bbl

2006 2010 The crude oil price rise 5$/bbl from 2003

4

China refining capability enhancement case (7.4 million b/d) *

2010 The Chinese CDU capability increase in +1 million b/d (from 6.4 million b/d of Base case to 7.4 million b/d.)

5

Middle East refining capability enhancement case (8.1million b/d) *

2010 The Middle East CDU capability increase in +1 million b/d (from 7.1 million b/d of Base case to 8.1 million b/d.)

*Enhanced refining capacities are Crude distillation unit (CDU).

(2) GDP Growth Rate Assumption

About the GDP growth rate, assumption as shown in Table 2 was placed based on the prediction value of Asian Development Bank's announcement, or the government plans announced by each country.

Table 2. Anuual GDP Growth Rate Assumption of each Country in East Asia Unit: Average annual growth rate(%)

Actual Base case Low GDP growth case

2001/ 2000

2006/ 2000

2010/ 2006

2006/ 2000

2010/ 2006

China 7.3 7.3 6.5 6.6 5.5 Hong Kong 0.6 3.4 4.0 2.4 3.0 Chinese Taipei -2.2 2.7 4.0 2.0 3.0 Korea 3.0 5.2 5.3 4.6 4.3 Singapore -2.0 3.2 5.0 2.5 4.0 Brunei 3.0 2.6 2.8 1.6 1.8 Indonesia 3.2 3.8 5.0 3.0 4.0 Malaysia 0.4 4.3 5.5 3.7 4.5 Philippines 3.2 4.1 4.9 3.4 3.9 Thailand 1.8 3.8 4.6 3.1 3.6 Vietnam 5.8 6.3 7.2 5.3 6.2 Average East Asia 3.5 5.3 5.5 4.6 4.5

(Soureces) Base case and low GDP growth case forcasted by International Working Group, the long-term economic plans and prospects from Asian Development Bank, the government of each country and related are regarded.

5

(3) Assumption of Crude Oil Prices

The prospect of “World Oil Price” of the Annual Energy Outlook 2003(DOE) is used for this crude oil price assumption.

Table 3. Assumption of a Crude Oil Price ($/bbl)

2001 2006 2010 2015 2020 Nominal price ($/bbl) 27.7 25.4 33.6 35.0 39.8

FY2001 Real price($/bbl) 22.4 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.5 (Source) DOE, Annual Energy Outlook 2003. (Note) Nominal price is calcurated by International Working Group using the deflators of the

Annual Energy Outlook 2003.

6

3. Present condition of the oil supply and demand of petroleum products in the East Asian region

(1) Actual petroleum products demand Oil demand in the East Asian region, which was damaged by the economic crisis,

began to recover in 1999. But for most countries, the ratio of demand increase slowed down from 1999 to 2000.

Despite the economic crisis in the region, oil demand in China increased. As a result, the increase of oil demand in China occupied about 2/3 of that of the East Asian region from 1999 to 2000. On the other hand, Thailand and Philippines have decreased in terms of absolute quantity over the same period (figure-1 and figure-2).

Fig-1 Oil Demand of the East Asian region

4. Forecasts of petroleum products demand in the East Asian region

(1) Forecasts of petroleum products demand in 2006 and 2010 －The oil demand of the East Asian region increases at about 3.5%. The increase

of oil demand of whole Asian countries makes up 40 percent of that of the world.

① Base Case It is predicted that the demand for petroleum products in the East Asian region

will slowly recover by 2006 (figure-3) whose average annual growth rate by 2006 is 3.3%. After that, till 2010, it will be supported by favorable economic growth and it is predicted that petroleum products' demand increases at an average annual rate of 3.6%.

Petroleum products' demand of China, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are

Fig-2 The Rate of Increase of Oil Products Demand in the East Asian region

(Source) Estimated by International Working Group, regarding to following information; IEA, Energybalances of OECD countries 1960-2000, Energy balances NON-OECD countries 1960-2000, Oilmarket report, Blackwell, Oil and energy trends annual statistics review 2001, and so on.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

1000

b/d

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

China (refer to left axis)

Korea (refer to left axis)

Chaines TaipeiSingapore

Thailand

Philippines

Indonesia

Malaysia

Total (refer to right axis)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Incr

ease

ratio

to p

revi

ous y

ear

Korea

Thailand

PhilippinesMalaysia

Chainese TaipeiAverage

China

Singapore

Indonesia

7

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1999 2000 2006 2010

（Million b/d)

10.45Mb/d

(3.3 %/y)

12.77Mb/d

15.03Mb/d

14.33Mb/d

13.04Mb/d(3.6 %/y)

(2.9 %/y)

(2.9 %/y)10.73Mb/d

Bas

e

Bas

e

Low Low

shown comparatively high. On the other hands, it is predicted that that of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea increase by comparatively low growth.

The oil demand of the world is expected to increase by 6.4 million b/d from 2000 to 2006, of which whole Asian countries increase by 2.55 million b/d and occupy 40 percent of the world. This tendency will not change till 2010.

Fig-3 Petroleum Products Demand in East Asia Region - Excluding Japan-

(Base Case and Low GDP Growth Case)

Tabel-4 Petroleum Products Demand in the East Asian Region - Excluding Japan-

(Unit：1,000 b/d) 2000 2006 2010 00～06 06～10 06/00 10/06China 4,210 5,446 6,495 1,235 1,050 4.4 4.5Hong Kong 245 266 284 21 19 1.4 1.7Chinese Taipei 821 862 932 40 70 0.8 2.0Korea 2,161 2,432 2,603 270 172 2.0 1.7Singapore 680 818 930 138 112 3.1 3.3Brunei 10 13 14 2 1 3.5 2.1Indonesia 1,048 1,297 1,451 249 155 3.6 2.9Malaysia 420 519 622 99 104 3.6 4.7Philippines 328 399 489 70 90 3.3 5.2Thailand 637 721 841 84 120 2.1 3.9Vietnam 169 269 372 100 103 8.1 8.5

East Asian Region Total (ex. Japan) 10,730 13,039 15,034 2,309 1,995 3.3 3.6(Low GDP growth case） 10,730 12,767 14,325 2,037 1,559 2.9 2.9Refining capacities 12,876 14,122 15,072 1,246 950 1.6 1.6

Asian Total（Base case） 18,621 21,255 23,754 2,633 2,500 2.2 2.8World Total（Base case） 71,749 78,236 84,516 6,487 6,279 1.5 1.9

East Asian Region 15.0 16.7 17.8 35.6 31.8Asia 26.0 27.2 28.1 40.6 39.8

Share(%)

Increase1,000 b/d

Annual averageGrowth rate％

The share of East Asianregion and Asia to theincrement in the world

8

② Low GDP Growth Case In the Low GDP growth case where the annual economic growth rate from 2003 is

1% lower than Base case, petroleum product demand will decrease by 2.1% (270 thousand b/d reduction) in 2006, and the reduction rate will be expanded to 4.7% (710 thousand b/d reduction) in 2010 compared with the Base case ratio.

(2) Oil refining capacities in the East Asian region

- The reinforcement of oil refineries will be carried out in China, and also planned in Indonesia and in Vietnam -

Oil refining capacities in the East Asian region are expected to increase to 1,251

thousand b/d in 2006. The gap, what’s called supply surplus*, between oil refining capacities and the demand without taking into account operation rates, was 2,141 thousand b/d in 2000, it will decrease to 1,080 thousand b/d in 2006, and further down to 40 thousand b/d in 2010.

Even as the assumption of oil refining capacities in 2010 might be severe in this time because many of the construction plans are unclear at present and also some projects that have stopped in a completion schedule by economic crisis or other reasons are excluded, we made that by taking into account construction plans which highly estimated to complete by 2010.

*Supply surplus: the difference between refining capacities and oil products demand without considering operation rates

Table-5 Differences between Refining Capacities and Petroleum Products Demand in the East Asian Region (Base Case)- Excluding Japan-

As seen in Table-6, refining capacities reinforcements from 2000 to 2010 are assumed

as follows: China+1,400 thousand b/d, Vietnam+300 thousand b/d, and +200 thousand b/d of Indonesia. Although there are about 400 thousand b/d reinforcements plans in Indonesia, we assumed about 200 thousand b/d would be reinforced because of taking into account construction plans which are highly estimated to complete. In addition, FORUMOSA oil refinery in Taiwan, about 300 thousand b/d reinforcement was already completed in 2001.

Unit: 1,000 b/d2000 2006 2010 00～06 06～10

①Refining capacities 10,730 13,039 15,034 2,309 1,995②Petroleum products demand 12,871 14,122 15,072 1,251 950Supply surplus(②－① ) 2,141 1,083 38 -1,058 -1,046

Increase

9

Table-6 Capacities of Oil Refineries in the East Asian Region - Excluding Japan-

(3) Supply and demand balance of petroleum products in the East Asian region

① Base Case

－Supply and demand balance of petroleum products in the East Asian region will keep import position by 860 thousand b/d in 2006, and the gap will become wider 1,290 thousand b/d in 2010. －

In 2006, even as petroleum products demand increases by 2,310 thousand b/d from 2000 to 2006, refining capacities are expected to increase by 1,420 thousand b/d about 60 percent of the increase in demand. Although the operating ratio of equipments goes up by 4% and becomes 86% in order to compensate the increase of demand that exceeds that of supply, a supply-demand gap becomes an import position of 860 thousand b/d.

In 2010, petroleum products demand becomes almost equal to refining capacities, and the operating ratio of refining equipments goes up further to 91.2%. While refining capacities of the East Asian region reach to an assuming upper limit of operation rate, the supply cannot cover the whole demand and the supply-demand gap is expanded up to import position of 1,290 thousand b/d as a result.

Unit：1000 b/d2000 2006 2010 00～06 06～10

China 5,000 5,800 6,400 800 600Chinese Taipei 925 1,220 1,220 295 0Korea 2,750 2,750 2,750 0 0Singapore 1,269 1,269 1,269 0 0Brunei 9 9 9 0 0Indonesia 1,065 1,073 1,273 8 200Malaysia 515 515 515 0 0Philippines 420 420 420 0 0Thailand 918 918 918 0 0Vietnam 0 150 300 150 150East Asian region total 12,871 14,122 15,072 1,253 950

CDU Capacities Increase

10

Table-7 Petroleum Products Supply and Demand

in the East Asian region (Base Case)- Excluding Japan-

（Notes）Because of rounding off, demand-supply gaps are not equal to differences between petroleum

products demand and production in this table.

*Demand-supply gap in china is included in the East Asia's.

Fig-4 Capacities of Oil Refineries and Petroleum Products Demand in the East Asian Region - Excluding Japan-

Unit：1,000 b/d2000 2006 2010 2000～2006 2006～2010

Petroleum products demand 10,730 13,039 15,034 2,309 1,995

Petroleum products production 10,504 12,182 13,746 1,678 1,564

Demand-supply gap in East Asia -226 -857 -1,288 -631 -431

Demand-supply gap in China* -216 -806 -1,055 -590 -250

Refining equipment capability 12,871 14,122 15,072 1,251 950

Refinery utilization in East Asia 81.6% 86.3% 91.2% 4.7 4.9

Increase

12.87M b/d

14.12M b/d15.07M b/d

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

2000 2006 2010

1.08

(86.3%)

(91.2%)

0.86

2.14(81.6%)

0.23

(Increase 1.25M b/d)

(Increase 0.95M b/d) 0.04

1.29

(Million b/d)

11

Fig-5 Capacities of Oil Refineries and Petroleum Fig-6 Capacities of Oil Refineries and Petroleum Products Demand in China Products Demand in Korea

② Low GDP Growth Case

－In this case annual economic growth rate of the East Asian region is low about 1%,

supply and demand balance of petroleum products is in import position of 580 thousand b/d in 2006 and 2010. －

In the low GDP growth case where the annual GDP growth rate of the East Asian region is lower 1% than base case from 2003, as compared with the base case, the demand will decrease 270 thousand b/d in 2006, and the supply and demand balance becomes import position of 585 thousand b/d.

In order that the demand will decrease 700 thousand b/d in 2010 compared with the base case, the supply and demand balance becomes import position of 579 thousand b/d, almost same level as in 2006.

Fig-7 Demand-Supply Gap of Petroleum Products in East Asia (Excluding Japan)

(Demand-Supply Gap) = (Petroleum Products Production) - (Demand)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2006 2010

(Million b/d)

Avera

ge o

pera

tion r

ate

Capa

citie

s

Cap

aciti

es

Dem

and

(Bas

e)

Dem

and

(Low

)

5.00M b/d

5.80M b/d6.40M b/d

( Increase 0.80M b/d )( Increase 0.60M b/d )

0.22M

1.06M

0.81M

Ass

umin

g up

per l

imit

of o

pera

tion

rate

3.99M b/d(79.9%) (80.0%)

(85.0%)4.64M b/d

5.44M b/d

Dem

and

(Act

ual)

Capa

citie

s

Dem

and

(Bas

e)

Ass

umin

g up

per l

imit

of o

pera

tion

rate

Dem

and

(Low

)

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2006 2010

(Million b/d)

Capa

citie

s

Capa

citie

s

capa

citie

s

Dem

and

(Bas

e)

Dem

and

(Bas

e)

Dem

and

(Low

)

Dem

and

(Low

)

2.75M b/d 2.75M b/d 2.75M b/d0.35M b/d

0.01M b/d

(95.0%)

0.18M b/d

Dem

and

(Act

ual)

(91.5

%) (95.0%)

Aver

age o

pera

tion

rat

e

Ass

umin

g up

per l

imit

of o

pera

tion

rate

Ass

umin

g up

per l

imit

of o

pera

tion

rate

It is predicted that petroleum products demand of

China exceeds Capacities of Oil Refineries in 2010.

While South Korea is export position at present, it is

predicted that supply and demand will balance in

2010.

-857 kb/d

-1,288 kb/d

-226 kb/d-238 kb/d

-404 kb/d

-636 kb/d

-355 kb/d

-377 kb/d -585 kb/d -579 kb/d

-1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-2000200400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2006

2010

(1,000 b/d)

Net

exp

ort

Net

impo

rt

12

(4) Sensitivity analysis ① Change of the balance of the East Asian region by the difference degree of the

amount of refining capacities (CDU) reinforcement in China －In the case where CDU capacities reinforcement of 1 million b/d is performed in 2010, the supply and demand balance of petroleum product in the East Asian region will become import position of 931 thousand b/d , almost same level as in 2006. －

When refining capacities in China rise to 7,400 thousand b/d (Base case ratio+1 million b/d) in 2010, it is predicted that the supply-demand gap of the East Asian region become import position of 931 thousand b/d from that of 1,290 thousand b/d in base case, and become almost same level as in 2006.

According to the above-mentioned sensitivity analysis, it is predicted as follows. Even if China extends refining capacities by 1 million b/d, the operating ratio will not reach to the assumed upper limit (85%) because of the compound factor of oil products balance and cost, but became a little more than 80%, then the increase of production will reach at not more than 500 thousand b/d. On the other hand, there is decrease of 140 thousand b/d by decline of operation in Thailand because of higher operation cost within the region, and the net import of the East Asian region will decrease by 360 thousand b/d compared with the Base case, resulting in 931 thousand b/d.

Fig-8 Case of Chinese refining capacities rise to 7 million b/d (Base case ratio+1

million b/d) in 2010 Demand-Supply Gap of Petroleum Products in the East Asia (Excluding Japan)

-404

-931-857

-226-238

-377

-636

-355

-1288-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2006

2010

(1000 b/d)

CDU capacitiesreinforced case

360

Net

exp

ort

Net

impo

rt

13

②Change of the balance of the East Asian region by the difference degree of the amount of refining capacities (CDU) reinforcement in Middle East －In the case where CDU capacities reinforcement of 1 million b/d is performed in 2010, the supply and demand balance of petroleum products in the East Asian region will become import position of 1,551 thousand b/d, the net import will increase by 260 thousand b/d compared with the Base case. － When refining capacities in the Middle East rise to 8.1 million b/d (the Base case ratio+1 million b/d) in 2010, it is predicted that the supply and demand gap of the East Asian region will become import position of 1,551 thousand b/d from that of 1,288 thousand b/d of the Base case. According to the above-mentioned sensitivity analysis, if the Middle East extends CDU capacities by 1 million b/d, the export of increased petroleum products from the Middle East will mainly replace that from Taiwan and Thailand within the region. As a result, the quantity of production totally decreases by 261 thousand b/d because of decline of CDU operation rate in Taiwan and Thailand, the demand and supply balance spreads in net import about 1,551 thousand b/d.

Fig-9 Case of the Middle East refining capacities rise to 8.1 million b/d (Base case ratio+1 million b/d) in 2010

Demand-Supply Gap of Petroleum Products in the East Asian region

-404

-1551

-872

-226-238

-377

-636

-355

-1288

-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2006

2010

(1000 b/d)

-260

Net

exp

ort

Net

impo

rt

14

③Change of the demand of the East Asian region in the case of rising crude oil price －When the crude oil price rises by $5, petroleum products demand decreases 2% (250 thousand b/d) compared with the Base case.－

The working group has done the sensitivity analysis of petroleum products when the

crude oil price rises up to $5 from 2003 as compared with the Base case. Usually, the income moves to oil producing countries if crude oil price rises. Although the fall of GDP could be considered in the East Asian region because of many countries import crude oil in the region, GDP was fixed on this case and the influence was seen by means of crude oil price fluctuations.

When the crude oil price rises by $5, petroleum products demand in the East Asian region decreases 230 thousand b/d (about 1.8%) in 2006 compared with the Base case. Among them petroleum products demand in China decreases 110 thousand b/d. Then almost the same result is seen in 2010, when the crude oil price rises by $5 as same assumption, petroleum products demand decreases 270 thousand b/d (about 1.8%) compared with the Base case.

Table-8 The Sensitivity Analysis of Petroleum Products Demand in the East Asian Region (Excluding Japan)

Unit:1000b/d

Base Low $5 up Base Low $5 up①Demand 13,039 12,767 12,804 15,034 14,325 14,761②Difference* -272 -235 -709 -273Rate of change(②/①) -2.1% -1.8% -4.7% -1.8%(Note) *(Difference) = (Each case) – (Base case)

2006 2010

15

－<<Reference >> When the crude oil price rises by $5, GDP of the East Asian region will fall about 0.4%.－

As in the former sensitivity analysis, GDP was fixed, here is the reference of the change of GDP of the East Asian region estimated in 2000 when a crude oil price rises by $5. Consequently, it is expected that GDP of the East Asian region fall about 0.4% only by the effect of income transfer to the oil exporting countries. Since the ripple effect by income transfer is actually expected, it is predicted that the decreasing rate of GDP becomes larger than 0.4%. Table-9 The change of GDP in the East Asian Countries when the crude oil price rises

by $5 (Rough value in 2000)

Analysis by assumption that an oil import CIF price also carries out a 5$/bbl rise when a crude oil price carries out a 5$/bbl rise.

(Unit：Billion $、Million bbl) ChinaChineseTaipei Korea Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Total

①Net import of petroleum prod 518 324 782 284 -129 -72 121 218 2,045

②GDP(nominal price ) 1,080 309 462 93 152 90 75 122 2,382

③The increaseamount of moneyin net import

2.6 1.6 3.9 1.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.6 1.1 10.2

④GDP ratio%　　(③/②*100）

-0.24 -0.52 -0.85 -1.53 0.42 0.40 -0.81 -0.89 -0.43

Influence ofthe crudeprice risesby $5

16

2006 (Base Case)

-811

-118

-10

12

-75

-259

-3

305

304

-24

-258

-685

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

EastAsia (excl.Jap.)

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Brunei

Singapore

Korea

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong

China

(1000B/D)Negative Figures indicates net import.

Net Export ->

F.Y. 2000

-256

-156

71

-4

-27

-86

0

-17

424

-93

-238

-131

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

EastAsia (excl.Jap.)

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Brunei

Singapore

Korea

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong

China

(1000B/D)Negative Figures indicates net import.

<- Net Import

Net Export ->

2006 (Low GDP growth Case)

-565

-100

1

27

-63

-234

-3

316

351

4

-254

-612

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

EastAsia (excl.Jap.)

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Brunei

Singapore

Korea

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong

China

(1000B/D)Negative Figures indicates net import.

Net Export ->

Supply and Demand Balance of Fuel Oil in East Asia (excluding Japan)by Country

<- Net Import

<- Net Import

2010 (Base Case)

-1,085

-76

56

-69

-168

-227

-4

162

175

184

-277

-842

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

EastAsia (excl.Jap.)

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Brunei

Singapore

Korea

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong

China

(1000B/D)Negative Figures indicates net import.

Net Export -><- Net Import2010 (Low GDP growth Case)

-446

-56

90

-31

-139

-164

-4

192

303

241

-269

-608

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

EastAsia (excl.Jap.)

Vietnam

Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Brunei

Singapore

Korea

Chinese Taipei

Hong Kong

China

(1000B/D)Negative Figures indicates net import.

Net Export -><- Net Import

17

III. Supply and Demand Analysis of Petroleum Products in the East Asian Region and the World

1. Method and Feature of the Outlook The supply and demand outlook was done by combining an econometric model (Energy demand estimation model) and a linear programming model ( trade flow model of petroleum products) developed by the Energy Data and Modeling Center, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Conceptual model structure is as follows. This outlook deals with the demand and supply of world energy and petroleum, and focus on that in the East Asian region. Main assumptions refer to pages 31 and 32. Model Structure 2. Scenarios Base Case (Business As Usual Case) In this case, the average annual growth rate of the East Asian region except Japan (the East Asian region) from 2000 to 2006 is set at 5.3%. And the average annual growth rate of the East Asian region from 2006 to 2010 is set at 5.5%. Demand of petroleum products was calculated on these premises. Low GDP Growth Case In this case, the annual economic growth rate is lower by 1.0% after the year 2003 up to the year 2010 compared with that in the base case. The growth rate is assumed to be 4.6% from 2000 to 2006 and 4.5% from 2006 to 2010.

Main assumptions

GDP, Population, Crude oil price,Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Power supply

plan,

World energy demand estimation models (for 31areas)

Final energy demand estimation by sector by sourcePower generation and Fuel consumption for power generation

Primary energy demand by source

Final demand of petroleum productsTransformation sector demand of petroleum products

Domestic demand of petroleum products

Assumptions for refiningand freight

Refining costs, refiningcapacities, freights,

crude oil prices, yields ofpetroleum products

The petroleum refining and trade estimation model(a Liner programming model)

Supplies and trade of Petroleum productsUtilizations of refining facilities

(Costs of petroleum products supplies) = (Freights of crude oils) + (Refining costs) +(Freights of petroleum products)

[The object is to minimize world total supply cost of petroleum products]

18

As for the supply assumption, realistic domestic plans for refineries capacities expansion are adopted in both cases. 3. Simulation Results (1) Primary energy supply Base Case ・ Primary energy demand in the East Asian region is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 3.3% from 2000 to 2010, and also of the whole Asia is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 2.7% during the same period. On the other hand, since the primary energy demand of the Asian region is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 1.9 % during the same period, it is estimated that the share of the East Asian region and the whole Asia in the world is expected to grow by 2.3 point, and by 2.0 point respectively, therefore, finally it will reach at 18.9% and at 28.8% respectively.

Transition of Primary Energy Demand (Base and Low GDP Growth Case)

(Note) The combustible renewable energy demands are included in the primary energy demands of OECD countries, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. Low GDP Growth Case ・ In this case which is expected slowdown of the economic growth in the East Asian region, the growth rate of primary energy demand is lower by 0.4 % compared with that of the Base case from 2000 to 2010, and the primary energy demand is expected to grow at a annual rate of 2.9%. Although it is predicted that the share of the East Asian region in the world will fall by 0.5 point in 2010 as compared with the Base case, the share of the East Asian region in the world will increase as compared with that in 2000, even if Low GDP growth case. The share of the whole Asia in the world will also increase, showing the same tendency.

Base Low Base Low Base Low Base Low Base Low Base LowWorld Total 9,043 10,108 10,069 10,937 10,831 13,290 12,920 1.87 1.81 1.99 1.84 1.97 1.78Asia Total 2,428 2,820 2,782 3,148 3,041 4,181 3,810 2.53 2.29 2.79 2.26 2.88 2.28India 300 353 342 401 374 591 493 2.71 2.21 3.24 2.22 3.97 2.81Other Asia 104 125 122 138 131 176 165 2.99 2.56 2.61 1.84 2.45 2.36East Asia 2,023 2,343 2,318 2,609 2,537 3,413 3,152 2.48 2.29 2.73 2.29 2.72 2.19

East Asia (Ex.Japa 1,498 1,805 1,780 2,068 1,996 2,858 2,597 3.15 2.91 3.46 2.91 3.29 2.67China 928 1,089 1,082 1,248 1,219 1,740 1,610 2.70 2.59 3.46 3.04 3.38 2.82Hong Kong 15 17 17 18 18 20 19 1.99 1.77 1.18 0.86 1.14 0.74Chinese Taipei 83 99 98 110 105 132 125 3.07 2.73 2.46 1.82 1.90 1.75Korea 194 236 229 263 245 314 257 3.35 2.83 2.75 1.69 1.80 0.48Singapore 25 31 31 36 34 48 45 4.17 3.70 3.74 2.94 2.89 2.79Brunei 2 3 3 3 3 5 5 5.33 5.29 4.22 4.18 4.28 4.25Indonesia 98 125 123 144 138 209 186 4.13 3.80 3.61 2.96 3.78 3.03Malaysia 47 61 60 74 71 110 101 4.50 4.21 4.76 4.31 4.05 3.55Philippine 33 45 44 57 54 96 86 5.29 4.86 6.02 5.28 5.46 4.81Thailand 59 74 73 84 80 130 114 3.74 3.41 3.12 2.34 4.49 3.61Vietnam 14 24 22 32 29 53 50 8.99 7.16 7.37 7.47 5.25 5.55

World Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Asia Total 26.8 27.9 27.6 28.8 28.1 31.5 29.5India 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.8Other Asia 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3East Asia 22.4 23.2 23.0 23.9 23.4 25.7 24.4

East Asia (Ex.Japa 16.6 17.9 17.7 18.9 18.4 21.5 20.1China 10.3 10.8 10.7 11.4 11.3 13.1 12.5Hong Kong 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1Chinese Taipei 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Korea 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0Singapore 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4Brunei 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Indonesia 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.4Malaysia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8Philippine 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7Thailand 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9Vietnam 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

【Share to World Total ％】

2000 2010/2006 2020/2010Primary energy demand （Million TOE) Annual average growth rate（％）

2006 2010 2020 2006/2000

19

(2) Petroleum products demand Base Case ・ While the demand of world petroleum products will grow by 1.7% per year from 2000 to 2006, by 2.1% from 2006 to 2010, the East Asian region's demand for petroleum products will expect to grow by 3.4% per year from 2000 to 2006, by 3.8% from 2006 to 2010, including China which grows by 4.2%, by 4.4% respectively during the same period. Therefore, the share of the East Asian region in the world is expected to grow by 1.6 point in 2006, by 2.8 point in 2010 as compared with that in 2000. Then the share of the whole Asia in the world is expected to grow by 1.2 point in 2006, by 2.1 point in 2010 as compared with that in 2000.

Transition of Petroleum Products Demand (Base and low GDP Growth Case)

(Note) * World total excludes "Other Africa", "Other Latin America", and "Other Asia and Oceania" which are defined by IEA. Low GDP Growth Case ・ In this case, the growth rate of petroleum products demand in the East Asian region is lower than that in the Base case by about 0.4 point per year from 2000 to 2006, by about 0.7% from 2006 to 2010. The share of the East Asian region in the world is expected to grow by 1.3 point in 2006, by 2.1point in 2010 as compared with 2000, and the share of the whole Asia in the world is expected to grow by 0.9 point in 2006, by 1.3 point in 2010 as compared with that in 2000.

Base Low Base Low Base Low Base Low Base Low Base LowWorld Total 3,468 3,840 3,821 4,164 4,116 5,013 4,841 1.71 1.63 2.05 1.88 1.87 1.63Asia Total 930 1,077 1,058 1,203 1,155 1,591 1,418 2.47 2.17 2.82 2.23 2.83 2.07India 102 125 122 152 144 244 214 3.45 3.00 4.89 4.12 4.86 4.08Other Asia 32 39 38 43 41 54 50 3.11 2.67 2.65 1.83 2.26 2.13East Asia 795 912 898 1,008 971 1,293 1,154 2.31 2.04 2.54 1.98 2.52 1.74

East Asia (Ex.Japan) 530 648 634 752 714 1,047 908 3.40 3.01 3.78 3.04 3.37 2.43China 222 284 279 337 323 494 421 4.22 3.95 4.37 3.70 3.91 2.68Hong Kong 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Chinese Taipei 37 39 38 43 40 51 48 0.88 0.22 2.16 1.29 1.79 1.85Korea 104 119 116 130 121 147 122 2.31 1.87 2.13 1.13 1.26 0.03Singapore 23 30 29 34 32 44 41 3.98 3.49 3.59 2.73 2.64 2.52Brunei 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 8.90 8.70 1.71 1.43 1.63 1.28Indonesia 53 67 66 76 72 109 96 4.00 3.62 3.15 2.46 3.68 2.91Malaysia 23 30 29 37 35 60 53 4.55 4.05 5.49 4.78 4.85 4.17Philippine 17 21 20 25 23 40 33 3.16 2.44 5.20 3.91 4.68 3.53Thailand 34 36 35 42 41 60 53 1.09 0.84 4.33 3.68 3.44 2.66Vietnam 8 13 12 18 17 33 32 8.02 6.74 8.26 8.69 6.22 6.46

World Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00Asia Total 26.82 28.04 27.69 28.90 28.07 31.74 29.30India 2.95 3.27 3.20 3.64 3.49 4.87 4.42Other Asia 0.93 1.01 0.99 1.04 0.99 1.08 1.04East Asia 22.93 23.76 23.50 24.21 23.59 25.79 23.83

East Asia (Ex.Japan) 15.29 16.87 16.58 18.05 17.35 20.89 18.76China 6.39 7.39 7.31 8.09 7.85 9.86 8.70Hong Kong 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.21 0.22 0.18 0.18Chinese Taipei 1.08 1.02 0.99 1.03 0.97 1.02 0.99Korea 2.99 3.10 3.03 3.11 2.95 2.93 2.51Singapore 0.67 0.77 0.75 0.82 0.78 0.88 0.85Brunei 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01Indonesia 1.53 1.75 1.72 1.82 1.76 2.18 1.99Malaysia 0.66 0.78 0.76 0.89 0.85 1.19 1.09Philippine 0.49 0.54 0.52 0.61 0.56 0.80 0.68Thailand 0.97 0.93 0.92 1.02 0.99 1.19 1.10Vietnam 0.24 0.34 0.32 0.43 0.41 0.66 0.66

Petoroleum Products demand (Million TOE) Annual average growth rate（％）

2006 2010 2020 2006/2000

【Share to World Total ％】

2000 2010/2006 2020/2010

20

(3) Petroleum Products Supply and CDU (Crude Distillation Unit) Operation Rate ・CDU capacities in the East Asian region will be reinforced by 1,250 thousand b/d from

2000 to 2006, by 1,450 thousand b/d in the whole Asia, so that the share of production is estimated to grow by about 1 point in each area. On the other hand, since the future refining expansion plan will be severe because of uncertain economic conditions, it is expected that the CDU capacities expansion from 2006 to 2010 will be reduced to 950 thousand b/d in the East Asian region, and reduced to 1,560 thousand b/d in the whole Asia, respectively.

・Therefore, CDU operation rate is expected to rise by 10% on the level of 90%, as compared with that in 2000. Then the share of The East Asian region and the whole Asia in the world is expected to grow respectively by about 2 point, and by 3 point in 2010 compared with that in 2000.

CDU Capacities (Both in Base Case and Low GDP Growth Case)

CDU Operation Rate (Both in Base Case and Low GDP Growth Case)

Petroleum Products Production (Base case)

(4) Demand-Supply Gap of Fuel oil (Base Case) Demand-supply gap of fuel oil (gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, jet, gas oil, heavy fuel oil) was in import position of 256 thousand b/d in 2000 in the East Asian region, it will be increased to 811 thousand b/d in 2006. Moreover it is estimated that the gap will be in extreme import position of about 1,085 thousand b/d in 2010. For each product, gasoline, kerosene, jet and gas oil will change from export position to import position in 2010, reflecting the increase of demand in traffic sector. Especially as for gas oil’s demand-and-supply balance change of about 350,000 b/d from 2000 to 2010, demand-and-supply balance change of about 370,000 b/d of China and Hong Kong serves as a key factor. Although it was assumed that the naphtha yield was increased according to the standup of the petrochemical plant in China, Taiwan, and Singapore, and the production of naphtha also increased considerably, it is predicted that the production of naphtha can not exceed the demand ,so that the import position will be continued. It is expected that a large import position will continue in heavy fuel oil because of absolute shortage of the refining equipment capacity in the East Asian region and heavy fuel oil yield falls a little in order to provide the above-mentioned products demand which increases rapidly.

(1,000b/d) 2000 Share(%) 2006 share(%) 2010 share(%) 2006/00 2010/06World 83,060 100% 86,550 100% 90,470 100% 0.7 %/y 1.1 %/yAsia 20,430 25% 21,880 25% 23,440 26% 1.1 1.7East Asia* 12,870 15% 14,120 16% 15,070 17% 1.6 1.6

(%) 2000 2006 2010 2006/00 2010/06World 88.4 90.4 93.4 0.4 %/y 0.8 %/yAsia 84.5 88.1 92.4 0.7 1.2East Asia* 81.6 86.3 91.2 0.9 1.4

(1,000b/d) 2000 Share(%) 2006 share(%) 2010 share(%) 2006/00 2010/06World 73,430 100% 78,240 100% 84,520 100% 1.1 %/y 1.9 %/yAsia 17,250 23% 19,290 25% 21,670 26% 1.9 3.0East Asia* 10,500 14% 12,180 16% 13,750 16% 2.5 3.1

21

Demand-Supply Balance of Fuel Oil in the East Asian Region (Excluding Japan)

(5) Clean Oil Share in Products Demand ・ Clean oil (gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, jet, and gas oil) share in fuel oil demand in the East Asian region is estimated to increase by 5.3 point in 2010, by 3.8 point in the whole Asia as compared with that in 2000. ・ In the Low GDP growth case, the share is almost the same compared with the Base case.

Clean Oil Share in Total Fuel Oil (Base Case)

Clean Oil Share in Total Fuel Oil (Low GDP Growth Case)

Note: (Clean oil share) ={(Gasoline + Naphtha + Kerosene/Jet + Diesel oil)/(Fuel oil total)}*100

Gasoline Naphtha Kore/Jet Gas oil Heavy Fuel Fuel Oil Total

2000 104 -118 151 183 -576 -2562006 -15 -141 -12 -65 -579 -8112010 -90 -142 -57 -170 -627 -1085

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

1000 B/D

2000 2006 2010

(%) 2000 2006 2010 2006/00 2010/06World 81.2% 83.5% 84.3% 0.5 %/y 0.2 %/yAsia 76.8% 79.6% 80.6% 0.6 0.3East Asia 73.1% 77.0% 78.4% 0.9 0.5

(％) 2000 2006 2010 2006/00 2010/06World 81.2% 83.5% 84.3% 0.5 %/y 0.2 %/yAsia 76.8% 79.7% 80.7% 0.6 0.3East Asia 73.1% 77.0% 78.5% 0.9 0.5

22

Main Assumptions (1)

Crude Oil Price

(Source) DOE, Annual energy outlook 2003. (Note) Nominal price is calcurated by the International working group using the deflators of the

Annual energy outlook 2003.

GDP Growth Rate toward 2006 and 2010 (Base Case)

(Source) Actual from Handbook of Energy&Economic Statistics 2003 , and Forecast

was made by International Working Group.

GDP Growth rate of Asian Countries (Base Case and Low GDP Growth Case)

(Source) Base case and low GDP growth case forcasted by International Working Group,

the long-term economic plans and prospects from Asian Development Bank,

the government of each country and related are regarded

Actual 2001/00 2006/00 2010/06 2006/00 2010/06

China 7.3 7.3 6.5 6.6 5.5Hong Kong 0.6 3.4 4.0 2.4 3.0Chinese Taipei -2.2 2.7 4.0 2.0 3.0Korea 3.0 5.2 5.3 4.6 4.3Singapore -2.0 3.2 5.0 2.5 4.0Brunei 3.0 2.6 2.8 1.6 1.8Indonesia 3.2 3.8 5.0 3.0 4.0Malaysia 0.4 4.3 5.5 3.7 4.5Philippines 3.2 4.1 4.9 3.4 3.9Thailand 1.8 3.8 4.6 3.1 3.6Vietnam 5.8 6.3 7.2 5.3 6.2Aavarage East Asis 3.5 5.3 5.5 4.6 4.5

Base case Low GDP growth case

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/06 06/10 10/20 00/20U.S.A. 4.40 4.26 4.20 2.52 2.70 2.65 2.62Canada 3.30 4.59 4.50 3.49 2.50 2.00 2.54Mexico 5.03 3.75 6.86 3.35 4.80 4.00 3.96Chile 3.92 -1.14 5.38 4.04 4.60 4.60 4.43Other Latin America 1.33 -0.62 3.06 2.37 3.50 3.50 3.16U.K. 2.64 2.29 3.07 2.22 2.30 2.30 2.28Germany 2.05 1.56 2.95 1.61 1.80 1.62 1.65France 3.40 2.92 3.10 2.18 2.60 1.80 2.07Italy 1.81 1.61 2.91 2.09 2.20 1.70 1.92Other OECD Europe 3.55 2.85 4.06 2.34 2.60 2.00 2.22F.S.U. -3.27 4.60 7.94 3.97 3.00 2.90 3.24Other Non OECD Europe 1.33 0.59 3.94 3.91 4.00 3.00 3.47Africa 3.15 2.57 3.21 3.73 3.80 3.70 3.73Middle East 2.02 1.25 4.84 3.21 3.30 3.20 3.22China 7.80 7.05 7.94 7.30 6.50 6.00 6.49Hong Kong -5.31 3.04 10.47 3.41 4.00 3.30 3.47Chinese Taipei 4.57 5.42 5.98 2.71 4.00 3.45 3.34Korea -6.69 10.89 8.81 5.25 5.30 3.70 4.48Singapore 0.06 5.86 9.89 3.19 5.00 3.75 3.83Brunei 1.00 2.56 2.83 2.63 2.80 2.80 2.75Indonesia -13.13 0.85 4.77 3.80 5.00 4.50 4.39Malaysia -7.36 6.08 8.30 4.33 5.50 5.00 4.90Philippines -0.58 3.40 4.01 4.10 4.90 4.25 4.34Thailand -10.77 4.22 4.31 3.80 4.60 4.50 4.31Vietnam 5.99 7.10 3.92 5.08 5.50 5.50 5.37India 5.80 4.80 5.50 6.32 7.20 6.00 6.33Other Asia 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.63 3.30 3.30 3.40Australia 5.36 4.29 1.94 2.90 2.20 2.00 2.31New Zealand 0.03 4.40 2.50 2.68 2.30 2.30 2.41

Forecast（Base Case）Actual

2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 2 0 N o m in a l P r ic e ($ /b b l) 2 7 .7 2 5 .4 3 3 .6 3 5 3 9 .8

F Y 2 0 0 1 R e a l P r ic e ($ /b b l) 2 2 .4 2 3 .3 2 4 2 4 .7 2 5 .5

23

.

Main Assumptions (2)

Outlook of World Crude Distillation Units Capacities

2000 2001 2006 2010 2000～2006 2006～2010

Ref. Outlook Outlook Increase IncreaseChina 5,000 5,217 5,800 6,400 800 600Hong Kong 0 0 0 0 0 0Chinese Taipei 925 1,220 1,220 1,220 295 0Korea 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750 0 0Singapore 1,269 1,269 1,269 1,269 0 0Brunei 9 9 9 9 0 0Indonesia 1,065 1,073 1,073 1,273 8 200Malaysia 515 515 515 515 0 0Philippines 420 420 420 420 0 0Thailand 918 918 918 918 0 0Vietnam 0 0 150 300 150 150

Easet Asia 12,871 13,391 14,122 15,072 1,252 950India 1,857 2,185 2,445 3,050 588 605Other Asia 345 425 546 546 201 0

Asia (Including Japan) 20,427 20,998 21,881 23,436 1,454 1,555Australia 848 848 848 848 0 0New Zealand 98 106 106 106 8 0

Papua New Guinea 0 0 0 0 0 0U.S.A. 16,541 16,564 17,600 18,700 1,059 1,100Canada 1,912 1,944 1,968 1,968 56 0Mexico 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,640 0 115Chile 205 205 205 205 0 0Other Latin America 6,025 6,490 6,774 6,774 749 0U.K. 1,785 1,785 1,964 1,964 179 0Germany 2,275 2,275 2,259 2,259 -16 0France 1,902 1,902 1,896 1,896 -6 0Italy 2,341 2,341 2,295 2,295 -46 0Other OECD Europe 6,131 7,056 7,151 7,151 1,020 0F.S.U. 9,762 7,728 8,040 8,040 -1,722 0Other NO-OECD Europe 2,287 2,124 2,158 2,158 -129 0Africa 3,044 3,202 3,450 3,940 406 490Middle East 5,953 6,046 6,426 7,090 473 664

Total 83,061 83,138 86,547 90,471 3,486 3,923

(Unit: 1,000 b/cd)