outlook for gas demand & supply by 2020
TRANSCRIPT
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CONFERENCE ON NATURAL GAS TRANSIT AND
STORAGE IN SOUTHEST EUROPE, 31 MAY - 1 JUNE 2002
Outlook for Gas Demand
and Supply to 2020
Dr. Fatih Birol
International Energy Agency
CONFERENCE ON NATURAL GAS TRANSIT AND
STORAGE IN SOUTHEST EUROPE, 31 MAY - 1 JUNE 2002
Outlook for Gas Demand
and Supply to 2020
Dr. Fatih Birol
International Energy Agency
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1990 1999 2010 2020
Mtoe
Power generation& heat
Res/commercial/transport
Industry
The power sector is the main driver of gas demand
growth to 2020, but other sector contribute too
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
0
500
1000
15002000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1971 2000 2010 2020
TWh
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
GasOil
Coal
Most of the increase in power generation over 2000-
2020 comes from gas
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
0
1
2
3
45
6
Coal Gas Nuclear
cen
tsperkWh
Investment O&M Fuel
Gas is most competitive fuel for power & tighter/new
emission rules will increase its edge over coal
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
bcm
Net imports
Indigenous
prodn
Most of the regions additional gas needs will have
to be imported
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
Economic activity and industrial
production Impact of liberalisation on gas prices
relative to oil products
Competitiveness of gas in powergeneration
Distributed generation - would favour gas National & EU policies...
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
Nuclear policies will determine gas
demand at the margin Diverging trends across Europe:
u Phase out agreed in Germany, Sweden &
Belgium - but how quickly?u New plant approved in Finland
u New EPR reactor design under developmentin France
u Long-term option in UK (Energy White Paperend-2002/early 2003)
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
Gas demand poised for rapid growth
Power generation is key driver Major uncertainties regarding:
u nuclear/renewables policies
u technology/costs
u gas price relative to other fuels
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights Potential New Gas Supply ChainsPotential New Gas Supply Chains
Expanding pipeline networks and new LNG projects
will promote regional & global gas market integration
North America
Latin America
Europe
FSU
Africa Middle East
Asia/Pacific
Pipeline LNG
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
Ultimate remaining resources (including
proven reserves) are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm
World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001
56.7
58.5
6.4
11.6
14.9
7.7
8.2
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russia Iran Qatar Saudi UAE Iraq Turkmen Kazakh Uzbek Kuw ait Azer
Rserves(tcm)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Reserves/p
roductionratio(yea
rs)
Reserves R/P ratio
Russia and Iran between them hold around half of
world proven reserves of conventional natural gas
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WorldEnergyOutlook2001
Insights
-10 10 30 50 70
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Iraq
Bahrain
Oman
UAE
Iran
BcmInland consumption Net exports
Russia is by the far the largest producer (404 bcm) and
net exporter (180 bcm - entirely to Europe)
NOT INCLUDING RUSSIA
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Insights
All Caspian/Gulf producers could potentially supply more gas to
Turkey and beyond but costs vary
URKEYT
YRI AS
EORGIAG
EBANONL
SRAELI
ORDANJ
RAQI
OLDOVAM
OMANIAR
ERM ANYG
RANCEF
PAINS
LGERIAAYBIAL
GYPTE
KRAIN EU
USTRI AA
ROATIACLOVANI AS
TALYI
REECEG
OUGOSY .
OS
ERZ
B . &
H .
YROMFLBANIAA
WITS .
ELGIUMB
UXL .
ETHN .NITED
INGDOM
U
K
Z
EP
C .
R .LOVAKI AS
ULGARI AB
UNISIAT
From
Volga-Urals
From
Caspian
FromAzerbaijan,Turkmenistan
&Iran
LNG
from Qatarand other Middle East
From
Iraq
From
Qatar
AUDI RABIAS A
UNGARYH
OLANDP
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Insights ($/Mbtu)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
TURKMENISTAN (via Tky/Bulg./Rom./Hung./Aust.)
IRAN (v ia Tky/Bulg./Rom./Hung./Aust.)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
IRAQ (direct)
AZERBIJAN (via Georgia)
IRAN (direct)
TURKMENISTAN (via Iran)
RUSSIA - CASPIAN (Bluestream expansion)
QATAR (via S.Arabia/Jordan/Syria)
Transport Production Transit fees
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
LIBYA (direct subsea)
QATAR (LNG through Suez
Canal)
Delivered to German Border
Delivered to Italy
Delivered to Turkey
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Insights
Several low-cost supply options to Turkey
But geopolitical risks/market barriers in producer &transit countries
Surplus Turkish-bought gas will have to competeagainst LNG & piped gas from N.Africa, Russiaand Norway in S & W Europe
Caspian and Gulf important options to diversifysupplies to SE Europe