outlook for the texas economy - texas a&m university · 2019-10-11 · houston and san...

LUIS B. TORRESRESEARCH ECONOMIST

WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSOCIATE

T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

2 0 4 6

Outlook for theTexas Economy

PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE

AUGUST 2019 DATA

1

About this Report ................................................................................................................................. 3 August 2019 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 4 Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................. 8

Gross State Product ........................................................................................................................ 8 Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index .............................................................................. 8 Major Metros Business Cycle Index ............................................................................................... 9 Consumer Confidence Index .......................................................................................................... 9

Financial Activity ................................................................................................................................ 10 30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .......................................................................... 10 Texas Mortgage Applications ....................................................................................................... 10

Housing ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................ 11 Residential Construction Coincident Indicator ............................................................................. 11

Energy ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................. 12 Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count .............................................................................. 12

Employment ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Unemployment Rate .................................................................................................................... 13 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................ 13 Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................. 14 Labor Force Participation Rate ..................................................................................................... 14 Real Personal Income Per Capita ................................................................................................. 15 Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ...................................................................................... 15 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................... 16 Employment Growth Rate ............................................................................................................ 16 Major Metros Employment Growth Rate .................................................................................... 17

Manufacturing .................................................................................................................................... 18 Manufacturing Employment ........................................................................................................ 18 Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................. 18 Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings................................................................................... 19 Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................... 19 Manufacturing Outlook Survey .................................................................................................... 20

Construction ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Texas Construction Values ........................................................................................................... 21 Major Metros Total Construction Values ..................................................................................... 21 Construction Employment ........................................................................................................... 22 Construction Employee Hourly Earnings ...................................................................................... 22

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Services ............................................................................................................................................... 23 Services Sector Outlook Survey .................................................................................................... 23 Texas Retail Sector ....................................................................................................................... 23 CPI Inflation Rates ........................................................................................................................ 24 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................. 24

Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Exports (All Commodities) ............................................................................................................ 25 Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................. 25 Crude Oil Exports .......................................................................................................................... 26 Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar .................................................................................... 26 Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................. 27

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Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and trends. All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to [email protected].

Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva

Data current as of October 4, 2019

© 2019, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

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Summary1

Texas’ economy remained healthy in the longest U.S. economic expansion on record. Payroll growth slowed, but unemployment rates hovered at historical lows. Hourly earnings failed to make positive headway after adjusting for inflation; second-quarter real income per capita, however, increased. Retail sales improved, but overall perceptions were tainted by political and trade-related concerns. Energy prices remained low amid record-breaking production and lowered expectations of global demand in 2020. Escalating trade tensions, political uncertainty, and the slowing world economy continue to be the largest headwinds to the current business-cycle expansion.

Economic activity stabilized at 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) as indicated by the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business-Cycle Index. Steady payroll expansions in Austin and Dallas held the indices above the statewide measure at 7.9 and 6.4 percent SAAR, respectively. Houston and San Antonio’s metrics remained strong at 4.1 and 3.3 percent, respectively. The Fort Worth index slowed as employment contracted but registered 3.9 percent growth.

The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle) stumbled amid falling oil prices and some weakness in national economic data, suggesting slower growth in the coming months. The Texas Consumer Confidence Index ticked up for the third consecutive month, hovering just beneath record levels reached in October 2018 before oil prices slid at year-end. Increased tariffs and political gridlock in Washington, however, may pull sentiments down in the coming months.

Continued concerns about global economic growth and trade uncertainty pulled interest rates down for the tenth consecutive month. Long-term rates remained lower than those for short-term instruments, inverting the yield curve and sustaining talks of a recession. Economic fundamentals at the state and national level, however, are healthy and stable. Interest rates could fall further following the Federal Reserve’s second rate cut of the year in September. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 40 basis points to a three-year low of 1.6 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate inched down to 3.6 percent. Texans capitalized on lower rates, pushing mortgage applications for home purchases up 21.6 percent year to date (YTD). Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, have more than doubled since year-end.

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

5

Texas housing sales increased 1 percent in August, reaching a record-breaking 30,421 homes sold through a Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, flattened as industry employment growth slowed and construction values stalled. The Residential Construction Leading Index, however, rose to its highest level since the Great Recession amid falling interest rates and upward-trending building permits. This suggests higher levels of construction in the coming months. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)

The average West Texas intermediate crude oil spot price dipped below $55 per barrel, falling within $3.50 of the December trough. An attack on a Saudi oil facility in August pushed prices up temporarily, but ample supply from the U.S. prevented a prolonged price spike. Disruptions in the Middle East are less likely to affect global prices in the long-term due to stable American output. Texas crude oil production exceeded five million barrels per day in July2 although the active rig count fell to 449. On the natural gas front, built-up inventories restricted prices. The Henry Hub spot price fell to $2.19 per million British thermal units (BTU). In the Permian Basin, the West Texas Waha spot price remained low but ticked up amid anticipation of the Gulf Coast Express pipeline beginning commercial in-service in September.

Texas nonfarm employment added 18,200 jobs in August, the smallest monthly change since January. Moreover, July gains were revised down from 35,200 to 27,200. The updates reduced the Dallas Fed’s annual employment growth projection from 2.6 to 2.3 percent, on par with last year’s growth. Hiring slowed, but overall labor market conditions remained strong. The unemployment rate posted 3.4 percent for the third consecutive month. On the metropolitan level, joblessness remained at post-recessionary lows. Austin maintained the lowest unemployment rate at 2.6 percent, followed by San Antonio at 3 percent. Unemployment in DFW and Houston stabilized at 3.1 and 3.6 percent, respectively. The state’s labor force participation was unchanged at 63.7 percent, even as 13,500 Texas entered the market, pushing the labor force to its highest level in series history. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to a YTD low of 54,800, corroborating the healthy labor market.

Recently released second-quarter data revealed a 3.2 percent year-over-year (YOY) increase in Texas’ real income per capita. The Lone Star State ranked first in the nation in terms of annual growth. Gains in the professional/scientific/technical services, finance/insurance, and energy sectors spearheaded the state’s largest improvement since 1Q2018.

Texas’ real private hourly earnings, however, fell YOY for the third straight month. Dallas remained the highest-paying metro at nominal wages of $28.83 per hour, but real earnings registered a 1.7 percent YOY decrease. Austin ($28.82) extended a steep decline, erasing inflation-adjusted gains from a two-and-a-half year climb between 2016 and 2018. Houston’s nominal wages increased to $27.36 per hour but contracted 2.4 percent after accounting for inflation. On the bright side, Fort

2 The release of crude oil production typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2120.pdf

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Worth ($26.99) and San Antonio ($24.42) real earnings extended upward trends, increasing 1.6 and 0.8 percent YOY, respectively.

Dallas led the state with 8,100 jobs created as professional/business services payrolls increased 6.2 percent YTD. All subsectors in the trade/transportation/utilities industry across North Texas, however, registered losses in August. Fort Worth shed a total of 1,200 jobs amid additional contractions in professional/business services. The sector comprised 12 percent of the workforce as recently as 2014 but has since shrunk to 10 percent. In Dallas, professional/business services accounts for 20 percent of the workforce. Houston employment netted 5,300 jobs as gains in education/health and other services offset layoffs in trade and leisure/hospitality. San Antonio added 5,000 positions, the largest monthly increase in three years as leisure/hospitality and financial services recovered from losses in the first half of the year. In Austin, increased hiring in government and professional/business services contributed heavily to the metro’s 2,900-job gain.

Texas’ goods-producing payrolls decelerated, adding only 1,100 positions in August. Falling oil prices and industry-wide budget constraints weighed on Houston’s energy sector. On the other hand, construction employment increased by 2,200 jobs, largely due to acceleration in San Antonio. Real hourly construction earnings, however, declined YOY for the seventh straight month. This may be due to employers hiring more low-skilled workers as the demand for higher-paid tradesmen remain largely unfilled, pulling the average wage down. Total construction values stabilized after trending down for a year following a 3Q2018 peak in activity. Increased office building and hospital construction in DFW and San Antonio bolstered nonresidential activity. On the residential side, elevated apartment investment in Austin and North Texas offset a continued single-family decline. Single-family private construction values perpetuated a year-long downward trend except in San Antonio.

Texas’ manufacturers added just 700 jobs in August after data revisions bumped up July’s newly created positions from 3,500 to 4,100. Expansions in Houston and Fort Worth nondurable-goods manufacturing offset contractions in Dallas and San Antonio’s durable-goods sectors.

Amid a weakening in the national industry data, real hourly manufacturing earnings decreased YOY on a statewide basis for the fourth consecutive month. At the metro level, only Fort Worth wages registered positive growth. The Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Outlook Survey corroborated these trends as the employment index slowed with less than a fifth of respondents reporting increased hiring while fewer respondents reported an increase in the number of hours worked. More survey participants, however, reported rising wages and benefits, contradicting the data. The company outlook and general business activity indices regained positive territory after remaining negative for three months; however, ongoing trade tensions sustained outlook uncertainty.

Employment growth in Texas’ service-providing sector slowed but remained stable, adding 17,100 new positions. Health care/social assistance continued to expand at a rapid clip while administrative/waste management/remediation services was the largest detractor from growth. The Dallas Fed’s Service Sector Outlook Survey indicated positive trends in employment and hours

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worked, although revenue growth slowed. Outlook uncertainty remained strong amid political and trade-related concerns.

Texas retail employment declined after a four-month expansion. Increased real income levels, however, boosted retail sales3 2.7 percent after accounting for inflation. The Dallas Fed’s Retail Outlook Survey revealed a contraction in sales, employment, and hours worked. Reports varied widely with a fifth of respondents experiencing declines and another fifth experiencing stronger sales activity. Retailers’ perceptions of activity extended an eight-month downward trend.

Decreased energy prices and slower consumer spending pulled the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) below 1.8 percent YOY. Core inflation, however, reached the Fed’s 2 percent benchmark and trended upward, propelled by rising housing and medical costs. Prices may rise further this year as additional tariffs on consumer goods take effect. Houston’s CPI accelerated 1.4 percent YOY as local transportation costs slowed a downward slide.

Although the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar3 inched up, Texas’ real commodity exports rose 1.7 percent to a record-high ahead of the implementation of new tariffs. The Lone Star State’s activity accounted for 20 percent of the national total. Manufacturing exports increased 2.9 percent YTD in real terms while crude oil exports climbed 16.2 percent to reach an all-time high. A jump in energy-related exports to China pushed total exports to the country up to its highest value since July 2018. August levels, however, were more than 25 percent below the year-ago comparison. China’s share of outgoing shipments rose to 4.9 percent but remained fourth worldwide behind Mexico (33.4 percent), Canada (8.6 percent), and South Korea (5.5 percent).

3 The release of Texas retail sales and trade-weighted value of the dollar data typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

8

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Business Cycle IndexLeading Index (Right Axis)

-13.0

-8.0

-3.0

2.0

7.0

12.0

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Business Cycle Index (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046-3.pdf

https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/Documents/Articles/2046.pdf

9

Note: Trend-cycle Component. Source: Conference Board

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Texas

United States

Consumer Confidence Index (Index Jan 2011 = 100)

10

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mortgage Bond

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Refinance Purchase

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield (Percent)

Texas Mortgage Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

11

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-cycle component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index

Residential Construction Coincident Indicator (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)


12

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count. Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Crude Oil

Natural Gas(Right Axis)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)

Number of Operating Rigs

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count (Count)

(Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)

$/Barrel Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices

($) $/million BTU



13

Note: Seasonally adjusted. August 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.

Source: Department of Labor

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)



14

Major Metros Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Note: Seasonally adjusted. August 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio

62

63

64

65

66

67

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Labor Force Participation Rate (Percent)



15

Note: Seasonally adjusted quarterly annualized rate. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted. August 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States

Texas

Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Real Personal Income Per Capita (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)


16


Note: Seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average. August 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)



17


-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)


18



-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio

Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)



19



-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston–The Woodlands–Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)





20

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Index)


21

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

Note: Inflation adjusted trend-cycle component. Source: Dodge Analytics

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Residential Non-residential Total Value

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington


San Antonio-New Braunfels

Texas Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Major Metros Total Construction Values (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

22

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. August 2019 is preliminary. For more information, see Employment Growth Rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

United States Texas

Construction Employment (Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)

Construction Employee Hourly Earnings (Year-over-Year Percent Change)




23

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale with Texas index. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management.

Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector. Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Dallas Federal Reserve BankRetail Survey

Retail Sales(Right Axis)

Services Sector Outlook Survey (Index)

Texas Retail Sector (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Index Year-over-Year Percent Change



24

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are included in the graph above. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States


Core Inflation

-10

-7

-4

-1

2

5

8

11

14

17

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Food and Beverages Housing

Transportation Medical

CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

CPI Inflation Rates (Year-over-Year Percent Change)


25

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States

Texas

Exports (All Commodities) (Year-over-Year Percent Change)

Manufacturing Exports (Year-over-Year Percent Change)



26

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Crude Oil Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2016 2017 2018 2019

United States

Texas

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

United States Texas

Crude Oil Exports (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar (Index Jan 2007 = 100)




27

Note: Trend-cycle component. For more information, see Exports. Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Brazil Canada China South Korea Mexico (Right axis)

Texas Exports by Country (Percent)


i

ADVISORY COMMITTEE

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

TROY ALLEY, JR. DeSoto

RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca

DOUG JENNINGS Fort Worth

BESA MARTIN Boerne

ALVIN COLLINS, CHAIRMAN Andrews

JJ CLEMENCE, VICE CHAIRMAN Sugar Land

TED NELSON HoustonDOUG ROBERTS AustinC. CLARK WELDER FredericksburgJAN FITE-MILLER, EX-OFFICIO Dallas