outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · outlook 2017 alfa • alfa reported 4q16 mixed results in a...

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This presentation contains forward-looking information based on numerous variables and assumptions that are inherently uncertain. They involve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and financial market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to forecast accurately. Accordingly, results are likely to vary from those set forth in this presentation. Copyright © 2017 ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution is forbidden without the prior written consent of ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. Outlook 2017 March, 2017

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Page 1: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

This presentation contains forward-looking information based on numerous variables and assumptions that are inherently uncertain. Theyinvolve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and financial market conditions and future businessdecisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to forecast accurately. Accordingly, results are likely to vary from those set forth in thispresentation. Copyright © 2017 ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution is forbidden without the prior writtenconsent of ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V.

Outlook 2017March, 2017

Page 2: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

ALFA

• ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment – slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

• EBITDA down 1% y-o-y to U.S. $540 million, excluding 4Q15 extraordinary items. Key factors explaining the result were:

» Strong margins at Nemak and defensive performance at Sigma despite adverse FX

» Alpek affected by normalization of polypropylene and lower margins in polyester

» Government spending cuts and FX impacting Axtel

• Capex of U.S. $450 million, as all business groups continued with their investment projects

• Strong financial condition:

» Net Debt to EBITDA of 2.5x

» Interest Coverage of 6.6x

546

101

647

580

642

560 540

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

2

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTSEBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)

Extraordinary items

Page 3: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

Sigma

3

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS

161

126

287

163 169 166 166

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)

Extraordinary items

• 4% volume growth benefiting from Europe and Mexico operations

• Prices in dollars of key raw materials expected to remain low – but savings offset by Mx Peso depreciation

• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $166 million, up 3% y-o-y, excluding 4Q15’s U.S. $126 million non-recurring gain

» Mexican EBITDA margin ~13% despite MXP depreciation

» Campofrio showed improvement despite new plant not on stream yet

• Construction of new plant in Spain completed in November

• New 7-yr EUR €600 million bond issued to prepay shorter maturity debt

Page 4: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

SIGMA

4

REFRIGERATED FOODS 37% AND 31% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16

Outlook

• Stable volumes across all regions

• Raw material prices expected to remain low

» Slight increase in fresh milk in Mexico

• Price increases equal to inflation

» In Mx, current price set to sustain margins @$21.5 MXN/USD

• New plant in Campofrío entering commercial production

» Ramp up through 1H17

• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $671 million

Page 5: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

Alpek

5

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS

143

171

208

157

133

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $133 million, down 7% y-o-y

reflecting the normalization of PP margins and softer polyester margins

• Polyester affected by

» Lower oil/feedstock price environment

» Force majeure plant stoppages due to Hurricane Matthew

• Polypropylene margins decreased to 18 c/lb from 30 c/lb in 1Q16 – still higher than historical levels

• Record EBITDA in Plastics and Chemicals for full year 2016

Page 6: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

ALPEK

6

• Volume growth ~4%

• Polyester margins still under pressure by oversupply in Asia

» Imports affecting NAFTA region

• Polypropylene margins stabilizing at ~18 c/lb

» Impact of ~U.S. $90 million compared to record-high 2016 (avg price 25 c/lb)

• Investment projects moving forward:

» M&G Corpus Christi project advancing as planned; plant to come on stream by end 2017

» Altamira Cogen Project underway – capacity 350 MWs. Capex of U.S. $350 million

• Suape acquisition (Brazil) going through approvals

• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $502 million

PETROCHEMICALS31% AND 25% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16

Outlook

Page 7: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

Nemak

7

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS

165

209221

182 186

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• 4Q16 EBITDA up 13% y-o-y to U.S. $186 million.

EBITDA per unit of U.S. $15.8

• Lower volume mainly due to lower sales in NA as FCA reduced production of mid-size vehicles

• Higher EBITDA due to improved sales mix of higher value-added products and good operating performance across all regions

• New contracts worth US $225 million in annual revenues, 60% is incremental business

• Acquisition of Cevher Döküm (Turkey) in November

• A new, U.S. $125 million HPDC plant in Mexico became operational in 2016 – ramp up 1Q17

» For engine blocks and structural components

Page 8: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

NEMAK

8

Outlook

• Expecting 2017 volume of 51 million units, 3% over 2016

» NA stable at record levels

» Moderate growth in Europe

• Eight programs worth U.S. $270 million/yr for premium European OEMs reaching production in 2017 and 2018

• A new U.S. $55 million HPDC plant in Slovakia for structural parts – ready towards end of 2017

• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $802 million

» Margin: U.S. $15.5/unit

HI-TECH ALUMINUM AUTOPARTS26% AND 34% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16

Page 9: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

Axtel

9

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS

13

73

48

6367

46

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• Pro forma Sales and EBITDA declined 29% and

37% in 4Q16 mainly due to lack of projects in the government segment

» FY2016 Reported EBITDA increased 36% due to the merger

• Post-merger integration:

» One year after merger, synergies have reached a run-rate of Ps. $1,000 million

• 100% of original plan and sooner than expected

• Altán Redes, a consortium of which Axtel is part, won the biding for Red Compartida

» The rights to exploit the 700 MHz band for the creation of a 4G wholesale network

Extraordinary items

Page 10: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

AXTEL

10

Outlook

• Stable performance vs 2016

• Capex of U.S. $175 million

» 60% dedicated to enterprise segment; 25% to network expansion and 15% to FTTH

• Considering divesting non-strategic assets to provide financial flexibility

» A portfolio of towers mostly integrated by sites from the former Alestra

• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $232 million

IT & TELECOMM5% AND 9% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16

Page 11: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

Newpek

11

4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS

37

-2 -21

12

4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• No new wells drilled during the quarter

» Lower production due to natural decline of producing wells

» 628 wells

» Production of 7.2 MBOEPD

• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $9 million

• Operations in Mexico scaled back; less wells in production today

» From 138 to 128 wells

» Production of 3.5 MBOEPD

Page 12: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

NEWPEK

12

Outlook

• Oil price volatility

• Considering limited drilling in EFS

• Announced possible divestment of assets in the U.S. and Peru

• Migration of CIEP contracts into production-sharing agreements moving slowly

• Mx Government announced new rounds of auctions to be held during 2Q17

• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $7 million

HYDROCARBONS1% AND 0% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16

Page 13: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017

ALFA

• ALFA expects EBITDA of $2.2 billion in 2017

» Down 5% vs. 2016

• Healthy Financial Condition

» Low Debt maturities

» Stable financial ratios

• Capital Expenditures of U.S. $1.1 billion in 2017

» Majority of funds to be utilized by Nemak, Sigma and Alpek

» Projects include:

One new plant at Nemak

New co-gen facility at Alpek

13

OUTLOOK 2017 - GENERAL OVERVIEW

2,210

210*

1,623

1,8541,9152,040

2,420 2,3222,161

11 12 13 14 15 16 17e

EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)

*Extraordinary items

Page 14: Outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · OUTLOOK 2017 ALFA • ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment –slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates

OUTLOOK 2017 14

ALFA 2017 Guidance (U.S. $ Millions)

REVENUES EBITDA CAPEX

2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e

ALFA 15,756 16,245 2,322 2,161 1,454 1,098

Sigma 5,698 5,893 663 671 328 227

Alpek 4,838 5,069 669 502 320 238

Nemak 4,257 4,382 798 802 541 430

Axtel1 736 738 225 232 210 176

Newpek 107 55 9 7 25 24

Assumptions:Mx GDP growth: +1.4% USA GDP growth: +1.5% Avg. exchange rate Mx Peso to US$: $21.5 Avg. exchange rate Euro to US$: $1.10 Avg. oil price (Brent): U.S. $55/barrel

ALFAGUIDANCE 2017

*Guidance as of February 15, 2017

1 2016 incorporates Axtel after merger date (February 15)