outlook 2017 · 2017. 3. 17. · outlook 2017 alfa • alfa reported 4q16 mixed results in a...
TRANSCRIPT
This presentation contains forward-looking information based on numerous variables and assumptions that are inherently uncertain. Theyinvolve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and financial market conditions and future businessdecisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to forecast accurately. Accordingly, results are likely to vary from those set forth in thispresentation. Copyright © 2017 ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. All rights reserved. Reproduction and distribution is forbidden without the prior writtenconsent of ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V.
Outlook 2017March, 2017
OUTLOOK 2017
ALFA
• ALFA reported 4Q16 mixed results in a challenging economic environment – slow growth, volatile oil prices and exchange rates
• EBITDA down 1% y-o-y to U.S. $540 million, excluding 4Q15 extraordinary items. Key factors explaining the result were:
» Strong margins at Nemak and defensive performance at Sigma despite adverse FX
» Alpek affected by normalization of polypropylene and lower margins in polyester
» Government spending cuts and FX impacting Axtel
• Capex of U.S. $450 million, as all business groups continued with their investment projects
• Strong financial condition:
» Net Debt to EBITDA of 2.5x
» Interest Coverage of 6.6x
546
101
647
580
642
560 540
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
2
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTSEBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)
Extraordinary items
OUTLOOK 2017
Sigma
3
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS
161
126
287
163 169 166 166
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)
Extraordinary items
• 4% volume growth benefiting from Europe and Mexico operations
• Prices in dollars of key raw materials expected to remain low – but savings offset by Mx Peso depreciation
• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $166 million, up 3% y-o-y, excluding 4Q15’s U.S. $126 million non-recurring gain
» Mexican EBITDA margin ~13% despite MXP depreciation
» Campofrio showed improvement despite new plant not on stream yet
• Construction of new plant in Spain completed in November
• New 7-yr EUR €600 million bond issued to prepay shorter maturity debt
OUTLOOK 2017
SIGMA
4
REFRIGERATED FOODS 37% AND 31% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16
Outlook
• Stable volumes across all regions
• Raw material prices expected to remain low
» Slight increase in fresh milk in Mexico
• Price increases equal to inflation
» In Mx, current price set to sustain margins @$21.5 MXN/USD
• New plant in Campofrío entering commercial production
» Ramp up through 1H17
• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $671 million
OUTLOOK 2017
Alpek
5
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS
143
171
208
157
133
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $133 million, down 7% y-o-y
reflecting the normalization of PP margins and softer polyester margins
• Polyester affected by
» Lower oil/feedstock price environment
» Force majeure plant stoppages due to Hurricane Matthew
• Polypropylene margins decreased to 18 c/lb from 30 c/lb in 1Q16 – still higher than historical levels
• Record EBITDA in Plastics and Chemicals for full year 2016
OUTLOOK 2017
ALPEK
6
• Volume growth ~4%
• Polyester margins still under pressure by oversupply in Asia
» Imports affecting NAFTA region
• Polypropylene margins stabilizing at ~18 c/lb
» Impact of ~U.S. $90 million compared to record-high 2016 (avg price 25 c/lb)
• Investment projects moving forward:
» M&G Corpus Christi project advancing as planned; plant to come on stream by end 2017
» Altamira Cogen Project underway – capacity 350 MWs. Capex of U.S. $350 million
• Suape acquisition (Brazil) going through approvals
• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $502 million
PETROCHEMICALS31% AND 25% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16
Outlook
OUTLOOK 2017
Nemak
7
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS
165
209221
182 186
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• 4Q16 EBITDA up 13% y-o-y to U.S. $186 million.
EBITDA per unit of U.S. $15.8
• Lower volume mainly due to lower sales in NA as FCA reduced production of mid-size vehicles
• Higher EBITDA due to improved sales mix of higher value-added products and good operating performance across all regions
• New contracts worth US $225 million in annual revenues, 60% is incremental business
• Acquisition of Cevher Döküm (Turkey) in November
• A new, U.S. $125 million HPDC plant in Mexico became operational in 2016 – ramp up 1Q17
» For engine blocks and structural components
OUTLOOK 2017
NEMAK
8
Outlook
• Expecting 2017 volume of 51 million units, 3% over 2016
» NA stable at record levels
» Moderate growth in Europe
• Eight programs worth U.S. $270 million/yr for premium European OEMs reaching production in 2017 and 2018
• A new U.S. $55 million HPDC plant in Slovakia for structural parts – ready towards end of 2017
• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $802 million
» Margin: U.S. $15.5/unit
HI-TECH ALUMINUM AUTOPARTS26% AND 34% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16
OUTLOOK 2017
Axtel
9
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS
13
73
48
6367
46
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• Pro forma Sales and EBITDA declined 29% and
37% in 4Q16 mainly due to lack of projects in the government segment
» FY2016 Reported EBITDA increased 36% due to the merger
• Post-merger integration:
» One year after merger, synergies have reached a run-rate of Ps. $1,000 million
• 100% of original plan and sooner than expected
• Altán Redes, a consortium of which Axtel is part, won the biding for Red Compartida
» The rights to exploit the 700 MHz band for the creation of a 4G wholesale network
Extraordinary items
OUTLOOK 2017
AXTEL
10
Outlook
• Stable performance vs 2016
• Capex of U.S. $175 million
» 60% dedicated to enterprise segment; 25% to network expansion and 15% to FTTH
• Considering divesting non-strategic assets to provide financial flexibility
» A portfolio of towers mostly integrated by sites from the former Alestra
• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $232 million
IT & TELECOMM5% AND 9% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16
OUTLOOK 2017
Newpek
11
4Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS
37
-2 -21
12
4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)• No new wells drilled during the quarter
» Lower production due to natural decline of producing wells
» 628 wells
» Production of 7.2 MBOEPD
• 4Q16 EBITDA of U.S. $9 million
• Operations in Mexico scaled back; less wells in production today
» From 138 to 128 wells
» Production of 3.5 MBOEPD
OUTLOOK 2017
NEWPEK
12
Outlook
• Oil price volatility
• Considering limited drilling in EFS
• Announced possible divestment of assets in the U.S. and Peru
• Migration of CIEP contracts into production-sharing agreements moving slowly
• Mx Government announced new rounds of auctions to be held during 2Q17
• EBITDA 2017e: U.S. $7 million
HYDROCARBONS1% AND 0% OF ALFA’S REVENUES AND EBITDA IN 4Q16
OUTLOOK 2017
ALFA
• ALFA expects EBITDA of $2.2 billion in 2017
» Down 5% vs. 2016
• Healthy Financial Condition
» Low Debt maturities
» Stable financial ratios
• Capital Expenditures of U.S. $1.1 billion in 2017
» Majority of funds to be utilized by Nemak, Sigma and Alpek
» Projects include:
One new plant at Nemak
New co-gen facility at Alpek
13
OUTLOOK 2017 - GENERAL OVERVIEW
2,210
210*
1,623
1,8541,9152,040
2,420 2,3222,161
11 12 13 14 15 16 17e
EBITDA(U.S. $ Millions)
*Extraordinary items
OUTLOOK 2017 14
ALFA 2017 Guidance (U.S. $ Millions)
REVENUES EBITDA CAPEX
2016 2017e 2016 2017e 2016 2017e
ALFA 15,756 16,245 2,322 2,161 1,454 1,098
Sigma 5,698 5,893 663 671 328 227
Alpek 4,838 5,069 669 502 320 238
Nemak 4,257 4,382 798 802 541 430
Axtel1 736 738 225 232 210 176
Newpek 107 55 9 7 25 24
Assumptions:Mx GDP growth: +1.4% USA GDP growth: +1.5% Avg. exchange rate Mx Peso to US$: $21.5 Avg. exchange rate Euro to US$: $1.10 Avg. oil price (Brent): U.S. $55/barrel
ALFAGUIDANCE 2017
*Guidance as of February 15, 2017
1 2016 incorporates Axtel after merger date (February 15)