othree chemistry mm5 model diagnostic and sensitivity analysis results central california ozone...

OThree Chemistry

MM5 Model Diagnostic andMM5 Model Diagnostic andSensitivity Analysis ResultsSensitivity Analysis Results

Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 1

T. W. TescheDennis McNally

4 November 2003

OThree Chemistry ContentsContents

MM5 Performance Comparisons Between Run 1 (eta.mpp) Run 2 (eta.dry.mpp), Run 3 (eta.dry.rrtm.mpp)

Spatial Mean Temperature Time Series Plots Vector Mean Surface Wind Speed Time Series Plots Statistical Tables for Surface Mixing Ratio, 2 m Temps, and

Wind Speeds

HY-SPLIT 48-hr Back Trajectories from Peak Ozone Monitors on 17-20 Sept ’00

Current MM5 Diagnostic Questions

OThree Chemistry

Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for 16-21 Sept ‘00Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for 16-21 Sept ‘00

Daily Maximum Observed 1- hr Ozone

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

09/1

7/20

03

09/1

8/20

03

09/1

9/20

03

09/2

0/20

03

09/2

1/20

03

Max

O

zone

, pp

b

Date Day Station Peak O3 Hour Lat Long Gridx Gridy 02 DV17-Sep 261 Edison 125 1500 35.350 -118.863 131.7 29.4 14118-Sep 262 Parlier 165 1500 36.600 -119.508 116.7 63.2 15119-Sep 263 Arvin 145 1500 35.208 -118.784 133.2 25.7 14220-Sep 264 Clovis 135 1500 36.819 -119.716 13721-Sep 265

Table 1. Location of Maximum 1- hr Ozone for the 16- 21 Sept '00 Episode.

OThree Chemistry

Back Trajectory Plot on 17 Sept ‘00Back Trajectory Plot on 17 Sept ‘00

48-hr Back Trajectory from Edison Monitor where peak of 125 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry


48-hr Back Trajectory from Parlier Monitor where peak of 165 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry


48-hr Back Trajectory from Arvin Monitor where peak of 145 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry


48-hr Back Trajectory from Clovis Monitor where peak of 135 ppb ozone was measured at 1500 PST (2300 UTC)

OThree Chemistry

Spatial Mean 2m TempsSpatial Mean 2m Temps

MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

OThree Chemistry


MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

OThree Chemistry


MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.rrtm.mpp

OThree Chemistry Predicted and Observed 2m Predicted and Observed 2m Temperatures Temperatures


OThree Chemistry

Vector Mean Wind SpeedVector Mean Wind Speed

MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.mpp

OThree Chemistry


MM5 Sensitivity Simulation: Eta.dry.mpp

OThree Chemistry



OThree Chemistry

MM5 Surface Winds on 17 Sept ‘00MM5 Surface Winds on 17 Sept ‘00


Predicted and observed surface winds at 1500 PST on 18 Sept ’00 when a 1-hr peak ozone concentration of 165 ppb was measured at Parlier.

OThree Chemistry

MM5 Temperature Performance MM5 Temperature Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00

EpisodeEpisode

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P15-Sep 259 -12.49 -12.22 -8.98 -6.95 12.48 7.37 1.12 14.00 2.92 12.62 46.11 42.9016-Sep 260 -11.96 -10.06 -8.58 -6.75 10.92 9.52 1.27 16.18 3.10 13.28 45.00 41.9617-Sep 261 -15.08 -13.56 -11.95 -3.21 9.55 7.56 0.40 17.03 3.12 14.91 42.78 41.4118-Sep 262 -16.21 -15.00 -12.47 -4.22 10.37 7.00 0.30 16.95 3.19 15.85 42.22 40.4419-Sep 263 -17.12 -17.12 -8.13 -6.92 14.54 9.09 0.99 17.60 3.49 18.12 43.89 40.8520-Sep 264 -18.86 -17.12 -9.60 -7.38 14.18 9.25 1.39 18.24 3.81 19.72 43.89 40.6521-Sep 265 -22.99 -21.94 -19.77 -5.60 17.43 7.34 0.96 15.59 3.02 13.66 42.22 39.86Mean 999 -16.39 -15.29 -11.35 -5.86 12.78 8.16 0.92 16.51 3.24 15.45 43.73 41.15

12 Km Grid Domain

Table 1. Temperature MPE for the 15- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.mpp).

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P13-Sep 257 -11.54 -11.08 -11.20 1.99 8.86 2.36 0.10 9.96 2.19 7.95 40.00 40.8014-Sep 258 -9.21 -7.94 -4.84 8.25 8.93 -0.19 -0.49 12.04 2.50 9.83 38.89 42.1015-Sep 259 -4.08 -4.08 -0.77 7.28 7.23 5.20 0.76 9.44 1.74 5.36 39.44 42.3116-Sep 260 -11.56 -10.92 -9.37 0.84 6.78 5.87 0.68 11.45 2.01 6.87 41.67 42.0217-Sep 261 -18.18 -14.93 -15.68 -1.61 8.41 6.09 0.01 15.03 2.42 9.32 42.22 41.5418-Sep 262 -7.09 -5.82 -6.85 2.45 8.18 2.86 -0.36 13.92 2.71 10.95 40.56 41.5619-Sep 263 -12.94 -12.94 -12.00 -1.16 10.49 4.92 0.17 13.46 2.64 11.17 41.67 41.1920-Sep 264 -13.12 -12.94 -12.12 -3.05 9.91 2.16 -0.18 12.72 2.76 11.58 41.67 40.4021-Sep 265 -13.29 -12.54 -12.24 -5.82 15.10 3.69 0.34 12.38 2.45 9.36 40.00 37.67Mean 999 -11.22 -10.35 -9.45 1.02 9.32 3.66 0.11 12.27 2.38 9.16 42.22 42.31

4 Km Grid Domain

Table 1. Temperature MPE for the 13- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.rrtm.mpp).

OThree Chemistry

MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance MM5 Mixing Ratio Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00

EpisodeEpisode

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P15-Sep 259 -26.69 -21.86 -15.17 -11.43 13.56 1.89 -0.27 18.66 1.51 4.02 17.42 15.4316-Sep 260 -56.33 -53.79 -43.64 -40.22 16.63 -0.73 -0.52 19.27 1.61 5.44 24.39 14.5817-Sep 261 -51.73 -47.14 -37.75 -31.32 19.31 0.54 -0.40 21.20 1.78 6.01 23.57 16.1918-Sep 262 -55.06 -48.91 -28.24 -5.86 19.17 -0.50 -0.70 22.89 2.00 8.10 19.96 18.7919-Sep 263 -49.31 -40.56 -27.81 -27.35 16.62 2.20 -0.31 20.04 1.68 5.67 20.06 14.5720-Sep 264 -49.07 -43.37 -28.93 -24.97 14.32 2.71 -0.13 18.10 1.66 5.62 20.00 15.0121-Sep 265 -36.52 -34.29 -24.31 -15.47 14.12 1.99 0.02 15.34 1.41 3.80 17.61 14.89Mean 999 -46.39 -41.42 -29.41 -22.37 16.25 1.16 -0.33 19.36 1.67 5.52 20.43 15.64

12 Km Grid Domain

Table 2. Mixing Ratio MPE for the 15- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.dpp).

Date Day ATS AS AT AU A-MEAN N. Bias Bias N. Error Error Var Max. O Max. P13-Sep 257 -27.94 -22.28 -21.33 1.16 14.81 12.48 0.47 23.33 1.52 3.49 13.11 13.2614-Sep 258 -40.35 -28.61 -24.42 -13.15 18.04 -1.21 -0.76 23.59 1.99 5.68 14.67 12.7415-Sep 259 -24.56 -22.55 -21.22 -10.69 10.69 2.57 -0.11 15.79 1.25 3.17 14.56 13.0016-Sep 260 -19.34 -14.80 -6.71 -2.54 9.48 8.17 0.31 17.25 1.13 2.51 13.10 12.7717-Sep 261 -29.26 -24.92 -17.81 1.94 13.97 8.74 0.47 18.10 1.30 2.51 13.52 13.7818-Sep 262 -18.50 -18.50 -15.91 -2.42 16.16 8.11 0.38 18.61 1.38 2.83 14.01 13.6719-Sep 263 -37.74 -35.99 -34.95 -5.14 12.26 5.34 0.15 16.63 1.23 2.54 14.56 13.8120-Sep 264 -29.35 -17.88 -21.04 -1.79 13.00 4.55 0.12 16.09 1.24 2.57 14.13 13.8821-Sep 265 -29.00 -22.56 -22.02 1.48 10.59 -1.83 -0.26 10.79 0.95 1.43 13.23 13.43Mean 999 -28.45 -23.12 -20.60 -3.46 13.22 5.21 0.09 17.80 1.33 2.97 14.67 13.88

4 Km Grid Domain

Table 2. Mixing Ratio MPE for the 13- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.rrtm.mpp)

OThree Chemistry

MM5 Wind Speed Performance MM5 Wind Speed Performance Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00 Statistics for the 13-21 Sep ’00

EpisodeEpisode

Date Day VMOBS VMEST RMSE IA OBSDIR ESTDIR13-Sep 257 0.60 1.02 1.92 0.81 311 27114-Sep 258 1.36 1.22 2.25 0.78 225 25915-Sep 259 1.82 2.63 2.07 0.85 273 29316-Sep 260 1.45 2.85 2.15 0.83 283 30517-Sep 261 1.31 2.60 2.14 0.79 307 31418-Sep 262 1.03 2.00 2.14 0.79 314 32519-Sep 263 1.15 1.92 2.00 0.82 315 32120-Sep 264 0.97 1.64 2.07 0.81 309 31921-Sep 265 2.10 1.53 2.67 0.73 229 251

Ep. Avg. 999 1.31 1.94 2.16 0.80 282 303

4 Km Grid Domain

Table 3. Surface Wind MPE for the 13- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.rrtm.mpp).

Date Day VMOBS VMEST RMSE IA OBSDIR ESTDIR15-Sep 259 1.47 2.19 2.02 0.83 266 28516-Sep 260 1.16 2.57 2.22 0.81 274 30717-Sep 261 0.93 2.13 2.22 0.81 278 30918-Sep 262 0.83 1.90 2.09 0.84 295 31519-Sep 263 1.03 2.36 2.19 0.82 306 31020-Sep 264 0.90 1.68 2.24 0.82 277 31121-Sep 265 2.12 2.00 2.58 0.76 214 236

Ep. Avg. 999 1.21 2.12 2.22 0.81 264 298

Table 3. Surface Wind MPE for the 15- 21 Sept '00 Episode (Run: eta.dry.mpp).12 Km Grid Domain

OThree Chemistry

Bias in 2m Surface TemperatureBias in 2m Surface Temperature


Run: eta.dry.rrtm.mpp:

Bias in Hourly Surface

Temperature Predictions, (deg C).

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

ep

Mea

n

Bia

s, d

eg C

OThree Chemistry

Error in 2m Surface TemperaturesError in 2m Surface Temperatures



Gross Error in Hourly Surface

Temperature Predictions, (deg C).

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

epM

ean

Gro

ss E

rror

, de

g C

OThree Chemistry

Accuracy of Peak 2m TemperaturesAccuracy of Peak 2m Temperatures



Average Peak Temperature Prediction

Accuracy Over All Stations, (%).

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

ep

Mea

n

Ave

rage

Pea

k Pr

edic

tion

Acc

urac

y, %

OThree Chemistry

Bias in Surface Mixing RatioBias in Surface Mixing Ratio



Bias in Hourly Surface

Mixing Rato Predictions, (gm/Kg).

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

13-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

19-Sep

20-Sep

21-Sep

Mea

n

Bia

s, g

m/K

g

OThree Chemistry

Error in Surface Mixing RatioError in Surface Mixing Ratio



Gross Error in Hourly Surface

Mixing Ratio Predictions, (gm/Kg).

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

ep

Mea

n

Gro

ss E

rror

, gm

/Kg

OThree Chemistry

Mean Daily Observed and Predicted Mean Daily Observed and Predicted WindsWinds



Comparison Between Modeled and Observed

Daily Average Surface Winds, (m/s).

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

13-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

19-Sep

20-Sep

21-Sep

Ep. Avg

.

Dai

ly A

vera

ge W

ind

Spe

ed,

m/s

Vector Mean Observed Vector Mean Predicted

OThree Chemistry

Daily Average Wind Speed RMSE ErrorDaily Average Wind Speed RMSE Error



Daily Average Surface Wind Speed

Root Mean Square Error, (m/s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

ep

Ep. Avg

.

Roo

t M

ean

Squ

are

Err

or,

m/s

OThree Chemistry

Mean Daily Index of AgreementMean Daily Index of Agreement



Daily Average Surface Wind Speed

I ndex of Agreement

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

13-S

ep

14-S

ep

15-S

ep

16-S

ep

17-S

ep

18-S

ep

19-S

ep

20-S

ep

21-S

ep

Ep. Avg

.

Inde

x of

Agr

eem

net

OThree Chemistry

Observed and Predicted Wind Observed and Predicted Wind DirectionsDirections



Comparison Between Modeled and Observed Daily

Average Surface Wind Direction, (deg)

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

13-Sep

14-Sep

15-Sep

16-Sep

17-Sep

18-Sep

19-Sep

20-Sep

21-Sep

Ep. Avg

.

Dai

ly A

vera

ge W

ind D

irec

tion

, deg

Vector Mean Observed Vector Mean Predicted

OThree Chemistry

Ongoing Diagnostic AnalysesOngoing Diagnostic Analyses

What is MM5 model sensitivity to surface roughness?

What is MM5 model sensitivity to soil moisture parameters?

othree chemistry mm5 model diagnostic and sensitivity analysis results central california ozone...

Documents