Oregon Global Warming Commission:

Oregon’s Roadmap to 2020 http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/roadmap-2020

• OR Emissions, Goals, Actions tracked since 2004

• OR met 2010 goal; 2020 ?

• Set 2035 Goal • “wedge” analysis:

measures + tax/cap

Progress Toward Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals

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Historical Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGovernor's Advisory Group on Global Warming (2004) Business as Usual ForecastGreenhouse Gas Emissions from 2000 to Most Recent Data Available (2010)Current Business as Usual ForecastEnergy Efficiency (EE) and Conservation to Meet All New Load GrowthEE + Maintain Full Impact of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to 2025EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural Gas & Renewables (50/50) in 2021EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Switch + Clean Fuels Program (LCFS) with 2015 Sunset Removed2020 and 2050 Goal Emissions Reduction Trajectory

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Historical GHG Emissions (1990 to2012)

Current Business as UsualForecast

Previous Business as UsualForecast

2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory

Oregon GHG peak 1999

US GHG Peak 2008

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Transportation Residential & Commercial Industrial Agriculture

Figure 1: Oregon Emissions by Sector 1990-2012 -- (MMTCO2)

1990: 56.9 MMT

2012: 60.9 MMT

OR GHG’s _ Alternate Calculations 1990 (MMTons) 2012 (MMTons)

Total GHGs 56.9 60.9

_________________________________

Per Capita GHG (OR) 0.02 0.015

Per Capita GHG (Multnomah Cty) 0.015 0.010

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Per Oregon GDP (GHG per MM$*) 0.877 0.296

[OR GDP $Billions in 2009$ $64.8 $205.7 ] _________________________________

Consumption Based GHG Inventory 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMTons) 75.4 75.2 77.0

Transportation of Goods & People (no light rail)

36.0%

Electricity Use (all sectors)

31.5%

Other Residential & Commercial

Activities 12.1%

Industrial Processes &

Other Energy 11.8%

Livestock, Soil, & Crops

8.5%

Oregon Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 (with electricity broken out from sectors)

Cars = about ¼ of OR GHG

Coal = about ¼ of OR GHG

= 50% of Oregon GHG Emissions

CARS COAL +

PGE Boardman Coal Generator, Boardman, OR

Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW

Wyodak/ PAC/362MW

Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]

Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW

Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW

Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015

Hunter/ PAC/1472MW

Huntington/ PAC/996MW

Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well

Craig/PAC /893MW

Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW

Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020

Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025

Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]

Hayden/ PAC/465MW

N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW

PGE Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory

PAC Projected CO2 Emissions and 2035/2050 Goal Trajectory

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PGE 2050 goal trajectory PGE BAU emissions

projections historical

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PacifCorp 2050 goal trajectory Pac BAU emissions

projections historical

Boardman

Fig. 3: OR Emissions from Motor Gasoline and Diesel (MMTCO2e); and Statewide Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (MM)

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Gasoline Diesel & residuals VMT

OR VMT Peak OR GHG Peak

Cars and Coal Est. Carbon-Equivalent MPG*: Electric Vehicles

Wichita, KN (SWPP) – 74% coal/8% gas Raleigh NC (SRVC) – 45% coal/9% gas Seattle WA (WECC) – <3% coal/<1% gas

___________________

Oregon Utilities PacifiCorp +66% coal / +17% gas = + Wichita PGE (post-Boardman) + 9% coal / +63% gas = +Raleigh Eugene (EWEB/COU) <1% coal / +1% gas = + Seattle

= 35 mpg* = 55 mpg* >112 mpg*

*Miles per gallon equivalents per UCS

Fig 11: OR GHG Goal Trajectory and Emission Reduction Wedges

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Case 2: Carbon tax plus statewide emission reduction measures

Carbon taxPower generationAgricultureWasteTransportationRCI energy efficiencyBusiness as usual forecastEmissions after measures2035 and 2050 Goal trajectory

2035 Goal

Efficiency

Transportation

Power Generation

Carbon Tax

Waste Agriculture

2015 Report Recommendations

• Set a [midway] 2035 GHG Goal

• Develop interim “benchmarks” by sector

• Address equity effects

• Track and “upload” technology (e.g., energy storage)

• Reduce in all sectors; begin with “Cars and Coal”

• Leverage federal GHG initiatives: CAFE + CPP

• Develop consumption-based goals and actions

Help From the Feds - Cars

• Auto/light truck “CAFE” efficiency standards – Goals: 35.5 mpg by 2016; 54.5 mpg by 2025 – On target? (30.1 mpg – August, 2013)

• Over-The-Road Truck fuel economy standards adopted (next: rail, air?)

Help From the Feds - Coal

• 2014: Clean Air Act S. 111(b) regulates carbon emissions from new power plants

• 2015: S. 111(d) regulates carbon emissions

from existing power plants – Goal: 32% reduction by 2030 (from 2012) – Each state gets its own target – Tools: (1) plant efficiency; (2) shift from coal to

gas; (3) shift to renewables; (4) efficiency

Coal and Oregon’s Electric Power System

Hydro 95%

Other 5%

2015

HydroCoalGasRenewablesOther

1965

Hydro 45%

Coal 33%

Gas 12%

Renewables 6% Other

3%

Dave Johnston/ PAC/608MW

Wyodak/ PAC/362MW

Naughton/ PAC/707MW [326MW Unit 3 shift to gas]

Jim Bridger /PAC/2318MW

Colstrip/ PSE/2272MW

Carbon/PAC/ 189MW/ Closing 2015

Hunter/ PAC/1472MW

Huntington/ PAC/996MW

Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads, and may deliver to local or other loads as well

Craig/PAC /893MW

Cholla4 (AZ)/ PAC/414MW

Boardman/PGE/585MW/ ending coal combustion 2020

Centralia/TransAlta/ 1460MW/closing by 2025

Principal Coal-burning plants serving PNW/IW loads [Plants shown all deliver to PNW loads and may deliver to local or other interstate loads also]

Hayden/ PAC/465MW

N. Valmy/ Sierra Pacific/ 512MW

Clean Power Plan Final Rule: Targets

OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]

MT CPP Compliance: and Colstrip Coal Plant

Oregon Climate Change Research Institute 2015

Canyon Creek Fire, August 2015

South Carolina 2015 “Once in a Millennium” Storm

Oliphant - Wash Post 2003

Energy Efficiency Is Now The Northwest’s Second Largest Power Resource

Hydropower 53%

Coal 12%

Energy Efficiency

16%

Natural Gas 7%

Nuclear 3%

Wind 6%

Biomass 1%

29

PARIS?

Oregon CPP Rate-Based Goal [OR 2030 mass-based goal 8.1 MMT – from 2012 base 7.7 MMT]

Or: mass-based 2030 goal: 8.1 MMT [=6% higher than 2012]

OR CPP Compliance Outlook [Assumes no added EE/RE]

OR Consumption-Based Emissions

• “Consumption-based Emissions” Inventory • GHG’s associated with (1) what we buy, (2) how we

use it, (3) how we dispose of it • Includes GHG’s from imports (flat screen TV’s from

China; shoes from Viet Nam) • Excludes GHG’s from OR exports (Intel chips) 2005 2010 2012 GHG (MMT) 75.4 75.2 77.0