oregon chronic absense report

8/2/2019 Oregon Chronic Absense Report

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Chronic Absence in Oregon

Attendance Works

The Childrens Institute

The Chalkboard ProjectECONorthwest


2/16

Chronic Absence:

Missing 10% or more of enrolled school days

1. Oregon has a chronic absence problem

Almost a quarter of Oregon K-12 students arechronically absent

2. Early chronic absence has consequences later

Early absenteeism is associated with continuedattendance problems and lower achievement

3. There is hope if we look to successful schools

Some schools are beating the odds and keepingchronic absence low


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23% of K-12 students in Oregon

were chronically absent in 2009-10

Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by grade

Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.


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Chronic absence differs significantly from average for some

subgroups.

Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by subgroup

ED = economically disadvantaged; ELL = English language learner; SPED = special education.


Male Female White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Indian ED ELL SPED

Group (K-12)

22% 23% 22%24%

29%

13%

27% 28%

21%

29%

All: 22.6%


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Economically disadvantaged students were consistently

more likely to be chronically absent

Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by grade and economic

disadvantage


K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Grade

0

10

20

30

40

50 Not economically disadvantagedEconomically disadvantaged


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Kindergarten absence rate is a good indicator of

attendance through the 5th grade

Average absence rate for a cohort of Oregon students moving from K-5,

by absence rate in kindergarten


Grade

0-5% days missed in K

5-10% days missed in K10-20% days missed in K

> 20% days missed in K

K 1 2 3 4 5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


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Similarly, 5th grade absence rate is a good indicator of

attendance through the 10th grade

Average absence rate for a cohort of Oregon students moving from grades 5-10,

by absence rate in 5th grade



8/16

Grade

0-5% days missed in K5-10% days missed in K10-20% days missed in K> 20% days missed in K

0-5% days missed in 5th5-10% days missed in 5th10-20% days missed in 5th> 20% days missed in 5th

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

200

210

220

230

240

There is a clear and consistent relationship between

early attendance and later achievement

Average reading RIT scores for two cohorts of Oregon students, by absence rates in

kindergarten and 5th grade



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Grade

3rd 4th 5th

205

210

215

220

225

Not chronically absent in K or 1stChronically absent in K onlyChronically absent in 1st onlyChronically absent in both K and 1st

Chronic absence in one early grade is associated with lower

test scores throughout elementary school; chronic absence

in both grades corresponds to the lowest scores

Average reading RIT scores for a cohort of Oregon students moving from grades 3-5,

by absenteeism in the early grades



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In the early grades, there is high chronic absenteeism in many parts

of the state, but rates seem especially high in less urban areas

Average chronic absence rates in Oregon school districts


K-2nd


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In high school, high chronic absenteeism is even more common

in many parts of the state, but rates remain especially high in less

urban areas

Average chronic absence rates in Oregon school districts


9-12th


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Cities have the most chronic absentees and towns have

the highest combined chronic absence rates

Town: 2,500-50,000 people, outside an urbanized area

Region Type

K-2nd

Number

Chronically

Absent

K-2nd

Percent

Chronically

Absent

9-12th

Number

Chronically

Absent

9-12th

Percent

Chronically

Absent

City 7,891 19% 18,317 33%

Suburban 4,844 17% 10,607 27%

Town 6,723 22% 16,823 33%

Rural 4,419 19% 9,437 31%

Chronic Absence counts and rates by region type for K-2nd students and 9-12th students



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Schools with the highest chronic absence have

disproportionately large numbers of vulnerable students

Characteristics

10% of Schools

with Best

Attendance

10% of Schools

with Worst

Attendance

State

Average

% ED 27% 74% 54%

% ELL 9% 27% 18%

% SPED 10% 15% 13%

% Non-White 21% 27% 22%

% Chronically Absent 5% 36% 19%

Characteristics of schools with the least and most K-2 chronic absence

ED = economically disadvantaged; ELL = English language learner; SPED = special education.



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Statistical controls for student demographics can help

identify schools that are beating the odds

Schools with disadvantaged student populations

tend to have more chronic absence than do other

schools Investigating schools with rates that differ

significantly from prediction might provide insight

into best practices for improving attendance

Below, we present case studies and summary resultsfrom a preliminary statistical model of chronic

absence at the school level


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Three over-performing schools and one under-performing school


Demographics do not equal destiny

Characteristics School #1 School #2 School #3 School #4

Region Type Rural Town City City

K-2 Enrollment 218 75 215 312

% ED 72% 100% 82% 89%

% ELL 5% 16% 64% 70%

% SPED 17% 5% 12% 9%

% Non-White 36% 33% 83% 83%

Chronic Absence

Predicted Rate 24% 28% 22% 22%

Actual Rate 1% 7% 6% 38%

Difference -23% -21% -16% 15%


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Schools that deviate negatively from their predicted

chronic absence rates are beating the odds

Characteristics

10% of Schools

with Best Model

Performance

10% of Schools

with Worst Model

Performance

All

Schools

% ED 67% 48% 54%

% ELL 16% 10% 18%

% SPED 14% 14% 13%

% Non-White 34% 27% 22%

Chronic Absence

Average Predicted Rate 22% 18% 19%

Average Actual Rate 8% 35% 19%

Average Difference -14% 17% 0%

Predicted vs. actual chronic absence for the highest-performing and lowest-performing

Schools


oregon chronic absense report

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