Download - Oregon Chronic Absense Report
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Chronic Absence in Oregon
Attendance Works
The Childrens Institute
The Chalkboard ProjectECONorthwest
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Chronic Absence:
Missing 10% or more of enrolled school days
1. Oregon has a chronic absence problem
Almost a quarter of Oregon K-12 students arechronically absent
2. Early chronic absence has consequences later
Early absenteeism is associated with continuedattendance problems and lower achievement
3. There is hope if we look to successful schools
Some schools are beating the odds and keepingchronic absence low
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23% of K-12 students in Oregon
were chronically absent in 2009-10
Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by grade
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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Chronic absence differs significantly from average for some
subgroups.
Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by subgroup
ED = economically disadvantaged; ELL = English language learner; SPED = special education.
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
Male Female White Hispanic Black Asian Am. Indian ED ELL SPED
Group (K-12)
22% 23% 22%24%
29%
13%
27% 28%
21%
29%
All: 22.6%
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Economically disadvantaged students were consistently
more likely to be chronically absent
Percentage of Oregon students who are chronically absent, by grade and economic
disadvantage
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
0
10
20
30
40
50 Not economically disadvantagedEconomically disadvantaged
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Kindergarten absence rate is a good indicator of
attendance through the 5th grade
Average absence rate for a cohort of Oregon students moving from K-5,
by absence rate in kindergarten
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
Grade
0-5% days missed in K
5-10% days missed in K10-20% days missed in K
> 20% days missed in K
K 1 2 3 4 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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Similarly, 5th grade absence rate is a good indicator of
attendance through the 10th grade
Average absence rate for a cohort of Oregon students moving from grades 5-10,
by absence rate in 5th grade
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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Grade
0-5% days missed in K5-10% days missed in K10-20% days missed in K> 20% days missed in K
0-5% days missed in 5th5-10% days missed in 5th10-20% days missed in 5th> 20% days missed in 5th
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
200
210
220
230
240
There is a clear and consistent relationship between
early attendance and later achievement
Average reading RIT scores for two cohorts of Oregon students, by absence rates in
kindergarten and 5th grade
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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Grade
3rd 4th 5th
205
210
215
220
225
Not chronically absent in K or 1stChronically absent in K onlyChronically absent in 1st onlyChronically absent in both K and 1st
Chronic absence in one early grade is associated with lower
test scores throughout elementary school; chronic absence
in both grades corresponds to the lowest scores
Average reading RIT scores for a cohort of Oregon students moving from grades 3-5,
by absenteeism in the early grades
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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In the early grades, there is high chronic absenteeism in many parts
of the state, but rates seem especially high in less urban areas
Average chronic absence rates in Oregon school districts
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
K-2nd
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In high school, high chronic absenteeism is even more common
in many parts of the state, but rates remain especially high in less
urban areas
Average chronic absence rates in Oregon school districts
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
9-12th
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Cities have the most chronic absentees and towns have
the highest combined chronic absence rates
Town: 2,500-50,000 people, outside an urbanized area
Region Type
K-2nd
Number
Chronically
Absent
K-2nd
Percent
Chronically
Absent
9-12th
Number
Chronically
Absent
9-12th
Percent
Chronically
Absent
City 7,891 19% 18,317 33%
Suburban 4,844 17% 10,607 27%
Town 6,723 22% 16,823 33%
Rural 4,419 19% 9,437 31%
Chronic Absence counts and rates by region type for K-2nd students and 9-12th students
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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Schools with the highest chronic absence have
disproportionately large numbers of vulnerable students
Characteristics
10% of Schools
with Best
Attendance
10% of Schools
with Worst
Attendance
State
Average
% ED 27% 74% 54%
% ELL 9% 27% 18%
% SPED 10% 15% 13%
% Non-White 21% 27% 22%
% Chronically Absent 5% 36% 19%
Characteristics of schools with the least and most K-2 chronic absence
ED = economically disadvantaged; ELL = English language learner; SPED = special education.
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
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Statistical controls for student demographics can help
identify schools that are beating the odds
Schools with disadvantaged student populations
tend to have more chronic absence than do other
schools Investigating schools with rates that differ
significantly from prediction might provide insight
into best practices for improving attendance
Below, we present case studies and summary resultsfrom a preliminary statistical model of chronic
absence at the school level
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Three over-performing schools and one under-performing school
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.
Demographics do not equal destiny
Characteristics School #1 School #2 School #3 School #4
Region Type Rural Town City City
K-2 Enrollment 218 75 215 312
% ED 72% 100% 82% 89%
% ELL 5% 16% 64% 70%
% SPED 17% 5% 12% 9%
% Non-White 36% 33% 83% 83%
Chronic Absence
Predicted Rate 24% 28% 22% 22%
Actual Rate 1% 7% 6% 38%
Difference -23% -21% -16% 15%
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Schools that deviate negatively from their predicted
chronic absence rates are beating the odds
Characteristics
10% of Schools
with Best Model
Performance
10% of Schools
with Worst Model
Performance
All
Schools
% ED 67% 48% 54%
% ELL 16% 10% 18%
% SPED 14% 14% 13%
% Non-White 34% 27% 22%
Chronic Absence
Average Predicted Rate 22% 18% 19%
Average Actual Rate 8% 35% 19%
Average Difference -14% 17% 0%
Predicted vs. actual chronic absence for the highest-performing and lowest-performing
Schools
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data, 2009-10.