opting for “long term operations” technical, economic and regulatory considerations marc...
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Opting for “Long Term Operations”
Technical, economic and regulatory considerations
MARC ConferenceJune 8, 2010
Sean Bushart, EPRISr. Program Manager
2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Long Term Operation Challenge
1929 Marmon(80 years old) 1969 Cadillac
(40 years old) 2009 Ford HEV Escape
Cost-Effective, Environmentally Sustainable, Safe Operation with High Performance Through 40, 80 or More Years
3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Long Term Operations: Presentation Overview
• The Big Picture: Determining the Electricity Generation Mix of the Future
• Generation Example: Coal Fleet
– Business Decision Making Drivers
– Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles
• Generation Example: Nuclear Fleet
– Business and Regulatory Drivers
– Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles
4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Low Carbon Future Needs A Full Portfolio of Technologies
EIA Base Case 2009
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
U.S
. E
lect
ric
Sec
tor
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n m
etri
c to
ns)
58% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of technologies
Efficiency
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil Effic, CCS
PEV
Electro-Technologies
EPRI Prism: Technical Potential to Achieve CO2 Reductions Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.
5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Comparison of Current to Future U.S. Electricity Generation Based on 2009 Prism
Coal
Coal
GasGas
Nuclear
NuclearCoal + CCS
Renewables
“TODAY” “FUTURE”
6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Coal Plants: Business Decision Making Factors for Long Term Operations
“Trilemma” of security of supply, regulatory uncertainty, cost
– Impact of large scale deployment of variable output renewables on the existing generation fleet
– Regulatory uncertainty, e.g. ash, CO2, power plant water usage, and unknown costs associated with these issues
– Financing uncertainty and financial risk
7© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI R&D Response: Provide strategic guidance on the new wave of industry decisions
Market-based simulation of alternative cycling/ shutdown strategies
Technologies to shift cycling burden
Complexities of retirement planning due to changing regional assets
Synergies with modeling pace and costs of CO2 compliance, incl. technology choice
Regional case studies of factors affecting timelines
AccommodatingCycling
RetirementStrategy
Timelines forCapacity Turnover
timing mission
8© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
R&D Focus: Advanced Coal, Carbon Capture and Storage
Cost-effective coal-based generation with near-zero emissions and carbon capture and storage
Economics/Planning– Technology knowledge databases– Fuel market analysis
• Future Assets– Advanced combustion design/performance/demonstration– IGCC design/cost improvements/demonstrations
• Deploying Carbon Capture and Storage– Design for CCS Retrofit – Capture and storage technologies
9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Nuclear Long Term Operations: Both a Technical and Regulatory Challenge
• Original fleet of plants licensed by the NRC for 40 years of operation
• License renewal process established to extend operations from 40-60 years.– EPRI led technical basis for first plants (e.g. Calvert Cliffs)
– NEI led with NRC interactions
• R&D underway to extend beyond 60 years– EPRI/ DOE collaborating on the technical basis effort
– NEI is industry regulatory interface
– Utility Executives: Significant investment –likely required to make this leap (early estimates of $350M-$1B/ unit)
10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Nuclear Long-Term Operations: EPRI R&D Scope
Provide the technical basis for license renewal and life extension decisions beyond 60 or 80 years
• Aging of passive structures and components
• On-line diagnostics to prevent equipment failures
• Managing crack growth in primary system metals
• Realistic and efficient safety analysis tools
11© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
R&D Focus: Materials Aging
Extension of Materials Degradation Matrix for primary metals for failure mechanisms to 80 years
PZR & RC pipe-surgeline connections
Safety & reliefvalve nozzles
RCP suction& discharge
Charging inletnozzles
Safety injection &SDC inlet nozzle
Spray nozzles
Let-down & drain nozzles
CEDM motor housing
CEDM/ICI nozzles to RV head welds
ICI nozzles-ICI guide tubes
Shutdown cooling outlet nozzle
PZR surge line nozzle
Heat transfer tubing
Tubesheet (TS) cladding
Tube-TS cladding weld
Partition plate & welds
Primary nozzle closurerings & welds
Bottom channel head drain tube & welds
PZR instrumentnozzles
PZR heatersleeves
RVH vent nozzle
Monitor tube
RCS instrument nozzles
Guide lugsflow skirt
PZR & RC pipe-surgeline connections
Safety & reliefvalve nozzles
RCP suction& discharge
Charging inletnozzles
Safety injection &SDC inlet nozzle
Spray nozzles
Let-down & drain nozzles
CEDM motor housing
CEDM/ICI nozzles to RV head welds
ICI nozzles-ICI guide tubes
Shutdown cooling outlet nozzle
PZR surge line nozzle
Heat transfer tubing
Tubesheet (TS) cladding
Tube-TS cladding weld
Partition plate & welds
Primary nozzle closurerings & welds
Bottom channel head drain tube & welds
PZR instrumentnozzles
PZR heatersleeves
RVH vent nozzle
Monitor tube
RCS instrument nozzles
Guide lugsflow skirt
12© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Demo Plant Activities:Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1
• EPRI, U.S. DOE, and Constellation Energy → 3-year collaboration to demonstrate the assessment of aging concerns
– Plants are beyond 40 year life• Examine data, inspect and test for aging degradation• Pilot technical products for long term operations
– Developing lead tasks jointly
• Key results to date
– Comprehensive containment examination
– Incremental reactor internals inspection for > 60 years
13© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• Meeting the objectives of a low carbon future will require a full portfolio of generation technologies
• Specific selections of retrofit, retire, replace, or extend must be made on case-by-case basis
– based upon specific business and regulatory drivers
• EPRI R&D is:
– helping utilities to make these decisions
– overcoming the technology gaps for “long term operations” in a cost-effective manner