OPEN:EU Initial Seminar Scenarios and Policy Analysis

Katy Roelich - Stockholm Environment InstituteDoris Knoblauch - Ecologic Institute

Scenario and Policy Analysis

Aims of the scenarios webinar:

• To explain the purpose of developing scenarios for OPEN• To invite comment on the methodology for scenario development• To show how you could get involved• To start to form a stakeholder group

There will be questions at key points to prompt discussionYou will have an opportunity for more detailed comment after event

Scenarios are plausible representations of the future based on sets of internally consistent assumptions either about relationships and processes of change or about desired end states

Scenario planning employs qualitative and or quantitative tools to visualise the future, including storylines to create representations of alternative worlds that resonate with a wide range of different individuals

Scenarios create a framework for using a tool like Eureapa. Effectively a reality check for the tool

What are scenarios?

We can address uncertainty and complexity by using scenarios to explore the future.

Why are Scenarios important?

One Planet Europe 2050

Problem: Complexity & Uncertainty

Scenario & Policy Analysis

• Promote action & analysis

• EUREAPA produces robust results for future impacts

• Plot path to One Planet Economy

Aims of scenarios and policy analysis

Scenarios and

policy analy

sis

Identify and

quantity potential

interventions

Build consensus

Stimulate engageme

nt

Enable proactive decision making

Scenario = plausible future

Policy analysis = path to One Planet Economy

Outcome of our scenario work

Example:

IPCC scenarios for what might happen to carbon emissions in a selection of futures.

Used to test policy options.

Scenarios - how the impact of consumption changes from now to a number of possible futures – where might we intervene?

Policy - implications of policy approaches in these different scenarios - how might we achieve a One Planet Europe?

Benefits of scenarios

Scenarios can be used to:• Challenge current perceptions• Provide a common language• Stimulate discussion and creativity• Identify how and when to intervene• Test the robustness of Policy

We will use the scenarios within the project but also want people to use the scenarios after the project.

Scenarios will help us understand how consumption might change in the future.

Benefits of policy analysis

Policy analysis will show that:• There are different routes towards a One Planet Europe – not one solution!

• The impact of policy will vary in different scenarios

We want other people to use the findings of this analysis after the project.

Policy analysis will help us test current policy approaches to understand how far they can help us move towards a One Planet

Economy

Questions

Do you think we have got the aims right?We would welcome any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share

Please use the chat function to comment

nowOr

Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire

that follows

How will we develop scenarios?

Robust methodology• UNEP sponsored methodology• Well regarded and practical

Participation• Access specialised knowledge• Get different perspectives• Create buy in• Reach those whose minds we want to change

New Tool: EUREAPA• Range of indicators• Impact of consumption

Scenario Development: Stage 1Clarify Purpose and Structure

Lay the foundations

Develop and testBetter Boundaries = Better Scenarios

Understanding Actors = Better Scenarios• Who will use the scenarios? • What are the aims of the scenarios? • What are we measuring? • Who is in the scenario? • What is driving change in the scenario?• What kind of policy might we explore in the scenarios?

You will be invited to comment on a summary of our findings in Sep 2010.

Scenario Development: Stage 2Clarify Purpose and Structure

Lay the foundations

Develop and test

Managing uncertainty - Setting a framework How might drivers change? Which drivers have most impact and are most uncertain? How does this shape our possible futures?

We invite you to participate in this at a workshop in Sep 2010.

Scenario Development: Stage 3Clarify Purpose and Structure

Lay the foundations

Develop and testWhat happens to consumption in our futures - scenarios?

• What do our futures look like?• What is the impact of consumption in our futures? Using Eureapa

to develop reference scenarios

How effective is policy in our futures - policy analysis?• What effect does policy have on the impact of consumption in our

futures? Testing effects of policy on impact using Eureapa• How close could we get to One Planet Europe?

We need to consult stakeholders to test assumptions& outcomes.

Questions

Do you have any immediate comments on the proposed approach?What are the main challenges you think we will face?How would you use the scenarios?How would you use the policy analysis?Have you got any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share?

Please use the chat function to comment

nowOr

Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire

that follows

Why participate?

•It will make scenarios more relevant to you and so more useful

Relevance

•We will have more perspectives making the scenarios better and more robust.

Robustness

•Scenarios will be developed to make them useful to a wider audienceRange

How to participate

Stakeholder workshop 8-

9th September

Further consultation

This webinar & questionnaire

Clarify Purpose and Structure

Lay the foundations

Develop and test

Stake-holders

Jun 2010 Sept 2010 Mar 2011

Would you like to join the stakeholder group?Do you know anybody else that would like to join?Any other comments?

Questions

Please use the chat function to comment

nowOr

Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire

that follows