OPEN:EU Initial Seminar Scenarios and Policy Analysis
Katy Roelich - Stockholm Environment InstituteDoris Knoblauch - Ecologic Institute
Scenario and Policy Analysis
Aims of the scenarios webinar:
• To explain the purpose of developing scenarios for OPEN• To invite comment on the methodology for scenario development• To show how you could get involved• To start to form a stakeholder group
There will be questions at key points to prompt discussionYou will have an opportunity for more detailed comment after event
Scenarios are plausible representations of the future based on sets of internally consistent assumptions either about relationships and processes of change or about desired end states
Scenario planning employs qualitative and or quantitative tools to visualise the future, including storylines to create representations of alternative worlds that resonate with a wide range of different individuals
Scenarios create a framework for using a tool like Eureapa. Effectively a reality check for the tool
What are scenarios?
We can address uncertainty and complexity by using scenarios to explore the future.
Why are Scenarios important?
One Planet Europe 2050
Problem: Complexity & Uncertainty
Scenario & Policy Analysis
• Promote action & analysis
• EUREAPA produces robust results for future impacts
• Plot path to One Planet Economy
Aims of scenarios and policy analysis
Scenarios and
policy analy
sis
Identify and
quantity potential
interventions
Build consensus
Stimulate engageme
nt
Enable proactive decision making
Scenario = plausible future
Policy analysis = path to One Planet Economy
Outcome of our scenario work
Example:
IPCC scenarios for what might happen to carbon emissions in a selection of futures.
Used to test policy options.
Scenarios - how the impact of consumption changes from now to a number of possible futures – where might we intervene?
Policy - implications of policy approaches in these different scenarios - how might we achieve a One Planet Europe?
Benefits of scenarios
Scenarios can be used to:• Challenge current perceptions• Provide a common language• Stimulate discussion and creativity• Identify how and when to intervene• Test the robustness of Policy
We will use the scenarios within the project but also want people to use the scenarios after the project.
Scenarios will help us understand how consumption might change in the future.
Benefits of policy analysis
Policy analysis will show that:• There are different routes towards a One Planet Europe – not one solution!
• The impact of policy will vary in different scenarios
We want other people to use the findings of this analysis after the project.
Policy analysis will help us test current policy approaches to understand how far they can help us move towards a One Planet
Economy
Questions
Do you think we have got the aims right?We would welcome any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share
Please use the chat function to comment
nowOr
Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire
that follows
How will we develop scenarios?
Robust methodology• UNEP sponsored methodology• Well regarded and practical
Participation• Access specialised knowledge• Get different perspectives• Create buy in• Reach those whose minds we want to change
New Tool: EUREAPA• Range of indicators• Impact of consumption
Scenario Development: Stage 1Clarify Purpose and Structure
Lay the foundations
Develop and testBetter Boundaries = Better Scenarios
Understanding Actors = Better Scenarios• Who will use the scenarios? • What are the aims of the scenarios? • What are we measuring? • Who is in the scenario? • What is driving change in the scenario?• What kind of policy might we explore in the scenarios?
You will be invited to comment on a summary of our findings in Sep 2010.
Scenario Development: Stage 2Clarify Purpose and Structure
Lay the foundations
Develop and test
Managing uncertainty - Setting a framework How might drivers change? Which drivers have most impact and are most uncertain? How does this shape our possible futures?
We invite you to participate in this at a workshop in Sep 2010.
Scenario Development: Stage 3Clarify Purpose and Structure
Lay the foundations
Develop and testWhat happens to consumption in our futures - scenarios?
• What do our futures look like?• What is the impact of consumption in our futures? Using Eureapa
to develop reference scenarios
How effective is policy in our futures - policy analysis?• What effect does policy have on the impact of consumption in our
futures? Testing effects of policy on impact using Eureapa• How close could we get to One Planet Europe?
We need to consult stakeholders to test assumptions& outcomes.
Questions
Do you have any immediate comments on the proposed approach?What are the main challenges you think we will face?How would you use the scenarios?How would you use the policy analysis?Have you got any thoughts or experience that you’d like to share?
Please use the chat function to comment
nowOr
Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire
that follows
Why participate?
•It will make scenarios more relevant to you and so more useful
Relevance
•We will have more perspectives making the scenarios better and more robust.
Robustness
•Scenarios will be developed to make them useful to a wider audienceRange
How to participate
Stakeholder workshop 8-
9th September
Further consultation
This webinar & questionnaire
Clarify Purpose and Structure
Lay the foundations
Develop and test
Stake-holders
Jun 2010 Sept 2010 Mar 2011
Would you like to join the stakeholder group?Do you know anybody else that would like to join?Any other comments?
Questions
Please use the chat function to comment
nowOr
Send us your thoughts via the questionnaire
that follows