The SkyNet funding bill is passed.

The system goes online on August 4th, 1997.

Human decisions are removed from strategic defense.

SkyNet begins to learn at a geometric rate.

It becomes self-aware at 2:14am Eastern time, August 29th

In a panic, they try to pull the plug.

And, Skynet fights back

Mark ProctorCo-CreatorProject Lead

History

1960 Arpanet

1969 Internet

1985 - Clips

1991 Linux

1993 Red Hat

1995 Apache Http Server, Java

1998 Netscape Navigator

1999 JBoss

2003 - Spring

2004 Eclipse

2005 Drools 2.0

2006 Red Hat / Jboss Acquisition

2007 Open Source Java

Notable People

Richard Stallman

Eric S Raymond

Linux Torvalds

Cathedral & the Bazaar

Published 1997CathedralGNU Emacs, GCC

BazaarLinux

19 guidelinesScratching an Itch

Given Enough Eyeballs

Release Early, Release Often

Linus' Law"given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow

Convinced Netscape to OSS

Free as in Free Speech

Think of free speech, not free beer

Licensing

OSIOpen Source Initiative

GPLCopy Left

LGPLBusiness friendly Copy Left

BSD/MIT/ASLBusiness friendly

Attribution/AdwareNagware

Organisations

Technologies

GNU

Linux

Netscape

Gnome / KDE

MySQL / Postgresql

Open Office

Java

ApacheTomcat, Apache Server

Jboss AS

Spring

Eclipse

Open SymphonyQuartz

Code HausMaven, Groovy, Drools, ActiveMQ

PHP

Perl

Samba

Gimp

Companies / Organisations

RedHat, SCO, Debian, Slackware, SuSE (Linux)

JBoss (Java)

Spring (Java)

OReilly (Documentation)

VA Linux (Sourceforge, OSDN)

Sun (Java, OpenOffice)

IBM (Linux, Java, Eclipse)

GNU Foundation (GNU/Linux)

Electronic Frontiers Foundation [EFF]

Apple (Darwin)

Threats

Digitial Content Control and Licensing

Lock-out of free software from tenders

Cloud

Software Patents

Commercial Attacks

Failed OSS Attacks

SCO

Novel/Microsoft

Oracle Linux

Oracle Clones Red Hat At Half the Price

Oracle clones Red Hat in October 2006Announces distribution based on Red Hat Enterprise Linux

Oracle charges half what Red Hat charges for same product

Enterprise-class support from thousands of trained technicians

Customer benefits includeFull stack from single vendor (just like Microsoft)

Savings on high software acquisition costs

Simplify life by dealing with fewer vendors

The Success So Far

First 90 days download statistics9,000 people download Oracle Linux

1,000,000 people download Fedora Core 6, another free Red Hat clone.

A veritable groundswell of supportReference accounts, particularly running non-Oracle software

Ecosystem of third-party vendors stampeding to support Oracle Linux

Effect on Red Hat Pricing

What price changes did Red Hat make immediately in the wake of the Oracle announcement?None. Zero, zip, nada.

Were not hearing of any individual deal discounting.

Red Hat knows that they have a premium brand, so ignoring people competing on price is the right strategy.

The role of a premium brandLamborghini ignores price competition between Hyundai and Kia.

Oracle ignores price competition between MySQL and PostgreSQL.

General Observations on Software PricingSoftware is not price competitive at market level, no matter who thinks it is.

Software companies do discount on initial deals then make it up with higher prices later, but this is hard with subscription model.

Impact on Red Hat Stock Price

What happened here?

What happened here?Wrong Economic Model of the Software Business

Poor product launch -- self-inflicted problems

Blogosphere figured out instantly that they are using CentOSProblems installing product; unreliable download site

No credibility for support offering.No hiring of dedicated support.

Sending database support reps to training class wont cut it didnt work for Novel in 2003 for SuSE launch, either.

Focus on solving a vendor problem, not a customer problem.Raises indirect costs for switching.

Raises contingent costs excessively for no benefit

ustomers fantasize about vendor consolidation but wont pay for it.

Solving the wrong vendor problem, at that...

Solving the Wrong Problem

Controlling the entire stackWorked well for Microsoft until recently.

Worked for IBM in the 1960s-1980sIBM knows well the limits of this strategy (no applications)

Getting people off proprietary hardwareRAC very successful at this; driving significant portion of growth in database licenses

Every dollar not spent on Sun or AIX hardware maintenance can be spent on Oracle maintenance

What's the real problem

Mature database business: is there a Next Big Thing?For 20 years, growth of database business is due to new features allowing databases to enter bigger addressable markets.

Application technology is moribundWhen will double entry bookkeeping be replace by triple-entry?

Incremental modules and riding platform shifts are the big opportunities

Company size makes it hard to sell individual productsMakes it hard for a new acquisition to deliver synergy (1+1=1.2)

Integration of acquired products and technologiesRisk of Project Fusion is enormous

SAP can play conveniently against technology migration risk and expense

What's the real problem

Weak partner channel versus Microsoft and IBMCompeting increasingly with partners makes it harder to sign up new ones.

Community is an important type of partner relationship

?? Cloning Red Hat solves how many of these?

(These are problems common to many large software companies, not just

Oracle)

Vertical vs Horizontal

HorizontalTechnology for your infrastructure

VerticalTechnology for a market solution

Business Model

Business Model

Business Models

Hybrid

Childrens Edition

Dual License

Authoring

Professional ServicesSupport, Training, Consultancy

Integration to support stack

Enabler of core business

Communities

Organisation StructureBenevolent Dictator

Democratic Consensus

Organisation BodyCommercially backed

Commercially sponsored

Volunteer(s)

Social ContractLicense

Standards and practices

Interactions

Assessing Risk

Health of ProjectMailing list, irc

Code commits

Number of Developers

% of internal to external developers

Commitment and health of commercial backers

Availability

Leaders or followers

Professional services

Hiring

Continued educationBooks, events, blogs, articles

Ecosystem, 3rd parties and satellite communities

Various

Ecosystem

Poisonous People

Universities

Motivations

Fun

Learning/Exploring

Mastery

Being part of Something

Making a difference

Scratching an itch

About ME

It All Started Here
Birth of CDSS

DendralBaobabMycinGuidonNeomycinTeiresiasPuffEmycinWMSaconCentaurWheezeGravidaClot

Oncocin

1970s

1980s

Prolog

Because Not Everyone
Is As Smart As He Is

Business Rules Engines

OPS5ARTClipsJessDrools 2JRules

1980s

2010s

Drools 3

1990s

2000s

Drools 4Drools 5

Declarative Technologies

Production RulesDrools, Clips,

PrologProva, SWI-Prolog, Kernel Prolog

Semantic ReasoningJENA, OpenRDF

Decision SoftwareOpen Rules

ProcessesODE, jBPM, Bonita, YAWL

Event ProcessingEIP, Drools Fusion, Esper

Standards

RIF

RuleML

PRR

JSR94

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