on the move - rosneft.com · 31.12.2005 production exploration udmurtneft ... • introducing...
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ROSNEFTROSNEFT
On The MoveOn The Move
June 18, 2007June 18, 2007Renaissance CapitalRenaissance Capital1111thth Annual Investor Annual Investor ConferenceConferenceMoscowMoscow
2
Important NoticeImportant Notice
The information contained herein has been prepared by the Company. The opinions presented herein are based on general information gathered at the time of writing and are subject to change without notice. The Company relies on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
These materials contain statements about future events and expectations that are forward-looking statements. Any statement in these materials that is not a statement of historical fact is a forward-looking statement that involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. We assume no obligations to update the forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities and nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation or on its completeness, accuracy or fairness. The information in this presentation is subject to verification, completion and change. The contents of this presentation have not been verified by the Company. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its shareholders, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. None of the Company nor any of its shareholders, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
3
Q1 2007 Results: Key HighlightsQ1 2007 Results: Key Highlights
Q1 2007
§ Refined product prices weaker
§ Taxes, rouble appreciation
2007-2008
§ Integrating recent acquisitions
§ Optimization of enhanced downstream portfolio to grow netbacks through:
§ Enhanced MIS/technology solutions
§ Increased sales/distribution capabilities
§ Realizing benefits of new flexibility in netback options
§ EBITDA* up 2x to USD 1,741 mln vsQ4’06
§ Operating cash flow at USD 894 mln vs USD (967) mln in Q4 2006
§ Leading production growth
§ Gas sales
§ Gas prices up 47%
§ Refining volumes growth
§ Retail throughput growth
§ Cost control§ Operating expenses down 26% vs Q4’06
§ SG&A down 7% vs Q4’06
PositivesPositives Challenges, PrioritiesChallenges, Priorities
*Adjusted for accrual of fines and penalties related to pre-acquisition Yuganskneftegaz tax debt of USD 297 mln
4
Reserve Replacement DynamicsReserve Replacement Dynamics
124%
110%
78%
73%
69%
38%
192%
284%
137%
Rosneft (SPE)
ConocoPhilips
Exxon
BP
Petrochina
Total
Lukoil
Chevron
Shell
2006 Reserve Replacement Rate2006 Reserve Replacement Rate
5
14,877
673(593)344 662
15,96317,877
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
31.12.2005 Production Exploration Udmurtneftacquisition
Revisions 31.12.2006 SamNG andTomsk
acquisition
20.06.2007
Proved reserves, mln bbl (SPE basis)
Reserves AdditionsReserves Additions
1,914
6
Rosneft Oil ReservesRosneft Oil Reserves
15 927
10 850
9 781
7 806
6 696
6 471
4 197
3 481
17 877
11 618
Rosneft (SPE)
Lukoil (SPE)
Petrochina
Exxon
BP
Chevron
ConocoPhilips
Total
Shell
ENI
2006 proved oil reserves (mm bbl)2006 proved oil reserves (mm bbl)
Source: Company reports and filingsNote: SEC classification unless otherwise indicatedCrude oil SPE reserves for Rosneft include Tomskneft and Samaraneftegaz (Miller&Lents report. 2006)
2006 oil R/P ratio (years)2006 oil R/P ratio (years)
6
9
11
11
12
12
14
19
23
27
Shell
ENI
BP incl TNK-BP
ExxonMobil
Total
ChevronTexaco
Petrochina
ConocoPhillips
Lukoil (SPE)
Rosneft (SPE)
7
2006 Crude Production Growth2006 Crude Production Growth
Rosneft Daily Production 2006Rosneft Daily Production 2006
Source: Rosneft
0,3%
2,7%
3,0%
6,3%
8,3%
-1,0%
-3,0%
-3,6%
-3,9%ТNК-BP
BP
Shell
Gazpromneft
Tatneft
Surgutneftegas
Lukoil
Exxon
Rosneft
Growth Rate 2006Growth Rate 2006
Source: CDU TEK (Russian companies). Companies data
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
01.01.2006 01.03.2006 01.05.2006 01.07.2006 01.09.2006 01.11.2006
20062005
ktpd
8
1
86
444
4
61
Q1 06 YNG SevernayaNeft
Sakhalin-1 Purneftegaz Share inUdmurtneft
Other Q1 07
1,525
1,715
Q1 2007 Crude Oil Production GrowthQ1 2007 Crude Oil Production Growth
Includes share in production of affiliates
mln bbl
+12.5%
1Q2007 Crude Oil Production Reconciliation1Q2007 Crude Oil Production Reconciliation
kbpd
9
New wells average flow rate (bpd) 1Q 2007New wells average flow rate (bpd) 1Q 2007
806
554
456392
326
138
Rosneft Gazpneft Slavneft TNK-BP Lukoil Surgut
New wells average flow rate (bpd) 1Q 2006New wells average flow rate (bpd) 1Q 2006
706670
623
461
322
183
Rosneft TNK-BP Gazpneft Slavneft Lukoil Surgut
Extending Drilling Performance GapExtending Drilling Performance Gap
10
2.5
3.1
3.7
5.3
5.6
6.0
6.8
7.0
Rosneft
LUKOIL
Total
BP
ConocoPhillips
ExxonMobil
Chev ron
RD Shell
5.3
6.6
7.5
9.2
10.9
12.2
13.2
13.4
Rosneft
LUKOIL
ExxonMobil
BP
ConocoPhillips
Chevron
RD Shell
Total
Lifting cost per boe in 2006Lifting cost per boe in 2006
Superior Cost EfficiencySuperior Cost Efficiency
Capital expenditure per boe in 2006Capital expenditure per boe in 2006
11
2.390 2.562
-
1
2
3
Q1 07 Q1 06
Gas SalesGas Sales
Sales VolumesSales Volumes
20.92
30.84
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q1 07 Q1 06
Sales PricesSales Prices
+7.2% +47.4%bcm USD/kcm
12
§ Optimum Development System • Reduced well stock by more than 3 times• Initial well flow rate grew by more than 6 times• Cumulative production per 1 well over 84 mln t
§ Gas Re-injection • Recovery ratio growth• 100% of gas utilization
§ Integrated project
§ Application of cutting edge well completion technique
§ Application of Smart well completion and management systems
§ Switch from conventional wells to horizontal:• Reduction in well stock • Spike in initial well flows
Key project solutionsKey project solutions
ReservesReserves
945.9 1,184.51,902.8
2,644.7
1P Reserves as31.12.2005
1P Reserves as31.12.2006
2P Reserves as31.12.2005
2P Reserves as31.12.2006
+238.6
+741.9mln.bbl
ProgressProgress
§ Reserves upgrade on successful drilling and 3D models re-interpretation
§ 151 km (~30%) of trunk pipeline constructed and 1 booster construction is commenced
§ 6 clusters of producing wells drilled and ready for completion
Vankor Vankor ProgressProgress
14
§ Develop an efficient production program for 2008-2012 aimed at stabilization and sustainable production volume increase through:
• Introducing modern drilling and wells construction technologies
• Introducing a full-scale drilling geological support
• Realizing the projects for optimizing ground infrastructure
• Introducing the system of integrated production and deposits development management (TPMSYS)
• Optimizing the system of formation-pressure maintenance
§ Identify and pursue expansion opportunities
Integration of New Assets: Key PrioritiesIntegration of New Assets: Key Priorities
§ 2H 2007 Production Program• Rank the projects and optimize the
drilling program in accordance with economic efficiency
• Concentrate resources on most efficient projects
• Streamline and integrate the technical databases
§ Approve 2007 business plan§ HR§ IT and accounting systems
ImmediateImmediate Longer-termLonger-term
15
Downstream Weaknesses of Rosneft PreDownstream Weaknesses of Rosneft Pre--AcquisitionAcquisition
Shortage of Proprietary Refining Capacity
High percentage of crude export yielded higher export duty
High percentage of rail shipments
Lower product sales price
High level of export duty
High transportation costs
Low Net Income
17Source: Info ТEК-Consult, Company statistical dataCalculation of Nelson index doesn’t take into account lubricants production capacity and infrastructure complexity
БАШНЕФТЕХИМ
Nelson complexity index for Rosneft and Peers, as of 1 June 2007
7,1
6,56,1
5,65,55,5
5,15,05,04,9
4,64,44,3
3,93,93,8
3,63,5
3,42,7
2,32,0
1,81,7
1,0
7,3
4.7
ОmskyUfaneftekhim
PermnefteorgsyntesKuibyshevsky
YaroslavnefteorgsyntesUfimsky
NovokuibyshevskyRyazansky
NizhnekamskySuzransky
MoskovskyVolgogradnefteperera
Novo-UfimskySaratovsky
SalavatnefteorgsyntesKirishinefteorgsyntesOrsknefteorgsyntes
NizhegorodnefteorgsyAngarskaya PC
UkhtaneftepererabotkAchinsky
KomsomolskyKhabarovsky
The Mendeleev ORTuapskinsky
KrasnodarskyAfipsky
Substantial Improvement in ComplexitySubstantial Improvement in Complexity
18
11
47
Old Rosneft New Rosneft
Increased Volumes and EfficiencyIncreased Volumes and Efficiency
Throughput Volumes, mtpaThroughput Volumes, mtpa
>20%
<5%
4x Increase
Share in oil refining throughput in Russia
Weighted average Nelson Complexity IndexWeighted average Nelson Complexity Index
2,34,2
Old Rosneft New Rosneft
19
39
22 20
42
1611
Rosneft Lukoil TNK-BP SurgutNG Gazpromneft "Old" Rosneft
mtpa
Oil Products Output by Own RefineriesOil Products Output by Own Refineries
Leadership in Refining Output in RussiaLeadership in Refining Output in Russia
20
3.00 2.70 2.57
3.60
3.04 3.20
1Q07 1Q06 4Q06
Petroleum products output by owned refineries Petroleum products output by third party refineries
5.77
6.60
5.74
Petroleum Products OutputPetroleum Products Output
Petroleum Products OutputPetroleum Products Output
mln tonnes
21
2.76 3.17 3.524.27
4.94
2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q2007
Retail: Increasing ThroughputRetail: Increasing Throughput
Average daily sales per 1 filling stationAverage daily sales per 1 filling station
tonnes / day
22
Economic EnvironmentEconomic Environment
$/tonne
$/tonne
$/bbl
%
%
RUB/USD
499
526
54.3
11.7%
7.3%
26.31
Q1 07
28.16Average RUB/USD rate
Annual inflation rate: Q1’06 through Q1’07
Annual real RUB appreciation vs USD: Q1’06 through Q1’07
58.2Urals oil price (av. Med and NWE)
552Gasoil, 0.2% (av. Med)
527Diesel fuel (av. RF)
Q1 06
23
58.2
23.4
11.0
27.6
9.4
54.3
Urals Export Duty MET
Q1 06 Q1 07
Tax EnvironmentTax Environment
Oil Price and Taxes in 1Q 2007Oil Price and Taxes in 1Q 2007
-3.90USD/bbl
+4.2
-1.6
Oil Price Decrease –Tax Increase = -6.5 USD/bbl
24
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1Q20074Q20063Q20062Q20061Q2006
High oсtane gasoline Low oсtane gasoline Diesel fuel Naphtha Oil price Fuel oil
Oil Products PricesOil Products Prices
USD/ton
Dynamics of product pricesDynamics of product prices
Weighted Average Price
381 USD / t 427 USD / t 432 USD / t 380 USD / t 377 USD / t
25
SG&A and Transportation ExpensesSG&A and Transportation Expenses
5.4%
8.3%
(7.0%)
qoq, %
877
735
142
Q1 06
1,125
939
186
Q1 07
20031.0%General and administrative expenses
86727.8%Pipeline tariffs and transportation costs
1,06728.3%Total
Q4 06ytd, %USD mln
General and administrative expensesGeneral and administrative expenses
525 19
186
142
28 5
0
50
100
150
200
1Q06 Inflation Salaries Operating lease Bad debtprovision
Other expense 1Q07
USD mln
26
Operating Expenses and PurchasesOperating Expenses and Purchases
12%
56%
18%
(4%)
(83%)
(67%)
(2%)
(26%)
qoq, %
105
100
83
288
10
118
315
443
Q1 06
13847%154- Processing services
131(42%)58- Oil products
228223%268- Crude oil & gas
49867%480Value of purchased goods and services
10990%19- Other
137(62%)45- Refining and Marketing
48652%478- Production
73222%542Operating expenses
Q4 06ytd, %Q1 07USD mln
27
880
1,741 1,920
44108204
192
524893
Q1 2006 EBITDA Revenues Tax Burden Hydrocarbonspurchases
Transportationcosts
Operating andexplorationexpenses
G&A costs Q1 2007 EBITDA Q4 2006 EBITDA
EBITDAEBITDA
EBITDA ReconciliationEBITDA Reconciliation
-9.3%
USD mln
*Adjusted for accrual of fines and penalties related to pre-acquisition Yuganskneftegaz tax debt of USD 297 mln
+97.8%
28
Capital ExpendituresCapital Expenditures
1629Marketing Retail
1450OJSC NK Rosneft
114Tuapse Refinery
07Komsomolsk Refinery
18Other downstream
8254Other upstream
317457Yuganskneftegaz
1276Vankor
3651Purneftegaz
-39Sakhalin-1
3039Severnaya Neft
-8
1,0339
108
916
1Q07
258105
59092
32
466
1Q06
Acquisition of licensesAcquisition of entities
TotalOther
Refining and marketing
Exploration and production
USD mln
29
High Visibility of Growth in Short and Long Term High Visibility of Growth in Short and Long Term
“Old” Rosneft“Old” Rosneft
§ Tomskneft
§ Samaraneftegaz
§ VSNK2010 2012 2015
Sakhalin 3,4,5Kamchatka
South of Russia
VankorVerknechonSakhalin-1
Gas: KharampurNovochaselskoye
Probable and Possible reserves of
Yugansk, Purneftegaz, SN
Proved reserves of Yugansk,
Purneftegaz, SN
§ 2010: >2 mbpd of oil
§ 2012: Up to 40 bcm of gas (assuming pipeline access)
§ 2015: Up to 2.8 mbpd of oil
New AssetsNew Assets
“Old” Targets“Old” Targets
30
Tuapse refinery
Komsomolsk refinery
4,1
12
2006 2010
11
91
2006 2015
Downstream DevelopmentDownstream Development
0
20
2006 2015
6,5 7
2006 2015
Rosneft total
Potential refinery in the Far East
0
20
2006 2015
Siberian Refineries Potential refinery in China
Samara group of refineries
0
20
2006 2015
12 12
2006 2015
20 20
2006 2015
31
Improved Credit Profile, Reduced Cost of DebtImproved Credit Profile, Reduced Cost of Debt
§ Borrowing margin reduced 5 times in two years
BB+(Developing
outlook)
B+
B
Baa2 (Positive outlook)
Baa2
Ba3
BB+ (Positive outlook)
BB+
as of 31.12.2004 as of 31.12.2005 As of 31.12.2006
S&P Moody's Fitch
Evolution of Rosneft Credit RatingsEvolution of Rosneft Credit Ratings Weighted Average Cost of DebtWeighted Average Cost of Debt
2.40%
3.60%
2.68% 0.74%
4.39%
5.32%
6.00%
7.07%
6.06%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
as of 31.12.04 as of 31.12.05 as of 31.12.2006
1m Libor Av.-Weighted Margin Av.-Weighted Rate
32
Enhanced Governance, TransparencyEnhanced Governance, Transparency
§ Simplified corporate structure following successful consolidation
§ New 9 member Board of Directors• 3 Independents
§ 3 new committees• Audit
• Strategy
• Compensation
§ 3 Listings• LSE
• RTS
• MICEX
§ New diverse shareholder base
Quarterly US GAAP and M&DAQuarterly US GAAP and M&DA2006 Highlights2006 Highlights
Shareholder BaseShareholder Base
§ Russian State§ Institutional Investors from >40 countries§ ~150,000 ordinary Russians§ NOCs§ Supermajors
33
Rosneft: Emerging SuperRosneft: Emerging Super--NOCNOC
National Oil CompanyNational Oil Company Super-MajorSuper-Major
§ Access to resources
§ Access to M&A
§ Insulation from political risk
§ Access to policy-makers
§ Cooperation with the State
§ Capital discipline
§ Cost efficiency
§ Shareholder value creation
§ Corporate governance
§ Transparency