oim 413 logistics and transportation lecture 1: the … · 2016-08-10 · the costs of congestion...

OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation

Lecture 1: The Transportation Planning

Process

Professor Anna Nagurney

John F. Smith Memorial Professorand

Director – Virtual Center for SupernetworksDepartment of Operations & Information Management

Professor Anna Nagurney OIM 413 Logistics and Transportation - Lecture 1

Some Background

Transportation provides the infrastructure for themovement of people and goods, and the ties that bindglobal economic activities.

Transportation planning is essential in the complex NetworkEconomy since without appropriate transportation networksgoods that are produced cannot be delivered in a timelymanner and people cannot reach their intended destinations.


Transportation and Logistics

According to SelectUSA, spending in the U.S. logisticsand transportation industry totaled $1.45 trillion in2014, and represented 8.3 percent of annual grossdomestic product (GDP).


Supply Chains

Integrated supply chain networks in the United States andbeyond link producers and consumers through multipletransportation modes, including air and express deliveryservices, freight rail, maritime transport, and truck transport.

In order to serve customers efficiently, multinational anddomestic firms provide tailored logistics and transportationsolutions that seek to achieve coordinated goods movementfrom origin to destination through each supply chain networksegment.


A General Supply Chain


Examples of Supply Chains


Challenges Today

The challenges faced today in transportation and logistics arenumerous and include:

• congestion,

• inadequate services, and

• deteriorating and inadequate infrastructure.


Most Congested US Metropolitan Areas in 2015


The Costs of Congestion

According to the 2015 Urban Mobility report, prepared by theTexas A&M Transportation Institute and INRIX Inc.,Americans spend 6.9 billion hours battling traffic and burn 3.1billion gallons of fuel while nudging inch by inch down theroadway.

The total nationwide price tag: $160 billion or $960 percommuter.


The Costs of Congestion

There is also a freight capacity crisis in parts of the USespecially in the Northeast.

The United States economy depends on trucks todeliver nearly 70 percent of all freight transportedannually in the U.S., accounting for $671 billion worthof manufactured and retail goods transported by truckin the U.S. alone.


Congestion and Freight

Peak-Period Congestion on High-Volume Portions of the NationalHighway System: 2035

Federal Highway Administration


Traffic Congestion is Increasing Globally

Traffic Congestion in Indiaremixconcepts.blogspot.com


Urbanization and Congestion

Today, over half of the world’s population lives in cities andthe United Nations is predicting that by the year 2050, 7 outof 10 people will be living in an urban area.

According to INRIX, the Ford Motor Company expectsthat the number of vehicles on the roads will grow fromabout 1 billion today to between 2-4 billion during thisperiod of time

If traffic continues to increase at 3 times the rate ofemployment and GDP growth as it did in 2013, thenthe 10-day long traffic jams in China and the 2 to 3hour (each way) daily commutes that drivers face incertain parts of the world, including Sao Paolo, Brazil,could occur in Europe and even in North America.


Transportation Networks Needed Also in Disasters

Networks are the fundamental critical infrastructure forthe movement of people and goods in our globalizedNetwork Economy.

Transportation networks also serve as the primary conduit forrescue, recovery, and reconstruction in disasters.


Recent disasters have vividly demonstrated the

importance and vulnerability of transportation

• The biggest blackout in North America, August 14, 2003;

• Indonesian tsunami and earthquake, December 26, 2004;

• Hurricane Katrina, August 23, 2005;

• Minneapolis I35 Bridge collapse, August 1, 2007;

• The Sichuan earthquake on May 12, 2008;

• The Haiti earthquake that struck on January 12, 2010 andthe Chilean one on February 27, 2010;

• The triple disaster in Japan on March 11, 2011;

• Superstorm Sandy, October 29, 2012, second costliesthurricane in US history.


Hurricane Katrina in 2005

Hurricane Katrina has been called an “American tragedy,”in which essential services failed completely.


The Haitian and Chilean Earthquakes


The Triple Disaster in Japan on March 11, 2011

The world reeled from the aftereffects of the triple disaster inJapan with disruptions in the high tech, automotive, and evenfood industries with potential additional ramifications becauseof the radiation.


Superstorm Sandy and Power Outages

Manhattan without power October 30, 2012 as a result of thedevastation wrought by Superstorm Sandy.


Haiyan Typhoon in the Philippines in 2013

Typhoon Haiyan was a very powerful tropical cyclone thatdevastated portions of Southeast Asia, especially thePhilippines, on November 8, 2013. It is the deadliestPhilippine typhoon on record, killing at least 6,190 people inthat country alone. Haiyan was also the strongest stormrecorded at landfall. As of January 2014, bodies were stillbeing found. The overall economic losses from TyphoonHaiyan totaled $10 billion.


Nepal Earthquake in 2015

The 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Nepal on April 25,2015, and the aftershocks that followed, killed nearly 9,000people and injured 22,000 others. This disaster also pushedabout 700,000 people below the poverty line in the Himalayannation, which is one of the world’s poorest. About 500,000homes were made unlivable by the quakes, leaving about threemillion people homeless. Much infrastructure was also badlydamaged and 1/3 of the healthcare facilities devastated.According to The Wall Street Journal, Nepal needs $6.66billion to rebuild.


The Impact of Disasters

Disasters have brought an unprecedented impact on humanlives in the 21st century and the number of disasters isgrowing. From January to October 2005, an estimated97,490 people were killed in disasters globally; 88,117of them because of natural disasters.

Frequency of disasters [Source: Emergency Events Database

(2008)]


Transportation Planning Process

We will first focus on urban transportation planningsince cities are complex and such systems arelarge-scale. We can extrapolate what we learn fromsuch transportation networks to other transportationsystems.

Phase I - Base Year Inventory

Make inventory of existing network + existing traffic patterns.

• Origin/Destination (O/D) travel demand tables

• counters on roads

• inventory of planning factors

B is it industrial?B what is the income distribution?B types of employment.



Collection of data to be used in model to predict the trafficflow pattern.

∗ The data must be extrapolated if it is to be used forpredicting future traffic patterns.


US Interstate Highway Network

www.freightcenter.com



Phase II - Model Building

Interested in finding out relationships among parameters of thesystem.

3 categories of relationships

1. Trip Generation Models# of trips generated in a certain area and/or attracted to acertain area.

Ox , Dy :

Ox = # of trips produced (generated) at zone x (productionzone) Dy = # of trips attracted to zone y (attraction zone)


2. Trip Distribution Models

Given Ox ’s and Dy ’s find the origin/destination (O/D) traveldemand table.

Will then know how many travelers from Ox will go to Dy ; forall x , y pairs.

y1

x1

y2

x2

y3

Dy

Ox



Travel Demand:

dxy = kOxDy f (cxy)

cxy : travel cost from zone x to zone y

∗ dxy increases as cxy decreases.

3. Traffic Assignment Models

Given O/D table dxy ’s, find how this travel demand isdistributed among different routes and modes oftransportation.



Relates traffic flow pattern to O/D pairs and characteristics ofnetworks.

Can be applied to:

• communication networks, including the Internet

• energy networks (oil, gas, etc.)

• electrical networks

• economic and financial networks.


Other Networks that Behave Like Congested

Transportation Networks

The Internet, electric power networks, and even multitieredfinancial networks behave like transportation networks!


Another Type of Traffic Congestion!

www.darkroastedblend.com



Three Stage Modelfor Transportation Planning

Trip

Generation

Trip

Distribution

Traffic

Assignment

{Ox} {Dy}

trip ends

{dxy}

O/D demand pattern link load

pattern

update for congested networks



Phase III - Travel Forecasts

Extrapolation - to predict parameters for which we have datafrom Phase I.

Data from Phase I may be crude.

Phase IV - Network Evaluation

Goal is to compare networks.

What is the traffic that will be generated by the 3 or 4networks- evaluation of both costs + benefits.


Amherst Area View from Mt. SugarloafTravel Monkeys’ Gallery


References

⇒ Beckmann M., McGuire C.B., Winsten C.B. (1956) Studies in theEconomics of Transportation. Yale University Press, New Haven,Connecticut; also published as Rand-RM-1488-PR, RandCorporation, Santa Monica, CA, May 12, 1955http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/specpub-BMW.pdf

⇒ Sheffi Y. (1985) Urban Transportation Networks: EquilibriumAnalysis with Mathematical Programming Methods. Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs, New Jerseyhttp://web.mit.edu/sheffi/www/selectedMedia/sheffi urban trans networks.pdf

⇒ Nagurney A. (1999) Network Economics: A Variational InequalityApproach, second and revised edition. Kluwer Academic Publishers,Boston, Massachusettshttp://supernet.som.umass.edu/bookser/netbook.htm

⇒ Nagurney A. (2002) Network Economics (Fulbright Lectures)http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/austria lectures/fulmain.html


http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/archive/reprints/specpub-BMW.pdf

http://web.mit.edu/sheffi/www/selectedMedia/sheffi_urban_trans_networks.pdf

http://supernet.som.umass.edu/bookser/netbook.htm

http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/austria_lectures/fulmain.html

Additional Reading

I Pocket Guide to Transportation (2016), Bureau of TransportationStatistics (available online).

I For additional background material, see the Virtual Center forSupernetworks website: http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu


http://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu

oim 413 logistics and transportation lecture 1: the … · 2016-08-10 · the costs of congestion...

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