oil prices: cycle, bubble, or fundamental shift c.e. bishop director, economics marathon oil corp
TRANSCRIPT
Oil Prices: Cycle, Bubble, Oil Prices: Cycle, Bubble, or or
Fundamental ShiftFundamental Shift
C.E. BishopDirector, EconomicsMarathon Oil Corp.
Oil Market Perceptions Oil Market Perceptions
• Demand in the last decade has outpaced expectations as Asian economies grow
• Non-OPEC production has also failed to keep pace
• OPEC production and capacity has failed to meet expectations
Oil Prices and Open Interest Oil Prices and Open Interest in Crude Oil Futures and Optionsin Crude Oil Futures and Options
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04
Con
trac
ts
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Dollars per bbl
OPEN INTEREST-FUTURES & OPTIONS (left scale)
WTI SPOT (right scale)
Source: NymexSource: Nymex
Reality CheckReality Check
• World Oil Demand is near long run expectations
• Non OPEC production exceeded expectations
• OPEC Capacity increases have not been necessary
EIA World Oil Demand ForecastsEIA World Oil Demand Forecastsmillion barrels per daymillion barrels per day
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
7 0
7 5
8 0
8 5
1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
1 9 9 5 F o r e c a s t
2 0 0 5 A n n u a lE n e r g y O u t l o o k
Source: US Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Source: US Dept. of Energy, Energy Information AdministrationAdministration
China’s Increasing Share of World Oil China’s Increasing Share of World Oil Consumption Presents Logistical and Consumption Presents Logistical and
Geopolitical ChallengesGeopolitical ChallengesC h i n a ' s S h a r e o f W o r l d O i l D e m a n d
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
6 %
7 %
8 %
9 %
1 9 9 0 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 5
World Crude Oil Refinery DistillationWorld Crude Oil Refinery Distillationthousand b/dthousand b/d
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
7 0
7 5
8 0
8 5 J
an-9
6
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan-
05
3 0 %
4 0 %
5 0 %
6 0 %
7 0 %
8 0 %
9 0 %
1 0 0 %R u n s C a p a c i t y C a p a c i t y U t i l i z a t i o n ( r i g h t s c a l e )
EIA World Oil Production OutlookEIA World Oil Production Outlookmillion barrels per daymillion barrels per day
5 0
5 5
6 0
6 5
7 0
7 5
8 0
8 5
1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5
1 9 9 5 F o r e c a s t
2 0 0 5 A n n u a lE n e r g y O u t l o o k
Source: US Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Source: US Dept. of Energy, Energy Information AdministrationAdministration
Actual 2005 Production Actual 2005 Production vs 1995 EIA Outlookvs 1995 EIA Outlook
million barrels per day
- 1 2 . 0- 1 0 . 0
- 8 . 0- 6 . 0- 4 . 0- 2 . 0
0 . 02 . 04 . 06 . 08 . 0
1 0 . 01 2 . 0
O P E C N o n - O P E C
Oil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratiosOil reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios
Source: British Petroleum plcSource: British Petroleum plc
Persian Gulf Imports as a Persian Gulf Imports as a Percent of Total Oil DemandPercent of Total Oil Demand
North America North America 12%12%
Europe 19%Europe 19%
Asia 46%Asia 46%
U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration: International Energy Outlook 2004
Three Key IssuesThree Key Issues
• Access
• Access
• Access
ConclusionsConclusions
• Consumers make the right decisions, Consumers make the right decisions, whatever the price signals.whatever the price signals.
• Access will determine the potential for Access will determine the potential for Non-OPEC production, and the ultimate Non-OPEC production, and the ultimate response to the current price level.response to the current price level.
• Prices will moderate if the industry is Prices will moderate if the industry is permitted to do what it does best: find, permitted to do what it does best: find, produce and deliver affordable energy.produce and deliver affordable energy.