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TRANSCRIPT
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DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials
contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or
suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in
respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this
presentation, which are utilised expressly at the user’s own risk. In particular, this
presentation and the information and materials in this presentation are not, and should not be
construed as, an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any regulated
precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or
making any recommendation or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the
purchase, sale or other disposition of, any regulated precious metal related products or any
other regulated products, securities or investments including, without limitation, any advice to
the effect that any precious metal related transaction is appropriate or suitable for any
investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in any
regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or
investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in this
presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek
advice from their financial, legal, tax and accounting advisers, take into account their
individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with
such investment decisions. This presentation does not, and should not be construed as acting
to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or
any other regulated products, securities or investments.
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Platinum
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Platinum in 2012
• Platinum market in deficit of 375,000 oz
• Lowest primary supply for 12 years
• Marginal increase in autocatalyst demand
• Glass and electrical demand sharply down
• Strongly rising jewellery demand from China
• Lower prices retard autocatalyst recycling
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Platinum supplies
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South Africa Russia North America Others
million oz
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Platinum supplies
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
South Africa
Russia
North America
Zimbabwe
Others
Total
4,860
835
350
340
100
6,485
4,095
800
295
340
110
5,640
(15.7)
-4.2
-15.7
0.0
10.0
-13.0
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South African net supply change 2011-2012
4,860 + 100
- 500
- 175 - 55
- 135
4,095
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2011 supply Safetystoppages
Strikes Stockmovements
Mineclosures
Other 2012 supply
‘000 oz
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Platinum supplies
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
South Africa
Russia
North America
Zimbabwe
Others
Total
4,860
835
350
340
100
6,485
4,095
800
295
340
110
5,640
(15.7)
(4.2)
(15.7)
0.0
10.0
(13.0)
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
6,050
3,185
1,755
2,420
655
7,905
(1,830)
(25)
6,480
3,240
2,050
2,480
460
8.905
(2,045)
430
7.1
1.7
16.8
2.5
(29.8)
2.4
11.7
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Gross platinum autocatalyst demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe Japan North America China ROW
million oz
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0
2
4
6
8
10
Europe Japan N. Am China Rest
World light duty diesel vehicle production
2011 2012
million units
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pt demand in emissions control catalysts
NRMM HDV LDD LDG
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
6,050
3,185
1,975
2,420
655
7,905
(1,830)
(25)
6,480
3,240
1,570
2,480
460
8.905
(2,045)
430
7.1
1.7
(20.5)
2.5
(29.8)
2.4
11.7
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Platinum industrial demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
6,050
3,185
1,975
2,475
655
7,905
(1,830)
(25)
6,480
3,240
1,570
2,780
460
8.905
(2,045)
430
7.1
1.7
(20.5)
12.3
(29.8)
2.4
11.7
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Gross platinum jewellery demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe Japan North America China ROW
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
6,050
3,185
1,975
2,475
460
7,905
(1,830)
(25)
6,480
3,240
1,570
2,780
455
8.905
(2,045)
430
7.1
1.7
(20.5)
12.3
(1.1)
2.4
11.7
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0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Small bars & coins ETFs Large bars Other
million oz
Platinum investment demand
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Platinum ETF investment demand
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Platinum ETF holdings Platinum price
million oz $/oz
2011 2012
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Platinum supply and demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Gross demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
6,485
8,095
(2,060)
(25)
5,640
8,045
(2,030)
430
(13.0)
(0.6)
(1.5)
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Platinum recycling
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pt average price
million oz $/oz
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Platinum supply and demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Gross demand
Recycling
Net demand
Stock movement
6,485
8,095
(2,060)
6,035
450
5,640
8,045
(2,030)
6,015
(375)
(13.0)
(0.6)
(1.5)
(0.3)
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Palladium
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Palladium in 2012
• Palladium swung into deficit of 1.07 million oz
• Lower primary and secondary supplies
• Russian state stock sales down by two-thirds
• Autocatalyst demand at an all-time high
• Weaker industrial and jewellery demand
• Net investment changed by over 1 million oz
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Palladium supplies
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South Africa Russia North America Others
million oz
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Palladium supplies
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
South Africa
Russia primary
Russia stocks
North America
Zimbabwe
Others
Total
2,560
2,705
775
900
265
155
7,360
2,330
2,630
250
905
265
165
6,545
(9.0)
(2.8)
(67.7)
0.6
0.0
6.5
(11.1)
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
7,355
6,155
2,465
595
1,095
9,735
(1,850)
(530)
7,360
6,615
2,480
505
(565)
8,450
(2,345)
1,255
0.1
7.5
(0.6)
(15.1)
(151.6)
(13.2)
26.8
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Gross palladium autocatalyst demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe Japan North America China ROW
million oz
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
7,355
6,155
2,465
595
1,095
9,735
(1,850)
(530)
7,360
6,615
2,365
505
(565)
8,450
(2,345)
1,255
0.1
7.5
(4.1)
(15.1)
(151.6)
(13.2)
26.8
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
7,355
6,155
2,465
505
1,095
9,735
(1,850)
(530)
7,360
6,615
2,365
445
(565)
8,450
(2,345)
1,255
0.1
7.5
((4.1)
(11.9)
(151.6)
(13.2)
26.8
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Gross palladium jewellery demand
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Europe Japan North America China ROW
million oz
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Autocatalyst
Industrial
Jewellery
Investment
Gross Demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
7,355
6,155
2,465
505
(565)
9,735
(1,850)
(530)
7,360
6,615
2,365
445
470
8,450
(2,345)
1,255
0.1
7.5
(4.1)(((4.1)
(11.9)
-
(13.2)
26.8
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Palladium ETF investment demand
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Palladium ETF holdings Palladium price
million oz $/oz
2011 2012
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Palladium supply and demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Gross demand
Recycling
Stock Movement
7,360
8,560
(2,385)
(530)
6,545
9,895
(2,280)
1,255
(11.1)
15.6
(4.4)
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Palladium recycling
0
200
400
600
800
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Autocatalyst Electrical Jewellery Pd average price
million oz $/oz
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Palladium supply and demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Gross demand
Recycling
Net demand
Stock movement
7,360
8,560
(2,385)
(6,175
1,185
6,545
9,895
(2,280)
7,615
(1,070)
(11.1)
15.6
(4.4)
23.3
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Rhodium
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Rhodium supply and demand
‘000 oz 2011 2012 % change
Supplies
Gross demand
Recycling
Net demand
Stock movement
765
908
(277)
(631
134
722
966
(259)
707
15
(5.6)
6.4
(6.5)
12.0
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Outlook
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Platinum outlook
• Primary supply may be a little higher this year
• Gross autocatalyst demand unlikely to grow in 2013
• Jewellery demand not quite as strong as last year
• Industrial demand expected to rebound
• Autocatalyst recycling is likely to increase
• Market balance sensitive to investment demand
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1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
$/oz
2011 2012 2013
High: $1,710
Avg: $1,570
Low: $1,415
Platinum price forecast:
the next six months
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Palladium outlook
• Supplies are likely to fall again in 2013
• Russian state stock sales to diminish further
• Autocat demand to grow with higher vehicle output
• Industrial demand to be no more than stable
• Market undersupply to persist, supports investment
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
$/oz
2011 2012 2013
High: $830
Avg: $740
Low: $635
Palladium price forecast:
the next six months
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