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DISCLAIMER Johnson Matthey PLC endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the information and materials contained within this presentation, but makes no warranty as to accuracy, completeness or suitability for any particular purpose. Johnson Matthey PLC accepts no liability whatsoever in respect of reliance placed by the user on information and materials contained in this presentation, which are utilised expressly at the user’s own risk. In particular, this presentation and the information and materials in this presentation are not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments, or making any recommendation or providing any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of, any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any precious metal related transaction is appropriate or suitable for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the information or materials in this presentation. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial, legal, tax and accounting advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decisions. This presentation does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote any regulated precious metal related products or any other regulated products, securities or investments.
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Platinum in 2013
• Forecast deficit to grow to 605,000 oz
• Global supplies show slight improvement on 2012
• Modest reduction in autocatalyst demand more
than offset by rebound in industrial sectors
• Gross jewellery demand marginally down on 2012
• Strong growth in physical investment
• Autocatalyst recycling up sharply
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Platinum supplies
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa Russia North America Zimbabwe Others Total
4,090 800 310 340 110
5,650
4,120 780 315 400 125
5,740
0.7 (2.5)
1.6 17.6 13.6 1.6
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South Africa Platinum supplies
3500
4000
4500
5000
Net changes 2012 to 2013 ‘000 oz
- 115 No change
+ 300
- 300
+ 145
4,120 4,090
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Industrial Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
6,050 3,190 1,755 2,420
655 7,905
(1,830) (25)
6,480 3,125 2,050 2,480
460 8.905
(2,045) 430
7.1 (2.0) 16.8 2.5
(29.8) 2.4
11.7
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0
2
4
6
8
10
Europe Japan N. Am China Rest
World light duty diesel vehicle production
2012 2013
million units
0
1
2
3
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pt demand in emissions control catalysts
Non-road Heavy dutyLight diesel Light gasoline
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
6,050 3,190 2,780
655 7,905
(1,830) (25)
6,480 3,125 2,740
460 8.905
(2,045) 430
7.1 (2.0) (1.4)
(29.8) 2.4
11.7
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Gross platinum jewellery demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China Others
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Industrial Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
6,050 3,190 2,780 1,605 2,420
655 7,905
(1,830) (25)
6,480 3,125 2,740 1,790 2,480
460 8.905
(2,045) 430
7.1 (2.0) (1.4) 11.5 2.5
(29.8) 2.4
11.7
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Platinum industrial demand
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Chemical Electrical Glass Petroleum Medical & other
million oz
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Platinum demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Industrial Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
6,050 3,190 2,780 1,605
455 7,905
(1,830) (25)
6,480 3,125 2,740 1,790
765 8.905
(2,045) 430
7.1 (2.0) (1.4) 11.5 68.1 2.4
11.7
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Platinum ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Absa Price
million oz US$/oz
2007 2008 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013
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Platinum supply and demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Stock Movement
5,650 8,030
(2,040) (25)
5,740 8,420
(2,075) 430
1.6 4.9 1.7
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Primary and secondary platinum supply
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Primary Secondary Ratio
primary to secondary ratio million oz
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Platinum supply and demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Net demand Stock movement
5,650 8,030
(2,040) 5,990 (340)
5,740 8,420
(2,075) 6,345 (605)
1.6 4.9 1.7 5.9
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Palladium in 2013
• Market in reduced deficit of 740,000 oz
• Primary supplies marginally down on 2012, due
to reduction in Russian state stock sales
• Autocatalyst demand at another record high
• Weaker industrial and jewellery demand
• Net physical investment significantly down
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Palladium supplies
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
South Africa Russian mining Russian stocks North America Others
million oz
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Palladium supplies
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change South Africa Russia primary Russia stocks North America Zimbabwe Others Total
2,320 2,630
260 895 265 160
6,530
2,350 2,600
100 930 310 140
6,430
1.3 (1.1)
(61.5) 3.9
17.0 (12.5) (1.5)
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Industrial Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
7,355 6,705 2,465
595 1,095 9,735
(1,850) (530)
7,360 6,970 2,480
505 (565) 8,450
(2,345) 1,255
0.1 4.0
(0.6) (15.1)
(151.6) (13.2)
26.8
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Europe Japan N. Am China Rest
World light duty gasoline vehicle
production
2012 2013
million units
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pd demand in emissions control
catalysts
Non-road Heavy dutyLight diesel Light gasoline
million oz
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
7,355 6,705
445 1,095 9,735
(1,850) (530)
7,360 6,970
390 (565) 8,450
(2,345) 1,255
0.1 4.0
(12.4) (151.6) (13.2)
26.8
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Gross palladium jewellery demand
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China Others
million oz
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Industrial Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
6,050 6,705
445 2,350 2,420
655 7,905
(1,830) (25)
6,480 6,970
390 2,195 2,480
460 8.905
(2,045) 430
7.1 4.0
(12.4) (6.6)
2.5 (29.8)
2.4 11.7
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Palladium industrial demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Chemical Dental Electrical Other
million oz
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Palladium demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Autocatalyst Jewellery Industrial Investment Gross Demand Recycling Stock Movement
7,355 6,705
445 2,350
470 9,735
(1,850) (530)
7,360 6,970
390 2,195
75 8,450
(2,345) 1,255
0.1 4.0
(4.1)((12.4) (6.6)
(84.0) (13.2)
26.8
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Palladium ETF holdings Apr 2007 - Oct 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
London ETFS ZKB US ETFS Others Price
million oz
2007 2009 2008 2011 2010 2013 2012
US$/oz
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Primary and secondary palladium supply (excludes Russian stock sales)
0
2
4
6
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Primary Secondary ratio
million oz primary to
secondary ratio
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Palladium supply and demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Net demand Stock movement
6,530 9,970
(2,290) (7,680
(1,150)
6,430 9,630
(2,460) 7,170 (740)
(1.5) (3.4)
7.4 (6.6)
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Rhodium supply and demand
‘000 oz 2012 2013 % change Supplies Gross demand Recycling Net demand Stock movement
721 974
(252) (722
(1)
721 1,016 (281)
735 (14)
0 4.3
(11.5) 1.8
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Platinum outlook
• Limited potential for expansion in mine supplies
• Autocatalyst recycling should increase further
• Industrial demand expected to grow in all key sectors
• Autocatalyst demand rising in all diesel applications
• Jewellery demand retains scope for growth
• Third consecutive year of deficit likely in 2014
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1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
$/oz
2011 2012 2013
High $1580
Ave $1465
Low $1360
Platinum price forecast: the next six months
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Palladium outlook
• Primary supplies to fall in 2014
• Autocatalyst recycling to show continued growth
• Autocatalyst demand will rise with vehicle production
• Further decline in industrial and jewellery demand
• Market facing another significant deficit in 2014 with
or without an Absa ETF
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
$/oz
2011 2012 2013
Palladium price forecast: the next six months
High $815
Low $680
Ave $760