oecd employment outlook 2015 - selected figures
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OECD Employment Outlook 2015 Selected figures
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
The jobs recovery remains incomplete
Employment-to-population ratio
As a percentage of the population aged 15 and over
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
30
40
50
60
70
%
Current(Q4 2014)
Start of the crisis(Q4 2007)
Projected value(Q4 2016)
Unemployment remains well above its pre-crisis levels in the
majority of OECD countries
Unemployment rate
As a percentage of the labour force
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
Current value(Q4 2014)
Start of the crisis(Q4 2007)
Projected value(Q4 2016)
Long-term unemployment has risen in a large majority of
countries
Incidence of long-term unemployed (more than one year)
As a percentage of total unemployed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
Q4 2007 Q4 2014
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
The long-term career prospects of many recent school
leavers could be permanently compromised
NEET rate As a percentage of youth aged 15-29
0 10 20 30 40
LuxembourgJapan
NorwayNetherlands
DenmarkIceland
SwitzerlandSweden
GermanyAustriaFinland
Czech RepublicAustralia
New ZealandSloveniaCanada
United KingdomFranceEstonia
IsraelOECD
BelgiumPortugal
European UnionPoland
United StatesHungary
KoreaIreland
Slovak RepublicChile
SpainMexico
ItalyGreeceTurkey
2014
2007
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Minimum wages can help underpin the incomes of
low-paid workers
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75%
2013 2007
Minimum wages As a percent of median wages of full-time employees
Note: Germany: the minimum-wage level in 2015 is expressed as proportion of the projected 2015 median wage.
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Skills matters for wage inequality…
- 4.0
- 1.6
- 0.9
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.2
- 0.1
- 0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.4
2.1
3.6
- 6 - 4 - 2 0 2 4
United States
France
Italy
England/N. Ireland
Canada
Australia
Germany
Ireland
Sweden
Spain
Flanders
Netherlands
Poland
Denmark
Finland
Austria
Norway
Estonia
Korea
Czech Republic
Japan
Slovak Republic
- 12.1
- 7.8
- 6.6
- 5.7
- 5.6
- 5.4
- 4.7
- 4.5
- 2.8
- 2.5
- 2.2
- 1.9
- 1.6
- 1.6
- 0.1
0.8
1.1
2.0
2.7
3.0
3.4
5.6
- 15 - 10 - 5 0 5 10
United States
Flanders
Estonia
Spain
Japan
Italy
Slovak Republic
Germany
Czech Republic
Ireland
Korea
Austria
Canada
Poland
Australia
France
Netherlands
England/N. Ireland
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Sweden
-7.9
-6.3
-4.6
-4.2
-3.9
-2.6
-2.5
-2.1
-1.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.4
1.5
2.6
3.2
- 10 - 5 0 5
Netherlands
Japan
Korea
Denmark
Estonia
Italy
Canada
Ireland
Germany
Poland
United States
Flanders
Finland
Spain
Austria
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Australia
France
England/N. Ireland
Sweden
Norway
Wage inequality and skills inequality
Percentage change in D9/D1 ratio after imposing the skills dispersion of the average
PIAAC country
Wage inequality and skills prices
Percentage change in D9/D1 ratio after imposing the skills prices of the
average PIAAC country
Wage inequality and skills use
Percentage change in Gini after imposing the distribution of numeracy proficiency onto that of numeracy use
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
…and skills play a role in explaining differences in wages
between workforce groups Wage ratio before and after controlling for skills distribution and price effects
0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7
Male/female wage ratio
0.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.6
Native/foreign-born wage ratio
0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7
Tertiary/non tertiary parental education wage ratio
0.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.7
Male-female wage ratio
Raw
After controlling forskills distribution
After controlling forskills prices
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Key elements for successful activation strategies
Inclusive and resilient labour
markets
Opportunities
Employability Motivation
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
%
Public expenditure on Active Labour Market
Programmes (ALMPs) varies a lot across OECD countries
Expenditure on ALMPs As a percentage of GDP in 2012 or last year available
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90%
Involvement of PES in finding the present job As a percentage of those who have started their job
in the last 12 months
Unemployed who contacted the PES office to find work
As a percentage of all unemployed
The Public Employment Service can play
an important role as a job broker
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Mobility only partially smooths out earnings inequality
Gini coefficient for active persons
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Index
Long-term inequality
Short-term inequality
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Index
Long-term inequality
Short-term inequality
Monthly earnings, simulation over 10 years
Monthly earnings, simulation over 20 years
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Chronic unemployment is a key determinant of
low long-term earnings
- 10.00 20.00 30.00
United KingdomNetherlandsKoreaAustraliaSweden*JapanDenmarkCzech RepublicSwitzerlandTurkeyGermanyItalyUnited StatesBelgiumAveragePolandSlovak RepublicFranceAustriaEstoniaSloveniaPortugalSpainFinlandGreece
Women Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile
Incidence of unemployment by tercile of the distribution of long-term earnings (cumulative months of unemployment over ten years)
0 10 20 30
Switzerland
Netherlands
Australia
Korea
Japan
United Kingdom
Belgium
Czech Republic
Sweden*
United States
Germany
Slovak Republic
France
Average
Italy
Poland
Turkey
Portugal
Slovenia
Denmark
Austria
Finland
Spain
Estonia
Greece
%
Men
0 10 20 30
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Korea
Australia
Sweden*
Japan
Denmark
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Turkey
Germany
Italy
United States
Belgium
Average
Poland
Slovak Republic
France
Austria
Estonia
Slovenia
Portugal
Spain
Finland
Greece
%
Women
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Low long-term earnings are closely associated with
part-time work and, to a lesser extent, with temporary work
0 10 20 30
Turkey
Czech Rep.
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Estonia
Slovak Rep.
Austria
Switzerland
Belgium
Portugal
Australia
Denmark
Average
Poland
Finland
Germany
France
Spain
Italy
Greece
%
0 20 40 60 80
Turkey
Portugal
Greece
Czech Rep.
Estonia
Slovak Rep.
Spain
Italy
Finland
Poland
France
Average
United Kingdom
Denmark
Germany
Austria
Australia
Belgium
Switzerland
Netherlands
%
0 10 20 30 40
United Kingdom
Belgium
Switzerland
Estonia
Germany
Austria
Denmark
Slovak Rep.
Netherlands
Czech Rep.
France
Finland
Slovenia
Average
Italy
Turkey
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Poland
Australia
%
Incidence of involuntary part-time jobs
Incidence of voluntary part-time jobs
Incidence of temporary jobs
0 50Bottom tercile Middle tercile Top tercile
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment
Improving job quality is a major challenge
for emerging economies
0
5
10
Earnings quality in PPP-adjusted US dollars (2010)
0
10
20
30
40
Labour market insecurity Percentage of time workers can expect to spend unemployed or extremely low-paid
05
10152025
Quality of the working environment As measured by the incidence of very long working hours
OECD Employment Outlook 20015 www.oecd.org/employment