ocean model development (and relation to ice shelves) ipcc summarized top two impacts of physical...
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Ocean Model Development (and relation to ice shelves)
• IPCC summarized top two impacts of physical climate change as (a) air temperature, and (b) sea level• Without any physical model of sea level, IPCC reported a seal level projection• Ocean models could be argued to be relevant to sea level change projections• Ocean modeling has no meaningful plan to address one of IPCC two main’s concerns
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Relevance ofIce-Shelf Ocean Interaction
Sea Level Rise (SLR) projection 2100
Changes in SL will have some regional character:past -> ‘fingerprints’polar wanderingself gravityocean dynamic height
Contributions are Steric and Eustatic
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Eustatic Component –Role of the Ice Sheets
Main concern is marine portions of Greenland and Antarctica
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What’s happening inice shelf – ocean research
Observational programsamong the harshest /difficult environments to sample (ocean beneath kms of ice)
Theoretical developmentsamong the most challenging fluid dynamical behaviors (calving)
Modeling Initiativesrequires major reworking of ocean codes(kms of surface pressure, grounding line migration)
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Ice Processes
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Ocean Processes –Water Mass Transformation
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Ocean Processes –Other Considerations
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What have we observed in the last decade or so?
Any big changes?
Yes!
The perimeter of the ice sheets, where they are floating,
and where there exists warm ocean waters is undergoing dramatic change.
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Greenland Change:Jakobshavn Isbrae
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Why Change @Jakobshavn Isbrae?
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Antarctica Change:Pine Island Glacier (PIG)
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Why Change @Pine Island Glacier?
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Some Recent Ocean Observations:Depths and Temperatures at
Jakobshavn, August 2009
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Some Future Ocean Observations:2010-2015
Greenland – Modest Ice Tongues Jakobshavn, Helheim(From Boat or Helicopter:CTD, XCTD, Glider, AUV)
Antarctica – Massive Ice ShelvesPIG, WISSARDS
(From Icebreaker or Drilling:Profiling CTD, AUV)
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… and now on to ice-shelf – ocean interaction theory and model(l)ing …
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