oakland unified school district demographic trends and downtown development
DESCRIPTION
Oakland Unified School District Demographic Trends and Downtown Development. September 6, 2006 Shelley Lapkoff www.Demographers.com. Topics Covered. District-wide enrollment changes Downtown developments Housing forecast Student yields in new development Student yields in older housing - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Oakland Unified School District
Demographic Trends and Downtown Development
September 6, 2006
Shelley Lapkoffwww.Demographers.com
Topics Covered
• District-wide enrollment changes
• Downtown developments
– Housing forecast
– Student yields in new development
– Student yields in older housing
– Forecast of students from Downtown housing developments
District-wide Enrollment Trends
• Cycle of events creating enrollment decline
• Significant enrollment decline after the dotcom bust
• Enrollment decline created financial problems• Financial problems led to the state takeover• State takeover and closing schools resulted in
further enrollment decline
• Enrollment decline is likely to be temporary, with OUSD eventually returning to more normal enrollment levels
K-12 Enrollments (Excludes Charter Students)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
% Change in Annual Enrollments Excluding Charters
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%19
81>
82
1982
>83
1983
>84
1984
>85
1985
>86
1986
>87
1987
>88
1988
>89
1989
>90
1990
>91
1991
>92
1992
>93
1993
>94
1994
>95
1995
>96
1996
>97
1997
>98
1998
>99
1999
>00
2000
>01
2001
>02
2002
>03
2003
>04
2004
>05
Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
Stu
de
nts
Actual Loss with EFC excluded
Kindergarten Enrollments, 1981 to 2005
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,00019
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
Ratio of Kindergartners to Births Five Years Earlier
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year of Enrollment
Per
cen
tag
e o
f b
irth
s th
at r
esu
lt i
n
kin
der
gar
ten
en
roll
men
t With EFC
Elementary Enrollments
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
Including Charters
Middle School Enrollments
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
Including Charters
High School Enrollments
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Stu
de
nts
Downtown Development
• Over 14,000 housing units to be built, including 1,800 already built
• Most developments will be high-rise luxury condominiums that do not contain many children
• “Affordable” units can significantly impact OUSD enrollments
# Units
Completed 1,779
Under Construction 2,391
Planning Approval 2,529
In Planning 3,389
Subtotal 10,088
Oak to 9th 3,100 (maximum)
OUSD Admin Bldg 1,200 (average)
Total 14,388
Downtown Oakland Housing Projects as of Summer, 2006
Enrollment Impact Depends on Student Yield
• Only three students live in Downtown’s recently-constructed market rate housing (over 1,700 units)
• The one non-senior affordable housing project contained 16 students in 42 units.
• Older high-rise buildings also had low yields, though a few complexes contained children.
Development Name Address # of Units2005 OUSD
Students K-12 YieldSwans Market 1625 Clay St 42 0 0.00Phoenix Lofts 737 2nd St 21 0 0.00YWCA 1515 Webster St 50 0 0.00Gem Building Condos 485 8th St 16 1 0.06The Landing @ JLS 99 Embarcadero 282 0 0.00Allegro Lofts 240 3rd St 310 1 0.00New Market Lofts 201 4th St 46 0 0.00The Essex 108 17th St 270 0 0.008th and Castro Lofts Gerry Adams Way 18 0 0.00Telegraph Lofts 2633 Telegraph 53 1 0.02The Sierra @JLS 311 Oak St 229 0 0.00Landmark Place 1101-20 MLK Jr. Way 92 0 0.00Midtown 426 27th St/425 28th St 20 0 0.00The Telegraph 2401 Telegraph Ave 45 0 0.00Franklin 88 933 Franklin 88 0 0.00Market Square Ph 1 801-27 Clay St 116 0 0.00Total Market Rate Units 1698 3 0.002
Northgate Apts 2301 Northgate 42 16 0.38
Affordable Senior HousingOak St Terrace (seniors) 109 Oak St 39 0 0.00
Student Yields in Recently Constructed Developments
Affordable Development
Name Type Yr Built (approx) # Stories # of Units 2000-01 2001-02 2005-06 2000-01 2001-02 2005-06
1200 Lakeshore Apt 1964 25 172 4 3 1 0.02 0.02 0.01
244 Lakeside Dr Apt 1929 12 58 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
266 Lenox Apt n/a 7 36 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
286 Graystone Apt n/a 7 36 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
1555 Lakeside Dr Apt 1966 13 81 2 1 0 0.02 0.01 0.00
Regency Towers; 1130 3rd Ave Apt 1976 18 178 45 47 23 0.25 0.26 0.13
Subtotal (apts) 561 51 51 24 0.09 0.09 0.04
200 Lakeside Dr Condo 1881 8 39 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Van Buren Tower; 320 Lee St Condo 1962 12 68 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bellevue-Staten; 492 Staten Ave Condo 1929 15 36 1 0 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
412 8th St Condo 1971 13 328 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
177 19th St Condo 1959 12 55 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
565 Bellevue Condo 1969 25 152 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.01
Mayfair Apts; 400 Perkins St Condo 1929 6 60 2 2 0 0.03 0.03 0.00
Pacific Renaissance; 988 Franklin St Condo 1994 16 200 11 11 12 0.06 0.06 0.06
Subtotal (condos) 938 14 13 13 0.015 0.014 0.014
OUSD Student Yields in Older High Rises
K to 12 Students K-12 Student Yields
Key Assumptions in Forecasting Students from Downtown Development
• Percentage of units that will be “affordable”
• Student yield of market rate units
• Student yield of the affordable units
• Grade distribution of students from new housing
• Number and type of units built
Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 15% = 2,160
BMR Units Yield # Students2,160 x 0.4 = 864
Market Units Yield # Students12,240 x 0.03 = 367
Total 1,231
Medium Forecast
Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 5% = 720
BMR Units Yield # Students720 x 0.4 = 288
Market Units Yield # Students13,680 x 0.01 = 137
Total 425
Low Forecast
Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 15% = 2,160
BMR Units Yield # Students2,160 x 0.7 = 1,512
Market Units Yield # Students12,240 x 0.1 = 1,224
Total 2,736
High Forecast
Low Forecast Medium Forecast High Forecast
K to 5 60% 255 739 1,642
6 to 8 20% 85 246 547
9 to 12 20% 85 246 547
K to 12 100% 425 1,231 2,736
Possible Grade Distributions
Number of Students Assuming:
Accommodating Students in OUSD Facilities
• Do not assume that current facilities can accommodate students from new housing:
– Enrollments are probably low only temporarily
– Oak & 9th is isolated by the freeway and railroad tracks
– Some of the elementaries are now full, despite the recent decline
• If enrollments warrant it, Carter (and more of Lowell) middle school could be re-opened. Then McClymonds would have space for additional high school students, assuming the middle school students now served there return to middle school campuses.
• If the Medium and High forecast materializes, a plan is needed to house additional elementary students.
Summary
• OUSD has had abnormal enrollment declines, and now has very low enrollments. We do not yet know whether this year’s enrollments will continue this downward trend.
• Probably about 1,200 students will be generated from downtown housing, assuming that 15 percent of the units will be “affordable.”
• The District will want various contingency plans to decide how to accommodate the students from new development. The elementary enrollment increase may be the most difficult to handle.
Questions???