o. badiane director for africa - unu-wider · millet meals on the shelf traditional millet based...

O. Badiane

Director for Africa

Structural Transformationand Future Agro-industrialization

Strategies in Africa

Outline

❖Growth and Structural Transformation Process

❖Agricultural Growth and Structural Change

❖Patterns and Quality of Structural Change

❖Transformation of Agribusiness Value Chains

❖Implications for Industrialization Strategies

KEY MESSAGES

Two distinct phases of structural transformation

Productivity reducing structural change prior to recovery in 2000s

Strong positive structural change during recovery years

Stunting (rapid decline) of agriculture during decades of slow growth

Bloated (rapid expansion of) informal goods and services sector (IGS)

IGS is largest pool of low productivity labor

dual economy model (ag vs non-ag) no longer applicable

Three-dimensional model of industrialization is required

Outline






ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

COUNTRIES BECOME RICH BY PRODUCING MORE OUTPUT PER GIVEN WORKER

THIS INVOLVES PRODUCING MORE OF THE SAME GOOD

AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, PRODUCING A LARGER BASKET OF HIGHER VALUE GOODS

COUNTRIES ALSO BECOME RICH OVER TIME

STARTING FROM AN AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL BASE

MOVING TO AN URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL BASE

THE DOUBLE CHALLENGE OF MANAGING THE GROWTH PROCESS

RAISING PRODUCTIVITY IN THE AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL ECONOMY

WHILE DIVERSIFYING INTO HIGHER VALUE GOODS OUTSIDE OF AGRICULTURE

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DURING TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

WITHIN SECTOR GROWTHIncrease in output per worker resulting from innovation and investments in factors of production in individual sectors

GROWTH FROM STRUCTURAL CHANGEIncrease in output per worker resulting from labor moving out of lower into higher productivity sectors

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

Scope for productivity raising structural change in AfricaMoving labor from agriculture to non-agriculture

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Sec

tor-

rela

tiv

e la

bo

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y,

Eco

no

myw

ide

lab

or

pro

du

ctiv

ity =

10

0

Share of total employment (%)

Agriculture (62.3%) Personal services (6.1%) Trade services (16.2%)

Construction (2.8%) Manufacturing (7%) Transport services (2.7%)

Business services (2.6%) Utilities (0.5%) Mining (1.0%)

1,681

35 69111

162

484

325

171

422Economywide labor productivity = 100

Africa in 2010

Source: Diao, Harttgen and McMillan 2017.

Outline






Per-capita Income

low

High

Agricultural GDP per worker

Agricultural GDP

low high

AGRICULTURE IN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

Badiane (2014) bassed on Timmer (2009)

Per-capita Income

Share of agriculture in total labor force

Share of agriculture in total GDP

low

High

Agricultural GDP per worker

Agricultural GDP

low high

AGRICULTURE IN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROCESS

Badiane (2014) bassed on Timmer (2009)

(60)

(40)

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

Shar

e (%

)

Ag GDP Share

Ag Emp. Share

Difference

40 African Countries: 1960 - 2008

HISTORICALLY SLOW TRANSFORMATION PROOCESS IN AGRICULTURE

Source: Badiane (2014)

✓ Transformation process has been extremely slow✓ Difference between Ag employment and GDP shares almost constant

Stagnating Ag income + Rise in rural poverty

Outline






WITHIN SECTOR GROWTHIncrease in output per worker resulting from innovation and investments in factors of production in individual sectors

STRUCTURAL CHANGEIncrease in output per worker resulting from labor moving out of lower into higher productivity sectors

MEASURING STRUCTURAL CHANGE

-1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%

HI

ASIA

AFRICA

LAC

within structural

Decomposition of labor productivity growth: Africa vs other regions

Transformation performance lags significantly behind other regions

✓ Within sector contribution positive but very low✓ Structural change contribution negative and much larger

PRODUCTIVITY REDUCING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA BEFORE RECOVERY PERIOD (1990-1999)

Within Sector Contribution

Structural Change Contribution

Source: Badiane and McMillan (2016)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Ind

ex:1

98

0=1

00

Labor Productivity

Agriculture Non-agriculture

Source: Badiane (2014)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Shar

e (

%)

Share of Economically Active Population

With stagnating agriculture:Labor migrated to an non-agricultural sector with rapidly declining productivity

✓ Decline in totallabor productivity

✓ Rising poverty rates

STRUCLTURAL TRANSFORMATION NOT DRIVEN BY FASTER PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH OUTSIDE OF AGRICULTURE

40 African Countries: 1960 - 2008

Source: Oehmke, J. 2017

Rate of Growth 1996-2015

GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA

Africa performed better than BRICs and world average in last 20 years

Annual Agricultural Expenditure

Ag. Gross Domestic Product

+86%

+63%

GROWTH RECOVERY IN AFRICA

-1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%

HI

ASIA

AFRICA

LACwithin structural

Decomposition of labor productivity growth: Africa vs other regions

Transformation performance in Africa has improved markedly with onset of recovery

✓ Within sector contribution increased significantly✓ Structural change contribution went from negative to positive

PRODUCTIITY RAISING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA DURING RECOVERY PERIOD (POST 2000)

Within Sector Contribution

Structural Change Contribution

Source: Badiane and McMillan (2016)

STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA IS BASED ON SERVICES, NOT MANUFACTURING

Example of Ghana

Source: Jedwab and Osei, in McMillan et al (2017)

✓ Informal goods and services sector (IGS) largest in African economies

✓ It is the largest pool of low productivity labor

✓ Includes large share of proto-industrial handicrafts and processing

o Wood, leather, metal works

o Small mechanical and electrical parts

o Garments and tailoring

o Food staples processing

IMPLICATIONS OF POOR STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION PRIOR TO RECOVERY (1)

Traditional dual economy model of industrial policy based on agriculture vs industry no longer adequate

It is also agriculture vs. services, hence a three-dimensional

problem

Industrial policy should also focus on modernization of IGS, including nascent agro-processing sector thru:

o Product sophistication

o Firm maturation

o Enterprise growth

IMPLICATIONS OF POOR STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION PRIOR TO RECOVERY (2)

Outline






UNPROCESSED

PROCESSED

LOW VALUE

ADDED

PROCESSED

HIGH VALUE

ADDED

Non-Perishable

4x(8%)

5.5x(17%)

7x(23%)

Perishable 6.5x(20%)

8X(18%)

10X(15%)

THE RISE OF PROCESSED FOOD SECTORS

Projected Demand Growth 2010 – 2040 (Estimated Purchased Food Budget Share in 2040)

Source: Tschirley, D et al. 2014.

DEMAND GROWTH AND THE SCOPE FOR AGROINDUSTRIALIZATION IN AFRICA

1. TRADITIONAL MILLET VALUE IN SENEGAL

RAPDIDLY TRANSFORMING REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS

2. MILLET BASED MEALS


HOME BASEDMILLET PROCESSING

READY TO COOK

MILLET PRODCUTSON THE SHELF

3. THE NEW MILLET VALUE CHAIN


TRADITIONAL MILLET BASED MEALS


READY TO COOK




READY TO EAT

MILLET MEALS ON THE SHELF

TRADITIONAL MILLET BASED MEALS


READY TO COOK




Outline






No. of firms

Current characteristics of regional agro-allied industries• Rising number of firms producing the same low quality, often imitated goods

#

Time

EMERGING AGRO-ALLIED INDUSTRIAL SECTORProfitability, Growth And Maturation

Source: Badiane, and McMillan. 2016; Based on Otsuka and Sonobe (2011)

Profitability

No. of firms

Current characteristics of regional agro-allied industries• Rising number of firms producing the same low quality, often imitated goods

• As new entrants copy same products, profitability declines for everyone• No capacity to invest and innovate; stifling firm growth and maturation

$#

Time

EMERGING AGRO-ALLIED INDUSTRIAL SECTORProfitability, Growth And Maturation

Source: Badiane, O. and M. McMillan. 2016; Based on Otsuka and Sonobe (2011)

Two Key Questions

How to bend the profitability curve and escape from low and declining profits?How to promote enterprise growth through consolidation and specialization?

AGRO-ALLIED INDUSTRIALIZATION STRATEGIES


Profitability

No. of firms

Dotted (solid) lines denote progression of number of firms and profitability without

$#

Time

Profitability

No. of firms

Dotted (solid) lines denote progression of number of firms and profitability without

Three Priority Areas for Policy and Investment

A. Process and product innovation: Vocational training & Technology acquisitionB. Market development: Trade & competition policy, quality & standards

C. Cost of services and Infrastructure access: Power, Telecom, Transport

$#

Time

AGRO-ALLIED INDUSTRIALIZATION STRATEGIES


A. PRIORITY AREA 1: SKILLS DEVELOPMENT FOR PRODUCT AND PROCESS INNOVATION

① No skill upgrading for existing smallholder farmers

② No skill development for emerging value chain professions

▪ Machine operations and maintenance

▪ Processing technology skills

- Product and process innovations- Management and sales

▪ Packaging and distribution

▪ Food quality and safety

Absence of professional & vocational training opportunities means:

Potential agribusiness growth and expected income

to farmersUS$ billion

38

50

10 10.5

150

High value

exports

Commodities Urban food

2000

2030

2.9 1.6 30

Potential Increased

farmer income in

2030

Expected sector growth to 2030

Increase in Demand and Incomes in Billion US$

IFPRI/Badiane

Regional Trade In Staples: Major Source of Future Income Growth

+ $100B = Growth of staple food demand in urban markets in Africa

+ $30B = Potential income for smallholder farmers

B. PRIORITY AREA 2: TRADE & COMPETITION POLICIES FOR TRANSFORMING VALUE CHAINS

B. PRIORITY AREA 2: TRADE & COMPETITION POLICIES FOR TRANSFORMING VALUE CHAINS

Source: Badiane et al. 2014

Three policy options for competitive domestic value chains in regional markets

Notes: Notes: * COMESA+Tanzania. Figures on top of bars indicate cumulative increases in regional export supply in 1000 mt.

C. PRIORITY AREA 3: COST EFFECTIVE INFRASTRUCDTURE SERVICES

❑ Africa’s infrastructure gap is lowest in the Telecom Sector

❑ While investing in power and transport infrastructure

❑ Tap into Modern ICT to leapfrog

Torero, M. (2014)

Harness ICT for Quick Gains

USING ICT TO INNOVATE, CUT COST AND GO TO SCALE

① Lower cost of overcoming physical and institutional obstacles

▪ Bridge the distance to millions of dispersed smallholders

▪ Extend the reach of limited technical staff

② Lower cost of access to technology and services

▪ Tap into global knowledge networks

▪ Enable self-learning and peer-to-peer learning

③ Link smallholders to other value chain operators

▪ Traders, exporters, processors

▪ Financial services providers

▪ Technology services providers

How ICT can be leveraged for smallholder agriculture

REFERENCES

Badiane, O. 2014. “Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Africa.” In Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa, edited by W. P. Falcon and R. L. Naylor. Stanford, CA, US: Stanford University, Center on Food Security and the Environment. Printed by CreateSpace.

Badiane, O. and T. Makombe (Eds). Beyond a Middle Income Africa: Transforming African Economies for Sustained Growth with Rising Employment and Incomes. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report.

Badiane, O., and T. Makombe. 2015. “Agriculture, Growth, and Development in Africa: Theory and Practice.” In Oxford Handbook of Africa and Economics, Vol. 2, edited by C. Monga and J. Lin. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Badiane, O. and McMillan, M. 2016. Economic transformation in Africa: Patterns, drivers, and implications for future growth strategies. In Badiane, O. and T. Makombe (Eds). Beyond a Middle Income Africa: Transforming African Economies for Sustained Growth with Rising Employment and Incomes. ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report.

McMillan, M. S., D. Rodrik and C. Sepulveda. 2017. Structural Change, Fundamentals and Growth: A framework and Case Studies. International Food Policy Research Institute. Washington DC.

Sonobe, T., and K. Otsuka. 2006. Cluster-Based Industrial Development: An East Asian Model. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Sonobe, T., and K. Otsuka. 2011. Cluster-Based Industrial Development: A Comparative Study of Asia and Africa. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Timmer, P. 2009. A World without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation Process in Historical Perspective. Washington DC: American Enterprise Institute Press. Also available as Timmer, T., and S. Akkus. 2008. The Structural Transformation as Pathway from Poverty: Analytics, Empirics, and Politics. Working Paper No. 150. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.

o. badiane director for africa - unu-wider · millet meals on the shelf traditional millet based...

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